Projections of Future Demand and Costs of Aged Care Services in China

The growing demand for aged care services has become a pressing challenge worldwide. However, the future changes in demand for aged care services and the corresponding socioeconomic consequences in rapidly aging societies are not yet adequately understood. To achieve a better understanding of the future demand for aged care services, this study provides a set of comprehensive projections of the scale of demand for aged care services and the associated economic burdens between 2010 and 2050 in the context of China. Using a research framework based on the life cycle approach and a modified Personal Social Services Research Unit model, the study projects that the size of Chinese elderly population (i.e., aged ≥ 60) demanding aged care services will grow considerably, reaching 127.4 million in 2050 and costing 2.6 trillion yuan (or 1.01% of Chinese gross domestic product). Home-/community-based care services will be the form of aged care most in demand by the 70.21 million Chinese elderly people in 2050, and the most needed types of aged care services will be feeding assistance. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that demand for and costs of aged care services are sensitive to the assumptions about patterns of elderly disability and the prices of aged care services. The projected growth in the future demand and costs of aged care services warrants more heightened attention from Chinese policymakers and providers of aged care services. The implications for other rapidly aging societies are also discussed.