Trouble Brewing in San Francisco. Policy Brief

The city of San Francisco will face enormous budgetary pressures from the growing deficits in public pensions, both at a state and local level. In this policy brief, the author estimates that San Francisco faces an aggregate $22.4 billion liability for pensions and retiree health benefits that are underfunded--including $14.1 billion for the city pension system and retiree health benefits, and an estimated $8.3 billion share of unfunded liabilities for California state retiree benefits. These estimates are made by correcting the state and local pension plans' figures, which use a too-optimistic assumption that their investments will grow by about 8% per year for the indefinite future. Unless state and city pensions are brought under control, these skyrocketing costs could easily force San Francisco to limit or forego many other important public expenditures, such as road repair, schools, and healthcare. (Contains 10 endnotes.) [For related reports, see "Trouble Brewing: The Disaster of California State Pensions. State Research" (ED517459); "Trouble Brewing in Orange County. Policy Brief" (ED517462); "Trouble Brewing in San Diego. Policy Brief" (ED517463); and "Trouble Brewing in Los Angeles. Policy Brief" (ED517461).]