A multi-isotope and modelling approach for constraining hydro-connectivity in the East African Rift System, southern Ethiopia

During the last African Humid Period (AHP; 15-5 ka), many lakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) experienced pronounced lake-level variations that dramatically transformed the hydrological landscape. Currently dry, saline or marshy-wetland terminal lakes became vast waterbodies, interconnected via overflow sills resulting in the formation of a several thousand-kilometre-long chain of lakes in the EARS. A quantitative, process-based understanding of these hydrological systems can advance our interpretation of past hydroclimate variability from proxy records. Here, we provide a critical modern hydrological dataset for the data-sparse Lake Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia. Driven by modern data, an isotope-enabled hydro-balance model was developed to assess how increases in rainfall modulate delta O-18 and Sr-87/Sr-86 variability. Considering a terminal Lake Chew Bahir scenario, humid conditions resulted in higher lake delta O-18 (similar to+14 parts per thousand) due to increased evaporation and longer water residence times. At the same time Sr-87/Sr-86 Sr decreased from 0.7064 to 0.7061 due to an increased riverine Sr flux characterised by lower, unradiogenic Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios. In a modelling scenario where Lake Chew Bahir became a flow-through system with interconnectivity between lakes Abaya, Chamo, Chew Bahir and Turkana, higher lake delta O-18 (similar to+12 parts per thousand) relative to present was found, but 8 18 0 was lower than in the terminal lake scenario. The lake water Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios (<0.7061) were also slightly lower. A moderate concomitant change in rainfall input delta O-18 of similar to 1 parts per thousand in step with hydrological reorganisation resulted in the lowest lake delta O-18 (similar to+5 parts per thousand). Modelled delta O-18 values were similar to the delta O-18 range of endogenic carbonates from sedimentary cores from Lake Chew Bahir at the onset of the AHP, supporting the validity of our model, and suggesting that ev