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The purpose of this paper is to explain how information communication technology, or ICT, can play an effective and tactical role in bridging conflict early warning with early response. The first section of this paper reviews the raison d'être of conventional early warning systems, their underlying methodologies and use of ICTs. The second section traces the trend towards more decentralized approaches to disaster management, suggesting that conflict early warning initiatives take heed of the lessons learned and current applications of ICTs in disasters. The third section identifies the tactics and ICTs used by activist citizens and nonviolent movements to highlight the potential of non-conventional approaches to warning and response. The conclusion ties together the ICT threads from the three sections. In keeping with the theme of the 49th International Studies Association (ISA) Convention of 2008, "Bridging Multiple Divides," this paper seeks to link the lessons learned in conflict early warning, disaster response and nonviolent action to improve on current responses to violent conflict. The three sections that follow thus assess the effectiveness of conventional approaches to conflict early warning; contrast these approaches with those practiced in disaster response; and draw on survival techniques and civilian resistance studies to outline the potential added value that a tactical approach offers vis-à-vis bridging conflict early warning with response. These three sections are themselves framed into three parts: analysis of the systems, critique of the methodologies and review of the ICTs. Since the purpose of this research is first and foremost to assess the role of information communication technologies in early warning, those parts receive priority—albeit within the contexts of the associated systems and their respective methodologies. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of international relations scholars argue that intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) promote peace. Existing approaches emphasize IGO membership as an important causal attribute of individual states, much like economic development and regime type. We provide an alternative social network approach to the study of IGOs and conflict that borrows from social psychological work regarding the relationship between aggression and the social network positions of schoolchildren. We argue that conflicts between states, like children, are shaped by social positions; in the international system, these positions are constituted by IGO membership. Membership not only constitutes ties between states, but determines clique membership, and establishes hierarchies of prestige and influence in the international system. We introduce new IGO relational data and test our claims during the period 1885 to 1992. We demonstrate that common membership of IGOs and clique size increase conflict, while high prestige and in-group favoritism decrease it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a formal model of group decision making based on social psychology theories of attitude change and cognitively-based approaches to foreign policy decision making. The model describes the dynamics of opinion change of a small group of key decision makers, accounting for the effects of member policy preferences, group influence pressures, and the impact of incoming information. Methodologically, the model combines nonlinear dynamical systems theory and social network analysis. We describe methods for quantitatively implementing the model based on analyst judgment about the policy attitudes of the group members and the network of relationships between them. We also describe techniques for visualizing and interpreting the model results. We present results of an application of the model to the upcoming presidential succession in Russia. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]