Effective Use of Models in the Decision Processes: Theory Grounded in Three Case Studies. AIR Forum 1982 Paper.

The technical, social, and procedural phenomena that facilitate the effective utilization of analytic models in decision-making are examined. Attention is focused on the theoretical issues associated with: (1) selection and fit of the model to the needs of the decision setting; (2) human factors such as cognitive style and the political climate surrounding the decision participants; and (3) the role of the model on the decision process. Theoretical concepts are illustrated by examples from three applications of a single health science curriculum cost construction model. A central thesis is that models must be adapted to the conditions of the decision setting and the characteristics of the problem to ensure utilization. Model technology must be appropriate to the decision, feasible in terms of practicalities, and of demonstrated validity. Issues relating to individual attitudes and organizational norms are best addressed through building the client/consultant relationship and through the careful early diagnosis of the setting. Since a model can assume a variety of roles in the decision process, client/consultant expectations must be clarified on the stage at which the model will be used, how it will be used, and by whom. The development in the late 1970s of a curriculum cost construction model is described. It was developed by consultants for the University of Michigan School of Pharmacy, and then university staff developed similar models for the School of Nursing and the Program in Physical Therapy. Attention is directed to factors in the utilization of mathematical models and model characteristics required by various decision types. (Author/SW)