Geospatial risk analysis of mosquito-borne disease vectors in the Netherlands

The availability of data on distribution and density of mosquito vectors of disease is needed to understand the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. In case of an outbreak of a newly introduced mosquito-borne pathogen of medical or veterinary importance, such information is required in order to decide on a contingency and eventual control plan. In the recent decade, several exotic mosquito species have become established in European countries and they have rapidly expanded their distribution. The rationale for the present study was the increasingly frequent reporting of invasive mosquito species (IMS) in the Netherlands, some of which are known vectors of infectious diseases, as well as the lack of detailed knowledge on the spatio-temporal distribution of the indigenous mosquito fauna. The aim was therefore to develop methodologies for acquiring accurate information on the actual and potential distribution of indigenous and exotic mosquito species in the Netherlands, and to evaluate the surveillance and control methodologies applied after IMS findings. To establish a baseline for the spatio-temporal distribution of the indigenous mosquito fauna present in the Netherlands, a survey was conducted at the start of the study. Cross-sectional mosquito field surveys were carried out over a period of four years (2010-2013). These surveys provided occurrence maps for 26 indigenous species. One invasive mosquito species, Aedes japonicus, was discovered using this strategy. Furthermore, data on seasonality of the species, biodiversity and habitat preferences were also provided. Using the collected data on occurrence and abundance, a special study using random forest models was done to investigate the potential spatial distribution and population density of Anopheles plumbeus, a native nuisance mosquito species. I found a high environmental suitability and abundance of this species in the south-eastern provinces, mostly associated with abandoned pig farm buildings, and reports of b