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With the increasing severity of global warming, the goal of carbon sequestration and emission reduction in various industries has become an important responsibility for sustainable development. As an important part of carbon sink, the improvement of net carbon efficiency in the plantations industry will make a great contribution to the realization of the "double carbon" target in agriculture. However, there are large spatial and temporal differences in the net carbon efficiency of the plantations sector in various provinces, and there is still a large scope for increasing carbon sink and reducing carbon emission. In this paper, we have analyzed spatial and temporal trends in the net carbon sink efficiency of the plantations' production processes in 31 provinces in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2000 to 2020. On this basis, we have analyzed the influencing factors of net carbon efficiency in the plantations' production process through an extended Kaya constant equation. Through the geographically and temporally weighted regression model, we explore the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors, and further analyze the driving and restraining factors of net carbon efficiency in plantations' production process, in order to propose appropriate countermeasures. The study shows that: (1) The net carbon efficiency of plantations sector in China increase between 2000 and 2020, and the development of net carbon efficiency is uneven across regions. (2) The geographic center of net carbon efficiency of China's plantations industry shift from the northeast to the southwest and is consistent with the migration direction of agricultural inputs. (3) The influencing factors of net carbon efficiency in the plantations sector show large regional differences, and can be specifically divided into four major types of zones. In this regard, this paper provides more appropriate countermeasure suggestions for increasing carbon sink and reducing carbon emission in each zone, with a view to achieving the goal of double carbon in agriculture with practical significance. • Net carbon efficiency is a new objective indicator to measure the carbon sink level of cropland. • Cultivated land carbon sink capacity is closely related to agricultural inputs. • Regional differences in the factors influencing net carbon efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's industry is facing a carbon lock-in (CLI) dilemma. Based on the complexity and dynamics of CLI, exploring diversified unlocking paths is an important way to achieve emission reduction goals. This paper innovatively applies system dynamics (SD) to the study of CLI prediction and unlocking path, and systematically constructs an industrial CLI SD model, trying to break the positive feedback mechanism of CLI through multiple causality and feedback chains. This paper simulates and predicts the changing trend of the CLI level of China's industry and 8 major subsectors from 2020 to 2050. At the same time, the random forest algorithm is used to select the regulatory variables of policy analysis. Compared with the previous research methods, the accuracy and objectivity of the selection of regulatory variables are improved, so as to test the effectiveness of the unlocking path under each scenario. The results show that (1) the whole industry faces a serious CLI problem and is still in a deep lock-in state. From the perspective of subsectors, the light, electromechanical, and textile industries have achieved unlocking; the oil and extractive industries are in a moderately lock-in state; the chemical, steel, and power industries are in a deep lock-in state; and the CLI situation is serious. (2) The results of the random forest algorithm show that R&D investment, the proportion of fixed asset investments in the energy industry, car sales, energy structure, and carbon emission industry structure are the most significant factors affecting CLI in each subsystem. (3) Compared with the existing economic development model, the technological, institutional, social, and comprehensive unlocking scenarios can all enable industry to achieve carbon peak and carbon unlocking in advance. However, the effect of each scenario is as follows: comprehensive unlocking scenario > technological unlocking scenario > institutional unlocking scenario > social unlocking scenario. (4) The unlocking times of the oil, chemical, steel, and power industries are relatively late in each scenario. To realize carbon unlocking in industry, these four areas should be focused on in the future. This study helps policymakers formulate reasonable policies to accelerate industrial carbon unlocking and promote the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy. • The whole industry faces a serious carbon lock-in problem. • The technological, institutional, social and comprehensive unlocking scenarios can all achieve carbon unlocking in advance. • The comprehensive unlocking scenario has the best effect, and the social unlocking scenario has the worst effect. • The oil, chemical, steel and power industries should be focused on in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Household carbon emissions account for a significant proportion of the national total emissions. Using a unique nation-wide survey data, this paper investigates the impact of different subjective measures of social awareness on household carbon emissions in China. Subjective variables are found to have significant impacts on household carbon emissions. Feeling secure, compliance with rules, and happiness have negative and significant effects on household carbon emissions, whereas the impact of interest in social issues is positive, which indicates the existence of a gap between awareness and behavior. The impacts of consumer lifestyles on the relationship between awareness and household emissions are also explored and are found to play a significant role in the relationship between awareness and emissions. People with a frugal lifestyle not only associate with lower emissions but also reinforce the role of social awareness. Furthermore, substantial differences are found across rural/urban areas and regional and income groups in China. The government should further promote a green lifestyle and give households more incentives to engage in green consumption behavior. Highlights • Household emissions are studied based on China Household Finance Survey. • Subjective factors are found to have significant impacts on household emissions. • Lifestyles matter in the relationship between awareness and household emissions. • Regional and income differences are considered in the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Coordinating the dilemma of economic development and reducing carbon emissions is of great significance to reaching China's energy-saving and emission-reduction targets. This paper investigates the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions from the construction industry of China's 30 provinces, and uses the standard deviational ellipse method to explore the spatial evolution of carbon emissions and the economy. The results indicate that the economic development levels of most provinces were positively correlated with carbon emissions. The spatial differences in the decoupling state of provincial construction industry are significant, and the decoupling states of the same type exhibited a certain spatial aggregation phenomenon. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the output value and carbon emissions exhibited a northeast-southwest pattern. The weighted mean centers of both were located in the east and moved towards the northwestern region. These results may provide a basis for assessing regional construction carbon emissions and formulating strategies for the coordinated development of low carbon emissions in the construction industry. Highlights • The standard deviational ellipse method is employed. • It studies the spatial pattern of economic growth and carbon emissions. • It demonstrates the dynamic evolving trend of the decoupling relationship. • It can further promote carbon emission reduction at the provincial level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Belt and Road Initiative was proposed by China in 2013 to promote the interconnected development and prosperity of all participating countries. In the context of global response to climate change, understanding the embodied carbon transfer change along economic trade before and after the Belt and Road Initiative is essential to reduce carbon overall emission. In this paper, we used a multi-regional input-output model to study the embodied carbon transfer in trade between the Belt and Road countries that have signed cooperation documents with China from 2004 to 2017. The results showed that from 2004 to 2017, the growth rate that China's carbon emissions imported from other Belt and Road Initiative countries was about 1.9 times that of its exports. From 2004 to 2017, the proportion of China's carbon imports from other Belt and Road countries in China's total carbon imports increased from 3.41% to 3.73%, and exports decreased from 6.52% to 6.03%. In both 2004 and 2017, Electricity, Gas and Water sector, Heavy Industry sector, Transport sector were the three largest carbon transfer sectors in China's multilateral trade. In 2017, the embodied carbon transfer by multilateral trade among other Belt and Road countries except China increased by 15.53% compared with 2004. By comparing the characteristics of carbon transfer between China and the Belt and Road countries from 2004 to 2017, this study will provide insights for carbon emission reduction policy setting of Belt and Road Initiative countries. • We took countries that have signed documents with China as research objects. • MRIO model was used to analyze the carbon transfer change from 2004 to 2017. • The embodied carbon transfer in 2017 of BRI increased by 15.53% compared with 2004. • The growth rate of China's carbon imports from BRI was 1.9 times that of exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate is warming up and climate disasters occur more frequently, China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets are gaining attention, with provinces starting to set carbon peak targets and constantly exploring low carbon economic development opportunities. However, the existing evaluation index system mainly focuses on low carbon cities and green cities, and there is no evaluation index system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study adopts a combination of theoretical and empirical research and draws on domestic and international research results to construct the first index system for evaluating China's provincial carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The evaluation index system includes 18 indicators from three dimensions: climate ambition, low carbon status, and emissions trends. Using this index system, we calculated the carbon peak and carbon neutrality indices of 30 Chinese provinces. Further, the 30 provinces were classified into six categories, and corresponding policy recommendations for achieving the "Dual carbon" targets were put forward. The evaluation index system constructed in this paper can provide a reference for future carbon peak and carbon neutrality assessments. By disclosing the integrated index of each province, we hope to effectively curb the increasing local carbon emissions; avert inaction in areas with good natural endowments; and motivate the advancement of the latter, to boost the implementation of the "Dual carbon" targets coherently for the whole country. [Display omitted] • An integrated evaluation system on China's Provincial "Dual carbon" was proposed. • 30 provinces in mainland China were ranked based on the integrated index. • 6 groups were classified to show provincial differences on dual carbon performance. • Policy recommendations to fulfill China's climate commitment were put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The average carbon reduction performance increases year by year. • The policy has an immediate impact on CO 2 reduction in demonstration cities. • The policy has follow-up impact on carbon emission reduction. • Less thermal power and more research investment are the paths to policy effect. The Energy-saving and Emission Reduction Demonstration City (ESERD) Policy brings more favorable development conditions and opportunities for the cities selected, but the carbon reduction effect of the energy-saving policy is not clear which needs to be quantified and evaluated. By measuring the Total Factor/Energy Carbon Performance Index (TCPI /ECPI) of 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019 and by constructing a quasi-natural experiment, this paper contributes in three aspects. (1) we are committed to a method of calculating the energy consumption and carbon emission of prefecture-level cities in China; (2) we provide evidence to the CO 2 reduction effect of the ESERD policy in a more comprehensive way; (3) we probe the paths of the policy effects. The main findings are: (1) TCPI and ECPI has been rising since 2011, the eastern cities have more outstanding achievement while the performance of the western region has been at a relatively high level during the time period of the study, and the performance of cities have diverged in recent years. (2) The policy's contribution to the demonstration cities' carbon reduction performance is significant, immediate and far-reaching, a lower share of electricity consumption due to indirectly reducing the use of coal, and higher investment in scientific research for improving the technology level of industrial development are both paths to achieve carbon emission reduction in the demonstration cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The power sector plays a significant role in China's energy transition and emission reduction strategy. Considering that the aggregation of the power sector from different sources in input-output (IO) tables will lead to the "aggregation bias problem", it is vital that we disaggregate the power sector using IO tables when analyzing and comparing the driving forces of embodied carbon emission changes in the power sector. This paper first disaggregates the power sector into seven subsectors; then, it uses structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze the driving forces of embodied carbon emission changes in each subsector and allocates embodied emissions that occur from 2007 to 2015 according to the demand categories. The results show that the embodied carbon emissions from each clean energy sector were relatively lower than those from thermal power during the study period. Consumption volume was the main driving factor for the embodied carbon emission increments. From 2012 to 2015, the production structure was mainly responsible for the embodied emission increases in each clean energy sector, indicating that the embodied carbon emissions caused by power equipment updates or reconstruction processes should receive more attention. In addition, the embodied carbon emission changes induced by urban residential consumption on the thermal power showed a plateaued trend from 2007 to 2015. This paper provides support for the formulation of emission reduction measures and the low-carbon structural transformation of the power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fundamental requirement of carbon abatement is to complete the carbon abatement task set, at the lowest cost. In this paper, the non-radial distance function method is used to calculate the marginal carbon abatement costs of each unit, and the statistical method is used to estimate the carbon abatement efficiency of each unit. Based on the sum of dynamic carbon abatement costs in each province, the carbon abatement task allocation is optimized, and the data before and after optimization is compared and analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The function of carbon abatement efficiency can be estimated using the marginal cost of carbon abatement, by which, the carbon abatement cost of each province can be calculated. (2) The correlation between carbon emissions and carbon abatement efficiency of each province is weak, so the overall carbon abatement efficiency of China is low. (3) Optimizing the allocation of provincial carbon abatement tasks can significantly reduce the total carbon abatement cost and improve the carbon abatement efficiency. This study has significant theoretical and practical value for improving China's overall carbon abatement efficiency, and establishing the provincial initial carbon emission quota. [Display omitted] • We estimate carbon abatement efficiency of China and its provinces. • We improve the method for carbon abatement efficiency using the dynamic data. • We fill a gap in research on carbon abatement efficiency based task allocation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Energy rebound effect leads to "green paradox". • The effect of short-term energy rebound effect is greater than the long-term. • Investment bias and factor market distortion important for policy development. • Government decentralization can suppress the energy rebound effect. Analyzing the influence of energy rebound effect on carbon emissions at different urbanization stages is of great significance to improve the effectiveness of emission reduction polices. In this paper, the energy rebound effect is classified into the short-term energy rebound effect and the long-term energy rebound effect. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve, the nonlinear programming model of urbanization, energy rebound effect and carbon emissions is established to analyzed the influence mechanism of energy rebound effect on carbon emissions at different stages of urbanization. We further discuss how to avoid the impact of energy rebound effect on carbon emission reduction. The results show that: (1) The influence of short-term energy rebound effect on carbon emissions is greater than long-term energy rebound effect, and both of them decrease with the increase of urbanization rate. (2) The "discretionary" and "hitchhiking" behavior of local governments in formulating environmental policies will lead to the "Matthew Effect" of energy rebound effect. (3) Investment bias and factor market distortion could increase energy rebound effect, and they have obvious substitution effect. (4) The decentralization of power by local governments is an effective measure to suppress energy rebound effect. The analysis above could help local governments to formulate policies, suppressing the influence of energy rebound effect and promoting carbon emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the coupling mechanisms between carbon emissions and the eco-environment is essential for building sustainable economies. Based on the coupling coordination model, this paper investigates the coordination degree of carbon emissions and the eco-environment in China from 2009 to 2015. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition method was used to identify the key factors affecting the coordination degree. Furthermore, different scenarios were simulated to show the impact of changes in government priorities on the coordination degree. The results show that the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and the eco-environment in China has reached a barely balanced stage, but a few provinces are still struggling with imbalances. The coordination level of carbon emissions and the eco-environment becomes the key factor affecting coordinated development, while the interaction intensity has a limited effect. Further analysis indicated that although the carbon emission evaluation value has a positive effect on promoting an increase in the coordination degree, the eco-environment evaluation value determines the trend of coordinated regional development. Moreover, the priorities of government policymakers have a substantial impact on coordinated development, but these impacts gradually diminish as the differences in evaluation values decrease. These findings contribute to the formulation of effective regional sustainable development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on panel data from 2007 to 2016, this paper investigates the carbon abatement effect of China's pilot Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and the influencing paths of the policy at both national and regional level by using Difference in Differences model and parallel multiple mediator model. The results reveal that the policy has reduced the total carbon emission reduction by 13.39%, with an upward abatement trend annually. Secondly, a systematic framework containing technique effect, composition effect and allocation effect is proposed to further investigate the influencing mechanisms of the achieved emission curbing effect. It reflects that the policy has not yet promoted the low-carbon innovation completely, only innovation of high-quality played an effective mediating role. Meantime, two other influencing channels of industrial upgrading and optimized resource allocation are verified. Thirdly, policy's heterogeneous impacts are detected by classifying China into three representative regions according to economic and geographical differences, where western China experiences the strongest emission abatement by 21.57%, whereas central China and eastern China is 9.83% and 6.65% respectively. Fourthly, assessments of the regional influencing mechanisms show that the mediating role of high-quality low-carbon technology innovation is only significant in the western region, while the other two regions tend to have rebound effect. Besides, the promotion of industrial upgrading is positively related to the development levels of regions, with the improvement of 18.01% in the eastern region, followed by 17.34% and 12.46% in the central and western region. Finally, the optimization of the resource allocation has not been promoted regardless of the regions. In general, although the current policy has a significant carbon reduction effect, there is still much space for potential abatement to be developed. • China's pilot ETS has significant carbon reduction effects at both national and regional level. • Mediating effects of high-quality innovation, industrial upgrading and allocation optimization are significant nationally. • Only high-quality innovation is effective in western China, while other mediating roles are not significant regionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A joint decomposition model based on meta-frontier was proposed. • The effect of scale efficiency was captured based on variable return to scale model. • The catch up effect of carbon emission and energy usage technology was captured. Production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) is widely used to explore the factors related to changes in carbon emissions. However, traditional PDA mainly focuses on scenarios of decision making units (DMUs) with constant returns to scale, and neglects technology heterogeneity among DMUs. Therefore, this paper proposes a joint approach combined PDA and index decomposition analysis (IDA) based on the variable returns to scale (VRS) and the meta-frontier model, and further decomposed the change of carbon emissions into 9 driving factors. Based on above, we investigated the effects of the nine factors on the change of carbon emissions at national, regional and provincial levels in China during the period of 2007–2016. The results indicated that the increase of carbon emissions in China have slowed down since 2012, but the overall situation is not optimistic, especially in the western region. Economic activity played a dominant role in increasing carbon emissions for each region. Carbon emission efficiency and potential carbon factor were also the two important factors related to increase carbon emissions. Conversely, energy intensity, the catch-up effect of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency on carbon emissions played a positive role in decreasing CO 2 emissions, especially for the eastern region. However, the driving factors related to energy usage, such as the catch-up effect of energy usage scale efficiency and the pure energy usage technical efficiency had trifling and unstable effects on the change of carbon emissions. Based on the above analysis, we propose suggestions to reduce carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We explore whether each of the 30 Chinese provinces will peak emissions by 2030. • We combine STIRPAT models and scenario analyses to predict emissions trajectories. • 26 provinces are likely to peak emissions under at least one scenario, but 4 are not. • Peaking time and cumulative emissions are considered in seeking optimal peaking path. • Provincial results in aggregate show China may peak in 2028–2040 and 2030 is optimal. China has pledged in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that its carbon emissions will peak no later than 2030. However, the varying carbon emissions trajectories of individual provinces make it difficult to determine whether China can fulfill this ambitious goal on time. To bring transparency and clarity to this core issue, this paper explores for the first time whether and how all the 30 Chinese provinces will peak their energy-related emissions in future by developing a set of extended STIRPAT models that investigate the driving forces behind each province and integrating the estimates into scenario analysis for peaking simulation. We observe that, despite continued economic growth, 26 provinces are highly likely to reach peak emissions under at least one scenario, whereas the remaining are not. We find it interesting that the earliest peaking scenarios may not be the best option for those provinces whose cumulative carbon emissions are estimated to be considerably large. To ensure a viable reaching of China's peak emissions, much more attention should be paid to seeking for the most appropriate emissions trajectory to peak at the subnational level with relatively low cumulative value. Provincial results in aggregate show that China may peak emissions in the period 2028–2040, with cumulative emissions ranging from 403,607 Mt CO 2 (corresponding to peaking in 2030) to 456,191 Mt CO 2 (corresponding to peaking in 2038), while 2030 would be the optimal year for the country to peak because of the lowest cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings only provide a deeper understanding of China's potential peaking paths by province, but also assist policy makers in better prediction and evaluation of possible emissions trajectory for other nations and the whole world from a bottom-up perspective, and therefore could be of global significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aluminium industry, with its traditionally high energy consumption, high emissions and high pollution, is facing increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions in China. Implementing effective policies and measures to promote carbon emissions reduction is of great importance. This study deploys the life cycle assessment (LCA) method to explore carbon emissions and CO 2 sources from aluminium manufacturing in China as well as a scenario analysis to evaluate the reduction potential and driving forces of carbon emissions in the industry. The evaluated scenarios include a new capacity allocation scheme, technological progress and energy structure optimization. The carbon emissions from the aluminium chain are mostly contributed by indirect emissions (more than 68%) from electricity generation. Significant regional discrepancies are observed in the total emissions and intensity, and a reasonable industry layout tends to transfer to the south and southwest areas from the perspective of the environmental pillar. Production output remains the dominant factors associated with total carbon emissions from manufacturing firms, such as the aluminium industry. Technological progress and the energy structure contribute to total reductions and carbon efficiency, although the former has a relatively limited scope for aluminium firms. This paper also shows that marginal carbon efficiency improvements are not very effective in lowering the total CO 2 emissions under the context of high output growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]