Emerging Asian Economics.

What we can expect in the future from the miracle economies of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, whether they pose a threat to the older industrial states of Western Europe and North American, and whether China is to be the next emerging Asian economy are discussed. The amazing economic recovery of these East Asian countries demonstrates that it is possible for modern industrial economies to emerge in a situation of adverse ratios of population to land area and to natural resources. However, economic miracles cannot be prolonged indefinitely. Japan's experience is instructive--Japan's economy has settled down to a rate of growth on average higher but not startlingly higher than that of other advanced countries. The sources of economic growth are subject to change and to erosion over time. A similar slowing of economic growth will likely occur in these other Asian miracle countries. To believe that exports from countries that have ample supplies of low wage labor and access to advanced technology will overwhelm established American and European industries is to believe in fairy tales. It is not beyond possibility that China will become another Taiwan in GNP growth and another Japan as an exporter. (RM)