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SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy

Authors :
Giovanetti, Marta
Cella, Eleonora
Benedetti, Francesca
Rife Magalis, Brittany
Fonseca, Vagner
Fabris, Silvia
Campisi, Giovanni
Ciccozzi, Alessandra
Angeletti, Silvia
Borsetti, Alessandra
Tambone, Vittoradolfo
Sagnelli, Caterina
Pascarella, Stefano
Riva, Alberto
Ceccarelli, Giancarlo
Marcello, Alessandro
Azarian, Taj
Wilkinson, Eduan
de Oliveira, Tulio
Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior
Cauda, Roberto
Caruso, Arnaldo
Dean, Natalie E
Browne, Cameron
Lourenco, Jose
Salemi, Marco
Zella, Davide
Ciccozzi, Massimo
Cauda, Roberto (ORCID:0000-0002-1498-4229)
Giovanetti, Marta
Cella, Eleonora
Benedetti, Francesca
Rife Magalis, Brittany
Fonseca, Vagner
Fabris, Silvia
Campisi, Giovanni
Ciccozzi, Alessandra
Angeletti, Silvia
Borsetti, Alessandra
Tambone, Vittoradolfo
Sagnelli, Caterina
Pascarella, Stefano
Riva, Alberto
Ceccarelli, Giancarlo
Marcello, Alessandro
Azarian, Taj
Wilkinson, Eduan
de Oliveira, Tulio
Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior
Cauda, Roberto
Caruso, Arnaldo
Dean, Natalie E
Browne, Cameron
Lourenco, Jose
Salemi, Marco
Zella, Davide
Ciccozzi, Massimo
Cauda, Roberto (ORCID:0000-0002-1498-4229)
Publication Year :
2021

Abstract

We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.Giovanetti et al. examine SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. They present evidence to suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may influence vaccination programmes.

Details

Database :
OAIster
Notes :
English
Publication Type :
Electronic Resource
Accession number :
edsoai.on1382659810
Document Type :
Electronic Resource