Comparison of the Impact between Classical and Novel Strains of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease on Wild Rabbit Populations in Spain

The outbreaks of two strains of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) (GI.1 and GI.2) in the Iberian Peninsula have caused substantial economic losses in commercial rabbitries and have affected the conservation of rabbit-sensitive predators due to the dramatic decline of their natural populations. However, the assessment of the impact of both RHD strains on wild rabbit populations has been limited to a few small-scale studies. Little is known about the overall impact within its native range. In this study, we described and compared the effects of GI.1 and GI.2 countrywide by using time series of hunting bag data widely available across the country and compared their trend during the first eight years after the first outbreak of GI.1 (i.e., 1998) and GI.2 (i.e., 2011), respectively. We used Gaussian generalised additive models (GAM) with the number of hunted rabbits as the response variable and year as the predictor to evaluate the non-linear temporal dynamics of the population at the national and regional community levels. The first GI.1 caused a population decline of around 53%, affecting most Spanish regional communities where the disease occurred. The positive trend observed after GI.1 in Spain ended with the initial outbreak of GI.2, which did not appear to cause a national population decline. In contrast, we found significant variability in the rabbit population trend among regional communities, where some increased, and others decreased. Such a disparity is unlikely to be explained by a single factor; rather, it appears to result from several factors, such as climatic conditions, host resistance improvement, virulence attenuation, or population density. Our study suggests that a national comprehensive hunting bag series could aid in elucidating the differences in the impact of emerging diseases on a large scale. Future research should focus on national longitudinal serological studies to shed light on the immunological status of rabbit populations in different reg