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The pan-African Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel initiative (GGW) is a reforestation program to reverse the degradation of land. We investigate characteristics of mean precipitation due to proposed land-use changes to woody savannah with three hypothetical courses of the GGW, with an area between 0.8 and 1.25 million km2, and between the 100- and 400-mm isohyets. The global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) was applied for this investigation, employing ensembles with 40 members for the rainy season from June to September and 50 members for August when precipitation is at its peak. In comparison with the observational reference, the results show that a wet bias on the order of 33% in the eastern Sahel and a moderate dry bias of −41% in the western Sahel are present in the MPAS simulations. Our simulations do not provide any significant evidence for GGW-induced changes in the characteristics of the summer precipitation, for positive changes within the Sahel supporting the forestation activities, or for potentially adverse changes in the neighboring regions. Changes are present at the regional scale, but they are not significant at the 5% level. Also, changes simulated for further hydrometeorological variables such as temperature, radiation fluxes, or runoff are comparatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With large elevation gradients and high hydrometeorological variability, Alpine catchments pose special challenges to hydrological climate change impact assessment. Data from seven regional climate models run within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX), each driven with a different boundary forcing, are used to exemplarily evaluate the reproduction of observed flow duration curves and access the future discharge of the Ammer River located in Alpine southern Germany applying the hydrological simulation model called the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The results show that WaSiM reasonably reproduces the observed runoff for the entire catchment when driven with observed precipitation. When applied with CORDEX evaluation data (1989–2008) forced by ERA-Interim, the simulations underestimate the extreme runoff and reproduce the high percentile values with errors in the range from −37% to 55% with an ensemble mean of around 15%. Runs with historical data 1975–2005 reveal larger errors, up to 120%, with an ensemble mean of around 50% overestimation. Also, the results show a large spread between the simulations, primarily resulting from deficiencies in the precipitation data. Results indicate future changes for 2071–2100 in the 99.5th percentile runoff value of up to 9% compared to 1975–2005. An increase in high flows is also supported by flow return periods obtained from a larger sample of highest flows over 50 years, which reveals for 2051–2100 lower return periods for high runoff values compared to 1956–2005. Obtained results are associated with substantial uncertainties leading to the conclusion that CORDEX data at 0.11° resolution are likely inadequate for driving hydrologic analyses in mesoscale catchments that require a high standard of fidelity for hydrologic simulation performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the population exposure to an increasing number of hydroclimatic extreme events owing to the warming climate. It is well agreed that the extreme events are increasing in terms of frequency as well as intensity due to climate change and that the exposure to compound extreme events (concurrent occurrence of two or more extreme phenomena) affects population, ecosystems, and a variety of socioeconomic aspects more adversely. Specifically, the compound precipitation–temperature extremes (hot-dry and hot-wet) are considered, and the entire Indian mainland is regarded as the study region that spans over a wide variety of climatic regimes and wide variation of population density. The developed copula-based statistical method evaluates the change in population exposure to the compound extremes across the past (1981–2020) and future (near future: 2021–60 and far future: 2061–2100) due to climate change. The results indicate an increase of more than 10 million person-year exposure from the compound extremes across many regions of the country, considering both near and far future periods. Densely populated regions have experienced more significant changes in hot-wet extremes as compared with the hot-dry extremes in the past, and the same is projected to continue in the future. The increase is as much as sixfold in many parts of the country, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southernmost coastal regions, identified as the future hotspots with the maximum increase in exposure under all the projected warming and population scenarios. The study helps to identify the regions that may need greater attention based on the risks of population exposure to compound extremes in a warmer future. Significance Statement: How is the growing population being affected now, and in the future, how will it be affected due to climate change induced compound extreme events? This study explores this societal consequence in terms of population exposure for the most populous country, India. An increase of more than 10 million person-year exposure from the precipitation–temperature compound extremes across many regions is indicated. Densely populated regions are expected to experience enhanced population exposure to hot-wet extremes as compared with the hot-dry extremes. Furthermore, the maximum increase in population exposure to compound extremes is expected across the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southern coastal regions of India. The outcome of the study will be helpful for adopting socioeconomic decisions toward the welfare of society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models face limitations in their ability to accurately represent highly variable atmospheric phenomena. To resolve fine‐scale physical processes, allowing for local impact assessments, downscaling techniques are essential. We propose spateGAN, a novel approach for spatio‐temporal downscaling of precipitation data using conditional generative adversarial networks. Our method is based on a video super‐resolution approach and trained on 10 years of country‐wide radar observations for Germany. It simultaneously increases the spatial and temporal resolution of coarsened precipitation observations from 32 to 2 km and from 1 hr to 10 min. Our experiments indicate that the ensembles of generated temporally consistent rainfall fields are in high agreement with the observational data. Spatial structures with plausible advection were accurately generated. Compared to trilinear interpolation and a classical convolutional neural network, the generative model reconstructs the resolution‐dependent extreme value distribution with high skill. It showed a high fractions skill score of 0.6 (spatio‐temporal scale: 32 km and 1 hr) for rainfall intensities over 15 mm h−1 and a low relative bias of 3.35%. A power spectrum analysis confirmed that the probabilistic downscaling ability of our model further increased its skill. We observed that neural network predictions may be interspersed by recurrent structures not related to rainfall climatology, which should be a known issue for future studies. We were able to mitigate them by using an appropriate model architecture and model selection process. Our findings suggest that spateGAN offers the potential to complement and further advance the development of climate model downscaling techniques, due to its performance and computational efficiency. Plain Language Summary: Natural disasters like floods, hail, or landslides originate from precipitation. Global climate models are an important tool to understand these hazards and derive expected changes in a future climate. However, they operate on spatial and temporal scales that limit the regional ability to reflect their small‐scale characteristics. This has led to the development of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Due to their computational efficiency, machine learning algorithms recently got increased attention as a method for improving the spatial resolution of climate data. Here, we describe a new deep learning model that allows to simultaneously increasing both the temporal and spatial resolution of precipitation data. Our presented approach enhances the spatial resolution by a factor of 16 and the temporal resolution by a factor of 6. The generated rain fields are hardly identifiable as artificially generated and exhibit the typical structure, movement, and distribution of observed rain fields. Key Points: High performance simultaneous spatial and temporal precipitation downscaling enabled by 3D convolution approachGeneration of realistic high‐resolution ensembles using probabilistic conditional generative adversarial networksLow computational effort compared to dynamical downscaling approaches [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from five different RCMs run in two experiments from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) are applied together with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to assess the future availability of water in the upper Jordan River. Simulation results for 1976-2000 show that the modeling system was able to reasonably reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain without bias correction of the precipitation input. For the future climate in the area, the applied CORDEX models indicate an increasing annual mean temperature for 2031-60 by 1.8 K above the 1971-2000 mean and by 2.6 K for 2071-2100. The simulated ensemble mean precipitation is predicted to decrease by 16.3% in the first period and 22.1% at the end of the century. In relation to the mean for 1976-2000, the discharge of the upper Jordan River is simulated to decrease by 7.4% until 2060 and by 17.5% until 2100, together with a reduction of high river flow years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of hydrological and hydrometeorological water-balance-based methods to estimate monthly runoff is analyzed. Such an analysis also allows for the examination of the closure of water budgets at different spatial (continental and catchment) and temporal (monthly, seasonal, and annual) scales. For this analysis, different combinations of gridded observations [Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Climatic Research Unit (CRU), and University of Delaware (DEL)], atmospheric reanalysis models [Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)], partially model-based datasets [Global Land Surface Evaporation: The Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Global Evapotranspiration Project (MOD16), and FLUXNET Multi-Tree Ensemble (FLUXNET MTE)], and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-derived water storage changes are employed. The derived ensemble of hydrological and hydrometeorological budget-based runoff estimates, together with results from different land surface hydrological models [Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and the land-only version of MERRA (MERRA-Land)] and a simple predictor based on the precipitation-runoff ratio, is compared with observed monthly in situ runoff for 96 catchments of different sizes and climatic conditions worldwide. Despite significant shortcomings of the budget-based methods over many catchments, the evaluation allows for the demarcation of areas with consistently reasonable runoff estimates. Good agreement was particularly observed when runoff followed a dominant annual cycle like the Amazon. This holds true also for catchments with an area far below the spatial resolution of GRACE, like the Rhine. Over catchments with low or nearly constant runoff, the budget-based approaches do not provide realistic runoff estimates because of significant biases in the input datasets. In general, no specific data combination could be identified that consistently performed over all catchments. Thus, the performance over a specific single catchment cannot be extrapolated to other regions. Only in few cases do specific dataset combinations provide reasonable water budget closure; in most cases, significant imbalances remain for all the applied datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971-2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971-2099. Because only one regional-global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976-2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976-2000 mean for the period 2031-60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070-99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976-2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Near-surface water vapor and precipitation are central hydrometeorological observables which are still difficult to quantify accurately above the point scale. Both play an important role in modeling and remote sensing of the hydrologic cycle. We present details on the development of a new microwave transmission experiment that is capable of providing line integrated estimates of both humidity and precipitation near the surface. The system is located at a hydrometeorological test site (TERENO-prealpine) in Southern Germany. Path length is kept short at 660m to minimize the likelihood of different precipitation types and intensities along the path. It uses a monostatic configuration with a combined transmitter/receiver unit and a 70cm trihedral reflector. The transmitter/receiver unit simultaneously operates at 22.235GHz and 34.8GHz with a pulse repetition rate of 25kHz and alternating horizontal and vertical polarization, which enable the analysis of the impact of the changing drop size distribution on the rain rate retrieval. Due to the coherence and the high phase stability of the system, it allows for a sensitive observation of the propagation phase delay. Thereof, time series of line integrated refractivity can be determined. This proxy is then post-processed to absolute humidity and compared to station observations. We present the design of the system and show an analysis of selected periods for both, precipitation and humidity observations. The theoretically expected dependence of attenuation and differential attenuation on the DSD was reproduced with experimental data. A decreased performance was observed when using a fixed A–R power law. Humidity data derived from the phase delay measurement showed good agreement with in situ measurements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Driving data and physical parametrizations can significantly impact the performance of regional dynamical atmospheric models in reproducing hydrometeorologically relevant variables. Our study addresses the water budget sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model System WRF (WRF-ARW) with respect to two cumulus parametrizations (Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller-Janjić), two global driving reanalyses (ECMWF ERA-INTERIM and NCAR/NCEP NNRP), time variant and invariant sea surface temperature and optional gridded nudging. The skill of global and downscaled models is evaluated against different gridded observations for precipitation, 2 m-temperature, evapotranspiration, and against measured discharge time-series on a monthly basis. Multi-year spatial deviation patterns and basin aggregated time series are examined for four globally distributed regions with different climatic characteristics: Siberia, Northern and Western Africa, the Central Australian Plane, and the Amazonian tropics. The simulations cover the period from 2003 to 2006 with a horizontal mesh of 30 km. The results suggest a high sensitivity of the physical parametrizations and the driving data on the water budgets of the regional atmospheric simulations. While the global reanalyses tend to underestimate 2 m-temperature by 0.2-2 K, the regional simulations are typically 0.5-3 K warmer than observed. Many configurations show difficulties in reproducing the water budget terms, e.g. with long-term mean precipitation biases of 150 mm month and higher. Nevertheless, with the water budget analysis viable setups can be deduced for all four study regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study describes the implementation of a one way coupled high resolution numerical weather and river runoff forecasting system within the Perl Object Environment (POE) framework and presents its application and performance analysis for the Alpine catchment of the Ammer River located in southern Germany. The simulation system employs the hydrological water balance model WaSiM-ETH run at 100 m × 100 m grid resolution one way coupled with the numerical weather prediction model (NWP) MM5 driven at 3.5 km grid cell resolution. The state and event driven forecasting system implements the input data download, input data provision via SOAP based WEB service and the run of the hydrology model with observed and with predicted NWP meteorology fields. It applies a lagged ensemble prediction system (EPS) taking into account combination of recent and previous NWP forecasts. The simulation system has been setup and designed for flood forecasting in the alpine environment. It is run operationally as well as in extended time slice experiments for all episodes with highest observed runoff in the period 01.10.2005–30.09.2010. The system application demonstrates the great potential of the POE based system in networking, distributed computing as well in the setup of various experiments. The river runoff simulation results show high correlation with observed runoff when driven with precipitation interpolated from station observations. The performance of the forecast shows limitations resulting from deficient timing and amount of the predicted rainfall in the complex mountainous area. Forecast skills were improved after application of a lagged ensemble prediction system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The three state-of-the-art global atmospheric reanalysis models-namely, ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA; NASA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; NCEP)-are analyzed and compared with independent observations in the period between 1989 and 2006. Comparison of precipitation and temperature estimates from the three models with gridded observations reveals large differences between the reanalyses and also of the observation datasets. A major source of uncertainty in the observations is the spatial distribution and change of the number of gauges over time. In South America, active measuring stations were reduced from 4267 to 390. The quality of precipitation estimates from the reanalyses strongly depends on the geographic location, as there are significant differences especially in tropical regions. The closure of the water cycle in the three reanalyses is analyzed by estimating long-term mean values for precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and moisture flux divergence. Major shortcomings in the moisture budgets of the datasets are mainly due to inconsistencies of the net precipitation minus evaporation and evapotranspiration, respectively, ( P − E) estimates over the oceans and landmasses. This imbalance largely originates from the assimilation of radiance sounding data from the NOAA-15 satellite, which results in an unrealistic increase of oceanic P − E in the MERRA and CFSR budgets. Overall, ERA-Interim shows both a comparatively reasonable closure of the terrestrial and atmospheric water balance and a reasonable agreement with the observation datasets. The limited performance of the three state-of-the-art reanalyses in reproducing the hydrological cycle, however, puts the use of these models for climate trend analyses and long-term water budget studies into question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has provided gravity-derived observations of variations in the terrestrial water storage. Because of the lack of suitable direct observations of large-scale water storage changes, a validation of the GRACE observations remains difficult. An approach that allows the evaluation of terrestrial water storage variations from GRACE by a comparison with those derived from aerologic water budgets using the atmospheric moisture flux divergence is presented. In addition to reanalysis products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, high-resolution regional atmospheric simulations were produced with the Weather Research and Forecast modeling system (WRF) and validated against globally gridded observational data of precipitation and 2-m temperature. The study encompasses six different climatic and hydrographic regions: the Amazon basin, the catchments of Lena and Yenisei, central Australia, the Sahara, the Chad depression, and the Niger. Atmospheric-related uncertainty bounds based on the range of the ensemble of estimated terrestrial water storage variations were computed using different configurations of the regional climate model WRF and different global reanalyses. Atmospheric-related uncertainty ranges with those originating from the GRACE products of GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, the Center for Space Research, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory were also compared. It is shown that dynamically downscaled atmospheric fields are able to add value to global reanalyses, depending on the geographical location of the considered catchments. Global and downscaled atmospheric water budgets are in reasonable agreement (r ≈ 0.7 − 0.9) with GRACE-derived terrestrial mass variations. However, atmospheric- and satellite-based approaches show shortcomings for regions with small storage change rates (<20-25 mm month−1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Scientifically sound decisions in sustainable water management are usually based on hydrological modeling which can only be accomplished by meteorological driving information. Especially in regions with weak infrastructure this task is hampered by limited hydro-meteorological information in sufficient spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated three approaches to provide required meteorological fields driving the distributed hydrological model: the results of the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 which are available near real time, the TRMM product 3B42 available with approximately one month delay, and station data available with a delay of one year or more. The study site is the White Volta catchment in the semi-arid environment of West Africa. The results for 2004 show that the meteorological model is able to provide meteorological input data for near real time water balance estimations. In this study the TRMM product does not improve the simulation results. Besides missing important meteorological data, also gridded information on land surface properties (albedo, LAI, etc.) is usually difficult to obtain, albeit it is an essential input for distributed hydrological models. This information is commonly taken from “static” tables depending on the land use. Satellite remote sensing provides worldwide spatially detailed information on land surface properties which is particularly suitable for large regions in remote settings. Therefore the MODIS products for albedo and LAI were processed to annual time series including the identification and replacement of low quality observations by interpolation. The impact using MODIS data on the spatial distribution of water balance variables occurs mainly on local scale. The hydrological simulations using MODIS LAI and albedo values result in higher annual evapotranspiration and lower total discharge sums for 2004. Altogether it is concluded that hydrological decision support systems in regions with weak infrastructure can benefit significantly from the integration of atmospheric modeling and satellite-derived land surface data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A novel approach for upscaling land-surface parameters based on inverse stochastic surface-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling is presented. It allows estimation of effective parameters that yield scale invariant outputs e.g. for sensible and latent heat fluxes and evaporative fraction. The general methodology is used to estimate effective parameters for the Oregon State University Land-Surface Model, including surface albedo, surface emissivity, roughness length, minimum stomatal resistance, leaf area index, vapour pressure deficit factor, solar insolation factor and the Clapp–Hornberger soil parameter. Upscaling laws were developed that map the mean and standard deviation of the distributed land-surface parameters at the subgrid scale to their corresponding effective parameter at the grid scale. Both linear and bi-parabolic upscaling laws were obtained for the roughness length. The bi-parabolic upscaling law fitted best for the remaining land-surface parameters, except surface albedo and emissivity, which were best fitted with linear upscaling laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Inverse stochastic modelling and direct moment propagation is applied for deriving effective land surface parameters of a Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) model. Special attention is given to the proper representation of latent heat fluxes at grid scale when an underlying subgrid-scale heterogeneity is assumed. Derived effective land surface and vegetation parameters yield the same total latent heat fluxes on the grid scale as the averaged heat fluxes on the subgrid-scale. Upscaling relations are derived that relate mean and variance (first and second moment) of subgrid-scale heterogeneity to a corresponding effective parameter at grid-scale. Explicit upscaling relations are exemplary derived for (a) land surface property parameters roughness length, albedo, emissivity and (b) vegetation parameters wilting point soil moisture, field capacity, leaf area index, vegetation fraction, and minimal and maximal stomata resistance. It is shown that the value of effective parameters depends on the sign of the first and second derivatives of aggregated fluxes with respect to the parameter. It is demonstrated that the Second-Order-First-Moment (SOFM) Method yields results that are comparable to those obtained with inverse stochastic Monte Carlo simulations. Effective parameters were found to be independent of meteorological forcing conditions and initial conditions for a 7-day time period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Sustainable decisions in water resources management require scientifically sound information on water availability. Central support in hydrological decision making arises from hydrological modelling which in turn depends on meteorological input. This work intends to show how integration of atmospheric science and hydrology, particularly the joint modelling of atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle, allows to provide decision support for two fundamental problems in sustainable water management: (1) the impact of global climate change on water availability, and (2) the near-real time estimation of recent resources and fluxes. The performance of joint atmospheric-hydrological simulations and its application for decision support is demonstrated for the Volta Basin of West Africa. First, the impact of global warming on water availability in the Volta Basin is assessed by joint regional climate-hydrology simulations. Time slices of ECHAM4 global climate scenario IS92a are dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 9×9km2 with the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 and the terrestrial water balance is subsequently calculated by the distributed hydrological model WaSiM. Results indicate a slight increase in total annual precipitation by 5%, but also a significant decrease of precipitation in April (in total 20%, for specific regions up to 70%), at the beginning of the rainy season. Terrestrial water balance variables react highly nonlinear to changes in precipitation and temperature. Second, the performance of joint atmospheric-hydrological simulations as a tool for near-real-time, model based water monitoring system for the White Volta subcatchment is assessed. Operational available GFS (Global Forecasting System) global analyses are dynamically downscaled to 9×9km2 resolution and meteorological fields subsequently applied for calculating the terrestrial water balance. Albeit a bias in precipitation simulations can be observed when comparing to point measurements, modelled river discharge agrees well with observations in 2004. It is concluded that particularly in areas with weak infrastructures, where few meteorological observations are available (or only in long delay), atmospheric models can provide reasonable meteorological information for hydrological modelling and therefore facilitate decision support. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Sustainable decisions in hydrological risk management require detailed information on the probability density function (pdf) of the model output. Only then probabilities for the failure of a specific management option or the exceedance of critical thresholds (e.g. of pollutants) can be derived. A new approach of uncertainty propagation in hydrological equations is developed that directly propagates the probability density functions of uncertain model input parameters into the corresponding probability density functions of model output. The basics of the methodology are presented and central applications to different disciplines in hydrology are shown. This work focuses on the following basic hydrological equations: (1) pumping test analysis (Theis-equation, propagation of uncertainties in recharge and transmissivity), (2) 1-dim groundwater contaminant transport equation (Gauss-equation, propagation of uncertainties in decay constant and dispersivity), (3) evapotranspiration estimation (Penman–Monteith-equation, propagation of uncertainty in roughness length). The direct propagation of probability densities is restricted to functions that are monotonically increasing or decreasing or that can be separated in corresponding monotonic branches so that inverse functions can be derived. In case no analytic solutions for inverse functions could be derived, semi-analytical approximations were used. It is shown that the results of direct probability density function propagation are in perfect agreement with results obtained from corresponding Monte Carlo derived frequency distributions. Direct pdf propagation, however, has the advantage that is yields exact solutions for the resulting hydrological pdfs rather than approximating discontinuous frequency distributions. It is additionally shown that the type of the resulting pdf depends on the specific values (order of magnitude, respectively) of the standard deviation of the input pdf. The dependency of skewness and kurtosis of the propagated pdf on the coefficient of variation of input parameter uncertainty is detected to be non-monotonic with distinctive maxima. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A popular method for the determination of catchment zones is the construction by particle tracking. A new approach is presented, allowing to quantify the uncertainty of particle paths and catchment zones by the direct propagation of uncertainties of aquifer parameters into the uncertainty of the location of contaminating particles. This is achieved by applying the conditional First-Order Second Moment (FOSM) method to both the discretised groundwater flow and the particle tracking equations. Beside of the mean particle tracks, the standard deviations (σ x , σ y) of the location (x, y) of a particle within the 2-dimensional flow field are directly calculated. This allows calculating probabilities for which particles can be found within their ‘uncertainty cloud’. By starting particles at all gridpoints of the groundwater model this method is applied to the delineation of stochastic well head protection zones. The performance of the proposed new method is shown for the determination of capture zones for an aquifer in Gambach (State of Hessia, Germany). It is demonstrated that the method yields comparable results to a corresponding conditional Monte Carlo approach. Detailed statistical analysis of the conditional Monte Carlo simulations showed the following additional central results: [(1)] Conditioning with piezometric head information in the Monte Carlo approach yielded a high correlation between the transmissivity values and the recharge values. Subsequent regression analysis for the Monte Carlo results revealed that the given head measurements together with the random recharge values determined the transmissivity values used to describe the aquifer. The derived explicit linear relationships allow to calculate the transmissivity values directly from the random recharge values without inverse modelling for this study. [(2)] A covariance analysis of estimated parameters was performed. Derived confidence ellipses showed narrow confidence bounds for estimated recharge and transmissivity values. [(3)] While frequency distributions for velocities in the conditional Monte Carlo approach follow a log-normal distribution, this is not the case for piezometric heads. Here, Weibull-, Rayleigh-, FRatio and Gamma-Distribution perform more satisfactorily, in particular in the reproduction of the observed skewness of the output distributions. As the proposed FOSM-method is based on a Taylor Series approximation, its application is restricted to moderate cases of model input parameters uncertainty. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: When global climate scenarios are dynamically downscaled to catchment scale or when improvements of short term flood forecasts are discussed, the basic question arises: how reliable do meteorological models reproduce meteorological fields? Can they be used for driving hydrological models? Apart from this, meteorological modelling may facilitate hydrological modelling efforts when no or little meteorological station data is available. Against this background we performed coupled high resolution meteorological–hydrological simulations for the alpine and orographic complex catchment of the river Mangfall (State of Bavaria, Germany). The area of the catchment is around 1100km2. Within this task we coupled (in 1-way manner) the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 with the distributed hydrological model WaSiM. The hydrological model was calibrated at 18 gauges using interpolated meteorological station data and applied in 150×150m2 horizontal resolution. Global reanalyses were dynamically downscaled with MM5 from 100×100km2 resolution to 2×2km2 using four nests. The quality of the meteorological model was analysed by comparison to upper air and surface observations. A height dependent bias between station-based and MM5-based simulation was observed: the MM5-based interpolation of precipitation yielded 21% less total yearly precipitation in the catchment compared to the station-based interpolation (1446 vs. 1791mm). Even though not all details of observed runoff were met by the coupled meteorological–hydrological simulations, it is demonstrated that in general observed runoff was reproduced reasonable for the period investigated (1997). Difficulties to describe observed runoff during snow-accumulation and snow-melt processes were observed in both the ‘station-based’ and coupled simulations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate model simulations typically exhibit a bias, which can be corrected using statistical approaches. In this study, a geostatistical approach for bias correction of daily precipitation at ungauged locations is presented. The method utilizes a double quantile mapping with dry day correction for future periods. The transfer function of the bias correction for the ungauged locations is established using distribution functions estimated by ordinary kriging with anisotropic variograms. The methodology was applied to the daily precipitation simulations of the entire CORDEX‐Africa ensemble for a study region located in the West African Sudanian Savanna. This ensemble consists of 23 regional climate models (RCM) that were run for three different future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The evaluation of the approach for a historical 50‐year period (1950–2005) showed that the method can reduce the inherent strong precipitation bias of RCM simulations, thereby reproducing the main climatological features of the observed data. Moreover, the bias correction technique preserves the climate change signal of the uncorrected RCM simulations. However, the ensemble spread is increased due to an overestimation of the rainfall probability of uncorrected RCM simulations. The application of the bias correction method to the future period (2006–2100) revealed that annual precipitation increases for most models in the near (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) with a mean increase of up to 165mm⋅a−1 (18%). An analysis of the monthly and daily time series showed a slightly delayed onset and intensification of the rainy season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The West African Monsoon (WAM) system plays a crucial role in the West African climate system because it transports moisture from the Atlantic Ocean into the subcontinent in summer. This study evaluates the capability of the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) to simulate the characteristic reproduce the WAM system and the associated rainfall-producing features. The MPAS model was used to perform a 30-year global climate simulation (1981–2010) at a regular grid (uniform resolution of 60 km). The simulation was initialized with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CSFR) dataset. The results showed that MPAS simulate well the rainfall pattern over West Africa and reproduces the different phases of the monsoon dynamics system (i.e., the northward progression, the peak period, and the southward retreat). The model also reasonably replicates the pattern of the zonal components of wind and the vertical velocity. However, MPAS underestimates the orographic rainfall over the Guinea Coast, Jos Plateau, and Mount Cameroon. It also underestimates the vertical velocity and zonal wind magnitudes over the region. In addition, the model features a weaker temperature gradient than in the reanalysis. Understanding and correcting the sources of these model biases will enhance the suitability of MPAS for weather and seasonal forecasts over West Africa. Research highlights: In this study, we investigated the ability of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) to simulate the West African monsoon rainfall, the associated atmospheric features controlling the variability of the seasonal and annual cycle, and the thermal wind conditions. First, the model is initialized using the CSFR reanalysis. Then, we run the model simulation for 30 years, from 1981 to 2010, using a regular grid (uniform resolution of 60 km). We showed that the model realistically simulated the spatial pattern of rainfall over West Africa. However, it has some problems when it comes to capturing the monsoon features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in mean and extreme precipitation characteristics with changing climate may lead to an increase in frequency of hydrological extremes. For studying the impacts of the changing climate on hydrological systems, General Circulation Model (GCM)/Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated precipitation are used. However, these products should be bias‐corrected before used in hydrological simulations to predict hydrological extremes. Most of the existing bias‐correction techniques suffer from either of two limitations – (a) they only reduce bias in selected precipitation quantile (either mean or extreme values), and/or (b) they exclude zero values from the analysis, even though their presence is significant in daily precipitation. In this study, a stochastic copula‐based bias‐correction method (Maity et al., J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 2019, 595), henceforth RMPH method, is used that corrects the bias in any quantile (mean and/or extreme values) of daily precipitation including zero values. The RMPH method is applied across Indian mainland to correct bias in simulated precipitation from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Due to diverse climatic conditions across India, the quality of bias‐corrected precipitation is studied separately for different meteorologically homogenous regions of the country. Despite non‐uniform distribution of raingauge stations for observed precipitation, the superiority of the bias‐corrected precipitation (from RMPH method) in correcting bias and retaining the seasonal variation across the country is evident when compared with tradition bias‐correction approach like quantile mapping. The new bias‐corrected precipitation dataset developed is particularly suited for hydrological simulations, formulating extreme event mitigation strategies and climate change adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most reliable areal precipitation estimation is usually generated via combinations of different measurements. Path-averaged rainfall rates can be derived from commercial microwave links (CMLs), where attenuation of the emitted radiation is strongly related to rainfall rate. CMLs can be combined with data from other rainfall measurements or can be used individually. They are available almost worldwide and often represent the only opportunity for ground-based measurement in data-scarce regions. However, deriving rainfall estimates from CML data requires extensive data processing. The separation of the attenuation time series into rainy and dry periods (rain event detection) is the most important step in this processing and has a high impact on the resulting rainfall estimates. In this study, we investigate the suitability of Meteosat Second Generation Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (MSG SEVIRI) satellite data as an auxiliary-data-based (ADB) rain event detection method. We compare this method with two time-series-based (TSB) rain event detection methods. We used data from 3748 CMLs in Germany for 4 months in the summer of 2021 and data from the two SEVIRI-derived products PC and PC-Ph. We analyzed all rain event detection methods for different rainfall intensities, differences between day and night, and their influence on the performance of rainfall estimates from individual CMLs. The radar product RADKLIM-YW was used for validation. The results showed that both SEVIRI products are promising candidates for ADB rainfall detection, yielding only slightly worse results than the TSB methods, with the main advantage that the ADB method does not rely on extensive validation for different CML datasets. The main uncertainty of all methods was found for light rain. Slightly better results were obtained during the day than at night due to the reduced availability of SEVIRI channels at night. In general, the ADB methods led to improvements for CMLs performing comparatively weakly using TSB methods. Based on these results, combinations of ADB and TSB methods were developed by emphasizing their specific advantages. Compared to basic and advanced TSB methods, these combinations improved the Matthews correlation coefficient of the rain event detection from 0.49 (or 0.51) to 0.59 during the day and from 0.41 (or 0.50) to 0.55 during the night. Additionally, these combinations increased the number of true-positive classifications, especially for light rainfall compared to the TSB methods, and reduced the number of false negatives while only leading to a slight increase in false-positive classifications. Our results show that utilizing MSG SEVIRI data in CML data processing significantly increases the quality of the rain event detection step, in particular for CMLs which are challenging to process with TSB methods. While the improvement is useful even for applications in Germany, we see the main potential of using ADB methods in data-scarce regions like West Africa where extensive validation is not possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines the suitability of four land surface schemes (LSSs) in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over different West Africa's (WA) climatological zones, namely Guinea, Savanna, and Sahel. The four LSSs include Noah, Noah (Multiparameterization) MP, Noah MP with the groundwater option (Noah GW), and Community Land Model Version 4 (CLM4). A 3-month simulation was carried out with each LSS during July–September 2012. Temperature and dew point temperature (Dpt) were evaluated using the ERA5 dataset, while precipitation was evaluated using the TRMM product. Based on the three variables, CLM4 is most suitable for the Guinea zone; Noah, Noah MP, and CLM4 perform equally well for Savanna; and Noah MP is most suitable for the Sahel zone. In general, and over all zones, Noah MP is most suitable for precipitation simulation, while CLM4 is the best for dew point temperature as Noah MP and Noah GW are equally suitable for 2 m temperature. Noah GW overestimates surface moisture, altering surface fluxes, increasing evaporative fraction, and increasing convective activities (especially in semi-arid areas), which led to a significant bias in temperature and precipitation. Also, over the Savanna and Sahel zone, a strong African Easterly Jet (AEJ) with a weak Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in Noah led to lower rainfall. In contrast, weak AEJ with strong TEJ in Noah MP and Noah GW caused higher rainfall. Further studies would be to evaluate the sensitivity of each LSS under different initial conditions, and their land-atmosphere interactions strength over the zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cover image is based on the Advanced Review Commercial microwave link networks for rainfall observation: Assessment of the current status and future challenges, by Christian Chwala and Harald Kunstmann, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1337 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate observation of the high spatio‐temporal variability of rainfall is crucial for hydrometeorological applications. However, the existing observations from rain gauges and weather radars have individual shortcomings that can introduce considerable errors and uncertainties. A fairly new technique to get additional rainfall information is the usage of the country‐wide commercial microwave link (CML) networks for rainfall estimation by exploiting the measurements of rain‐induced attenuation along these CMLs. This technique has seen an increasing number of applications during the last years. Different methods have been developed to process the noisy raw data and to derive rainfall fields. It has been shown that CMLs can provide important line‐integrated rainfall information that complements pointwise rain gauge and spatial radar observations. There exist several limitations, though. Robustly dealing with the erratic fluctuations of the CML raw data is a challenge, in particular with the growing number of CMLs. How to correctly compensate for the biases from the effect of wet antenna attenuation for different CMLs also remains a crucial research question. Progress is additionally hampered by the lack of method intercomparisons, which in turn is hampered by restricted data sharing. Hence, collaboration is key for further advancements, also with regard to extended interaction with the CML network operators, which is a prerequisite to achieve increased data availability. In regions where rain gauges and weather radars are available, CMLs are a welcome complement. But in developing countries, which are characterized by weak technical infrastructure and which often suffer from water stress, additional rainfall information is a necessity. CMLs could play a crucial role in this respect. This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Hydrological ProcessesScience of Water > Water QualityScience of Water > Methods Attenuation data from commercial microwave links can provided valuable rainfall information. But there are several challenges along the way from raw data access to rainfall fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While weather forecasts are used for the warning of flood events and climate projections for long-term climate adaptation measures, it is the knowledge of the coming months that is crucial for the management and control of water reservoirs, e.g. for power generation or for irrigation. This is particularly relevant in regions characterized by dry seasons, i.e. semi-arid areas. In semi-arid regions, unlike in arid regions, much can be achieved with sustainable and science-based water resources management. Our study addresses the regionalization of globally available seasonal forecasts to support local water resources management and decision-makers in semi-arid regions. We investigate the performance of the global seasonal predictions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5) with forecast horizons up to 7 months in advance for selected semi-arid target regions. These include the catchments of the Rio Sao Francisco in northeastern Brazil, the Rio Chira in Ecuador / Peru and the Karun in Iran. The uncertainties in the global seasonal forecasting system are covered by ensemble predictions. As a measure of the quality of the seasonal ensemble predictions of precipitation and temperature, we analyze accuracy (mean absolute error skill score), overall performance (continuous ranked probability skill score), sharpness (interquantile range skill score) and reliability. The ensemble forecasts are bias corrected with a quantile-quantile transformation and compared with global gridded satellite data (GPM) and station observation data. Results generally show higher performance measures for the retrospective precipitation forecasts of the Rio Sao Francisco area than for the Rio Chira or the Karun area. For the Rio Sao Francisco area, the seasonal predictions of the rainfall over the four main months of the rainy season are even more efficient than statistical reference forecasts up to two months ahead.One reason for the limited performance of the global seasonal forecasts in the catchment areas of the Rio Chira and the Karun can be the complex topography and the inadequate horizontal resolution of 35 km of the global forecasting system for regional applications. We therefore use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale the global forecasts. Our dynamical downscaling is progressively nesting from 35 km to 9 km and finally to 3 km. Finally, these refined seasonal predictions will not only serve for hydrometeorological drought forecasts in the catchment areas, but also serve as driving data in further subsequent impact modelling for hydrological-, sediment- and ecosystem modeling within the international framework of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the reproduction of observed river discharge in a coupled system consisting from a regional climate model (RCM) and a distributed hydrology model (HM), where the HM is applied to route the runoff simulated by the RCM. The coupled system joins MPI and OpenMP based parallel codes of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) regional climate model version 5 and the hydrology model WaSiM-ETH version 9 within the coupling environment provided by the OpenPALM model coupler.Application area is the complex terrain catchment of the Ammer River (600 km2) located in the Ammergau Alps in Southern Germany, where the HM runs on a 100 m grid in UTM projection with RCM input on rotated grid coordinates that is received every full model hour and interpolated on to this grid by the IDW method. Our contribution addresses general issues of hydrological simulations driven with biased RCM data input. Then it presents the coupled model system, its advantages and limitations, and the evaluation of the obtained results in comparison with measurements from river gauges and climate stations operated within the long term TERENO preAlpine observatory. Special attention is given to the investigation of periods with extremely high river flows applying highly resolved RCM runs in convection permitting mode at 0.03 degree and 0.01 degree grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using signal level measurements from commercial microwave links (CMLs) has proven to be a valuable tool for near-ground 2D rain mapping. Such mapping is commonly based on spatial interpolation methods, where each CML is considered as a point measurement instrument located at its center. The validity of the resulted maps is tested against radar observations. However, since radar has limitations, accuracy of CML-based reconstructed rain maps remains unclear. Here we provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of CML-based spatial interpolation methods for rain mapping by conducting a systematic analysis: first by quantifying the performance of maps generated from semisynthetic CML data, and thereafter turning to real-data analysis of the same rain events. A radar product of the German Weather Service serves as ground truth for generating semisynthetic data, in which several temporal aggregations of the radar rainfall fields are used to create different decorrelation distances. The study was done over an area of 225 × 245 km2 in southern Germany, with 808 CMLs. We compare the performance of two spatial interpolation methods—inverse distance weighting and ordinary kriging—in two cases: where each CML is represented as a single point, and where three points are used. The points' measurements values in the latter are determined using an iterative algorithm. The analysis of both cases is based on a 48-h rain event. The results reconfirm the validity of CML-based rain retrieval, showing a slight systematic performance improvement when an iterative algorithm is applied so each CML is represented by more than a single point, independent of the interpolation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation events and associated flash floods caused by synoptic cyclonic systems profoundly impact society and the environment, particularly in arid regions. This study brings forward a satellite-reanalysis-based approach to quantify extreme precipitation characteristics over the Sinai Peninsula (SiP) in Egypt from a statistical–synoptic perspective for the period of 2001–2020. With a multi-statistical approach developed in this research, SiP's wet and dry periods are determined. Using satellite observations of precipitation and a set of derived precipitation indices, we characterize the spatiotemporal variations of extreme rainfall climatologies across the SiP. Then, using the reanalysis datasets, synoptic systems responsible for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events along with the major tracks of cyclones during the wet and dry periods are described. Our results indicate that trends and spatial patterns of the rainfall events across the region are inconsistent in time and space. The highest precipitation percentiles (∼20 mm per month), frequencies (∼15 d per month with rainfall ≥10 mm d -1), standard deviations (∼9 mm month per month), and monthly ratios (∼18 %) are estimated in the northern and northeastern parts of the region during the wet period, especially in early winter; also, a substantial below-average precipitation condition (drier trend) is clearly observed in most parts except for the south. Mediterranean cyclones accompanied by the Red Sea and Persian troughs are responsible for the majority of extreme rainfall events year-round. A remarkable spatial relationship is found between SiP's rainfall and the atmospheric variables of sea level pressure, wind direction, and vertical velocity. A cyclone-tracking analysis indicates that 125 cyclones (with rainfall ≥10 mm d -1) formed within, or transferred to, the Mediterranean basin and precipitated over the SiP during wet periods compared to 31 such cyclones during dry periods. It is estimated around 15 % of cyclones with sufficient rainfall >40 mm d -1 would be capable of leading to flash floods during the wet period. This study, therefore, sheds new light on the extreme precipitation characteristics over the SiP and its association with dominant synoptic-scale mechanisms over the eastern Mediterranean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most reliable areal precipitation estimation is usually generated via combinations of different measurements and devices by merging their individual advantages. Path-averaged rain rate can be derived from Commercial Microwave Links (CML), where attenuation of the emitted radiation is strongly related with rainfall rate. CMLs can be combined with data from other rainfall measurements or used individually. They are available almost worldwide and often represent the only opportunity of ground-based measurement in data scarce regions. Deriving rainfall estimates from CML data requires extensive data processing, though. The separation of the attenuation time series in rainy and dry periods (rain event detection) is the most important step in this processing and largely determines the quality of the resulting rainfall estimates. In this study, we investigate the suitability of Meteosat Second Generation Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (MSG SEVIRI) satellite data as an auxiliary-data-based (ADB) rain event detection method. We compare this method with two time series-based (TSB) rain event detection methods. The investigation uses data from 3901 CMLs in Germany for four months in summer 2021 and is carried out for the two SEVIRI-derived products PC and PC-Ph. We analyse all rain event detection methods for different precipitation intensity, differences between day and night, as well as their influence on the performance of rainfall estimates from individual CMLs. The radar product RADKLIM-YW is used for validation. The results show that both SEVIRI products are promising candidates for ADB rainfall detection methods and led to at least equivalent results as the TSB methods. The main uncertainty of all methods was found for light rain. Slightly better results were obtained during the day than at night, which is caused by dew formation on CML antennas and the reduced availability of SEVIRI channels at night. In general, the ADB methods lead to improvements for CMLs performing comparatively weakly using TSB methods. Based on these results, combinations of ADB and TSB methods were developed by emphasizing their specific advantages. Compared to basic and advanced TSB methods, these combinations were able to improve the Matthews Correlation Coefficient of the rain event detection from 0.53 (0.57 resp.) to 0.62 during the day and from 0.47 (0.55 resp.) to 0.6 during the night. Our results show that utilising MSG SEVIRI data in CML data processing significantly increases the quality of the rain event detection step, in particular for CMLs which are challenging to process with TSB methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present high-resolution rainfall maps from commercial microwave link (CML) data in the city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Rainfall was quantified based on data from 100 CMLs along unique paths and interpolated to achieve rainfall maps with a 5-min temporal and 0.55-km spatial resolution for the monsoon season of 2020. Established processing methods were combined with newly developed filtering methods, minimizing the loss of data availability. The rainfall maps were analyzed qualitatively both at a 5-min and aggregated daily scales. We observed high spatiotemporal variability on the 5-min scale that cannot be captured with any existing measurement infrastructure in West Africa. For the quantitative evaluation, only one rain gauge with a daily resolution was available. Comparing the gauge data with the corresponding CML rainfall map pixel showed a high agreement, with a Pearson correlation coefficient > 0.95 and an underestimation of the CML rainfall maps of ∼10%. Because the CMLs closest to the gauge have the largest influence on the map pixel at the gauge location, we thinned out the CML network around the rain gauge synthetically in several steps and repeated the interpolation. The performance of these rainfall maps dropped only when a radius of 5 km was reached and approximately one-half of all CMLs were removed. We further compared ERA5 and GPM IMERG data with the rain gauge and found that they had much lower correlation than data from the CML rainfall maps. This clearly highlights the large benefit that CML data can provide in the data-scarce but densely populated African cities. Significance Statement: In this study, we investigate the possibility of deriving accurate high-resolution rainfall maps from commercial microwave link (CML) data in West Africa. The main challenges are the lack of reference data in this area and the adoption of existing processing tools without reference data. We show CML rainfall maps for Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, with a resolution of 5 min and 0.55 km, which is unprecedented in this region. The comparison with the only available rain gauge, which provides data only at a daily resolution, yields a Pearson correlation of >0.95. An analysis of synthetically thinned-out networks shows that this accuracy is valid for the whole domain. Comparing reanalysis and satellite data with the rain gauge and CML data showed a poor performance of these gridded reference datasets. Also, a high coincidence of temporal dynamics between CML rainfall maps and satellite products was observed. Overall, these findings support the potential of CMLs for future hydrometeorological applications in West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing climate has altered the trends and variability of precipitation and temperature globally and thereby increasing the risk of natural and social disasters, especially in coastal climatic transitional zones such as the Huaihe river basin (HRB). This paper applies the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method for bias correction and systematically evaluates the performance of the 30 Global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating precipitation and temperature over the Huaihe river basin (HRB) for 1979–2014. A suitable multi-model ensemble subset (BMME) is selected based on the Euclidean Distance (ED) synthetic metric. Results show that in comparison to the baseline period 1995–2014, precipitation (temperature) over HRB is projected to increase at the rate of around 15 mm/decade (0.1 °C/decade), 16 mm/decade (0.3 °C/decade), 20 mm/decade (0.5 °C/decade), and 15 mm/decade (0.6 °C/decade) for the period 2015–2100, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In the long-term (2081–2100), the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 32%, 27%, 35%, and 26%, under the four scenarios, respectively. The temperature is projected to remain stable or slightly decrease under SSP1-2.6 (2 °C) and SSP2-4.5 (3 °C), while will keep rising and increasing by 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 and by 4 °C under SSP3-7.0 by 2100. The isotherm and isohyet are projected to shift northwest from southeastern coastal China to inland in the future, which is likely associated with the northwestward shift of the western Pacific anticyclone in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable prediction of heavy precipitation events causing floods in a world of changing climate is crucial for the development of appropriate adaption strategies. Many attempts to provide such predictions have already been conducted but there is still much potential for improvement left. This is particularly true for statistical downscaling of heavy precipitation due to changes present in the corresponding atmospheric drivers. In this study, a circulation pattern (CP) conditional downscaling to the station level is proposed which considers occurring frequency changes of CPs. Following a strict circulation‐to‐environment approach we use atmospheric predictors to derive CPs. Subsequently, precipitation observations are used to derive CP conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of daily precipitation. Raw precipitation time series are sampled from these CDFs. Bias correction is applied to the sampled time series with quantile mapping (QM) and parametric transfer functions (PTFs) as methods being tested. The added value of this CP conditional downscaling approach is evaluated against the corresponding common non‐CP conditional approach. The performance evaluation is conducted by using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. In both cases the applied bias correction is identical. Potential added value can therefore only be attributed to the CP conditioning. It can be shown that the proposed CP conditional downscaling approach is capable of yielding more reliable and accurate downscaled daily precipitation time series in comparison to a non‐CP conditional approach. This can be seen in particular for the extreme parts of the distribution. Above the 95th percentile, an average performance gain of +0.24 and a maximum gain of +0.6 in terms of KGE is observed. These findings support the assumption of conserving and utilizing atmospheric information through CPs can be beneficial for more reliable statistical precipitation downscaling. Due to the availability of these atmospheric predictors in climate model output, the presented method is potentially suitable for downscaling precipitation projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme value analysis (EVA) is well-established to derive hydrometeorological design values for infrastructures that have to withstand extreme events. Since there is concern about increased extremes with higher hazard potential under climate change, alterations of EVA are introduced for which statistical properties are no longer assumed to be constant but vary over time. In this study, both stationary and non-stationary EVA models are used to derive design life levels (DLLs) of daily precipitation in the pre-alpine Oberland region of Southern Germany, an orographically complex region characterized by heavy precipitation events and climate change. As EVA is fraught with uncertainties, it is crucial to quantify its methodological impacts: two theoretical distributions (i.e., Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution), four different parameter estimation techniques (i.e., Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), L-moments, Generalized Maximum Likelihood Estimation (GMLE), and Bayesian estimation method) are evaluated and compared. The study reveals large methodological uncertainties. Discrepancies due to the parameter estimation methods may reach up to 45% of the mean absolute value, while differences between stationary and non-stationary models are of the same magnitude (differences in DLLs up to 40%). For the end of this century in the Oberland region, there is no robust tendency towards increased extremes found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike actual rainfall, the spatial extent of rainfall maps is often determined by administrative and political boundaries. Similarly, data from commercial microwave links (CMLs) is usually acquired on a national basis and exchange among countries is limited. Up to now, this has prohibited the generation of transboundary CML‐based rainfall maps despite the great extension of networks across the world. We present CML based transboundary rainfall maps for the first time, using independent CML data sets from Germany and the Czech Republic. We show that straightforward algorithms used for quality control strongly reduce anomalies in the results. We find that, after quality control, CML‐based rainfall maps can be generated via joint and consistent processing, and that these maps allow to seamlessly visualize rainfall events traversing the German‐Czech border. This demonstrates that quality control represents a crucial step for large‐scale (e.g., continental) CML‐based rainfall estimation. Plain Language Summary: Rainfall maps are usually based on gauge observations on the ground or radar. They are crucial for predicting or reconstructing flooding events. Commercial microwave links are special kinds of rainfall sensors. Their actual purpose is the signal propagation within a cellular network. However, since the signal is attenuated when it rains, they can also be exploited for rainfall estimation. To estimate rainfall from the observed attenuation requires careful data processing. Algorithms for that are usually adjusted to national data sets with their specific characteristics. In this study, we use, for the first time, two independent data sets of commercial microwave links (from Germany and the Czech Republic) with the aim of generating transboundary rainfall maps. As the data sets vary in many respects, several algorithms need to be adjusted and extended to allow processing them consistently. We show that it is possible to create meaningful rainfall maps of rain events that traverse the border between Germany and the Czech Republic. This can be considered a major step toward seamless rainfall maps on even larger, that is, continental scale. Key Points: Transboundary rainfall maps based on independent networks of commercial microwave links (CMLs) are generated for the first timeGerman and Czech data sets of CMLs differ significantly with respect to network characteristicsQuality control is important for heterogeneous data of CMLs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the highlights of the 1st International Workshop on Rainfall Measurement From Cellular Phone Networks in Africa (Rain Cell Africa) held in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from March 30 to April 2, 2015. Topics discussed include rainfall mapping based on the measurement of microwave signal attenuation by rainfall, the benefits of using cellular phone networks for weather observations, and the role of cellular communications networks in water resources management.

The number of solar power plants has increased in West Africa in recent years. Reliable reanalysis data and short-term forecasting of solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction models could provide an economic advantage for the planning and operation of solar power plants, especially in data-poor regions such as West Africa. This study presents a detailed assessment of different shortwave (SW) radiation schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model option Solar (WRF-Solar), with appropriate configurations for different atmospheric conditions in Ghana and the southern part of Burkina Faso. We applied two 1-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate four different SW schemes, namely, the Community Atmosphere Model, Dudhia, RRTMG, Goddard, and RRTMG without aerosol and with aerosol inputs (RRTMG_AERO). The simulation results were validated using hourly measurements from different automatic weather stations established in the study region in recent years. The results show that the RRTMG_AERO_D01 generally outperforms the other SW radiation schemes to simulate global horizontal irradiance under all-sky condition [RMSE = 235 W m−2 (19%); MAE = 172 W m−2 (14%)] and also under cloudy skies. Moreover, RRTMG_AERO_D01 shows the best performance on a seasonal scale. Both the RRTMG_AERO and Dudhia experiments indicate a good performance under clear skies. However, the sensitivity study of different SW radiation schemes in the WRF-Solar model suggests that RRTMG_AERO gives better results. Therefore, it is recommended that it be used for solar irradiance forecasts over Ghana and the southern part of Burkina Faso. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply a complex hydro-meteorological modelling chain for investigating the impact of climate change on future hydrological extremes in Central Vietnam, a region characterized by limited data availability. The modelling chain consists of six General Circulation Models (GCMs), six Regional Climate Models (RCMs), six bias correction (BC) approaches, the fully distributed Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), and extreme values analysis. Bias corrected and raw climate data are used as input for WaSiM. To derive hydrological extremes, the generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to the annual maxima/minima discharge. We identify limitations according to the fitting procedure and the BC methods, and suggest the usage of the delta change approach for hydrological decision support. Tendencies towards increased high- and decreased low flows are concluded. Our study stresses the challenges in using current GCMs/RCMs in combination with state-of-the-art BC methods and extreme value statistics for local impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 2001 and 2016 land use (LU) data and three developed deforestation LU scenarios, namely Deforest I, II and III, the possible impacts of the ongoing land use land cover change (LULCC) over West Africa (WA) and the uncertainty regarding the impacts on regional climate were assessed. Twelve Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations were configured with the default and integrated MODIS satellite dataset for two sets of 3 months (December–February DJF 2011–2012 and July–September JAS 2012) over WA. Between 2001 and 2016, changes that occurred in precipitation, temperature and dew point temperature due to LULCC are mostly not significant at the 95% level with a decrease of 0.8, 0.0 and 0.1%, respectively. Deforest I, II and III caused significant changes with an increase of 44.4, 44.7, 41.5%; 0.8, 0.9, 1.1%; and 0.3, 0.1, −0.2%, respectively, for precipitation, temperature and dew point temperature. Precipitation was lower in the simulation with 2016 LU than it was with 2001 LU, which may have also been influenced by the reforestation that occurred between the periods. However, Deforest III resulted in a widespread nonsignificant rise in precipitation, as the modified areas showed a significant decrease during JAS period. Areas where forests were converted into barren lands revealed severe increase in the surface albedo which is a strong factor that its alteration is capable of influencing precipitation and other variables over WA. LULCC also altered the atmospheric column by modifying the strength of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), wind speed, and monsoonal, vertical, meridional and zonal winds. Heat related fields, such as dew point and air temperature, and moisture fields such as relative humidity were also modified by LULCC. Therefore, as WA reacts strongly to LULCC, sustainable land management practices should be encouraged to control its adverse effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In arid and semi-arid regions, the quantitative understanding of the processes of runoff generation and prediction of the streamflow hydrographs and their transmission to the catchment outlet are among the most basic challenges of hydrology. To address these challenges, hydrological modeling has been used to gain understanding of the hydrological systems and to provide the required inputs needed for sustainable water resources management. Furthermore, coupling hydrological models with climatic models provides even more understanding of the influence of the climatic parameters on hydrological processes and systems, and hence on runoff generation mechanism. In this research, WRF-Hydro (the Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with the Distributed Hydrologic Modeling System) was used for streamflow forecasting in the Faria catchment. Faria (320 km2), located in the northeastern part of the West Bank, Palestine, is a gauged catchment where rainfall and streamflow data are available for more than ten years. This study aims to assess the functionality of the WRF-Hydro to predict reliable streamflow hydrographs at the upper part of the catchment. Additionally, a new channel loss function was incorporated into WRF-Hydro to model the amount of water lost in the ephemeral (loosing) streams of the catchment. Hence, the rainfall and streamflow data for the rainy season; 2017-2018. were utilized. Results indicate that WRF-Hydo model is well functioning, but model calibration and validation is still required to further improve the model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in southwestern Australia during the twentieth century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation, and anthropogenic aerosol emissions-all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focuses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in southwestern Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical long-term rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that southwestern Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the twentieth century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modeling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-74. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2%-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater southwestern Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the west coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation, and anthropogenic aerosol emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy development is growing fast and is expected to expand in the next decades in West Africa as a contribution to addressing the power demand and climate change mitigation. However, the future impacts of climate change on solar PV and the wind energy potential in the region are still unclear. This study investigates the expected future impacts of climate change on solar PV and wind energy potential over West Africa using an ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs). Each RCM is driven by three global climate models (GCMs) from the new coordinated high-resolution output for regional evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Two projection periods were used: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100). For the model evaluation, reanalysis data from ERA5 and satellite-based climate data (SARAH-2) were used. The models and their ensemble mean (hereafter Mean) show acceptable performance for the simulations of the solar PV potential, the wind power density, and related variables with some biases. The Mean predicts a general decrease in the solar PV potential over the region of about −2% in the near future and −4% in the far future. The wind power density (WPD) is expected to increase by about 20% in the near future and 40% in the far future. The changes for solar PV potential seem to be consistent, although the intensity differs according to the RCM used. For the WPD, there are some discrepancies among the RCMs in terms of intensity and direction. This study can guide governments and policymakers in decision making for future solar and wind energy projects in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropospheric water vapor is one of the most important trace gases of the Earth's climate system, and its temporal and spatial distribution is critical for the genesis of clouds and precipitation. Due to the pronounced dynamics of the atmosphere and the nonlinear relation of air temperature and saturated vapor pressure, it is highly variable, which hampers the development of high-resolution and three-dimensional maps of regional extent. With their complementary high temporal and spatial resolutions, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) meteorology and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) satellite remote sensing represent a significant alternative to generally sparsely distributed radio sounding observations. In addition, data fusion with collocation and tomographical methods enables the construction of detailed maps in either two or three dimensions. Finally, by assimilation of these observation-derived datasets with dynamical regional atmospheric models, tropospheric water vapor fields can be determined with high spatial and continuous temporal resolution. In the following, a collection of basic and processed datasets, obtained with the above-listed methods, is presented that describes the state and course of atmospheric water vapor for the extent of the GNSS Upper Rhine Graben Network (GURN) region. The dataset contains hourly 2D fields of integrated water vapor (IWV) and 3D fields of water vapor density (WVD) for four multi-week, variable season periods between April 2016 and October 2018 at a spatial resolution of (2.1 km) 2. Zenith total delay (ZTD) from GNSS and collocation and refractivities are provided as intermediate products. InSAR (Sentinel-1A/B)-derived double differential slant total delay phases (ddSTDPs) and GNSS-based ZTDs are available for March 2015 to July 2019. The validation of data assimilation with five independent GNSS stations for IWV shows improving Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) scores for all seasons, most notably for summer, with collocation data assimilation (KGE = 0.92) versus the open-cycle simulation (KGE = 0.69). The full dataset can be obtained from 10.1594/PANGAEA.936447. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well accepted that global circulation models equipped with stable water isotopologues help us better understand the relationships between atmospheric circulation changes and isotope records in paleoclimate archives. Still, isotope-enabled models do not disentangle the different processes affecting precipitation isotopic compositions. Furthermore, the relevance of this model-oriented approach relies on the realism of the modeled isotope results, which would support the interpretation of the proxy records in terms of modeled climate changes. To alleviate these limitations, the newly developed WRF-Hydro-iso-tag, a version of the isotope-enabled regional coupled model WRF-Hydro-iso enhanced with an isotope-tracing procedure, is presented. Physics-based WRF-Hydro-iso-tag ensembles are used to regionally downscale the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model for southern Africa, for two 10-yr slices of mid-Holocene and preindustrial times. The isotope-tracing procedure is tailored to assess the origin of the hydrogen isotope deuterium contained in southern African precipitation, between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. In comparison to the global model, WRF-Hydro-iso-tag simulates lower precipitation amounts with more regional details, as well as mid-Holocene-to-preindustrial changes in precipitation isotopic compositions that better match plant-wax deuterium records from two marine sediment cores off the Orange and Limpopo River basins. Linear relationships between mid-Holocene-to-preindustrial changes in temperature, precipitation amount, moisture source, and precipitation deuterium compositions are derived from the ensemble results. A deuterium enrichment in the Orange River-related sediment core may not be related to an aridification but rather indicate a summer circulation change enabling a larger contribution of more isotopically enriched moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. Significance Statement: The knowledge of past climates is crucial for understanding our Earth system and apprehending future climate change. Plant materials in sediment archives contain atoms of hydrogen from past precipitation that allow paleoclimate reconstructions, using compositions of the hydrogen isotope deuterium. However, in the tropics, deuterium-depleted plant remains can either denote a wetter climate phase or a change in atmospheric circulation patterns with longer distances between ocean evaporation and land precipitation. This work provides an innovative dynamical downscaling method of global paleoclimate models to disentangle the effects of precipitation amount change and moisture source change on deuterium records, and ultimately to improve paleoclimate reconstructions. The interpretation of a deuterium enrichment in a marine sediment core as a marker for aridification is revised. The enrichment caused by an atmospheric circulation change bringing a larger amount of more isotopically enriched moisture flow from the Atlantic Ocean to southern African precipitation would be a more physically sound explanation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation change is critical for the Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region, which serves downstream communities in East Asia. The spring (March–May) precipitation over the TRH region shows an increasing trend from 1979 to 2018, as revealed by a Chinese gridded precipitation product (CN05.1). However, the physical processes responsible for this precipitation change are still unclear. This study investigated the characteristics of spring precipitation and the water budget over the TRH region using the ERA5 global reanalysis and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. The WRF version employed in this study includes online calculations of the atmospheric water budget and an evapotranspiration (ET) tagging procedure to trace evapotranspired water in the atmosphere. Both ERA5 and WRF reproduce the spring precipitation increase. Moreover, WRFD02 (with a 3-km domain) reduces the wet bias by around 60% and 77% compared to WRFD01 (9 km) and ERA5 (30 km). Both ERA5 and WRF demonstrate that the increase of spring precipitation is dominated by moisture convergence, especially the atmospheric water fluxes from the southern boundary. The enhanced moisture inflow is sustained by enhanced mass flux while the enhanced moisture outflow is sustained by increased moisture. The ET-tagging results further demonstrate the weakened precipitation recycling process because of the significant increase of precipitation produced by external moisture. Compared to ERA5, the reduced wet bias with WRF is attributed to a better spatial resolution of orographic barrier effects, which reduce the southerly water fluxes. The results highlight the potential of regional climate downscaling to better represent the atmospheric water budget in complex terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) is a common tool for downscaling rainfall, but it is rarely used for West Africa. In this study, a two‐step classification procedure is proposed for this region, which is applied from 1989 to 2010 for the Sudan‐Sahel zone (Central Burkina Faso) with a focus on heavy rainfall. The approach is based on a classification of large‐scale atmospheric CPs (e.g., Saharan Heat Low) of the West African Monsoon using a fuzzy rule‐based method to describe the seasonal rainfall variability. The wettest CPs are further classified using meso‐scale monsoon patterns to better describe the daily rainfall variability during the monsoon period. A comprehensive predictor screening for the seasonal classification indicates that the best performing predictor variables (e.g., surface pressure, meridional moisture fluxes) are closely related to the main processes of the West African Monsoon. In the second classification step, the stream function at 700 hPa for identifying troughs and ridges of tropical waves shows the highest performance, providing an added value to the overall performance of the classification. Thus, the new approach can better distinguish between dry and wet CPs during the rainy season. Moreover, CPs are identified that are of high relevance for daily heavy rainfall in the study area. The two wettest CPs caused roughly half of the extremes on about 6.5% of days. Both wettest patterns are characterized by an intensified Saharan Heat Low and a cyclonic rotation near the study area, indicating a tropical wave trough. Since the classification can be used to condition other statistical approaches used in climate sciences and other disciplines, the presented classification approach opens many different applications for the West African Monsoon region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical climate models have been upgraded by the improved description of terrestrial hydrological processes across different scales. The goal of this study is to explore the role of terrestrial hydrological processes on land–atmosphere interactions within the context of modeling uncertainties related to model physics parameterization. The models applied are the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its coupled hydrological modeling system WRF-Hydro, which depicts the lateral terrestrial hydrological processes and further allows their feedback to the atmosphere. We conducted convection-permitting simulations (3 km) over the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period 2008–2010, and particularly focused on its upper reach area of complex high mountains. In order to account for the modeling uncertainties associated with model physics parameterization, an ensemble of simulations is generated by varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. We embedded the fully three-dimensional atmospheric water tagging method in both WRF and WRF-Hydro for quantifying the strength of land–atmosphere interactions. The impact of PBL parameterization on land–atmosphere interactions is evaluated through its direct effect on vertical mixing. Results suggest that enabled lateral terrestrial flow in WRF-Hydro distinctly increases soil moisture and evapotranspiration near the surface in the high mountains, thereby modifies the atmospheric condition regardless of the applied PBL scheme. The local precipitation recycling ratio in the study area increases from 1.52 to 1.9% due to the description of lateral terrestrial flow, and such positive feedback processes are irrespective of the modeling variability caused by PBL parameterizations. This study highlights the non-negligible contribution of lateral terrestrial flow to local precipitation recycling, indicating the potential of the fully coupled modeling in land–atmosphere interactions research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The usage of data from commercial microwave link (CML) networks for scientific purposes is becoming increasingly popular, in particular for rain rate estimation. However, data acquisition and availability is still a crucial problem and limits research possibilities. To overcome this issue, we have developed an open-source data acquisition system based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). It is able to record transmitted and received signal levels of a large number of CMLs simultaneously with a temporal resolution of up to 1 s. We operate this system at Ericsson Germany, acquiring data from 450 CMLs with minutely real-time transfer to our database. Our data acquisition system is not limited to a particular CML hardware model or manufacturer, though. We demonstrate this by running the same system for CMLs of a different manufacturer, operated by an alpine ski resort in Germany. There, the data acquisition is running simultaneously for four CMLs with a temporal resolution of 1 s. We present an overview of our system, describe the details of the necessary SNMP requests and show results from its operational application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The usage of data from commercial microwave link (CML) networks for scientific purposes is becoming increasingly popular, in particular for rain rate estimation. However, data acquisition and availability is still a crucial problem and limits research possibilities. To overcome this issue, we have developed an open-source data acquisition system based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). It is able to record transmitted and received signal levels of a large number of CMLs simultaneously with a temporal resolution of up to 1 s. We operate this system at Ericsson Germany, acquiring data from 450 CMLs with minutely real-time transfer to our database. Our data acquisition system is not limited to a particular CML hardware model or manufacturer, though. We demonstrate this by running the same system for CMLs of a different manufacturer, operated by an alpine ski resort in Germany. There, the data acquisition is running simultaneously for four CMLs with a temporal resolution of 1 s. We present an overview of our system, describe the details of the necessary SNMP requests and show results from its operational application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]