Now and Never: Banning Hydrocarbon Extraction in Antarctica Forever

The Glasgow Climate Pact called the 2020s a "critical decade" for still meeting the Paris Agreement targets. Initiatives aimed at leaving fossil fuel deposits in the ground have not extended to Antarctica, with massive untapped deposits. There is a compelling case for converting the present general moratorium on Antarctic mineral resource activity, potentially subject to review from 2048, into an explicit prohibition of hydrocarbon extraction now. Resource interests have been at the centre of Antarctic diplomacy for decades, in no small part because of their entanglement with questions around "frozen" sovereignty claims. Global power shifts and increased geopolitical rivalries, especially in the context of the rise of China, regarding Antarctic affairs have given these debates new intensity. To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, current assessments are that some 60 per cent of proven hydrocarbon reserves need to remain in the ground. There is, accordingly, a compelling case for never commencing hydrocarbon-extraction activities in Antarctica, where they are presently covered within the wider minerals prohibition. Rather than waiting for 2048, states should explicitly unilaterally commit now to never commence hydrocarbon extraction in Antarctica. This decision should be taken by individual states and by the decision-making Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties as a community, now. A forever ban on hydrocarbon extraction in Antarctica could also reduce the basis for geopolitical contention around resource access to a continent twice the size of Australia and where territorial sovereignty remains unresolved. As host of the 44th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) from 23 May to 2 June 2022 in Berlin, Germany has a "once in 30 years" opportunity to facilitate a forever ban on hydrocarbon extraction in Antarctica as an important signal for revitalised Antarctic high-level diplomacy as well as for enhanced global cooperation on climate action. This requires h