Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost Analysis for the Construction and Maintenance of Reinforced Concrete Structures

This study develops a probabilistic framework that can estimate the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) of reinforced concrete (RC) structures under various construction and maintenance scenarios. This paper first describes a chloride-induced deterioration model to predict the service-life of RC structures. Then, the Monte-Carlo Simulation method is applied to the deterioration model and subsequent LCC estimation to assess the uncertainties of input variables probabilistically. This paper also discusses a case study in which the probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) framework is applied to a RC viaduct. The case study compares the potential ranges of LCC among eight different life-cycle scenarios. This study suggests that the developed probabilistic LCCA framework can be used as an effective decision-making method to identify the most cost-effective life-cycle scenario of RC structures, while reflecting the risk-attitude of the decision-maker.