Estimation of Teacher Leaving and Hiring Rates. Educational Planning Occasional Papers No. 7/72.

To fully develop a teacher cost model, it is essential to be able to forecast the number of teachers that leave the experience category distribution -- not only the total number that leave, but also the number that leave from each category and experience level within the distribution. Similarly, it is essential to be able to forecast, to the same detail, the number of teachers that change from one category to another. The set of algorithms presented here describes the methods that have been used in the estimation of these variables. Attempts are being made to improve these algorithms. For example, it would be desirable to incorporate the availability of summer school courses, and therefore the capacity for upgrading teacher qualifications, in the change of category rates. Also, hiring rates by category and experience should change relative to the supply and demand of teachers of various qualifications and experience. Related documents are EA 005 253 and EA 005 254. (Author)