Explorations of Retention and Withdrawal in VET Programs, 1995-1997. Working Paper.

An exploratory study was the first part of an extensive study of retention in vocational education and training (VET) modules in Australia. These four major categorical variables were used to explore patterns in the withdrawal rate: year, gender, state/territory, and area of study/discipline. Withdrawal rates declined significantly from 1995-97. The rate at which males and females failed to complete modules differed by slightly less than 1 percent. Differences among states and territories were quite marked--from a withdrawal rate of just over 4 percent in South Australia to more than 21 percent in the Australian Capital Territory. Area of study also greatly affected withdrawal. Differences varied from a low 8.3 percent in Built Environment to a high 18.1 percent for Humanities. Data showed a significant inverse relationship between withdrawal rates for males and females across disciplines. Females had withdrawal rates higher than males in states where withdrawal rates were relatively low; this reversed in states where withdrawal rates are relatively high. A range of methods were explored to understand the interactions among these four variables: hierarchical breakdown analyses; additive analyses (analysis of variance, logit analysis, iterative fits); and weighted net percentage difference analyses. It was found that gender played a role in withdrawal rates only through its mediation by other variables, and that discipline had an important role. (Contains 16 references, 14 tables, and 9 figures.) (YLB)