Selective Migration of Rural High School Seniors in the 1980s. Staff Working Papers.

In the 1980s the outmigration from rural areas of young and well educated adults was prompted by the decline of rural industries and the resultant economic stress. This paper examines the issue of selective migration during the 1980s by comparing young people who left their hometown to those who stayed behind. Longitudinal survey data collected in the High School and Beyond datafile (1980-86) are used to analyze the individual and community level factors affecting the probability of migration from a hometown. Of the rural youth who were seniors in 1980, 40% had moved at least 50 miles from their hometown by 1986 and had gained advantages in education, income, and occupational status. Comparison of data between these migrants and those who did not migrate indicate that migrants: (1) continued their formal education at a higher rate than nonmigrants (77% compared to 54%), with 30% completing a four-year college program (compared to 10% of nonmigrants); (2) held professional or managerial jobs at a higher rate than nonmigrants (38% compared to 15%); (3) earned about 10% more than nonmigrants; (4) came from homes with better educated parents (64% compared to 46%); (5) had taken college preparatory classes (45% compared to 23%), and (6) had taken either the SAT or ACT (73% compared to 45%). Separate logistic regression analysis of community factors indicate: (1) youth in the rural Midwest and West are more likely to migrate than those in the South and Northeast; (2) higher average per capita income in the home county decreased the probability of migration; (3) higher high school expenditures per student increased migration probability; and (4) the greater the distance of the nearest four-year college, the more probable was eventual migration. Includes 17 references and 12 data tables. (ALL)