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Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of harbour porpoises in EU waters is poorly understood, and modelled predictions of their distributions could inform the strategic spatial planning of future exploitation of the marine environment to avoid potential conflicts. We analysed satellite telemetry data from 39 harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena in inner Danish waters using a modelling tool rooted in maximum entropy: Maxent. Maxent does not require absence data and has been shown to be effective for data characterised by small sample size, sampling bias and locational errors. For each season we used an iterative bootstrapping procedure to randomly select among the most precise records from each of the 39 tagged individuals, and ran Maxent on pooled records based on explanatory environmental variables hypothesised to serve as good proxies for harbour porpoise prey abundance. Among our environmental variables, distance to coast and bottom salinity had the most explanatory power, and their response shapes were relatively consistent across most seasons. The predictive power of the models (assessed by ROC-AUC) ranged from 0.70 to 0.86 within seasons. The southern Kattegat, the Belt Seas, most western part of the Baltic Sea and the Sound were predicted to have relatively high probabilities of occurrence across seasons. In contrast, the central part of Kattegat and the Baltic Sea south and east of Limhamn and Darss Ridge consistently showed low probabilities of occurrence. Areas with the lowest probabilities of occurrence were generally characterised by high predictive uncertainty. Our methods have implications for the analyses of satellite tagged animals in terrestrial and marine environments. By coupling a bootstrapping procedure with Maxent we circumvented some of the statistical challenges presented by satellite telemetry data to generate spatial predictions within the inner Danish waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expanding populations of geese feeding on farmland during winter and spring conflict with agricultural interests along their migratory flyway in north-western Europe. In Mid-Norway, farmers scare spring-staging pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus off their land to protect crops, and this has had clear effects on goose distribution. To protect the geese, Norwegian authorities have implemented economic compensation to farmers to discourage scaring, but this has not been prioritised to accommodate the biological requirements and dispersal patterns of the geese, though such an approach is clearly needed. To address this need, we assessed the negative effects of scaring geese during 2004–2007, and built a species distribution model to identify sites suitable for goose foraging. We subsequently combined known foraging sites with sites identified by our model and prioritised these sites according to their connectivity, perimeter area ratio, years of historic use and proximity to roost. By combining historic data on foraging sites, a species distribution model, and a simple, accountable site selection process we demonstrate how the current compensation scheme can be made 10 times more efficient through strategic prioritisation. Our approach has direct implications for alleviating similar goose-agriculture conflicts throughout Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Pink-footed geese ( Anser brachyrhynchus) breed in the Arctic, where their populations have doubled since the 1980s. There is concern that nesting geese disturb the fragile tundra and lead to a trophic cascade with strong top-down effects on vegetation and soil processes. A better understanding of the distribution of geese and factors that influence nest site selection is needed to highlight potential problem areas and assess the potential for further population expansion. To help infer the importance of environmental variables on nest site selection, we built generalized additive models using nest observations collected in 2003 and 2004 from the Sassendalen valley, Svalbard, along with a suite of geographical information system explanatory predictors. The fit of the models was very high (explaining over 72% of the deviance), and predictive power to independent samples indicated useful predictions that could discriminate between presences and absence of nests very well (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves exceeded 0.88). Significant predictors of nest site selection included elevation, slope, aspect, percentage of snow cover, percentage of foraging habitat cover, and a spatial autocovariate. Spatial predictions were applied to the broader Nordenskiöldsland region of Svalbard and highlighted the importance of previously unsurveyed locations for nesting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesopelagic fishes are a vital component of the biological carbon pump and are, to date, largely unexploited. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in harvesting the mesopelagic zone to produce fish feed for aquaculture. However, great uncertainties exist in how the mesopelagic zone interacts with the climate and food webs, presenting a dilemma for policy. Here, we investigate the consequences of potential policies relating to mesopelagic harvest quotas with a dynamic social-ecological modeling approach, combining system dynamics and global sensitivity analyses informed by participatory modeling. Our analyses reveal that, in simulations of mesopelagic fishing scenarios, uncertainties about mesopelagic fish population dynamics have the most pronounced influence on potential outcomes. The analysis also shows that prioritizing the development of the fishing industry over environmental protection would lead to a significantly higher social cost of climate change to society. Given the large uncertainties and the potential large impacts on oceanic carbon sequestration, a precautionary approach to developing mesopelagic fisheries is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biotic interactions exert considerable influence on the distribution of individual species and should, thus, strongly impact communities. Implementing biotic interactions in spatial models of community assembly is therefore essential for accurately modelling assemblage properties. However, this remains a challenge due to the difficulty of detecting the role of species interactions and because accurate paired community and environment data sets are required to disentangle biotic influences from abiotic effects., Here, we incorporate data from three dominant species into community-level models as a proxy for the frequency and intensity of their interactions with other species and predict emergent assemblage properties for the co-occurring subdominant species. By analysing plant community and field-quantified environmental data from specially designed and spatially replicated monitoring grids, we provide a robust in vivo test of community models., Considering this well-defined and easily quantified surrogate for biotic interactions consistently improved realism in all aspects of community models (community composition, species richness and functional structure), irrespective of modelling methodology., Dominant species reduced community richness locally and favoured species with similar leaf dry matter content. This effect was most pronounced under conditions of high plant biomass and cover, where stronger competitive impacts are expected. Analysis of leaf dry matter content suggests that this effect may occur through efficient resource sequestration., Synthesis. We demonstrate the strong role of dominant species in shaping multiple plant community attributes, and thus the need to explicitly include interspecific interactions to achieve robust predictions of assemblage properties. Incorporating information on biotic interactions strengthens our capacity not only to predict the richness and composition of communities, but also how their structure and function will be modified in the face of global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the potential for cumulative impacts from multiple anthropogenic stressors on fish, sea birds, and marine mammals in the western, southern and south-eastern parts of marine waters around Greenland. The analysis is based on a comprehensive data set representing five human activities including two proxies for climate change, as well as 25 key animal species including commercially important fish and top predators such as sea birds and marine mammals. Anthropogenic stressors are concentrated in two areas: the offshore waters south of Greenland, and especially the western coast from the Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island) area to the southern tip of Greenland. The latter is also an area of high importance for many key species, thus the potential for cumulative impacts is high along Greenland's west coast. We conclude that this area should be under high scientific scrutiny and conservation attention. Our study is a first attempt and a stepping-stone towards more detailed and accurate estimates of the effects of multiple human stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Biotic interactions have a central role in defining species assemblages, realized both through negative and positive impacts. However, forecasts of how these interactions affect biodiversity across landscapes are challenging (and lacking) because the outcome of interactions depends not only on the identity of the interacting species but also on local environmental conditions. Thus, we study how biotic interactions manifest across a landscape. Location High-latitude northern Finland and Norway (69° N, 21° E). Methods We modelled the influence of a dominant shrub, Empetrum hermaphroditum, on spatial patterns of species richness of vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens (using cover of the shrub as a proxy for the frequency and intensity of interaction with other species) across a topographically variable landscape. Results The relationship between the cover of the dominant shrub and species richness differed between guilds, being strongest for vascular plant richness, and varied considerably along environmental gradients. The dominant shrub showed stronger negative impact on vascular plant richness under less abiotically extreme conditions. For lichens, the relationship was the opposite: under mild conditions, species richness increased with the cover of the shrub. Incorporating specific leaf area ( SLA) data into analyses revealed that the dominant shrub affected species with high SLA (typically competitive species of resource-rich environments) most negatively. Main conclusions Our findings show how the impact of a dominant species varies across a landscape, with distinctly different effects on competitive and stress-tolerant vascular plants, and on bryophytes and lichens. Spatial predictions of biodiversity trends under global environmental change could, therefore, critically benefit from accounting for context-dependent impacts of biotic interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since the Last Glacial Maximum ( LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses. Location The circumpolar Arctic and northern temperate alpine ranges. Methods We estimated the climatic niches of 30 cold-adapted plant species using range maps coupled with species distribution models and hindcasted species suitable areas to reconstructions of the mid-Holocene and LGM climates. We computed the species-specific migration distances from the species glacial refugia to their current distribution and correlated distances to extant genetic diversity in 1295 populations. Differential responses among species were related to life-history traits. Results We found a negative association between inferred migration distances from refugia and genetic diversities in 25 species, but only 11 had statistically significant negative slopes. The relationships between inferred distance and population genetic diversity were steeper for insect-pollinated species than wind-pollinated species, but the difference among pollination system was marginally independent from phylogenetic autocorrelation. Main conclusion The relationships between inferred migration distances and genetic diversities in 11 species, independent from current isolation, indicate that past range shifts were associated with a genetic bottleneck effect with an average of 21% loss of genetic diversity per 1000 km−1. In contrast, the absence of relationship in many species also indicates that the response is species specific and may be modulated by plant pollination strategies or result from more complex historical contingencies than those modelled here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about species distribution patterns in deep-sea environments, primarily because sampling surveys in the high seas are expensive and time consuming. The increasing need to manage and protect vulnerable marine ecosystems, such as cold-water corals, has motivated the use of predictive modelling tools, which produce continuous maps of potential species or habitat distribution from limited point observations and full coverage environmental data. Rapid advances in acoustic remote sensing, oceanographic modelling and sampling technology now provide high quality datasets, facilitating model development with high spatial detail. This paper provides a short overview of existing methodologies for predicting deep-sea benthic species distribution, and illustrates emerging issues related to spatial and thematic data resolution, and the use of transect-derived species distribution data. In order to enhance the ecological relevance and reliability of deep-sea species distribution models, novel techniques are presented based on a case study predicting the distribution of the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa in three carbonate mound provinces in Irish waters. Specifically, the study evaluates (1) the capacity of newly developed high-resolution (250 m grid cell size) hydrodynamic variables to explain local scale cold-water coral distribution patterns, (2) the potential value of species occurrence proportion data to maintain semi-quantitative information of coral prevalence (i.e. coverage) and sampling effort per grid cell within the response variable, and (3) mixed effect modelling to deal with spatially grouped transect data. The study shows that predictive models using vertical and horizontal flow parameters perform significantly better than models based on terrain parameters only. Semi-quantitative proportion data may decrease model uncertainty and increase model reliability, and provide a fruitful avenue of research for analysing large quantities of video data in a detailed yet time-efficient manner. The study concludes with an outlook of how species distribution models could improve our understanding of vulnerable marine ecosystem functioning and processes in the deep sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic surveys are frequently a matter of concern regarding their potentially negative impacts on marine mammals. In the Southern Ocean, which provides a critical habitat for several endangered cetacean species, seismic research activities are undertaken at a circumpolar scale. In order to minimize impacts of these surveys, pre-cruise planning requires detailed, spatio-temporally resolved knowledge on the likelihood of encountering these species in the survey area. In this publication we present predictive habitat modelling as a potential tool to support decisions for survey planning. We associated opportunistic sightings (2005-2011) of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae, N=93) and Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis, N=139) with a range of static and dynamic environmental variables. A maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) was used to develop habitat models and to calculate daily basinwide/circumpolar prediction maps to evaluate how species-specific habitat conditions evolved throughout the spring and summer months. For both species, prediction maps revealed considerable changes in habitat suitability throughout the season. Suitable humpback whale habitat occurred predominantly in ice-free areas, expanding southwards with the retreating sea ice edge, whereas suitable Antarctic minke whale habitat was consistently predicted within sea ice covered areas. Daily, large-scale prediction maps provide a valuable tool to design layout and timing of seismic surveys as they allow the identification and consideration of potential spatio-temporal hotspots to minimize potential impacts of seismic surveys on Antarctic cetacean species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most prominent pattern in global marine biogeography is the biodiversity peak in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Yet the processes that underpin this pattern are still actively debated. By reconstructing global marine paleoenvironments over the past 3 million years on the basis of sediment cores, we assessed the extent to which Quaternary climate fluctuations can explain global variation in current reef fish richness. Comparing global historical coral reef habitat availability with the present-day distribution of 6316 reef fish species, we find that distance from stable coral reef habitats during historical periods of habitat loss explains 62% of the variation in fish richness, outweighing present-day environmental factors. Our results highlight the importance of habitat persistence during periods of climate change for preserving marine biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] The present situation of declining seagrasses may be exacerbated by global change drivers. [•] We projected seagrass distribution coupling habitat suitability and hydrographical models. [•] Increasing seawater temperatures will trigger a poleward shift of Z. noltii habitat suitability. [•] The loss of southernmost populations due to climate change may imply future conservation problems. [•] SLR will increase Z. noltii suitable area in meso-macrotidal estuaries up to artificial limits. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Aim Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate will affect the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to the negative effects of non-indigenous species ( NIS). In the Arctic, there is a need to better characterize present and future marine biological introduction patterns and processes. We use a vector-based assessment to estimate changes in the vulnerability of a high- Arctic archipelago to marine NIS introduction and establishment. Location Global, with a case study of Svalbard, Norway. Methods We base our assessment on the level of connectedness to global NIS pools through the regional shipping network and predicted changes in ocean climates. Environmental match of ports connected to Svalbard was evaluated under present and future environmental conditions (2050 and 2100 predicted under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario). Risk of NIS introduction was then estimated based on the potential for known NIS to be transported (in ballast water or as biofouling), environmental match, and a qualitative estimate of propagule pressure. Results We show that Svalbard will become increasingly vulnerable to marine NIS introduction and establishment. Over the coming century, sea surface warming at high latitudes is estimated to increase the level of environmental match to nearly one-third of ports previously visited by vessels travelling to Svalbard in 2011 ( n = 136). The shipping network will then likely connect Svalbard to a much greater pool of known NIS, under conditions more favourable for their establishment. Research and fishing vessels were estimated to pose the highest risk of NIS introduction through biofouling, while ballast water discharge is estimated to pose an increased risk by the end of the century. Main conclusions In the absence of focused preventative management, the risk of NIS introduction and establishment in Svalbard, and the wider Arctic, will increase over coming decades, prompting a need to respond in policy and action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To quantify whether species distribution models ( SDMs) can reliably forecast species distributions under observed climate change. In particular, to test whether the predictive ability of SDMs depends on species traits or the inclusion of land cover and soil type, and whether distributional changes at expanding range margins can be predicted accurately. Location Finland Methods Using 10-km resolution butterfly atlas data from two periods, 1992-99 ( t1) and 2002-09 (t2), with a significant between-period temperature increase, we modelled the effects of climatic warming on butterfly distributions with boosted regression trees ( BRTs) and generalized additive models ( GAMs). We evaluated model performance by using the split-sample approach with data from t1 ('non-independent validation'), and then compared model projections based on data from t1 with species' observed distributions in t2 ('independent validation'). We compared climate-only SDMs to SDMs including land cover, soil type, or both. Finally, we related model performance to species traits and compared observed and predicted distributional shifts at northern range margins. Results SDMs showed fair to good model fits when modelling butterfly distributions under climate change. Model performance was lower with independent compared with non-independent validation and improved when land cover and soil type variables were included, compared with climate-only models. SDMs performed less well for highly mobile species and for species with long flight seasons and large ranges. When forecasting changes at northern range margins, correlations between observed and predicted range shifts were predominantly low. Main conclusions SDMs accurately describe current distributions of most species, yet their performance varies with species traits and the inclusion of land cover and soil type variables. Moreover, their ability to predict range shifts under climate change is limited, especially at the expanding edge. More tests with independent validations are needed to fully understand the predictive potential of SDMs across taxa and biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Although habitat suitability maps derived from species distribution models ( SDMs) are often assumed to highlight locations that can sustain healthy populations over time, the relationship between suitability scores and fitness parameters has rarely been tested thoroughly. Location Zackenberg Valley, north-east Greenland. Methods Using 14 years of data (1997-2010) representing three wader species (dunlin Calidris alpina, sanderling Calidris alba and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres), we tested the relationships between modelled suitability and fitness parameters at nesting locations. Results Among the three species examined, only the ruddy turnstone exhibited significant relationships between suitability and nest success, but over time rather than space. During years with extensive snow cover in the landscape, the nesting sites of ruddy turnstone occurred in different habitats than were typically used across years. Moreover, in years with extensive snow cover, the ruddy turnstone initiated nests later and suffered from higher egg predation rates. Main conclusion Our results suggest that SDMs derived from species occurrences that include years of low reproductive success may over-estimate the potential suitable habitat in the landscape. Whenever possible, variation in reproductive success should be considered when building models to inform species' response to environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of species distribution shifts in the face of climate change requires a sound understanding of population diversity and local adaptations. Previous modeling has suggested that global warming will lead to increased abundance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the ocean around Greenland, but the dynamics of earlier abundance fluctuations are not well understood. We applied a retrospective spatiotemporal population genomics approach to examine the temporal stability of cod population structure in this region and to search for signatures of divergent selection over a 78-year period spanning major demographic changes. Analyzing >900 gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in 847 individuals, we identified four genetically distinct groups that exhibited varying spatial distributions with considerable overlap and mixture. The genetic composition had remained stable over decades at some spawning grounds, whereas complete population replacement was evident at others. Observations of elevated differentiation in certain genomic regions are consistent with adaptive divergence between the groups, indicating that they may respond differently to environmental variation. Significantly increased temporal changes at a subset of loci also suggest that adaptation may be ongoing. These findings illustrate the power of spatiotemporal population genomics for revealing biocomplexity in both space and time and for informing future fisheries management and conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of species range determinants have traditionally focused on abiotic variables (typically climatic conditions), and therefore the recent explicit consideration of biotic interactions represents an important advance in the field. While these studies clearly support the role of biotic interactions in shaping species distributions, most examine only the influence of a single species and/or a single interaction, failing to account for species being subject to multiple concurrent interactions. By fitting species distribution models (SDMs), we examine the influence of multiple vertical (i.e., grazing, trampling, and manuring by mammalian herbivores) and horizontal (i.e., competition and facilitation; estimated from the cover of dominant plant species) interspecific interactions on the occurrence and cover of 41 alpine tundra plant species. Adding plant-plant interactions to baseline SDMs (using five field-quantified abiotic variables) significantly improved models' predictive power for independent data, while herbivore-related variables had only a weak influence. Overall, abiotic variables had the strongest individual contributions to the distribution of alpine tundra plants, with the importance of horizontal interaction variables exceeding that of vertical interaction variables. These results were consistent across three modeling techniques, for both species occurrence and cover, demonstrating the pattern to be robust. Thus, the explicit consideration of multiple biotic interactions reveals that plant-plant interactions exert control over the fine-scale distribution of vascular species that is comparable to abiotic drivers and considerably stronger than herbivores in this low-energy system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss-dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 2 °C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shallow, tropical marine ecosystems provide essential ecosystem goods and services, but it is unknown how these ecosystems will respond to the increased exposure to the temperature extremes that are likely to become more common as climate change progresses. To address this issue, we tracked the fitness and productivity of a key zooplankton species, the copepod Pseudodiaptomus annandalei, acclimated at two temperatures (30 and 34 °C) over three generations. 30 °C is the mean temperature in the shallow water of the coastal regions in Southeast Asia, while 34 °C simulated a temperature extreme that occurs frequently during the summer period. For each generation, we measured the size at maturity and reproductive success of individuals. In all three generations, we found strong negative effects of warming on all measured fitness-related parameters, including prolonged development time, reduced size at maturity, smaller clutch sizes, lower hatching success, and reduced naupliar production. Our results suggest that P. annandalei are already exposed to temperatures that exceed their upper thermal optimum. Increased exposure to extreme temperatures may reduce the abundance of these tropical marine copepods, and thus reduce the availability of resources to higher trophic levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]