Agricultural intensification during the Late Holocene rather than climatic aridification drives the population dynamics and the current conservation status of Microtus cabrerae, an endangered Mediterranean rodent

Aim Disentangling the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic factors is crucial in conservation biology but problematic using short‐term data only. Long‐term (palaeobiological) data are thus increasingly being used to understand taxon history and to identify potential status and baseline (pre‐anthropogenic) conditions, which in turn allows the optimization of species conservation plans. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with current and palaeo‐occurrences of Microtus cabrerae, a threatened Mediterranean rodent, to circumvent the limitations of the palaeorecord (e.g. spatio‐temporal bias), to characterize this rodent's history (potential status and baseline conditions) since the Mid‐Holocene (~6,000 yr BP), and to determine the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic factors in its decline.