A scenario- guided strategy for the futuremanagement of biological invasions

Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple social–ecological drivers. We useda scenario-based approach to explore potential management options for invasive species in Europe. During two workshops involv-ing a multidisciplinary team of experts, we developed a management strategy arranged into 19 goals relating to policy, research,public awareness, and biosecurity. We conceived solutions for achieving these goals under different plausible future scenarios, andidentified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing invasive species can be struc-tured: a European biosecurity regime, a dedicated communication strategy, data standardization and managementtools, and a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we assessed the feasibility of the management strategy and found sub-stantial differences among scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate that it is time for a new strategy for managing biologicalinvasions in Europe, one that is based on a more integrative approach across socioeconomic sectors and countries