Study on the Relationship Between the Number of Adverse Drug Reactions of Essential Drugs and Visits: Based on Vector Autoregressive Model

Wan Tang,1,2 Hongdou Chen,1,2 Zixin Zhang,1,2 Gang Wu,1,2 Yanquan Lin1– 3 1Pharmacy, Suqian Hospital of Nanjing Drum-Tower Hospital Group, Suqian, People’s Republic of China; 2Pharmacy, Affiliated Suqian Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Suqian, People’s Republic of China; 3Pharmacy, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Hongdou Chen, Email chenhongdou2000@aliyun.comObjective: To analyse the relationship between the adverse drug reactions (ADRs) of essential drugs and visits, based on the recorded annual increase in ADRs associated with essential medicines in China, to provide a reliable theoretical basis for further analysis and optimization of the safety of essential drugs.Methods: The data of adverse reactions of essential drugs in China from 2011 to 2020, time series analysis was conducted, and vector autoregressive (VAR) model was established. The relationship between the number of ADRs and visits was explored empirically through Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition.Results: There was a long-term cointegration relationship and one-way causality between the number of visits and ADRs caused by essential medicines. In the initial stage, the ADR response to the number of visits increased sharply, but with an increase in the number of lag periods, the impact remained basically stable, even showing a slight decreasing trend.Conclusion: The number of visits impacts ADRs caused by essential medicines, but this impact remains basically stable after reaching a certain level.Keywords: essential medicines, adverse drug reactions, vector autoregressive model, time-series analysis