Probabilistic Reasoning in Context: Socio-Cultural Differences in Children's and Adults' Predictions about the Fulfillment of Prayers and Wishes

Children and adults appreciate that physical action is typically the conduit between individuals' desires and the fulfillment of those desires. However, certain forms of petitionary thought -- e.g., wishing and praying -- are believed by many people to influence the external world and fulfill desires without direct physical action. We examine whether children's and adults' predictions about the occurrence of desired events differs based on: (1) the ways in which desires are expressed (wishing vs. praying), (2) whether desired events are plausible vs. impossible, and (3) participants' religious backgrounds. Children ages 3- to 11-years (n = 144) and young adults (n = 85) were read scenarios in which a protagonist either wished or prayed for a desired event to occur. Some of the desired events could plausibly happen with ordinary human intervention and others were impossible, even with human intervention. Preschoolers often predicted that desired events would obtain; with increasing age, participants judged that fewer events would obtain. Participants' predictions varied by the probability of the desired event -- across the entire age-range participants predicted that impossible events would obtain less often than plausible events. Thus, participants' everyday probabilistic reasoning was imported into their reasoning about the fulfillment of supernatural petitions. Children's and adults' religious experiences predicted their judgments that events would obtain if they had been prayed for, but not if they had been wished for. Thus, the effects of socio-cultural experience did not globally pervade children's and adults' probabilistic reasoning, but were specific to certain contexts about which they reasoned.