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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Authors :
Wang, H Wolock, TM Carter, A Nguyen, G Kyu, HH Gakidou, E Hay, SI Mills, EJ Trickey, A Msemburi, W Coates, MM Mooney, MD Fraser, MS Sligar, A Salomon, J Larson, HJ Friedman, J Abajobir, AA Abate, KH Abbas, KM Abd El Razek, MM Abd-Allah, F Abdulle, AM Abera, SF Abubakar, I Abu-Raddad, LJ Abu-Rmeileh, NME Abyu, GY Adebiyi, AO Adedeji, IA Adelekan, AL Adofo, K Adou, AK Ajala, ON Akinyemiju, TF Akseer, N Al Lami, FH Al-Aly, Z Alam, K Alam, NKM Alasfoor, D Aldhahri, SFS Aldridge, RW Alegretti, MA Aleman, AV Alemu, ZA Alfonso-Cristancho, R Ali, R Alkerwi, A Alla, F Al-Raddadi, RMS Alsharif, U Alvarez, E Alvis-Guzman, N Amare, AT Amberbir, A Amegah, AK Ammar, W Amrock, SM Antonio, CAT Anwari, P Arnlov, J Al, A Asayesh, H Asghar, RJ Assadi, R Atique, S Atkins, LS Avokpaho, EFGA Awasthi, A Quintanilla, BPA Bacha, U Badawi, A Barac, A Barnighausen, T Basu, A Bayou, TA Bayou, YT Bazargan-Hejazi, S Beardsley, J Bedi, N Bennett, DA Bensenor, IM Betsu, BD Beyene, AS Bhatia, E Bhutta, ZA Biadgilign, S Bikbov, B Birlik, SM Bisanzio, D Brainin, M Brazinova, A Breitborde, NJK Brown, A Burch, M Butt, ZA Campuzano, JC Cardenas, R Carrero, JJ Castaneda-Orjuela, CA Rivas, JC Catala-Lopez, F Chang, H-Y Chang, J-C Chavan, L Chen, W Chiang, PP-C Chibalabala, M Chisumpa, VH Choi, J-YJ Christopher, DJ Ciobanu, LG Cooper, C Dahiru, T Damtew, SA Dandona, L Dandona, R das Neves, J de Jager, P De Leo, D Degenhardt, L Dellavalle, RP Deribe, K Deribew, A Jarlais, DCD Dharmaratne, SD Ding, EL Doshi, PP Driscoll, TR Dubey, M Elshrek, YM Elyazar, I Endries, AY Ermakov, SP Eshrati, B Esteghamati, A Faghmous, IDA Sofia e Sa Farinha, C Faro, A Farvid, MS Farzadfar, F Fereshtehnejad, S-M Fernandes, JC Fischer, F Fitchett, JRA Foigt, N Fullman, N Furst, T Gankpe, FG Gebre, T Gebremedhin, AT Gebru, AA Geleijnse, JM Gessner, BD Gething, PW Ghiwot, TT Giroud, M Gishu, MD Glaser, E Goenka, S Goodridge, A Gopalani, SV Goto, A Gugnani, HC Guimaraes, MDC Gupta, R Gupta, V Haagsma, J Hafezi-Nejad, N Hagan, H Hailu, GB Hamadeh, RR Hamidi, S Hammami, M Hankey, GJ Hao, Y Harb, HL Harikrishnan, S Haro, JM Harun, KM Havmoeller, R Hedayati, MT Heredia-Pi, IB Hoek, HW Horino, M Horita, N Hosgood, HD Hoy, DG Hsairi, M Hu, G Huang, H Huang, JJ Iburg, KM Idrisov, BT Innos, K Iyer, VJ Jacobsen, KH Jahanmehr, N Jakovljevic, MB Javanbakht, M Jayatilleke, AU Jeemon, P Jha, V Jiang, G Jiang, Y Jibat, T Jonas, JB Kabir, Z Kamal, R Kan, H Karch, A Karema, CK Karletsos, D Kasaeian, A Kaul, A Kawakami, N Kayibanda, JF Keiyoro, PN Kemp, AH Kengne, AP Kesavachandran, CN Khader, YS Khalil, I Khan, AR Khan, EA Khang, Y-H Khubchandani, J Kim, YJ Kinfu, Y Kivipelto, M Kokubo, Y Kosen, S Koul, PA Koyanagi, A Defo, BK Bicer, BK Kulkarni, VS Kumar, GA Lal, DK Lam, H Lam, JO Langan, SM Lansingh, VC Larsson, A Leigh, J Leung, R Li, Y Lim, SS Lipshultz, SE Liu, S Lloyd, BK Logroscino, G Lotufo, PA Lunevicius, R Abd El Razek, HM Mahdavi, M Majdan, M Majeed, A Makhlouf, C Malekzadeh, R Mapoma, CC Marcenes, W Martinez-Raga, J Marzan, MB Masiye, F Mason-Jones, AJ Mayosi, BM Mckee, M Meaney, PA Mehndiratta, MM Mekonnen, AB Melaku, YA Memiah, P Memish, ZA Mendoza, W Meretoja, A Meretoja, TJ Mhimbira, FA Miller, TR Mikesell, J Mirarefin, M Mohammad, KA Mohammed, S Mokdad, AH Monasta, L Moradi-Lakeh, M Mori, R Mueller, UO Murimira, B Murthy, GVS Naheed, A Naldi, L Nangia, V Nash, D Nawaz, H Nejjari, C Ngalesoni, FN Ngirabega, JDD Quyen, LN Nisar, MI Norheim, OF Norman, RE Nyakarahuka, L Ogbo, FA Oh, I-H Ojelabi, FA Olusanya, BO Olusanya, JO Opio, JN Oren, E Ota, E Padukudru, MA Park, H-Y Park, J-H Patil, ST Patten, SB Paul, VK Pearson, K Peprah, EK Pereira, DM Perico, N Pesudovs, K Petzold, M Phillips, MR Pillay, JD Plass, D Polinder, S Pourmalek, F Prokop, DM Qorbani, M Rafay, A Rahimi, K Rahimi-Movaghar, V Rahman, M Rahman, MHU Rahman, SU Rai, RK Rajsic, S Ram, U Rana, SM Rao, PV Remuzzi, G Rojas-Rueda, D Ronfani, L Roshandel, G Roy, A Ruhago, GM Saeedi, MY Sagar, R Saleh, MM Sanabria, JR Santos, IS Sarmiento-Suarez, R Sartorius, B Sawhney, M Schutte, AE Schwebel, DC Seedat, S Sepanlou, SG Servan-Mori, EE Shaikh, MA Sharma, R She, J Sheikhbahaei, S Shen, J Shibuya, K Shin, HH Sigfusdottir, ID Silpakit, N Santos Silva, DA Alves Silveira, DG Simard, EP Sindi, S Singh, JA Singh, OP Singh, PK Skirbekk, V Sliwa, K Soneji, S Sorensen, RJD Soriano, JB Soti, DO Sreeramareddy, CT Stathopoulou, V Steel, N Sunguya, BF Swaminathan, S Sykes, BL Tabares-Seisdedos, R Talongwa, RT Tavakkoli, M Taye, B Tedla, BA Tekle, T Shifa, GT Temesgen, AM Terkawi, AS Tesfay, FH Tessema, GA Thapa, K Thomson, AJ Thorne-Lyman, AL Tobe-Gai, R Topor-Madry, R Towbin, JA Bach, XT Dimbuene, ZT Tsilimparis, N Tura, AK Ukwaja, KN Uneke, CJ Uthman, OA Venketasubramanian, N Vladimirov, SK Vlassov, VV Vollset, SE Wang, L Weiderpass, E Weintraub, RG Werdecker, A Westerman, R Wijeratne, T Wilkinson, JD Wiysonge, CS Wolfe, CDA Won, S Wong, JQ Xu, G Yadav, AK Yakob, B Yalew, AZ Yano, Y Yaseri, M Yebyo, HG Yip, P Yonemoto, N Yoon, S-J Younis, MZ Yu, C Yu, S Zaidi, Z Zaki, MES Zeeb, H Zhang, H Zhao, Y Zodpey, S Zoeckler, L Zuhlke, LJ Lopez, AD Murray, CJL Wang, H Wolock, TM Carter, A Nguyen, G Kyu, HH Gakidou, E Hay, SI Mills, EJ Trickey, A Msemburi, W Coates, MM Mooney, MD Fraser, MS Sligar, A Salomon, J Larson, HJ Friedman, J Abajobir, AA Abate, KH Abbas, KM Abd El Razek, MM Abd-Allah, F Abdulle, AM Abera, SF Abubakar, I Abu-Raddad, LJ Abu-Rmeileh, NME Abyu, GY Adebiyi, AO Adedeji, IA Adelekan, AL Adofo, K Adou, AK Ajala, ON Akinyemiju, TF Akseer, N Al Lami, FH Al-Aly, Z Alam, K Alam, NKM Alasfoor, D Aldhahri, SFS Aldridge, RW Alegretti, MA Aleman, AV Alemu, ZA Alfonso-Cristancho, R Ali, R Alkerwi, A Alla, F Al-Raddadi, RMS Alsharif, U Alvarez, E Alvis-Guzman, N Amare, AT Amberbir, A Amegah, AK Ammar, W Amrock, SM Antonio, CAT Anwari, P Arnlov, J Al, A Asayesh, H Asghar, RJ Assadi, R Atique, S Atkins, LS Avokpaho, EFGA Awasthi, A Quintanilla, BPA Bacha, U Badawi, A Barac, A Barnighausen, T Basu, A Bayou, TA Bayou, YT Bazargan-Hejazi, S Beardsley, J Bedi, N Bennett, DA Bensenor, IM Betsu, BD Beyene, AS Bhatia, E Bhutta, ZA Biadgilign, S Bikbov, B Birlik, SM Bisanzio, D Brainin, M Brazinova, A Breitborde, NJK Brown, A Burch, M Butt, ZA Campuzano, JC Cardenas, R Carrero, JJ Castaneda-Orjuela, CA Rivas, JC Catala-Lopez, F Chang, H-Y Chang, J-C Chavan, L Chen, W Chiang, PP-C Chibalabala, M Chisumpa, VH Choi, J-YJ Christopher, DJ Ciobanu, LG Cooper, C Dahiru, T Damtew, SA Dandona, L Dandona, R das Neves, J de Jager, P De Leo, D Degenhardt, L Dellavalle, RP Deribe, K Deribew, A Jarlais, DCD Dharmaratne, SD Ding, EL Doshi, PP Driscoll, TR Dubey, M Elshrek, YM Elyazar, I Endries, AY Ermakov, SP Eshrati, B Esteghamati, A Faghmous, IDA Sofia e Sa Farinha, C Faro, A Farvid, MS Farzadfar, F Fereshtehnejad, S-M Fernandes, JC Fischer, F Fitchett, JRA Foigt, N Fullman, N Furst, T Gankpe, FG Gebre, T Gebremedhin, AT Gebru, AA Geleijnse, JM Gessner, BD Gething, PW Ghiwot, TT Giroud, M Gishu, MD Glaser, E Goenka, S Goodridge, A Gopalani, SV Goto, A Gugnani, HC Guimaraes, MDC Gupta, R Gupta, V Haagsma, J Hafezi-Nejad, N Hagan, H Hailu, GB Hamadeh, RR Hamidi, S Hammami, M Hankey, GJ Hao, Y Harb, HL Harikrishnan, S Haro, JM Harun, KM Havmoeller, R Hedayati, MT Heredia-Pi, IB Hoek, HW Horino, M Horita, N Hosgood, HD Hoy, DG Hsairi, M Hu, G Huang, H Huang, JJ Iburg, KM Idrisov, BT Innos, K Iyer, VJ Jacobsen, KH Jahanmehr, N Jakovljevic, MB Javanbakht, M Jayatilleke, AU Jeemon, P Jha, V Jiang, G Jiang, Y Jibat, T Jonas, JB Kabir, Z Kamal, R Kan, H Karch, A Karema, CK Karletsos, D Kasaeian, A Kaul, A Kawakami, N Kayibanda, JF Keiyoro, PN Kemp, AH Kengne, AP Kesavachandran, CN Khader, YS Khalil, I Khan, AR Khan, EA Khang, Y-H Khubchandani, J Kim, YJ Kinfu, Y Kivipelto, M Kokubo, Y Kosen, S Koul, PA Koyanagi, A Defo, BK Bicer, BK Kulkarni, VS Kumar, GA Lal, DK Lam, H Lam, JO Langan, SM Lansingh, VC Larsson, A Leigh, J Leung, R Li, Y Lim, SS Lipshultz, SE Liu, S Lloyd, BK Logroscino, G Lotufo, PA Lunevicius, R Abd El Razek, HM Mahdavi, M Majdan, M Majeed, A Makhlouf, C Malekzadeh, R Mapoma, CC Marcenes, W Martinez-Raga, J Marzan, MB Masiye, F Mason-Jones, AJ Mayosi, BM Mckee, M Meaney, PA Mehndiratta, MM Mekonnen, AB Melaku, YA Memiah, P Memish, ZA Mendoza, W Meretoja, A Meretoja, TJ Mhimbira, FA Miller, TR Mikesell, J Mirarefin, M Mohammad, KA Mohammed, S Mokdad, AH Monasta, L Moradi-Lakeh, M Mori, R Mueller, UO Murimira, B Murthy, GVS Naheed, A Naldi, L Nangia, V Nash, D Nawaz, H Nejjari, C Ngalesoni, FN Ngirabega, JDD Quyen, LN Nisar, MI Norheim, OF Norman, RE Nyakarahuka, L Ogbo, FA Oh, I-H Ojelabi, FA Olusanya, BO Olusanya, JO Opio, JN Oren, E Ota, E Padukudru, MA Park, H-Y Park, J-H Patil, ST Patten, SB Paul, VK Pearson, K Peprah, EK Pereira, DM Perico, N Pesudovs, K Petzold, M Phillips, MR Pillay, JD Plass, D Polinder, S Pourmalek, F Prokop, DM Qorbani, M Rafay, A Rahimi, K Rahimi-Movaghar, V Rahman, M Rahman, MHU Rahman, SU Rai, RK Rajsic, S Ram, U Rana, SM Rao, PV Remuzzi, G Rojas-Rueda, D Ronfani, L Roshandel, G Roy, A Ruhago, GM Saeedi, MY Sagar, R Saleh, MM Sanabria, JR Santos, IS Sarmiento-Suarez, R Sartorius, B Sawhney, M Schutte, AE Schwebel, DC Seedat, S Sepanlou, SG Servan-Mori, EE Shaikh, MA Sharma, R She, J Sheikhbahaei, S Shen, J Shibuya, K Shin, HH Sigfusdottir, ID Silpakit, N Santos Silva, DA Alves Silveira, DG Simard, EP Sindi, S Singh, JA Singh, OP Singh, PK Skirbekk, V Sliwa, K Soneji, S Sorensen, RJD Soriano, JB Soti, DO Sreeramareddy, CT Stathopoulou, V Steel, N Sunguya, BF Swaminathan, S Sykes, BL Tabares-Seisdedos, R Talongwa, RT Tavakkoli, M Taye, B Tedla, BA Tekle, T Shifa, GT Temesgen, AM Terkawi, AS Tesfay, FH Tessema, GA Thapa, K Thomson, AJ Thorne-Lyman, AL Tobe-Gai, R Topor-Madry, R Towbin, JA Bach, XT Dimbuene, ZT Tsilimparis, N Tura, AK Ukwaja, KN Uneke, CJ Uthman, OA Venketasubramanian, N Vladimirov, SK Vlassov, VV Vollset, SE Wang, L Weiderpass, E Weintraub, RG Werdecker, A Westerman, R Wijeratne, T Wilkinson, JD Wiysonge, CS Wolfe, CDA Won, S Wong, JQ Xu, G Yadav, AK Yakob, B Yalew, AZ Yano, Y Yaseri, M Yebyo, HG Yip, P Yonemoto, N Yoon, S-J Younis, MZ Yu, C Yu, S Zaidi, Z Zaki, MES Zeeb, H Zhang, H Zhao, Y Zodpey, S Zoeckler, L Zuhlke, LJ Lopez, AD Murray, CJL
Publication Year :
2016
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 mi
Details
Database :
OAIster
Publication Type :
Electronic Resource
Accession number :
edsoai.on1315723946
Document Type :
Electronic Resource