Individual Differences in L2 Literacy Acquisition: Predicting Reading Skill from Sensitivity to Regularities between Orthography, Phonology, and Semantics

Statistical learning (SL) approaches to reading maintain that proficient reading requires assimilation of rich statistical regularities in the writing system. Reading skills in developing first-language readers are predicted by individual differences in sensitivity to regularities in mappings from orthography to phonology (O-P) and semantics (O-S), where good readers rely more on O-P consistency, and less on O-S associations. However, how these regularities are leveraged by second-language (L2) learners remains an open question. We utilize an individual-differences approach, measuring L2 English learners' sensitivity to O-P, O-S, and frequency during word-naming, across two years of immersion. We show that reliance on O-P is leveraged by better readers, while reliance on O-S is slower to develop, characterizing less proficient readers. All factors explain substantial individual variance in L2 reading skills. These findings show how SL plays a key role in L2 reading development through its role in assimilating sublexical regularities between print and speech.