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Minimizing the detrimental effects of road transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change and global warming requires accurate emission forecasting. To forecast greenhouse gas emissions from industrial and civilian transportation on roads in China, we present new approaches that use data extraction and managed machine learning methods for regression and identification. Four methods are examined: decision tree, multinomial logistic regression, multivariate linear regression, and artificial neural network (ANN) multiple-layer perceptron. The findings suggest that the multiple-layer perceptron approach of ANN has superior prediction accuracy compared to other models. Ensemble modelling techniques, such as Bagging and Boosting, significantly improved the predictive performance of the developed multilayer perceptron system. The paper's conclusions are significant for transport policymakers, regulators, and international organizations in mitigating GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change concern can contribute to reduced car use and sustainable mobility. • Those worried about climate change were more willing to live without a car. • Relationship between climate change concern and car use differs based on type of car. • Worry about climate change was strongly related to lower use of a conventional car. • Worry about climate change was unrelated to the use of an electric car. Climate change concern has been linked to climate-friendly behavior, but little is known on whether and how it may promote sustainable mobility. This paper investigates how worry about climate change relates to attitudes and intentions towards the car as well as the actual use of conventional and electric cars in Oslo and Viken in Norway. Findings indicate a relationship between worry about climate change and reduced car use, mediated by mode preferences and willingness to live car-free. Those concerned about climate change were less likely to commute by a conventional car and used conventional cars less both on weekdays and weekends. Worry about climate change was also related to living in a denser neighborhood, preference for travel modes other than the car, and willingness to live car-free. Raising greater awareness of climate change could contribute to climate change mitigation by promoting car-reduced or car-free lifestyles and sustainable mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ensuring the resilience of transport infrastructure assets is a challenge for governments. • A resilient performance measurement framework (PMF) is useful to future-proof transport assets. • A new PMF enabling governments to future-proof their assets against climate change is proposed. • The implications of the PMF for policy development are identified. Having efficient and effective transport infrastructure (e.g. bridges, roads, railways, airways and tunnels) in place is essential for supporting the economic and social well-being of an economy. External disturbances that emerge as a result of climate change, for example, are impacting its performance. Delivering, managing and maintaining transport assets that are resilient and adaptive to changing environmental conditions have become a priority for many governments worldwide. Central to ensuring that transport infrastructure functions at their optimum and is resilient to external changes is performance measurement, as it enables those processes that need to be modified and improved for enhancing the asset's adaptability throughout their lifecycle to be identified. Despite the importance of performance measurement in ensuring the resilience of transport infrastructure, it has received limited attention by governments in their policy making. Therefore, this paper provides a review of the extant literature and proposes a life-cycle resilient performance measurement framework (PMF) within transport context. The developed PMF is robust in comprehensively capturing the underlying perspectives that are significant for: (1) understanding the current state of the resilient level of transport assets; and (2) enabling a higher ability of the assets to adapt to environment-related changes in the future. The implications of the proposed framework for transport policy development are also discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper forecasts the growth of freight transport emissions in India's trucking sector until 2050. We use the ARIMAX time series model to project the commercial vehicle population under various economic growth scenarios. CO 2 emissions are estimated using emission factors, distance traveled, and the projected commercial vehicle population. We use the validated forecasting model to investigate how emissions can be curbed through vehicle scrappage policies or fleet electrification to realign with the 2015 Paris Agreement's targets. Compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, 10-year and 15-year vehicle scrappage policies are estimated to reduce freight emissions by 6–11% and 1–2%, respectively. Fleet electrification has more pronounced effects as it results in a 35% and 70% reduction in carbon emissions for heavy and light goods vehicles in 2050, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario. These findings provide crucial insights for devising policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in India's trucking industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather, especially typhoons, frequently impacts port operations, causing substantial economic losses. Thus, it has become vital to quantitatively evaluate the resilience of ports to typhoon disasters. This paper offers a comprehensive examination of the current evaluation methods used in assessing the resilience of ports and develops a quantitative port typhoon resilience assessment model based on the 4R (i.e., Reliability, Redundancy, Robustness, and Recoverability) framework. Ports' overall resilience to typhoon disasters can be assessed by integrating the analytic hierarchy process method, fuzzy logic, and the evidence reasoning approach. Four representative coastal ports in China were selected as case studies to examine the suitability and efficacy of the suggested model. This study provides innovative theoretical insights and empirical evidence to advance port resilience research, with a valuable reference for port administrators and policymakers, equipping them to address forthcoming challenges of climate change efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper disentangles the impact of critical water levels on container cargo transported along the Rhine River. It analyzes monthly throughput and all instances where navigability was constrained due to low or high water levels between 2000 and 2022, employing a time series econometric model. The study considers water level conditions at critical locations between economic centers while controlling for confounding effects. Our findings reveal an average monthly impact of -0.2% per day of disruption and -5.9% when the disruption remained for more than 24 days. Notably, vulnerability to critical conditions has doubled since 2018 and exhibits spatial variation. The most pronounced disturbances and their lagged effects are associated with localized low water level incidents. We show that enhancing the resilience of inland waterways to climate change is essential to avert potential losses in container throughput, estimated to range between 7% and 20% annual average by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate the environmental benefits of ridesharing and rebound effects. • We use an integrated transport land-use model calibrated to the Paris region. • By reducing the cost of car and congestion, ridesharing yields rebound effects.... • ...that mitigate by about 2/3 initial decreases in CO 2 emissions, mostly due to modal shift. • Road pricing and reducing road capacity can efficiently reduce the rebound effect. This paper investigates how and to what extent changes in user behavior may mitigate the environmental benefits of urban ridesharing, a phenomenon commonly referred to as "rebound effect". Ridesharing reduces both the individual cost of car travel (through cost splitting) and road travel times (by decreasing congestion). This may trigger a number of behavioral changes among transportation users, including: making less detours to avoid congestion (route choice effect), switching from public transit and active modes to the car (modal shift effect), travelling longer distances (distance effect), and relocating further from the urban center (relocation effect). Taking Paris region as a case study, this research applies an integrated transportation/land-use model to evaluate several ridesharing scenarios and quantify the four rebound effects. The overall rebound effect is found to be substantial, cancelling out from 68 to 77% of CO 2 emission reductions and from 52 to 73% of aggregated social benefits (including congestion, air quality, CO 2 emissions, noise) expected from ridesharing. This is primarily the result of the modal shift effect, supplemented as ridesharing develops by the distance effect. Although the simplified representation of ridesharing in the baseline model calls for caution regarding these estimates, a sensitivity analysis corroborates the main findings and the prevalence of substantial rebound effects. The paper also investigates to what extent three complementary policies - improving public transit, reducing road capacity or increasing the cost of car travel – might limit the overall rebound effect and thereby maximize the benefits of urban ridesharing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of dry ports has reshaped the international freight shipping market, introducing both competition pressure (i.e., the common hinterland) and cooperation opportunities (sea-rail intermodal) for seaports. This is more evident in China with the development of the China Railway Express. Unlike dry ports, seaports are more vulnerable to climate change-related disasters, calling for investment in adaptation measures. This paper examines how co-opetition with the dry port affects seaport adaptation investment using a two-stage game-theoretical economic model. Results indicate that cooperation leads to more seaport adaptation investment, while competition results in reduced investment. When compared to the social optimal level of adaptation investment, the seaport tends to under-invest (over-invest) when the cooperation (competition) market size is larger. We also analyze how government subsidies in the seaport's adaptation help achieve optimal social adaptation and how the Knightian uncertainty of the disaster occurrence affects seaport adaptation investments. The relevant policy implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominance of automobility is giving rise to unsustainable outcomes, not least of which is its contribution to climate change. At the same time, business-as-usual transport systems are entering a period of turbulence as a result of influences such as new and disruptive technologies, intelligent systems, new business models, changing consumer expectations, population growth, suburban sprawl, and national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. An optimal trajectory towards sustainable transport is unlikely to be achieved in a laissez-faire policy environment, and nor is it likely that it will be resolved by any single solution. Rather, it is likely to require carefully crafted interventions that have a good fit with unique national circumstances, and which will work in an integrated way to achieve change consistently throughout the transport system. The research reported in this paper draws on the situated knowledge and experience of New Zealand transport experts to develop a suite of potential interventions for a sustainable transport future for New Zealand. Drawing on the findings of a four-stage Delphi study, which solicited experts’ views on interventions that could lead to better outcomes than were being achieved by the current policy environment. The paper concludes that a consistent and integrated commitment is required at all levels of governance and across all parts of the transport system to transition away from automobility and towards sustainable mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long term impact posed by climate change risk remains unclear and is subject to diverse interpretations from different maritime stakeholders. The inter-dynamics between climate change and ports can also significantly diversify in different geographical regions. Consequently, risk and cost data used to support climate adaptation is of high uncertainty and in many occasions, real data is often unavailable and incomplete. This paper presents a risk and cost evaluation methodology that can be applied to the analysis of port climate change adaptation measures in situations where data uncertainty is high. Risk and cost criteria are used in a decision-making model for the selection of climate adaptation measures. Information produced using a fuzzy-Bayesian risk analysis approach is utilized to evaluate risk reduction outcomes from the use of adaptation measures in ports. An evidential reasoning approach is then employed to synthesize the risk reduction data as inputs to the decision-making model. The results can assist policymakers in developing efficient adaptation measures that take into account the reduction in the likelihood of risks, their possible consequences, their timeframe, and costs incurred. A technical study across 14 major container ports in Greater China is presented to demonstrate the interaction between cost and risk analysis, and to highlight the applicability of the stated methodology in practice. The paper offers a useful analytical tool for assessing climate change risks to ports and selecting the most cost-effective adaptation measures in uncertain conditions. It can also be used to compare the practitioners’ perceptions of climate risks across different geographical regions, and to evaluate improvements after implementation of the selected adaptation measures with potential budgetary constraints. The methodology, together with the illustrative cases, provides important insights on how to develop efficient climate change adaptation measures in a supply chain context to improve the sustainability of development and enhance adaptation measures for ports, port cities, intermodal transport, supply chains, and urban and regional planning in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Framework for optimising sustainability, resilience, and cost (SRC) metrics is described and applied. • Traditional and low-carbon restoration strategies are compared on a bridge. • Fragility and restoration models are employed toward actionable SRC metrics. • Practical starting point for evaluating climate projections in adaptation strategies. Climate change exacerbates natural hazards and continuously challenges the performance of critical infrastructure. Thus, climate resilience and sustainable adaptation of infrastructure are of paramount importance. This paper puts forward a novel framework and metrics for optimising sustainability (Greenhouse Gas emissions - GHG), climate resilience (restoration time), and cost. The framework aims to facilitate decision-making by operators and stakeholders and communicate actionable trade-offs between these principles. It describes approaches for quantifying ex-ante adaptation and ex-post recovery from the lenses of sustainability and resilience using relevant metrics. This paper concludes with an application of the framework on a bridge, where normalised metrics are integrated into one unique index (I SRC), which can be used in the recovery prioritisation for portfolios of similar assets. The optimisation program includes a bridge recovery, while reducing GHG emissions. The impact of climate change on the sustainability and resilience indexes is examined and the results show how the optimum solutions are adversely affected by different climate projections. In all scenarios examined, more sustainable solutions leading to reduced GHG emissions (tCO2e) are the optimum solutions when weighing resilience and cost. Based on the case study analysed in this paper, the low carbon restoration strategy resulted in up to 50% higher I SRC , which can justify investments for low GHG adaptation strategies in transport assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper develops a Bayesian-based model to capture and estimate the socio-economic impacts associated with a potential oil spill caused by Arctic shipping. • SEMA (Socio-Economic Impact Model for the Arctic) is illustrated through a hypothetical case and scenario analysis. • SEMA is useful for contingency planning and response efforts in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Analyse the impact of climate change on road transport systems. • Develop a risk prediction tool to reduce climate impact on roads. • Conduct economic analysis of various measures to reduce climate impact on roads. • Conduct an empirical study to provide useful insights for rational risk based climate adaptation. This paper aims to analyse the impacts of climate change to the current and predicted future situations of road transportation in the UK and evaluate the corresponding adaptation plans to cope with them. A conceptual framework of long-term adaptation planning for climate change in road systems is proposed to ensure the resilience and sustainability of road transport systems under various climate risks such as flooding and increased temperature. To do so, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is first employed to evaluate the climate risks in the UK road transport networks. This modelling approach can tackle the high uncertainty in risk data and thus facilitate the development of the climate adaptation framework and its application in the UK road sector. To examine the feasibility of this model, a nationwide survey is conducted among the stakeholders to analyse the climate risks, in terms of the timeframe of climate threats, the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of consequences, and infrastructure resilience. From the modelling perspective, this work brings novelty by expanding the risk attribute "the severity of consequence" into three sub-attributes including economic loss, damage to the environment, and injuries and/or loss of life. It advances the-state-of-the-art technique in the current relevant literature from a single to multiple tier climate risk modelling structure. Secondly, an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is used to prioritise the best adaptation measure(s) by considering both the risk analysis results from the FBR and the implementation costs simultaneously. The main new contributions of this part lie in the rich raw data collected from the real world to provide useful practical insights for achieving road resilience when facing increasing climate risk challenges. During this process, a qualitative analysis of several national reports regarding the impacts posed by climate change, risk assessment and adaptation measures in the UK road sector is conducted for the relevant decision data (i.e. risk and cost). It is also supplemented by an in-depth interview with a senior planner from Highways England. The findings provide road planners and decision makers with useful insights on identification and prioritisation of climate threats as well as selection of cost-effective climate adaptation measures to rationalise adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts such as extreme temperatures, snow and ice, flooding, and sea level rise posed significant threats to railway infrastructure networks. One of the important questions that infrastructure managers need to answer is, "How will maintenance costs be affected due to climate change in different climate change scenarios?" This paper proposes an approach to estimate the implication of climate change on the life cycle cost (LCC) of railways infrastructure assets. The proportional hazard model is employed to capture the dynamic effects of climate change on reliability parameters and LCC of railway assets. A use-case from a railway in North Sweden is analyzed to validate the proposed process using data collected over 18 years. The results have shown that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are significant weather factors in selected use-case. Furthermore, our analyses show that LCC under future climate scenarios will be about 11 % higher than LCC without climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The increases of commuting CO 2 emissions are several times larger than the urban size, population, and economics' developments. • Metro services reducing commuting CO 2 emissions near the metro stations is not statistically significant, possibly because the proportions of car users near the metro stations are similar to the two cities' average levels, which is caused by their higher household income and the longer travel time using the metro. • In Beijing, there are the smallest commuting CO 2 emissions in the outer suburbs due to job-housing balances, short distance and large percentage of non-motorized mode uses while the largest commuting CO 2 emissions in the inner sprawl suburbs due to car trips with long distance. Abstract To understand the changing relationships between commuting CO 2 emissions (CCE), travel behavior and urban forms, this paper provides a comparative study between the typical Chinese cities of Beijing (more developed) and Xi'an (rapidly developing). Further, the effects of metro services on reducing CCE were explored, and comparative analysis on CCE between the inner sprawling suburbs and outer suburbs was conducted. It was found that: (i) the increases in CCE are several times larger than the increases in urban size, population, and economic developments; (ii) metro services reducing CCE near metro stations is not statistically significant, maybe because the proportions of car users near the metro stations are similar to the two cities' average levels, which is caused by their higher household income and the longer travel time using the metro; (iii) in Beijing, there are smallest CCE in the outer suburbs due to job-housing balances, short distance and large percentage of non-motorized mode uses while largest CCE in the inner sprawl suburbs due to car trips with long distance. These findings indicate that to cope with the rapidly increasing CCE, more attention should be paid to developing strong industry and real-estate simultaneously; the improvement in the feeder bus and public bicycle systems should also be reinforced to reduce the total travel time of metro users; and satellite cities with job-housing balance are greatly needed. The implications will benefit efforts to reduce CCE and mitigate global climate change, and they also provide empirical evidence and reference values for other global cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The potential acceptability of a carbon tax in Italy is high. • Median WTP ranges from €101 to €154 for an annual fixed carbon tax. • Median WTP ranges from €0.17 to €0.30 per liter for a fuel carbon tax. • Tax use, environmental awareness, and socioeconomic characteristics influence WTP. • The results are consistent with previous researches. • Suggestions on how to properly design a carbon tax are given. Abstract A carbon tax aimed specifically at the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by non-ETS sectors (and in particular, from transportation) has been proposed by policy makers on several occasions but has not yet been implemented in Italy. This paper aims to test the acceptability of such a measure and to quantify its amount by estimating Italian citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) via two contingent valuation surveys involving a sample of 603 people. We find that the median WTP ranges from €101 to €154 if the payment vehicle is an annual fixed carbon tax, and from €0.17 to €0.30 per liter if the payment vehicle is a fuel carbon tax. Such values are found to be consistent with the social cost of the GHG emissions produced annually by an Italian citizen. Earmarking the carbon tax either to mitigate the environmental impacts of climate change or to finance renewable energy projects proves to substantially increase the respondents' WTP. A number of other impacts on the WTP were also estimated, including: respondents' attitudes and beliefs, their place of residence and mobility habits, and various socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The policy implications of this evidence are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to compare improvement actions for reducing transport’s impact on climate from the shipper’s perspective. To that end, it introduces an evaluation tool for comparing improvement actions in transport systems in terms of transport costs, impact on climate, and barriers to implementation. Within the context of five international flows involving a food producer, three actions—namely, engaging intermodal transport, increasing load factors by double-stacking pallets, and using high-capacity vehicles—were evaluated. Shipment data were collected to calculate reductions in transport costs and impact on climate, whereas interviews with the food producer were conducted to identify barriers. Results showed that reductions in transport costs and impact on climate attributed to the improvement actions differed among the five flows. Engaging intermodal transport reduced the system’s impact on climate by 27–53%, double-stacking pallets by 0–23%, and using high-capacity vehicles by 7–15%, with differences primarily due to different freight densities. Concerning barriers to implementation, the improvement actions also varied by flow. Altogether, unlike other papers, which have examined improvement actions separately, this paper offers an evaluation tool for comparing several improvement actions at once, as applied to a particular empirical case. Shippers with multiple flows and several possible improvement actions can use the evaluation tool to efficiently reduce their systems’ impact on climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) ‘representative vision’ that articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and (iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to 2035. Three key contributors to CO 2 mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch, including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand. Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and also delivers air quality co-benefits – reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM 2.5 from the passenger transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions from aviation will continue to increase in the future, in contradiction of global climate policy objectives. Yet, airlines and airline organisations suggest that aviation will become climatically sustainable. This paper investigates this paradox by reviewing fuel-efficiency gains since the 1960s in comparison to aviation growth, and by linking these results to technology discourses, based on a two-tiered approach tracing technology-focused discourses over 20 years (1994–2013). Findings indicate that a wide range of solutions to growing emissions from aviation have been presented by industry, hyped in global media, and subsequently vanished to be replaced by new technology discourses. Redundant discourses often linger in the public domain, where they continue to be associated with industry aspirations of ‘sustainable aviation’ and ‘zero-emission flight’. The paper highlights and discusses a number of technology discourses that constitute ‘technology myths’, and the role these ‘myths’ may be playing in the enduring but flawed promise of sustainable aviation. We conclude that technology myths require policy-makers to interpret and take into account technical uncertainty, which may result in inaction that continues to delay much needed progress in climate policy for aviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the climate emergency, it is necessary to model and forecast road transport emissions for implementing more effective climate policy. This paper fills an important research gap by quantifying the challenges, barriers and remedies of achieving road transport emission reduction and air quality improvement in developing countries. It contributes to the debate on top-down and bottom-up approaches to reconcile carbon and other transport related emissions. China and India are chosen as case studies. Using various official statistics and proxy variables, we estimate and compare the road transport carbon emissions of the two countries systematically from 2009 to 2020. Insights from detailed mode-specific estimations of the bottom-up approach are valuable for targeted policies and measures. An analysis of the major components of road transport carbon emissions points to strategies of promoting electric vehicles, reducing transport demand, accelerating modal shift to low-carbon modes, and cleaner electricity to achieve climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulation is a valuable prediction tool to evaluate the impact of climate change interventions prior to disruptive implementations that may yield unintended and unwanted consequences. Advances in agent-based simulation allow us to estimate the dynamic emissions produced by vehicles at a fine resolution, with each vehicle modelled individually. The scalability of these models allow decision-makers to evaluate large-scale scenarios. But how good are these models? In this paper, the authors apply a state-of-the-art emissions model in the Multi Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim) framework to simulate individual vehicle emissions. Simulation results are compared with real driving emissions tests, using a portable emissions measurement device on a light and heavy vehicle. Quantifying the gap between macro-level simulation and actual emissions, the paper contributes by showing that pollutants are significantly underestimated, especially for heavy vehicles. This confirms prior micro-scale studies and magnifies the detrimental impact of using uncorrected aggregated models to inform environmental policy affecting transport. • Quantifying the gap in emission estimates on large-scale traffic simulations. • City-scale activity-based transport model coupled with vehicle-specific emissions. • Variation in real driving emissions is much larger than in randomised simulations. • Macro-level models underestimate heavy vehicle emissions more than light vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers’ flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of climate change and growing health hazards due to air pollution in urban centers, private car use is being increasingly criticized. At the same time, research suggests that there is an unsatisfied demand for modes of transportation other than private cars. In fact, many cities all over Europe have already established car-restricted or car-free areas. This paper uses a discrete choice experiment to learn more about people’s preferences regarding a car-free city center in Berlin, Germany. We find that, given the current infrastructure, around 60% of our respondents are willing to accept a car-free city center. By improving infrastructure for cyclists, willingness to accept a car-free city center strongly increases. Similarly, improving the network of bus stops and train stations as well as rededicating released streets to recreational uses would contribute to a higher acceptance of a car-free city center. Using a random parameters logit model, we have also identified observed and unobserved sources of heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the environmental impact of urban road freight in the Paris region, focusing on pollutant emissions. We develop a modeling chain including a freight demand model, a multiclass traffic assignment model, and a road emission model. This allows for a detailed representation - spatially and with regard to operations - of urban road freight. We find that while urban road freight represents only 6% of trips and 8% of distances traveled by road in the Paris region, it accounts for 36% of total damages caused by pollutant emissions from road traffic. This is the combined result of light and heavy goods vehicles emitting more than private cars, and of freight traffic being more spatially concentrated (within the city center) than passenger traffic, thereby affecting more population. All in all, the environmental cost of urban road freight is around 2.1 billion € per year. Some policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engineers and planners need information about factors that affect demand for bicycling and walking to plan and manage transportation infrastructure. This paper presents a set of econometric models that summarize the effects of variation in temperature, precipitation, wind speed, dew point, and hours of daylight on daily bicycle and pedestrian trail traffic volumes. We make three contributions to the literature on non-motorized traffic monitoring. First, we summarize trail traffic monitoring results for 32 monitoring stations on multiuse trails in 13 cities in the United States, including locations across seven climate regions and zones classified by the U.S. Department of Energy. The monitoring results include estimates of average daily bicyclists (ADB) and average daily pedestrians (ADP) for the period, January 1, 2014 through February 16, 2016. Second, we introduce the concept of demand returns by testing the parabola form of the weather factors in the models, and measuring the vertex points of demand functions where use shifts from increasing to decreasing or vice versa in response to linear changes in the weather variable. Third, we compare regional elasticities for each weather variable for both bicyclists and pedestrians. Our results show (1) mean daily trail traffic varies substantially in response to variations in weather, with greater elasticities for temperature than precipitation and other weather variables; (2) the parabola form works well for variables such as temperature, where trail use is associated with warmer temperatures, but only up to a point at which higher temperatures then decrease use; and (3) bicyclists and pedestrians respond differently to variations in weather, and their responses vary both within and across regions. Transportation planners and trail managers can use these results to estimate the effects of weather and climate on trail traffic and to plan and manage facilities more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) or plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the road transportation can significantly reduce the carbon emission. Hence, the demand of EVs is likely to increase in the near future. Large penetration of EVs will also ultimately result into high loads on the existing power grids. The controlled charging of EVs can have a significant impact on the power grid load, voltage, frequency, and power losses. In this paper, we have provided a comprehensive review of various energy optimization approaches used for EVs charging. Energy optimization approaches used for EVs not only enhance the battery life but also contribute in regulating the voltage and frequency. During EVs charging, various objective functions such as supporting the renewable energy sources, minimization of the peak load, energy cost, and maximization of the aggregator profit have also been studied from optimization perspectives. The controlled and an optimized EVs charging enhances the performance of EVs batteries and conserves the energy in the system by minimizing the load and power losses. The different EVs charging approaches such as centralized and distributed suited for different objective functions have also been studied and compared with respect to various optimization approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a growing literature on strategies to reduce emissions and other externalities in shipping and ports, very little attention has been given to the port’s role in reducing negative externalities in its hinterland. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing ports across the globe to identify which ports have implemented measures to improve the environmental performance of hinterland transport. Results show that only 76 out of 365 ports examined are doing so. The measures applied are identified, related to different goals and their challenges discussed. The most common measures are found to be technology improvements, infrastructure development and monitoring programmes, and the most advanced ports in green hinterland strategies are Rotterdam, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Hamburg, although many ports that are world leaders in green port strategies have not implemented measures in the hinterland dimension. Different port groups are segmented according to their mix of goals and measures as a foundation for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air travel is considered the biggest individual climate sin. Avoiding flying, however, seems impossible. In this paper we argue that the flight a passenger chooses can be significant. For this purpose we compared the carbon emissions of selected flights in three geographical markets. We found tremendous differences in the environmental performance of individual flights. Furthermore, we also found that flying with the most modern aircraft or flying non-stop represents, in many cases, the least polluting option. Nevertheless, we were able to show that there are exceptions to this rule. Based on our results, we provide recommendations to the industry and for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been regarded as one of the most prominent green technologies, touted to help reduce global energy consumption and carbon emissions. China advocates the development of EVs to address the increasing challenges of climate change, urban air pollution and energy security, but consumers’ enthusiasm for adopting EVs remains low. In this paper, we present a concept model that hypothesizes Chinese cultural values as a key to understanding Chinese consumers’ intention to adopt EVs. Based on a nationwide online survey in China, this study explores Chinese consumers’ attitudes toward two types of EVs—battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles—by identifying the influence of the human–nature relationship, long-term orientation, face consciousness, and risk attitude, as well as the mediating effect of deontological ethical evaluation in decision-making. The results suggest that public policy and social marketing efforts should pay more attention to the role of cultural values when promoting environmentally sustainable technologies, and importantly, that the promotion efforts should differ for different cultural elements and products with different levels of innovativeness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road transport is a major source of CO 2 emissions in Ireland and accounts for almost 96% of the total CO 2 emissions from the transport sector. Following the recent adopted UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories [24/CP.19], this study applied the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006 IPCC GLs) tier 3 approach to estimate CO 2 emissions from road transport at the vehicle category level, for the first time in Ireland. For this, disaggregated datasets were prepared based on year of vehicle registration and mileage since registration of the vehicle. Such an approach provided a more realistic national scenario in comparison to the use of average mileage degradation in emission calculations. This investigation comprised a recalculation of previous emissions estimates (1990–2012) and an estimation of CO 2 emissions in 2013 using a previously unavailable level of data disaggregation for vehicle mileage as well as using vehicle class specific data and an improved bottom-up estimation methodology in COPERT. Historic vehicle fleet data were restructured, annual mileage data were estimated in relation to the fleet data and back extrapolated using a regression approach. The results showed that the mileage degradation was not only subject to fuel technology, engine size, and age but also the emissions class and vehicle category. It was also observed that the disaggregated level of data provided a different CO 2 emissions split among the vehicle categories than that of previous estimations which were based on an aggregated level of data. Previous emissions inventories (1990–2012) were shown to have underestimated the share from diesel fuelled passenger cars by more than 56% in 2012. Diesel fuelled passenger cars were also found to account for the majority of CO 2 emissions from road transport activities in Ireland in 2013. The level and trend assessment showed that emissions from Euro-II and Euro-III classed vehicles especially for passenger cars, which have a significant contribution to the total emission in 2013 have caused an increase in fleet level emissions in Ireland. In addition, the results also showed that the emissions share from Light Duty Vehicles and Heavy Duty Vehicles were overestimated by previous investigations. This paper highlights the importance of the resolution of data used in emissions inventory preparation which may impact upon future projections and policy formulation. The findings of this investigation are also discussed in relation their implications for road transport policy, including carbon taxation and future policy options aimed at achieving EU emissions target in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes changes to the modelling of the transport sector in the WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid) model to incorporate road freight and account for the intensity of freight with respect to GDP. Modelling freight demand based on the intensity of freight with respect to GDP allows for a focus on the importance of road freight with respect to the cost-effective achievement of climate policy targets. These climate policy targets are explored using different GDP pathways between 2005 and 2100, which are sourced from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database. Our modelling shows that the decarbonisation of the freight sector tends to occur in the second part of the century and that the sector decarbonises by a lower extent than the rest of the economy. Decarbonising road freight on a global scale remains a challenge even when notable progress in biofuels and electric vehicles has been accounted for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mackenzie River is a major transportation route serving many remote northern Canadian communities and mining sites. The river is only navigable during the summer and early fall, when clear of ice. However, the river’s water conditions have changed significantly in recent years, and are expected to continue to do so, resulting in increased uncertainty for waterway transport. This paper presents a model for providing guidance to shipping companies, customers, and government on how shipping patterns may need to evolve to effectively adapt to changing climate conditions. Future freight volumes are forecasted using time series analysis. Then, logistics cost optimization is used to incorporate predicted water flow profile changes in shipping companies’ future delivery schedule planning. Results indicate that future waterway freight delivery capacities in September and October may be insufficient to transport forecasted volumes, and shipping companies may be advised to arrange for increased delivery activities in June and July. If delivery capacities are constrained by equipment and crew availability rather than water conditions in the first half of the shipping season, shipping companies may also need to take advantage of earlier anticipated ice breakup to begin the delivery season earlier. Incorporating this method for climate change adaptation in freight schedule planning may aid both shipping companies and government agencies in rethinking current practices. The method is particularly suitable for a region where harsh environmental conditions, climate change, and extreme remoteness have an overwhelming impact on operations, and logistical delays are considered quite differently from supply chains further south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the pros and the cons of installing batteries on offshore support vessels. These vessels are specially designed to provide services to oil and gas operations, such as anchor handling, supply and subsea operations. They have multiple engines and advanced dynamic positioning systems to ensure that they can perform their duties with high reliability at nearly any sea state. Combined with high safety requirements, this has resulted in general operational patterns with vessels running multiple combustion engines even at calm water conditions. For emissions, low engine loads yield high emissions of exhaust gases such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) and aerosols such as black carbon (BC), due to less favorable combustion conditions. The high span for these vessels between low loads and high, and their great need for potential power at short notice, motivate our examination of hybrid setups with electric: the vessel segment should be more favorable than many. We find that combining batteries with combustion engines reduces local pollution and climate impact, while the economics with current battery cost and fuel prices is good enough for new vessels, but not good enough for retrofits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is considerable research on the climate effects of daily travel, including research on the spatio-temporal and socioeconomic impact factors of daily travel and associated climate change effects. However, this is less true with respect to long-distance trips. This paper uses national transport survey data from Germany to point out differences in GHG emissions related to demographic, socioeconomic and spatial characteristics for daily and long-distance travel. Daily travel and long-distance travel are investigated simultaneously and separately using Logit and OLS regressions. The results show that transport-related GHG emissions from long-distance trips and daily trips are affected by sociodemographics in largely the same direction. In contrast, spatial attributes, like municipality size or density grade of the region, show a different picture. Per capita emissions in rural and suburban areas are higher for daily trips, but lower for long-distance trips than emissions caused by urban residents. While we cannot rule out the possibility of residential self-selection, our findings challenge the idea that compact urban development may help reduce CO 2 emissions once long-distance trips are taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The environmental impact of CO2 emissions has attracted increasing attention in recent years, which has redefined the modal choice between air and rail transport. Transport service provision via railway involves less marginal environmental damage than air transport, yet it entails a higher emissions burden in its infrastructure construction stage. This paper empirically investigates the environmental burden of these two transport modes by taking into account the CO2 emissions from both transport service provision and infrastructure construction. Using a panel data set from 1999 to 2007 for three Japanese railway companies and the Japanese air transport industry, which are treated as decision-making units (DMUs), this paper estimates the social efficiency of these DMUs via a nonparametric productivity measurement method that incorporates economic bads as undesirable outputs. The aviation industry is shown to be efficient, whereas results for the railway industry are mixed: JR East is efficient, JR West is inefficient throughout the observation period, and JR Tokai substantially improved its efficiency during the period to become an efficient company in 2007. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In 2008, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the European Council agreed on including international aviation in the already existing European Union carbon market. From 2012, allowances will be required for all international flights landing at and departing from any airport in the EU. Domestic aviation will be subject to the same rules as international air traffic. Model-based empirical estimations presented in this paper indicate a diverse set of effects influencing competition between European and non-European aircraft operators. Initially, this paper provides an overview on recent political developments on EU as well as on International Civil Aviation Organisation level on the subject of emissions trading and aviation. Subsequently, our modelling approach and the main results concerning impacts on operating costs, ticket prices and cargo rates for European and non-European aircraft operators are presented and discussed. Finally, conclusions about the impacts on competition between European and non-European airlines are drawn. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes an approach to balance the climate benefits of contrail reduction against the penalties incurred when cruise altitudes are restricted. Altitude restrictions are targeted by selecting, for each 6-h period, the altitude that provides the greatest reduction in contrail for the lowest increase in carbon dioxide emission. Calculations are for western Europe. This paper discusses the variability in contrail formation conditions in the region and presents contrail reductions and carbon dioxide emission increases obtained with this optimised approach, which compare favourably with fixed altitude restrictions. A new method is also developed to estimate contrail fractions within three-dimensional grids. Conclusions discuss potential operational issues associated with a varying altitude restriction policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A framework for bridge scour risk management in an uncertain climate future. • A systematic approach to estimating scour risk ratings in different climate scenarios. • Local scour progression is fastest during the initial 48 h of a peak flow event. • Accelerated scour risk progression even in low emission climate scenario (RCP2.6). Riverine bridges are under a substantial threat of scour due to the magnitude and frequency of floods arising due to climate change. Infrequent inspections, inadequate data on foundation depths, and the lack of consideration of hydrologic and climate parameters often result in uncertainties within current scour risk assessments. This paper presents an approach for assessing the risk progression of local scour in peak flow conditions that consider uncertainties associated with location, downscaling of climate predictions, and hydrologic, hydraulic and scour prediction models. A rational scour risk rating based on warning time to failure is introduced that can provide a useful addition to the existing bridge condition indexes. The case study on a set of railway bridges in Southeast England shows that climate change could accelerate the scour risk progression, even in the low-emission scenario. The approach and results form a vital basis for scour risk mitigation and climate adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the need of introducing biofuels for the use of the civil aviation sector, and the different possibilities of application of incentive mechanisms if the existing market conditions do not allow their direct commercialisation. After an introduction on the main features of the civil aviation impact on climate change, a historical review of the European Union regulations to promote the energy extraction from biological resources is presented. The different incentive policies around the world are revised and compared and some indications are offered on the most recommendable procedures that might be carried out in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In October 2013, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) announced that it would put in place a market-based mechanism to cap net greenhouse gas emissions from international civil aviation at 2020 levels. This paper analyses the obligations that would be placed on real airlines under an initial draft “Strawman” proposal that was originally formulated as a starting point for discussions within ICAO, and the extent to which such a proposal would succeed in keeping emissions at or below the desired level. The provisions of the ICAO proposal were then applied to more than 100 existing airlines. In order to protect commercial sensitivities, we used hierarchical cluster analysis to identify groups of different types of airlines. We report the results for these groups rather than for individual airlines. While ambiguities in the Strawman proposal complicated the analysis, we found that, depending on their size and rate of growth, airlines will be required to offset very different proportions of their emissions from international flights. A system of de minimis exemptions, as currently proposed, would benefit some rich countries as well as poor ones. Targeting such exemptions more narrowly would raise practical difficulties, which we describe. We conclude by recommending that ICAO design and implement a much simpler system; and propose one alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has the potential to impact long-term road pavement performance. Consequently, to maintain pavements within the same ranges of serviceability as before, current pavement maintenance strategies need to be re-assessed and, if necessary, changed. Changes in maintenance may lead to different agency costs and user costs as a consequence. This paper commences by defining an assessment procedure, showing how maintenance intervention strategies and Life-Cycle Costs (LCC) may be affected by future climate. A typical Virginia flexible pavement structure and anticipated climate change was used as an example. This example is believed to be representative for a great number of localities in the United States. A method using historical climatic data and climate change projections to predict pavement performance using Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) under current or future climate was introduced. Based on pavement performance prediction, maintenance interventions were planned and optimized. The maintenance effects of three treatments (thin overlay, thin overlay with an intermediate layer, and mill & fill) were considered. A Life-Cycle Cost analysis is reported that used binary non-linear programming to minimize the costs (either agency costs or total costs) by optimizing intervention strategies in terms of type and application time. By these means, the differences in maintenance planning and LCC under current and future climate can be derived. It was found, that for this simplified case study, pavement maintenance and LCC may be affected by climate change Optimized maintenance may improve resilience to climate change in terms of intervention strategy and LCC, compared to responsive maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports the impacts of economic analysis results on sea-level rise adaptation decision making with different economic analysis methods. The methodology was applied to Hillsborough County, Florida. A general conclusion is that partial shoreline protection should be implemented to reduce the potential impacts of sea-level rise on important land use, then transportation infrastructure is preferred to be protected or accommodated, and finally managed relocation should be adopted. More specifically, the results show that the best adaptation strategy is shoreline protection plus transportation infrastructure accommodation; the length of shoreline protection plays an important role in the economic analysis results, and shoreline protection and accommodation adaptation strategies for all areas are not recommended because of either high costs or low benefits; the value of travel time saving and spatial autocorrelation play important roles in the economic analysis results of accommodation strategy, which highlights the importance of including indirect economic factors and spatial autocorrelation impacts when making sea-level rise adaptation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How a city grows and changes, along with where people choose to live likely affects travel behavior, and thus the amount of transportation CO 2 emissions that they produce. People generally go through different stages in their life, and different travel needs are associated with each. The impact of the built environment may vary depending on the lifecycle stage, and the years spent at each stage will differ. A family with children may last for twenty to thirty years, while the time spent without dependents might be short in comparison. Over a family’s lifecycle, how big of a difference might the built environment, through household location choice, have on the amount of transportation CO 2 emissions produced? From a climate change perspective, how significant is residential location on the CO 2 produced by transportation use? This paper uses data from the Osaka metropolitan area to compare the direct transportation CO 2 emissions produced over a family’s lifecycle across five different built environments to determine whether any are sustainable and which lifecycle stage has the greatest overall emissions. This understanding would enable the design of a targeted policy based on household lifecycle to reduce overall transportation CO 2 of individuals throughout one’s lifecycle. The yearly average per-capita family lifetime transportation CO 2 emissions were 0.25, 0.35, 0.58, 0.78, and 0.79 metric tonnes for the commercial, mixed-commercial, mixed-residential, autonomous, and rural areas respectively. The results show that only the commercial and mixed-commercial areas were considered to be sustainable from a climate change and transportation perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures the potential effects of low water levels on the Rhine and Danube navigation in the context of weather variability and a number of climate change scenarios. A long-term multimodal network transport analysis over the period 2005–2050 is presented; it analyzes the impact of changes on the water depth conditions on transport costs and the modal splits between three competing modes. The results indicate that the impact of climate change until 2050 should be limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Conduct critical analysis on climate adaptation study in transportation. • Introduce a new classification method with reference to diverse key topics. • Identify the research gaps through statistical and qualitative analysis. • Guide future research directions in transport adaptation to climate change. With the occurrence of more frequent and intense climate change events, transportation systems, including their infrastructure and operations become increasingly vulnerable. However, the existing research related to climate risks, adaptation and planning in the transport sector is still at an embryonic stage. Understanding such, this paper presents a critical review on climate risks, adaptation strategies and planning in the context of road and rail transportation systems. It aims to conduct a rigorous survey, to highlight any significant research gaps not addressed in past studies and to analyse current emerging topics to guide future directions. It critically dissects the selected papers by categorising them into several dimensions to reveal the status quo and potential challenges, including climate risk assessment, transport asset management, climate planning and policy, and adaptation of transport infrastructure to climate change. It will provide valuable references for future research and constructive insights and empirical guidance on climate adaptation, risk analysis, transport planning and other important relevant topics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Land transportation pathways towards 1.5 °C scenario for 4 countries are presented. • The avoid/shift/improve approach is used to create a 1.5 °C scenario for each country. • Ambitious pledges in transportation will be necessary for updated countries' NDCs. • A 1.5 °C scenario will require the implementation of a wide range of policies and measures. • These will reflect commitments tovery low CO 2 vehicle technologies, energy systems, and travel patterns. Decarbonizing transportation in emerging economies will be one of the key challenges in global climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, pathways are developed towards achieving a 1.5° degree scenario for land-transport for four emerging economies (Brazil, India, Kenya and Vietnam). The aim is to highlight the key opportunities and challenges for low-carbon transport in countries with rapidly growing mobility demand. The main focus of this paper is to reconcile actual and required emission reduction targets and develop plausible pathways to achieve these targets. The paper also identifies potential strategies and measures for these countries to follow these pathways. The analysis considers the contributions of "avoid" (cutting travel growth), "shift" (to lower CO 2 modes) and "improve" (vehicle and fuel CO 2 characteristics) interventions to decarbonisation scenarios. These scenarios aim to inform renewed Nationally Determined Contributions and shed light on the feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways that would be in line with the Paris Agreement. Results from this study show that achieving 1.5DS would require dramatic changes in travel patterns, technology and fuels, and major intensification of current policy approaches. Decarbonization solutions will need to include greater use and investment of efficient modes, major shifts toward near-zero carbon fuels such as clean electricity, systems integration, modal shift and urban planning solutions. Although the socio-economic situations and national transport systems differ between the selected countries, some fairly similar strategies appear likely to be core to the mitigation effort, such as rapid growth in light- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification and investments in public transit systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A majority of travelers considers travel by train as an alternative to air travel. • Two independent studies find familiarity with train travel to correlate with modal choice. • Air and train travelers' time perceptions systematically differ. • Railway companies' communication should emphasize time productivity. • Policies should focus on fostering familiarity with train travel. Academic studies and recent social movements alike highlight the importance of changing flying behavior for reaching global climate goals. A particularly effective strategy for minimizing transport-related CO2 emissions is to substitute flights with train travel. The same trip causes around 80–90% less CO2 emissions by train than by plane. The results of this paper are based on two independent samples, the first representing the Swiss population, the second one including international business students. Both empirical studies consistently show that respondents who are familiar with train travel are also more prone to consider the train as an alternative for international, long-distance trips. Furthermore, both studies find systematic differences when it comes to travel time perceptions of likely air and train travelers: While people who are inclined to travel by plane see a high value in minimizing the total travel time of their journey, likely train travelers put less emphasis on minimizing total travel time. At the same time, prospective train travelers find it highly important to be able to use their travel time productively, which does not seem to be the case for potential air travelers. As consumer insights about the willingness to substitute flying with train travel are rare, the results of this paper build a basis for developing communication strategies and policies aiming at increasing low-carbon travel mode choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate impact analysis of air transport from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of passenger flights from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of specific emissions by traffic regions. • Focus on both CO 2 and NO x emissions. • Forecast of climate impact effects for three scenarios up to the year 2100. Transport is considered to be a major contributor to emissions, resulting in a deterioration of local air quality and contributing to global climate change. The present paper focuses on how passenger flights departing from German airports contribute to global climate change. We describe in detail, how traffic forecasts for three scenarios entitled Reference, Free Play and Regulated Shift have been developed and how the resultant emissions have been quantified. Subsequently, we applied a climate model, providing insights into the very long-term climate effects under different assumptions on emissions up to the year 2100. The modelling framework shows that the development of emissions results from complex interactions of demand development and supply decisions, which highly influence the climate impact. With this paper, we show that an integrated, multi-disciplinary analysis can create valuable indicators and advice for transport policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Transport policy in the UK is seeking to promote the development of low carbon transport technology and to encourage people to choose to use low carbon travel options. This paper draws on existing behavioural theories to study young people’s travel behaviour intentions and the influence on these from their knowledge of, and willingness to act on, climate change. The study involved a series of focus groups with young people aged 11–18years, where attitudes to transport modes, attitudes towards climate change and travel behaviour intentions were discussed. Knowledge and values are established as the key determinants of young people’s attitudes and behaviour intentions towards transport in the context of climate change. More specifically it is established that young people’s values emphasise speed and freedom and that it is important to young people that the mode of transport they choose is reflective of the image they want to portray. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper a life cycle perspective is used to analyse Europabanan, a proposed high-speed rail track in Sweden. The life cycle emissions reductions are found to be 550,000tons of CO2-equivalents per annum by 2025/2030 with almost 60% of this coming from a shift from truck to rail freight and 40% from a shift from air and road travel to high-speed rail travel. In contexts similar to Sweden, it is thus an important issue whether a large increase is required in freight rail capacity anyway, since high-speed rail investments may not be justified for the passenger markets alone. The study also indicates that a substantial share of emissions due to construction of the new railway could be counterbalanced through the reduced need for building and maintaining roads and airports, and for manufacturing cars. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]