Validation of the Benefit Forecasting Method: Organization Development Program to Increase Health Organization Membership. Training and Development Research Center, Project Number Eleven.

This project is the sixth in a series of studies designed to validate the Training and Development Benefit Forecasting Method (BFM) sponsored by the Training and Development Research Center (TDRC) at the University of Minnesota. The purpose of this study was to validate the BFM's ability to forecast the benefits of an organization development program for salaried employees in a health maintenance organization. The focus of the project was on a 1983 organization development (OD) program including initial training for 12 patient service specialists. The program lasted 12 months. The goal of the program was to retain and increase memberships in the health organization. The overall research method had three major phases of activities. They included forecasting, collecting actual data, and data analysis. The actual two-year benefit, after costs, resulting from the OD program was more than $5,790,410. Using the BFM, each of the forecasters was able to forecast accurately a large financial benefit from investing in the organization development program. Their forecasts, which ranged from $138,800 to $3,900,000, were significantly lower than the actual financial benefit. (Author/KC)