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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the market value for the agricultural properties - agricultural lands located within the Casimcea Administrative Territorial Unit (UAT), Tulcea county, Romania. What was analyzed is the fact that a well-executed market analysis can help a lot in the evaluation process. Thus, after choosing the case study, the exact identification of the agricultural land was made. The next stage was the realization of the market analysis. Thus, the current state of agricultural land transactions was analyzed at the European, national and local level. The actual evaluation of the land was done through the market approach and all the adjustments were explained in the content of this paper. The results revealed the fact that the final market value falls within the range found following the market analysis. The analysis is carried out also at the processing level, the results indicating also a quite high coefficient of variation. This paper has achieved its goal, that is to see the impact that the market analysis has in determining the market value of an agricultural land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Submissions fell back slightly in 2023 to 474 manuscripts but remain above pre‐Covid levels. Despite the high number of submissions, there has been little change in the number of papers accepted for publication, with the acceptance rate in 2023 standing at 8%. The acceptance rate is considerably higher for papers originating from Europe and North America. Accepted papers are now routinely made available online as 'Early View'. The Journal's Impact Factor fell back slightly for 2022, but still compares favourably with other journals in the field of agricultural economics. Operational changes include revisions to the journal's webpage and authors' guidelines and a newly configured editorial team. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural markets remain major issue downgrading root and tuber crop farmers who form the mainstream of the agricultural producers in Malawi. Recent evidence however reveals that orange‐fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) (Ipomea batatas) is currently being sold in produce markets along with the non‐orange varieties, sometimes in differentiated form in Malawi. The main objective of this study was to examine factors affecting market participation of sweet potato farmers in southern region of Malawi. Using a double‐hurdle model, this paper analyzed both the factors affecting farmer decision to participate and the extent/intensity of participation in market. The first tier of the double hurdle focused on decision to participate in the market using probit model and the second tier addressed factors affecting intensity of participation using truncated normal regression model. The paper used data collected from 360 farmers in southern districts of Malawi. Out of 360, 146 farmers had grown OFSP in the season preceding the survey. Double hurdle results indicate that farm size, output, age of a farmer (household head), and early maturing trait significantly determined decision to participate in the market. Further, results on intensity of participation indicate that access to market training, farm size, asset value, and output positively determined the intensity and negatively determined by distance to main market and gender of a farmer (household head). Based on the research findings, higher output levels and early maturing trait were found to increase smallholder farmer market participation. It is therefore recommended that strategies aimed at increasing household capacity to produce surplus produce through market tailored extension messages and productivity enhancement technologies could be highly effective in fostering smallholders' participation in commercial markets. Again, enhanced capacity building of research institutions to breed sweet potato varieties based on market demand is pivotal for increased market participation. Furthermore, research suggests that improving smallholder farmers' access to market price information, asset value, and farm size can help increase their intensity in the market. Therefore, it is critical for policymakers to holistically comprehend these socioeconomic factors in order to address the issue of smallholder farm households' decisions about market participation and the degree to which they participate. Core Ideas: Orange fleshed sweet potato is currently being sold along with non‐orange varieties, sometimes in differentiated.Decision to participate in market is significantly influenced by output, farm size, age early maturing attribute.Market intensity is determined by access to training, distance to market, farm size, gender, asset value and output.Breeding programs should integrate both sensory and agronomic traits such as early maturity and good taste. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientifically characterizing the intrinsic mechanism of the biased reduction targets affecting agricultural green innovation is of great practical significance for the systematic promotion of the greening transformation of China's agricultural development mode. This paper first constructed a two-sector endogenous economic growth model, theoretically deducing the intrinsic mechanism by which the bias reduction targets were adjusted through the green transformation of agricultural production input factors, which in turn affected the research and development decision-making of the agricultural innovation sector. To the end, this paper treated the strategy of zero growth in synthetic fertilizer use (ZGS) implemented in 2015 as a policy shock and empirically assessed its green innovation effect using the staggered difference-in-differences model. The results showed that ZGS significantly contributed to the increase of green patents in Chinese agriculture. The above conclusion still held after a series of robustness tests, including using terrain complexity as an instrumental variable, estimating the robust staggered difference-in-differences model, eliminating policy interference, altering the estimated model, and replacing the explanatory variables. However, the obvious regional heterogeneity of this effect was reported: the higher the level of marketization and digitalization, the fuller the release of this innovation effect; and that ZGS was more significant in inducing the green innovation activities of enterprises and individuals than of innovation bodies such as universities and research institutions. Finally, this paper also empirically tested the two paths of the theoretical model about the green innovation effect triggered by the biased reduction targets. The study confirmed that the green innovation effect of ZGS mainly resulted from two channels: the expansion of the market scale for agricultural green technologies and the green-oriented allocation of innovation resources. The above conclusions imply that it is necessary to create a sound innovation ecology by strengthening the innovation of green science and technology institutions and combining active government with an effective market. Particularly, a portfolio of policy instruments, including the fiscal, taxation, financial, investment, price policy, and standard system concerning green technology development, should be created to guarantee green technology development. In addition, ZGS can set up differentiated reduction targets considering regional endowment conditions to ensure its smooth progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of studies of agricultural productivity support the view that there is a relationship between productivity and farm size. How the size of a farm is related to its efficiency is a constant problem in agricultural economics research. It also has important implications for agricultural development policy. For developed countries, including the countries of the European Union, numerous studies show that, with the increase in the size of farms, their efficiency usually increases. Moreover, there is a constant decrease in the number of farms and the concentration of land and labor. For this reason, the problem of the influence of the economic size of a farm is included in the scope of the research related to the analysis of the relationship between the farm size and its efficiency. The purpose of the paper was to investigate the relative technical efficiency of the agricultural sector in the European Union (EU-27) using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). It was found that with the increase in economic size, the technical efficiency of the researched farms improved. Attention was paid to the possibility of reducing labor inputs, mainly in farms of economic size classes ES1-ES4. No need to reduce the level of capital expenditure has been demonstrated. This emphasizes the growing importance of the substitution of labor with capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We utilize a coupled economy–agroecology–hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality cobenefits. We analyze a policy that assigns a range of United States government’s social cost of carbon estimates ($51, $76, and $152/ton of CO2-equivalents) to fossil fuel–based CO2 emissions. This policy raises energy costs and, importantly for agriculture, boosts the price of nitrogen fertilizer production. At the highest carbon price, US carbon emissions are reduced by about 50%, and nitrogen fertilizer prices rise by about 90%, leading to an approximate 15% reduction in fertilizer applications for corn production across the Mississippi River Basin. Corn and soybean production declines by about 7%, increasing crop prices by 6%, while nitrate leaching declines by about 10%. Simulated nitrate export to the Gulf of Mexico decreases by 8%, ultimately shrinking the average midsummer area of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area by 3% and hypoxic volume by 4%. We also consider the additional benefits of restored wetlands to mitigate nitrogen loading to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and find a targeted wetland restoration scenario approximately doubles the effect of a low to moderate social cost of carbon. Wetland restoration alone exhibited spillover effects that increased nitrate leaching in other parts of the basin which were mitigated with the inclusion of the carbon policy. We conclude that a national climate policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States would have important water quality cobenefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the response of agricultural commodity markets to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Employing daily commodity‐level data and event study methods, we analyse the impact on seven agricultural commodities and four key market metrics, including futures prices, historical and implied volatility, and speculative pressure. Our findings show a statistically insignificant increase of 1.1% in agricultural futures prices within the first seven trading days following the BSGI termination. In the following days, futures prices began to decline, eventually returning to levels below those observed before the withdrawal, a pattern further underscored by our implied volatility analysis. While there is no evidence of heightened speculation, we find some evidence for treatment differences across agricultural commodities. These findings suggest that traders did not believe in the likelihood of a blockade of Black Sea grain shipments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking six representative futures in the international energy and agricultural markets as the research objects, we use multifractal analysis methods to study the fluctuation characteristics, market risks and cross-correlations within and between these markets before and after the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict in this paper. The empirical results show that both the auto-correlations and cross-correlations have obvious multifractal features. It is confirmed that the multifractal strength and market risks of the international energy markets have weakened, while those of the international agricultural markets have enhanced after the Russia–Ukraine conflict broke out. In addition, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has intensified the strength of the multifractality and the degree of fluctuation complexity between these two classes of international markets. Further, the intrinsic multifractal natures of cross-correlations are tested, and the apparent and intrinsic multifractality before and after the conflict are revealed. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward based on the empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the institutional reforms in agricultural commodity markets in India and examines their implications for spatial efficiency in supply chains of the markets. In order to remove inefficiencies in the traditional supply chain, the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Act was revised, and a Model APMC Act 2003 was introduced with the provisions for establishing private markets/yards, direct purchase centres, farmers markets for direct sale, contract farming and promotion of public–private partnership in the management and development of agricultural markets. Initiative has been taken to set up a National Agricultural Market as an all-India electronic trading portal to develop a 'common national market' for agricultural commodities. The institutional reforms in agricultural marketing system since the early 1990s appear to have contributed towards improving the spatial efficiency in rice and wheat markets. The finding of an increase in the extent of spatial integration of markets after the reforms and the tendency of the prices to move towards a common stochastic trend lend support to the idea of setting up a 'common national market' for agricultural commodities. Further reforms in the marketing system with better infrastructure facilities would strengthen market integration and improve efficiency in the supply chains. JEL classification: O13, Q13, Q18. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has become a new trend for the future development of Chinese agriculture to accelerate the transformation from increasing production to improving quality and realizing green growth. This paper uses the sequential DEA to measure the agricultural green total factor productivity (GTFP) of 306 Chinese cities from 1996 to 2017, then tests its convergence. The results show that the average growth rate of Chinese agricultural GTFP is 0.58%; the main driving force coming from technical progress. The convergence of agricultural GTFP has dual characteristics of stages and regions, and the significant σ convergence only exists in the central region during 1996–2003. There is significant β convergence at the national level, in the eastern and central regions, and neither convergence nor divergence in the western region. However, during 2004–2017, only the eastern region had β convergence. Finally, the conditional convergence speed is higher than the absolute convergence, and the eastern region is higher than the central. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetable sector is a vital pillar of society and an indispensable part of the national economic structure. As a significant segment of the agricultural market, accurately forecasting vegetable prices holds significant importance. Vegetable market pricing is subject to a myriad of complex influences, resulting in nonlinear patterns that conventional time series methodologies often struggle to decode. In this paper, we exploit the average daily price data of six distinct types of vegetables sourced from seven key wholesale markets in Beijing, spanning from 2009 to 2023. Upon training an LSTM model, we discovered that it exhibited exceptional performance on the test dataset. Demonstrating robust predictive performance across various vegetable categories, the LSTM model shows commendable generalization abilities. Moreover, LSTM model has a higher accuracy compared to several machine learning methods, including CNN-based time series forecasting approaches. With R2 score of 0.958 and MAE of 0.143, our LSTM model registers an enhancement of over 5% in forecast accuracy relative to conventional machine learning counterparts. Therefore, by predicting vegetable prices for the upcoming week, we envision this LSTM model application in real-world settings to aid growers, consumers, and policymakers in facilitating informed decision-making. The insights derived from this forecasting research could augment market transparency and optimize supply chain management. Furthermore, it contributes to the market stability and the balance of supply and demand, offering a valuable reference for the sustainable development of the vegetable industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's agricultural economy has been hindered by insufficient accumulation of agricultural capital and credit constraints. It is worth investigating whether China's county financial marketization reform policy can alleviate these constraints and promote high-quality development of the agricultural economy (HQDAE). This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of county financial marketization reform on the HQDAE, based on county panel data. The focus is on the mechanism of county urbanization in the above relationship. The results show that county financial marketization has a significant non-linear impact on the HQDAE. Specifically, it has a 'U-shaped' impact on the overall growth of the agricultural economy and an inverted 'N-shaped' impact on the quality improvement of the agricultural economy. Secondly, the relationship between county financial marketization and the HQDAE is influenced by a threshold effect based on the level of county urbanization. As the level of county urbanization increases, the promoting effect of county financial marketization on HQDAE also increases significantly. Additionally, county financial marketization helps to promote county urbanization and accelerate urban-rural integration, which in turn leads to HQDAE. The research in this paper suggests that county-level local governments should promote a differentiated county financial system. In the early stages of financial market-oriented reform, the government should enhance the capacity of financial services in rural areas through tax breaks, policy incentives, and other measures to prevent financial leakage from agriculture. In the later stages of financial marketization reform, the government should strengthen financial supervision to prevent financial resources from being diverted from industry to capital. Moreover, to achieve the HQDAE, it is necessary to promote county financial market-oriented reform and accelerate the construction of county urbanization. This will help break the dual economic structure of urban and rural areas and promote the flow of financial capital, technology, and human capital from county cities to rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On retirement from the post of Editor in Chief of the JAE, it is appropriate that I offer some reflections on my editorship. First, I review the general performance of the journal over the period 2005‐2023, and conclude that the JAE has held its own amongst our peers though this is is largely due to our authors and reviewers, rather than the Editor. Second, I consider the subject matter and citation scores of our published papers over this period, as a reflection of the evolution of the state of the art of the Agricultural Economics profession. Here, I illustrate the increasing number and subject/method range of published papers, but raise some questions about what, exactly, citations really indicate. I conclude with some reflections on the challenges and opportunities for the profession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new development pattern has identified two key avenues for the sustained advancement of high-quality agricultural and rural development: digitalisation and low-carbon development. The measurement of the digital economy and the agricultural carbon emission performance, and their spatial and temporal heterogeneity, is a crucial step in promoting the spatial coordination and sustainable development of digitalisation and low-carbon agriculture. This paper employs the entropy value method, SBM model, and coupling coordination degree model to investigate the coupling coordination measurement and spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the performance of the digital economy and agricultural carbon emissions. The data used are provincial panel data from 2013 to 2021. The simulation results demonstrate that, between 2013 and 2021, the digital economy of all provinces exhibited varying degrees of growth, yet the development of the digital economy between provinces exhibited a more pronounced tendency to diverge. Concurrently, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in China exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. The development of the digital economy and the efficiency of agricultural carbon emission were found to be highly coupled. Their coupling and coordination relationship showed a downward trend followed by an upward trend. In general, it is suggested that we should increase investment in digital economy infrastructure and technology, promote digital agricultural applications, strengthen policy guidance and financial support, establish a coupling coordination mechanism and strengthen farmers' digital literacy and environmental awareness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland reclamation was an intrinsic part of nineteenth-century global agricultural transformations. In Swedish research, reclamation has mainly been situated in larger general processes of population rise, commercialization and societal/technological development. The intersection of reclamation, physical environments and local economies has seldom been studied in detail. This paper conducts a local analysis of nineteenth-century wetland reclamation in two parishes in Sweden, Knätte and Mörlunda, through combining a study of specific reclamation processes with an analysis of local agrarian-economic development. The results show that these processes varied depending on specific historical-geographical circumstances. In Knätte, reclamation was not primarily related to population rise, but to increasing commercialization during the period. The case in Mörlunda instead shows how reclamation was first a response to increasing population but later developed into a project of agricultural market adaptation. In both cases, the physical environment led to varying degrees of geographic constraint in the process. In combination, these results point to the importance of detailed case studies in nuancing our understanding of nineteenth-century wetland reclamation both in Sweden and internationally. • Local factors are important for nuancing general trends in wetland reclamation. • In Sweden, population rise and commercialization are considered primary drivers. • The active drivers vary between the compared cases, depending on context. • Reclamation was primarily a part of local agrarian developments. • Wider relations of the local economy, for example through trade, also impacted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As governments encourage circular economy (CE) initiatives, markets for waste recirculation are taking shape. But implementation is in its infancy and material circuits are emergent. Early food waste CEs shaped by commercial players emphasise capital investment, routinised forms of waged labour, processing sites distant from food waste sources, and transactional relationships. Less well understood is the potential for vernacular circularity beyond market-based, transactional frames. This paper reports from a collaborative research exercise with a non-profit community farm in nonmetropolitan Australia, seeking to connect with cafés to access food waste for composting. Cafés are a nexus of production and consumption, ubiquitous in the contemporary multicultural Australian context, and therefore ideal for grassroots CEs. Ten local cafes participated, reviewing existing food waste practices, motivations for circularity, and contextual factors including the regional setting. We found that food waste circularity emerges via divergent pathways related to enterprise type and scale, environmental values of actors, place embeddedness, and local relationships. These pathways reflect the place-based attributes and diverse sustainability values of residents and businesses in the coastal, industrial city of Wollongong, where the study is based. Contrasting distant, transactional circuits, are more-than-transactional food waste pathways, developed by microscale actors shaping vernacular material flows and "hacking" public provision of Food Organic and Garden Organic (FOGO) waste services to mobilise environmental values and community relationships. Overlooked by "big policy" more-than-transactional relationships bind producers, intermediaries and consumers in closer loops and, in so doing, enrich place and facilitate an ethic of care for soil and land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural ecological efficiency is an important tool with which to measure the coordination of the sustainable development of agricultural economies and ecological environments. In this paper, a super-efficiency slacks-based measures model was used to measure the agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province. The characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution patterns were explored using a spatial Markov transfer matrix. The results showed that (i) based on measurements, the agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province showed regional differences in four regions (eastern, northern, central and southern Hebei) and 141 counties; (ii) from the perspective of evolutionary characteristics of agricultural ecological efficiency, the overall development of in Hebei Province was good, with more concentrated spatial distribution and more obvious direction, while the type of transfer of agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province showed strong stability that was significantly affected by geographical neighborhood conditions and the club convergence phenomenon; (iii) from the perspective of the long-term evolutionary trend of agricultural ecological efficiency, the areas adjacent to counties with low efficiency had limited potential for improvement, and the areas adjacent to counties with high grade had great potential. However, it was difficult to achieve large-scale improvement in agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province, whether the impact of geospatial backgrounds was considered or not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because the complexity of the external environment has put great pressure on the agricultural economy, making it vulnerable, it is necessary to promote a system of resilience in the agricultural economy so that Chinese agriculture can continue to persevere in the face of serious external uncertainties. Therefore, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution of the distributional dynamics of China's county-level agricultural economic resilience based on 2000–2020 data covering 2,545 counties. The results are as follows: first, from 2000 to 2020, the mean value of China's county-level agricultural economic resilience showed an obvious upward trend, which indicates that China's agricultural economy gradually increased its ability to resist risks and continued to develop in a favourable manner. Specifically, the county-level agricultural economic resilience index of the northeast region grew the most significantly, while the index of county units in the western region was relatively low. Second, the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution of China's agricultural economic resilience gradually migrated to the northwest, showing a dominant direction from northeast to southwest and a tendency to develop from southeast to northwest. Third, the spatial differences in China's agricultural economic resilience generally showed an upward trend, while county-level differences were the main source of the overall differences, followed by inter-provincial differences, inter-municipal differences and inter-regional differences. Additionally, the contribution of county-level differences to the overall differences fluctuated within the range of 54%-58%. Fourth, there is a possibility of localized convergence in China's agricultural economic resilience, which is continuous in spatial effects and has obvious positively correlated spatial effects at different times and in different county spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of modern cold chain logistics technology has greatly expanded the sales market of agricultural products in rural areas. However, due to the uncertainty of agricultural product harvesting, relying on the experience values provided by farmers for vehicle scheduling can easily lead to low utilization of vehicle capacity during the pickup process and generate more transportation cost. Therefore, this article adopts a non-linear improved grey prediction method based on data transformation to estimate the pickup demand of fresh agricultural products, and then establishes a mathematical model that considers the fixed vehicle usage cost, the damage cost caused by non-linear fresh fruit and vegetable transportation damage and decay rate, the cooling cost generated by refrigerated transportation, and the time window penalty cost. In order to solve the model, a hybrid simulated annealing algorithm integrating genetic operators was designed to solve this problem. This hybrid algorithm combines local search strategies such as the selection operator without repeated strings and the crossover operator that preserves the best substring to improve the algorithm's solving performance. Numerical experiments were conducted through a set of benchmark examples, and the results showed that the proposed algorithm can adapt to problem instances of different scales. In 50 customer examples, the difference between the algorithm and the standard value in this paper is 2.30%, which is 7.29% higher than C&S. Finally, the effectiveness of the grey prediction freight path optimization model was verified through a practical case simulation analysis, achieving a logistics cost savings of 9.73%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 55th session of the UN Statistical Commission recently took place, with representatives from 129 countries and various agencies in attendance. Important decisions were made regarding inclusivity, methodological enhancements, and the establishment of working groups for new statistical standards. The session also celebrated the 30th anniversary of the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics. However, controversy arose over the establishment of an Independent Advisory Board on the FPOS, with some countries opposing external oversight. The session covered topics such as sustainable development, environmental-economic accounting, food security, and tourism statistics. Concerns were raised about the lack of a monitoring mechanism for political interference in statistical production. The SJIAOS includes an interview with the director of the UN Statistics Division and a special section on agricultural statistics. Other papers cover topics such as machine learning algorithms in agricultural surveys, household consumption surveys for food security analysis, and methodologies for identifying small-scale food producers in Italy. The document also summarizes articles in the Statistical Journal of the IAOS, which discuss a new methodology for data collection, surveys conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, time series analysis, and the importance of data utilization. [Extracted from the article]

This paper proposes a conceptual and empirical framework to develop rural transformation strategies tailored to the agroecological potential and market access of rural areas in Pakistan. Such a framework allows to move away from stereotypical countrywide policies as in use in Pakistan and many other countries. Using publicly available geospatial measures of vegetation greenness and an urban gravity model to proxy the agricultural market demand, we classify Pakistan's rural districts into categories with similar comparative advantages and describe dominant livelihood activities. The framework recommends market-based approaches to support commercial agriculture or non-agriculture business development in well-connected areas and where households have accumulated human and physical capital. In areas with less developed agricultural potential or market access, households will benefit from area-based and community-driven development, skill development, and labor programs. Since data collection is often challenging in rural areas, statistical agencies can use such an empirical framework to advise policymakers on prioritizing public investments and tailoring rural transformation pathways. In addition, statistical agencies can also extend the framework at different levels of resolution, from national to local level, and complement it with primary data sources to validate the usefulness of the approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production is highly dependent on weather conditions such as temperature, light, water and heat. The huge loss caused by extreme disaster weather makes the global insurance and reinsurance market overwhelmed, and seriously affects the enthusiasm of agricultural investment and the development of agricultural economy. With unique topography and vast territory, China is vulnerable to complex and diverse climate disasters. In recent years, the annual average economic loss caused by extreme weather disasters has reached about 200-300 billion yuan, among which floods caused by extreme heavy rainfall are the main agricultural disasters in China. In order to enhance the "farmer - insurance company - government" interest association to resist the risk of flood disaster caused by extreme heavy rainfall, financial hedging derivatives of weather disaster risk have gradually become a new hedging tool besides traditional insurance and reinsurance. This paper takes Shenyang, the main grain producing area in northeast China, as the sample of the study area, and uses the SARIMA model to obtain the distribution characteristics of seasonal rainfall time series. Different seasonal rainfall index option products (call option and put option contracts) are designed respectively, and the final option pricing is obtained by Monte Carlo stochastic simulation. The seasonal rainfall call option and put option contracts have opened up a new hedging model of agricultural extreme weather catastrophe outside the insurance and reinsurance market, which has enriched the varieties of weather financial derivatives market in China, reduced the severe impact of extreme weather disasters on agriculture, and enhanced the ability of agricultural stakeholders to resist the risk of extreme weather disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies three scientific research programs in agricultural economics. The farm management approach (1870-1933), the farm problem approach (1933-1982) and the domestic and global welfare approach (1982-). In respect to agricultural policy research two competitive research programs developed out of the farm crisis of the 1920s. One program argued for government intervention in agriculture. The other argued for stability in the general economy. The former program degenerated during the 1970s because of countervailing empirical evidence and a change in the understanding of positive economics. The latter program stayed progressive by adding the international dimension and by applying welfare economic analysis. Two other important factors influenced the development of agricultural policy. First, the unique institutional set up of the land grant system in which agricultural economics was founded as an applied science with a bias to help farmers. Second, the convergence of agricultural economics towards general economics that shifted the approach from applied to basic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate policy is regarded as a critical macroeconomic policy. Especially the misalignment of exchange rates is significantly impact on imported goods, particularly oil imports, which ultimately effect external and internal imbalances. This study conducts a systematic literature review on exchange rate misalignment, as well as an intriguing content analysis of the top 100 most cited articles. Further it identifies the most influential authors, papers and the journals in the field using citation analysis. The relevant articles are identified using the Scopus database. Three hundred and seventy‐two scholarly papers have been found relevant. The results of the content analysis show that the purchasing power parity is the most frequently used theoretical foundation, followed by the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate. Additionally, the analysis reveals that the authors primarily utilised time series data. The identification of essential and core journals is made through Bradford's Law. Schuh (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56, 1974, 1) is a pioneering study that discussed the misalignment of exchange rates in the US agriculture sector. Valérie Mignon is the most prolific author in terms of both productivity and impact. The paper authored by O'Connell (Journal of International Economics, 44, 1998, 1) titled 'overvaluation of purchasing power parity', is recognised as the most influential paper in terms of average citations per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linkages between the US and China, the world's two major agricultural powers, have brought great uncertainty to the global food markets. Inspired by these, this paper examines the extreme risk spillovers between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets during significant crises. We use a copula-conditional value at risk (CoVaR) model with Markov-switching regimes to capture the tail dependence in their pair markets. The study covers the period from January 2006 to December 2022 and identifies two distinct dependence regimes (stable and crisis periods). Moreover, we find significant and asymmetric upside/downside extreme risk spillovers between the US and Chinese markets, which are highly volatile in crises. Additionally, the impact of international capital flows (the financial channel) on risk spillovers is particularly pronounced during the global financial crisis. During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine 2022 war, the impact of supply chain disruptions (the non-financial channel) is highlighted. Our findings provide a theoretical reference for monitoring the co-movements in agricultural futures markets and practical insights for managing investment portfolios and enhancing food market stability during crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bundelkhand region of India is primarily agrarian, vulnerable to natural calamities with low levels of industrialization and urbanization. Poor crop productivity, declining and irregular rainfall pattern and poor income levels make livelihood uncertain in the region. Pulse crops assume a special significance to the farm economy in Bundelkhand region as well as daily diets of local habitants. Chickpea, lentil, field pea, urdbean, mungbean and pigeon pea are the major pulse crops cultivated in the region. Data from Department of economics and statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation and Farmers Welfare, New Delhi and the studies on pulses development of Bundelkhand region of India were analyzed. Pulses account for 32% of total agriculture produce and occupy about 33.6% of gross cropped area in the region. However, decline in area coverage of pulses has been observed in the region, in contrast to overall increase in gross cropped area in the region. The paper discusses about the various challenges confronting pulses cultivation in the region along with the possible intervention points for bringing out an enhanced pulse production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the issue of modelling the volatility of futures prices in agricultural markets. We develop a multi-factor model in which the stochastic volatility dynamics incorporate a seasonal component. In addition, we employ a maturity-dependent damping term to account for the Samuelson effect. We give the conditions under which the volatility dynamics are well defined and obtain the joint characteristic function of a pair of futures prices. We then derive the state-space representation of our model in order to use the Kalman filter algorithm for estimation and prediction. The empirical analysis is carried out using daily futures data from 2007 to 2019 for corn, cotton, soybeans, sugar and wheat. In-sample, the seasonal models clearly outperform the nested non-seasonal models in all five markets. Out-of-sample, we predict volatility peaks with high accuracy for four of these five commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guangzhou is located in the southern part of China, near the South China Sea, belongs to Guangdong Province. It serves as China's southern gateway to the world and was historically called "The Southern Treasure of the Emperor", playing a crucial role in China's maritime trade history. Throughout Chinese history, Guangzhou underwent several cycles of "closure" and "opening", policies that severely impacted trade. However, foreign merchants never ceased to request permission from the Chinese government to engage in trade. In 1757, Emperor Qianlong decreed Guangzhou as the only one official port for foreign trade. This edict led to the establishment of the one port trading system in Guangzhou, as the Qing government aimed to counter foreign influences and local uprisings while maintaining a self-sufficient small-scale agricultural economy. Western nations and their traders sought opportunities within this system, aspiring to expand trade to other regions of China, even the inland areas. The exclusive status of Guangzhou as China's only one trading port persisted until 1842, following the defeat of the Qing government in the Opium War against Britain, the Nanjing Treaty was signed. This treaty opened Guangzhou, Shanghai, Ningbo, Fuzhou, and Xiamen as trading ports, bringing an end to the one port trading system. The reasons and impacts of the establishment of this system have not been comprehensively analyzed to date. Therefore, this paper based on historical archives, analyzes both the direct and underlying reasons behind Emperor Qianlong's decision and elucidates the system's diverse impacts on various aspects of Qing-era China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agribusiness model involved the expansion of crops and the application of a technological package that has generated the use of millions of liters of agrochemicals, which exposes rural populations to simultaneous or sequenced exposure to products, which seriously affect health and the environment. These externalities are reflected in the bodyterritory of women who inhabit and/or transit rural spaces, and suffer from daily land dispossession, labor exploitation and deterioration of their health as a result of the drift of agrochemicals. In this paper I intend to make visible the struggle of women, teachers, who gave birth to the Federal Network of Teachers for Life in San Andrés de Giles (Buenos Aires province) in 2017; an environmental group that denounces these problems, promotes actions to protect the environment and the rights of students and rural families. The methodology includes the analysis of journalistic sources, fieldwork and the development of semi-structured interviews in the territory of San Andrés de Giles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a report from the editor-in chief of the "Journal of Agricultural Economics (JEA)" concerning the number in submissions of papers to the journal for 2008. It shows that the submission has increased, even without corresponding increase in accepted papers. It notes that response times continue to meet the target of four months, with some regrettable lapses. Moreover, Willey Blackwell continues to provide a strong publishing platform with the full archive of JEA papers.

The latest reform of China’s agricultural land property rights system has achieved the separation of rural land ownership, contracting rights, and management rights (the “three rights separation” reform), which is an important means for the Chinese government to achieve the rational allocation of agricultural land resources and plays an important role in improving the green and high-quality development of agriculture. Based on the panel data of 30 sample provinces in China from 2001 to 2020, this paper explores the impact of the latest rural land property rights system reform (the “three rights separation” reform) on the high-quality green development of agriculture. Research has found that, firstly, the reform of the agricultural land property rights system that separates the collective ownership of land, the contracting rights of farmers, and the management rights of land can effectively improve the green development of agriculture. Secondly, the “three rights separation” reform can enhance the green development of agriculture through three paths: expanding the scale of agricultural economy, promoting the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure, and innovating agricultural technology. In addition, fiscal investment in supporting agriculture has played a positive regulatory role in the impact of the “three rights separation” reform on the green development of agriculture. Thirdly, the impact of the “three rights separation” reform on agricultural green development is characterized by regional heterogeneity and production structure heterogeneity, with a more significant promoting effect on the eastern and central regions, as well as the main grain producing areas. The research conclusion provides new ideas for promoting sustainable agricultural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a list of index of papers by authors in the November 2004 issue of "Journal of Agricultural Economics," vol. 55.

Simple Summary: In order to mitigate the destructive effects of the occurrence of toxic conditions on mussel farming, an automated early prevention system against such conditions was installed. The analysis in this paper demonstrates that the investment is highly profitable and can contribute to achieving broader socioeconomic benefits at the local and regional level. This paper examines the financial viability and potential socioeconomic effects of introducing and operating an automated, remote-controlled management system for mussel farms which uses probes of temperature, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity associated with prediction software to demonstrate the potential need for mussel movement between marine areas. This system provides an early warning to farmers regarding the presence of toxins in aquatic ecosystems, thus contributing to saving mussel production and avoidikng significant economic losses. The analysis combines two established methodological tools in agricultural economics (linear programming and cost-benefit analysis) and provides estimates of the Net Present Value of the investment under two scenarios—one reflecting the existing situation and one a possible future situation where the mussel production system is expanded. The results of the analysis reveal the mid- and long-term effects of using the automated system, both of which demonstrate that the system is economically viable even if it contributes to saving mussel production from toxicity occurrence for only one year during its period of operation. The annual gross margin in the first scenario was €386,069 but almost tripled in the second scenario (€1,154,649). In addition, the future development and expansion of the mussel sector will likely be based on larger farms with an entrepreneurial and exporting orientation where risk mitigation systems, such as the one appraised in this paper, can play an important role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has exacerbated the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall, which has led to the perpetuation of flooding as a hazard to humans and society. China has begun to consider introducing Flood drainage rights (FDR), a sustainable flood control measure, into non-engineering measures as a complement to engineering measures for flood control. FDR represent the right of regions to discharge regional floodwaters caused by extreme rainfall into the river, and are the primary means of controlling the amount of floodwaters from regions when regional flood capacity is exceeded. However, existing studies on quantitative FDR allocation still have limitations, and some previous methods have resulted in allocation schemes that are not entirely reasonable and fair because they do not comprehensively consider the influencing factors of FDR or the allocation method is unreasonable. This paper explores the impact of flooding on rural and agricultural areas. We incorporate the factors of agricultural economy and security and construct a system of the allocation indicators of FDR composed of five principles: Natural Environmental Endowment, General Economic and Social Development, Agricultural Economy and Security, Macro policy regulation, and Respect for Historical Background. Second, considering the influence of expert judgment and data of different time nodes on the allocation of FDR, we introduce the concepts of expert weight and time weight into the allocation model of FDR, and construct a new set of framework for the allocation of FDR, i.e., "[(expert weight + subjective weight)+(time weight + objective weight)]+decision making model ". To reduce the loss of information during the transformation of subjective judgments, we also introduced triangular fuzzy numbers for the transformation between expert judgments and numbers. Finally, we take the five provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River as an example. Using the data from 2010 to 2021, we obtain the final allocation scheme (proportion) of FDR as Henan (33.26%) > Shaanxi (23.08%) > Inner Mongolia (21.31%) > Shanxi (14.44%) > Shandong (7.91%). On this basis, this paper utilizes sensitivity analysis and comparative validation to demonstrate the rationality and effectiveness of the method, and identifies several indicators that have a greater impact on the results of the allocation of FDR. FDR can form part of a set of integrated flood management system together with flood control projects, which greatly alleviates the drainage conflicts arising from flooding caused by extreme precipitation. Under extreme rainfall conditions, FDR improves drainage efficiency and minimizes the overall damage caused by flooding in the watershed. This study can contribute to the sustainable development of the watershed and provide a reference for the promotion and utilization of sustainable flood control measures. • Climate change has exacerbated extreme rainfall, causing more severe flooding. • Flood drainage rights (FDR) is a sustainable flood control measure that mitigates drainage conflicts in the basin. • We take agricultural economy and security into account in our FDR indicators. • We constructed a new framework of "[(expert weights + subjective weights) + (time weights + objective weights)] + decision model" for the allocation of FDR. • This study provides a reference for FDR in agricultural priority areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on long‐term ethnographic fieldwork with Seasonal Worker Programme (SWP) workers in south‐east Australia, I reflect in this paper on the experience of interminable temporariness and on its implications for the structural conditions underpinning contemporary horticultural labour in Australia. Although in many ways reflective of the specificities of a unique historical moment, the interminable temporariness experienced through the COVID‐19 pandemic also speaks to broader, enduring conditions produced within contemporary Australian agriculture. Here, the restructuring of the agri‐industry produces for many what Lauren Berlant describes as the "impasse" or "crisis ordinariness" of life under neoliberalism. At the same time, logics of development—including racialized imaginaries and border regimes—articulate with agricultural guest worker schemes in ways that seek to fix whole populations and regions in relations of suspended hope. In this context, I argue, the pandemic exposed and intensified structural vulnerabilities and unequal distributions of risk, which are encoded in the political economy of farm work in Australia, while also cleaving open new, if tentative, possibilities for agency and solidarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Repeat breeder cow (RBC) syndrome encompasses cows failing three or more times to become pregnant, but with the special characteristic that their estrous cycles have a normal duration. Farmers and technicians commonly feel incapable of addressing this reproductive issue, and after numerous unsuccessful attempts to conceive, it is often necessary to cull cows. Important economic losses are linked to RBC syndrome due to diagnosis, therapy, or reduced milk production, among others. This review compiles information about recent knowledge on the pathogenesis of RBC syndrome, describes treatments that could be efficient, analyzes the risk factors involved, and slightly evaluates their economic impact on farms. While it is difficult to resolve certain cases due to the multicausal nature of this syndrome, remedial therapy and management strategies are listed. Cows can have difficulties becoming pregnant, and in certain cases, these reproductive failures do not have an evident cause. Furthermore, when these failures are repeated three or more times with estrous cycles of normal duration and in the absence of evident clinical signs, it is considered repeat breeder cow (RBC) syndrome. A substantive incidence of RBC syndrome has been reported all over the world, which severely affects the farm economy. This paper reviews those studies particularly focused on RBC syndrome from 2000 to 2023 but also includes consolidated information until this date. Hormonal imbalances, undetectable oviductal or uterine defects, or poor oocyte or embryo quality have been reported as causes of RBC syndrome, while subclinical endometritis has been considered a relevant causal agent. However, it is unresolved why this condition is recurrent in certain animals, despite the implementation of corrective management actions or treatments. Recent studies evaluate the putative role of certain genes, factors, hormones, or proteins in the pathogenesis of RBC syndrome. Numerous risk factors contribute to the appearance of this syndrome, and some of them could be mitigated to partially prevent this infertility, while others cannot be changed. Due to the complexity of this syndrome, it is important to increase knowledge about the mechanisms involved, develop new diagnostic tools to differentiate causal agents, and implement new treatments to restore fertility. There is consensus about the huge repercussions of this syndrome on farm profitability, but further studies are now needed to describe its economic impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the research is to determine the specific capital costs of carrying out agricultural work with the farmers'own agricultural machines compared to the costs of agricultural services. A stratified sample based on economic size was used, consisting of 60 farms specialised in large crops from the NE and SE development regions of Romania. The novelty elements of this research consist in the fact that the analysis of the efficiency of the use of agricultural machinery uses a shadow cost--the opportunity cost--to determine the specific income of the use of agricultural machinery. The results show that small farms spend more than twice as much to carry out agricultural work with their own agricultural machinery. The average expenses per ha specific to the agricultural works carried out by farmers with their own agricultural machines recorded an average of 376.3 euro/ha for farms with a size smaller than 100 thousand SO and 186.5 euro/ha for farms with a size greater than 700 thousand SO. For a representativeness level of 69.3%, farms with a size smaller than approx. 578 thousand SO register losses if they carry out agricultural work with their own agricultural machines. This threshold can be appreciated on an area of approx. 854 ha cultivated with grain corn, common wheat, and rapeseed in equal proportions. Using the rationales and cost analysis models presented can help farmers make rational investments and strengthen informed demand in the agricultural services market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the market value for agricultural and livestock buildings involves considering various factors related to the structures, their functionality, and the overall agricultural market. The current trends and demand in the agricultural sector can influence property values. The geographical location of the property plays a significant role in determining its market value. The size and capacity of the buildings are also crucial factors. The impact of environmental factors, such as soil quality and climate conditions, on the property's productivity can influence its market value. The purpose of this work is to highlight the criteria that influence the market value for such a specialized property. In this study, nine plots of land, along with the agricultural and industrial buildings situated on them, located in Călărași County, Romania were the subject of valuation. For this, The Cost Approach was used. Also, within this method, a special importance is given to the estimation of the land's market value, in this regard The Direct Comparison Method was utilized. In conclusion, it was observed that the largest percentage of the market value of the subject property comes from the buildings situated on the land plots and not from the free land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstracts are presented for featured papers given at the 2012 annual meeting of the Economic History Association, including "The Collapse of the Continental Dollar: The Turning Point and Its Causes, An Alternative History of Financing the American Revolution, 1775-1781," by Farley Grubb, "Risk, Agricultural Technology, and Contractual Choice: Evidence from Confucius’s Lineage in Late Qing China (1759-1901)," by Helen Yang, and "The Belle Epoque of International Finance: The French Portfolio, 1880-1913," by Rui Esteves.

This article investigates spillover effects from the interlinked transactions arising from smallholder tobacco farmers' participation in contract farming arrangements in the Mazowe district of Mashonaland Central. The case study is based on data from a household survey conducted in the district and includes both tobacco farmers and households that do not produce tobacco. Interviews, participant observation and a review of statistical data and grey literature helped trace dynamics of production, intra-household relations and changing communal relations. The study explores how social relations and power imbalances shape the distribution of benefits, costs and losses resulting from the adoption of contract farming in the production of tobacco. The paper argues that the adoption of contract farming leads to a range of interlinked transactional outcomes, such as the diversification of agricultural production and new investments into non-farm activities by the poorer members of the community. In turn, these interlinked transactions generate jobs and increase food consumption and effective demand for services at the community level. However, it is also the case that the gains from these interlinked transactions are highly skewed against the poorer people in the district and that wealthier and better-connected farmers gain more from adopting tobacco than their less wealthy and less well-connected peers. This could lead to increased inequality in the community. The paper shows how agricultural dynamism generates spillover and multiplier effects that benefit communities in an unequal and poorly understood manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food regime theory identifies three distinct food regimes on a world scale: the British (1870–1930s), American (1945–1970s), and corporate food regimes (since the 1980s). In the first two regimes, political economic orders were dominated by two separate nation states, whereas the current third regime is dominated by a few mega-corporations. Consequently, traditional super nation states are finding it challenging to use food trade measures to ensure favourable world orders. However, China's state-owned agribusiness enterprises are quickly joining hands with the corporate food regime. This study aims to answer the following questions: Where is the state in the contemporary corporate food regime? How are these rising Chinese state-owned agribusiness enterprises changing the current food regime context? Applying the food regime theory, this paper aims to analyse the expansion of China's influence in the global soybean commodity chain, which is driven by four forces from the corporate food regime: liberalisation, technologicalisation, securitisation, and accumulation. These forces lead the Chinese state apparatus to address China's domestic food needs and then to establish agricultural free trade projects, biotechnology projects, soybean commodity-chain nationalisation projects, and transnational land-grabbing investments. Furthermore, such a dynamic Chinese food security context is gradually moving towards a "state-owned enterprise corporate food regime." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital agriculture solutions hold a promise to build agri-food food systems that are more efficient, environmentally sustainable, and inclusive, thereby contributing to the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals. In most African countries, the rapid adoption of mobile phones and other digital tools have accelerated the deployment of agricultural services for farmers and other value chain actors resulting in enhanced access to information, knowledge, financial services, markets, and farm tools. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to fast-track the deployment of contact-free digital solutions along the agri-food value chains. Despite the numerous opportunities presented by the digital agricultural revolution, its potential to transform agri-food systems in Africa remains uncertain. With a broad perspective on Africa, this paper explores the emerging evidence on digital agricultural services including key drivers, evidence on impact, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper concludes with some implications for policy makers and professionals in agricultural economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the 2015 paper by Henderson published In Journal of Agricultural Economics, this case study of dairy farmers in Eswatini, this case study of dairy farmers in Eswatini tests the explanatory power of two hypotheses to explain the inverse relationship between farm size and productivity. To this end, we fit a stochastic frontier production function with inefficiency effects. We find that dairy farmers who use hired labour are significantly less efficient than those who use own and family labour. This supports the labour market imperfections hypothesis. To test the technical efficiency hypothesis, we segment our sample into small, medium and large farmers based on the number of cows in milk. We find that small farmers are the most efficient (78.5%), followed by medium (75.9%) and large (75.1%) farmers, but the differences are not statistically significant. This supports Henderson's finding that differences in efficiency affect productivity but not enough to disqualify labour market imperfections as the principal explanation for the inverse relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corporate Social Responsibility in developing countries has become an emerging field of research. In this paper a model of structural equations is proposed to analyze the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility actions and its influence on Cooperation, Innovation and Performance in the Costa Rican agribusiness sector. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate the conceptual relationship model and explain the associations among variables. The model results suggest that CSR and Innovation positively influence the agribusiness Performance. On the contrary, it seems that Cooperation does not have an influence on such Performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corn is widely used as a source of starch in the food, pharmaceutical, paper, mining and construction industries.This starch is usually obtained after the cleaning process, and corn germ, fiber and protein are also produced. It is used in theproduction of biodegradable plastic bags, medicines, paper, corrugated cardboard, detergents, paints, diapers, cosmetics,glue, surfactants and agrochemicals. Corn is the most important grain in the world. After all, in addition to the highest consumptionof all grains, corn is also a universal product from which you can get fuel, electricity and household goods. Thismeans that by increasing the volume of corn processing, it is possible to go beyond the agricultural sector and create goodswith high added value. Growing corn for grain allows better use of agricultural machinery due to the later dates of sowingand harvesting. Valuable properties of corn cause its consistently high demand on the world market.Corn grain processing is part of the technological lines that are part of cereals. The main equipment that ensureshigh quality products are impact centrifugal crushers.Analysis of the operation of the impact-centrifugal crusher revealed the possibility of its operation in a wide range ofchanges in design parameters. The oretical aspects of the dependences of crusher productivity, which basically take its designparameters and modes, include: rotational speed of grinding discs, disc diameter, disc tooth length, thickness, and propertiesand parameters of grain material.As a result of the conducted researches the possibility of increase of qualitative characteristics of the processedproducts, and also productivity of the shock-centrifugal crusher is defined.To increase productivity, it is proposed to implement two options. On the one hand to make the rotational speed ofthe adjustable working body, on the other hand to increase the sizes of diameters of working disks, taking into account a designof the crusher for corn grain, having provided productivity of the crusher.The purpose of this work is to increase the efficiency of the grain crusher, which is part of the preparation of grainfor grinding, to ensure the reliability of the machine, its productivity, improve the quality of finished products by implementingautomation based on SMART-technology, defined as self-control technology and reporting. This technology provideslong-term archiving of the received data that allows the dispatcher to watch work of the corresponding equipment, reactingby means of the IT- service program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the advent of the era of big data, data mining methods show their powerful information mining ability in various fields, seeking the association information hidden in the data, which is convenient for people to make scientific decisions. This paper analyses the butterfly effect in the agricultural product industry chain from the perspective of producer and consumer by using multidimensional time and space theory and proposes a new price forecasting method. We consider that the price change of agricultural products is not only affected by the balance of market supply and demand but also by the factors of time and space. Taking the pig industry chain of Sichuan Province as an example, this paper explores and excavates the data from 2010 to 2020 in the time dimension. Interestingly, we found that the price changes in pork in the market are generally highly correlated with the prices of slaughtered pigs, piglets a few weeks ago and the prices of multiple feed a few months ago. Based on the precise time-space factors, we improved the price forecasting model, greatly improved the accuracy of price prediction, and proved the effectiveness of multidimensional spatiotemporal association mining. The research in this paper is helpful to establish a brand-new agricultural product price prediction theory, which is of great significance to the development of the agricultural economy and global poverty alleviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the factors of neo-industrialization and their impact on the functioning of Russian agriculture. The purpose of the work is to identify the key factors of neo-industrialization and assess their impact on the sustainable development of agriculture. The scale of technological changes has been studied, and a comparative analysis of neo-industrial trends in various sectors of the agro-industrial complex has been carried out. The specifics of neo-industrial processes in livestock farming are characterized in detail. A mathematical model of threefactor linear regression has been developed, characterizing the influence of parameters of technological development of Russian agriculture on changes in gross value added. The results of the empirical analysis allow us to conclude that there is a direct relationship between capital-labor ratio and gross value added, as well as between the number of highly productive workers and gross value added. It has been calculated that the investment component has the greatest influence. Thus, the increase in the share of investments in reconstruction and modernization in fixed capital affects the increase in gross value added by 223.7 billion rubles. The practical value of the results lies in the development of mechanisms to stimulate and support the introduction of innovations in agricultural production in order to accelerate neo-industrialization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]