Planning Responses to Demographic Change. AIR 1986 Annual Forum Paper.

A method for forecasting the number of college graduates in the United Kingdom is described, and suggestions are offered about ways that society should react to influence declining enrollments and potential reductions in technologically skilled graduates. Consideration is given to the implications of recruiting noncollege-bound individuals to pursue college studies in specific fields to help relieve shortfalls of workers. The college student recruitment and reporting process used in the United Kingdom is explained, and the specific case of eligible students versus entrants in the field of electrical and electronic engineering in Great Britain universities is addressed. The importance of anticipating demands for engineers is emphasized. It is noted that the problem for industry is the long lead times involved: the attractiveness of employment in a field such as engineering should be demonstrated at least 4 to 6 years in advance of labor needs. (SW)