Development of a bottom-up white-box building stock energy model for single-family dwellings

A new bottom-up white-box building stock energy modelling approach is presented in this paper. The model is a physics simulation-based stock model that can be used to compare the base case building stock with technological variations for comparative assessments. The model accuracy is compared to known stock data for a variety of categories, including end-use, energy source and building type. The model predicts the energy use of a building stock in a Canadian region with good agreement across all categories, with the total energy consumption of the model within 1.5% of the real stock energy use. Our analysis shows that modelling a sufficiently large sample of stock is required to reduce the expected deviation for lesser-represented portions of the stock. A case study illustrates how the model can be applied to compare different heating system distributions, in order to assess their impact on greenhouse gas emissions and peak electricity demand.