Changes in Achievement Levels and Attendance in Postsecondary Schools: A Technical Note.

The effect of changes in the achievement level of black high school students on their chances of attending postsecondary schools was assessed. Data from the High School and Beyond survey 1980 sophomore cohort were used to estimate the probability of attending two-year and four-year colleges for blacks and whites, given changes in black achievement levels. The analysis indicates that if the gap between blacks and whites was reduced by 50%, the chances of attending a postsecondary school for a black student with average achievement would increase by nine percentage points. If there was a 75% reduction in the achievement gap, black and white students would be about equally likely to attend postsecondary schools, and if the achievement gap was eliminated, there would be a higher attendance rate for blacks than for whites. Potential increases in attendance would be reflected primarily at four-year colleges, particularly at the higher achievement levels. The statistical model and procedures for calculating the impact of increasing achievement of blacks on postsecondary attendance are described. Data are included on the estimated simulated effects on college attendance as average reading and math achievement are increased for black students. (SW)