Pathways to Educational Attainment: Their Effect on Early Career Development.

A longitudinal study of two cohorts of young white men (the first followed from the late 1960s through the 1970s; the second from the 1980s through the early 1990s) determined that long-term wage growth between the ages of 16 and 36 has both declined and become significantly more unequal for the recent cohort. The declines have been concentrated among less-educated workers (high school dropouts and high school graduates). While workers with sub-bachelor's degrees or only some college experience have a clear advantage over high school graduates in terms of wage growth, that advantage has not increased noticeably in recent years. By contrast, young adults with a bachelor's degree or higher have seen increases in their wage growth, although those with more practice-oriented degrees have had higher wage growth than those with more theoretical degrees. Education pathways have a strong effect on long-term wage growth. Working while enrolled has a positive impact; interrupted schooling has a very strong negative impact. These trends raise a difficult challenge to public policies aimed at improving the living standards and upward mobility of American workers. Developing policies that support more flexible education paths and choices about field of study may help. (KC)