Model projections reveal a recent decrease in a yellow-legged gull population after landfill closure

The food available in open-air landfills, one of the most common predictable anthropogenic food subsidies (PAFS), can have a profound impact on animal biodiversity. Understanding how and to what extent PAFS affect wildlife is crucial for a sustainable management of resources. Most large gulls behave as opportunistic foragers and constitute a good avian model to analyze the effect of PAFS reduction on animal populations. Using individual data from a yellow-legged gull population of the Basque coast (northern Iberia) collected over a 15-year period, we estimated survival and reproductive parameters and used them to parameterize an age-structured population model to explore the effects of the local landfill closure. Local survival probability declined with time as a consequence of the progressive closure of the local landfill sites. The top-ranked models included a quadratic function of time, suggesting an acceleration of mortality during the later years, especially in juveniles, while survival in adults was linear. An effect more pronounced in first year birds than in older birds. Population models predict a decrease of the population and confirmed a greater sensitivity of the population growth rate to adult survival probability. Overall, our results suggest that the reduced carrying capacity of the system resulted after landfill closures have caused a population decline which is expected to continue in the near future.