Search

In recent years, various early warning signals of critical transition have been presented, such as autocorrelation at lag 1 [AR(1)], variance, the propagator based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA-propagator), and so on. Many studies have shown that the climate system has the characteristics of long-term memory (LTM). Will the LTM characteristics of the climate system change as it approaches possible critical transition points? In view of this, the present paper first studies whether the LTM of several folding (folded bifurcation) models changes consistently as they approach their critical points slowly by the rescaled range (R/S) analysis. The results of numerical experiments show that when the control parameters of the folding model are close to its critical threshold, the Hurst exponent H exhibits an almost monotonic increase (significance level α = 0.05). We compare the performance of R/S with the existing indicators, including AR(1), variance, and DFA-propagator, and find that R/S is a perfectly valid alternative. When there is no extra false noise, AR(1) and variance have good early warning effects. After the addition of extra Gaussian white noise of different intensities, the values of AR(1) and variance change significantly. As a result, the DFA-propagator based on AR(1) calibration also changed significantly. Compared with the other three indicators, the early warning effect of H has stronger ability to resist the interference of external false signals. To further verify the validity of increasing H, paleoclimate reconstruction of Cariaco Basin sediment core grayscale record with long trends filtered out is studied by R/S analysis. The other three early warning signals are calculated in the same way. The data contain a well-known abrupt climate change: the transition between the Younger Dryas (YD) and the Holocene. We find that approximately 300 years before this abrupt climate change occurred, before 11.7 kyr BP, the LTM exponents for Cariaco Basin deglacial grayscale data present an obvious increasing trend at a significant level of α = 0.05. Meanwhile, the variation trend of H and DFA-propagator is basically similar. This shows that increasing H by R/S analysis is an effective early warning signal, which indicates that a dynamic system is approaching its possible critical transition points; H is a completely valid alternative signal for AR(1) and DFA-propagator. The main conclusion of this paper is based on numerical experiments. The precise relationship between H and the stability of the underlying state approaching the transition needs to be further studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does a warming world, where extremely hot summers are becoming more common, mean that cold summers will never again occur? It is crucial to know whether extremely cold summers are still possible, as such knowledge will significantly impact decisions regarding the further adaptation of crops to cold summers. Japan, which has suffered from many extremely cold summers, has managed past agricultural disruptions with emergency rice imports. In this paper, we show that a climate regime shift associated with the positive phase shift of the summer Arctic Oscillation occurred in 2010 in northeast Eurasia, making the occurrence of extremely cold summers highly unlikely as long as this new regime persists. In fact, Japan has not experienced a cold summer since 2010, while extremely hot summers have been frequent. Since 2010, a double-jet structure with subtropical and polar jets has strengthened, and the polar jet has meandered farther north of Japan, resulting in an upper-tropospheric anticyclone. This anticyclone, which extends downward and tilts southward, reaches southern Japan and prevents cold advection of oceanic air over the cold Oyashio. The Okhotsk high, known as the leading cause of cold summers, has occurred frequently in recent years; however, cold summers have not occurred due to the tilting anticyclone. The recent warming of the Oyashio weakens cold advection. The Pacific–Japan pattern, known as a remote tropical influence, has been weakened. A better understanding of the regime shift will help us understand the tilting anticyclone and the associated extreme summers in northeast Eurasia. Significance Statement: Extremely cold summers are among the most destructive natural disasters, both socioeconomically and agriculturally. Historically, food shortages due to cold summers have triggered wars. This paper proposes that a hemispheric-scale climate regime shift occurred in or around 2010. This regime shift has included warmings in the North Pacific and East Eurasian land surface temperatures. The regime shift is accompanied by the positive shift of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), a jet meander, and an upper-tropospheric anticyclone, making eastern Eurasia extremely hot. Our results imply that extremely cold summers are unlikely to occur in eastern Eurasia so long as this regime persists. Moving forward, it is important that the link between this regime shift and global warming be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) were evaluated on their ability to simulate tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) over its annual cycle. Specifically, we examined these models' ability to simulate the south–north migration of the mean TC genesis location. The results revealed that both types of models realistically captured TC numbers and the south–north migration of TC genesis locations associated with the meridional migration of the WNP subtropical high ridge in response to the annual cycle. However, TC numbers decreased less rapidly in the AGCMs than in both the CGCMs and observed data during the monsoon retreat period (after September). This bias was probably attributed to a low-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over the Philippine Sea in response to La Niña–like sea surface temperature (SST) differences between the AGCMs and the CGCMs. Because of these differences, the TC genesis frequency in the AGCMs over the Philippine Sea was overestimated. The cyclonic anomaly occurred when the northeasterly trade wind arose and was maintained through wind–evaporation–SST feedback. In future climate (2021–50), the main changes occurred during the monsoon retreat period. A more rapid decrease in TC numbers shown in AGCMs was likely attributed to the decrease (increase) of low-level vorticity (vertical wind shear) modulated by enhanced WNP subtropical high and subsidence anomalies. Conversely, a cyclonic circulation and ascending anomalies projected by CGCMs were identified off-equator, which favored TC genesis location shifting northward. Significance Statement: Model performance and future changes in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific are investigated. We found that high-resolution uncoupled and coupled models realistically captured the TC numbers and meridional migration of TC genesis locations associated with the meridional migration of subtropical high ridge. However, TC numbers decreased more gradually in the uncoupled models than in the coupled models after September. This lower skill may stem from differences between the uncoupled and coupled models in simulating a cyclonic anomaly over the Philippine Sea in response to the La Niña–like sea surface temperature difference. In future climate (2021–50), TC numbers are significantly projected to decrease more rapidly during the monsoon retreat period in uncoupled models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand how extratropical cyclones (ETCs) may change in a warmer climate, we conduct idealized baroclinic life cycle simulations using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON)–NWP model with varied initial conditions. With respect to a present-day climate, two experiments are highlighted: a 4-K uniform warming and a more realistic late twenty-first-century warming pattern projected by a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6), model. Different ETC deepening mechanisms, especially by diabatic processes, are quantified via the pressure tendency equation analysis, and the horizontal model resolution dependency is examined by contrasting coarse-grid (80 km) and convection-permitting (2.5 km) simulations. While our simulated ETCs are primarily baroclinically driven, dominated by the horizontal warm-air advection in the air column above the surface low, such an effect only strengthens by 10% in both warming experiments. However, the direct contribution of diabatic heating to surface pressure drop almost doubles, which likely feeds back positively to horizontal warm-air advection. Although their combined response to warming is pronounced, it is largely offset by the strengthened adiabatic cooling (17%) due to enhanced upward motions in warmer and moister ETCs, leading to a marginal ETC deepening at maturity (lowers by ∼1.5–4 hPa). Nevertheless, the near-surface impacts strongly increase, particularly the local extreme precipitation (up to 56%). The convection-permitting and the coarse-grid simulations show qualitatively consistent ETC responses to global warming. We suggest that the systematically weaker ETCs (with higher central pressure) in 2.5-km compared to 80-km simulations might be primarily caused by model uncertainty in representing the convective-diabatic heating over the warm front near the cyclone core. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed precipitation changes in the Southeast United States (SEUS) are spatially heterogeneous. Most of the inland SEUS and eastern Gulf Coast become drier, and the East Coast north of Charleston, South Carolina, and southern Florida become wetter from the old 30-yr period of 1961–90 to the recent period of 1991–2020. The observed climate change is examined from the perspective of daily weather types (WTs). A k-means clustering analysis has been conducted using daily 850-hPa circulation for 1948–2021. The obtained 10 WTs peak in different seasons, respectively. The frequencies and precipitation intensity of the WTs have been analyzed. A winter WT characterized by a western Appalachian trough (WAT) and a summer WT featuring North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) have a rising trend of annual frequency from 1948 to 2021. An Appalachian high in the autumn has a decreasing frequency but becomes drier and stronger. Some precipitation intensity change and small location shift have also been observed. The drying up on the eastern Gulf Coast and the inland area of the SEUS is mainly caused by the weakened southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) on the western flank of the NASH that reduces rain in the spring, the less frequent but stronger and drier Appalachian high in the summer and autumn, and the weaker and more western located Plains trough (PT) in the winter, spring, and autumn. The precipitation increase in the East Coast and southern Florida is majorly due to more frequent, stronger, and rainier troughs along the western Appalachian as well as the East Coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change projections show amplified warming associated with dry conditions over tropical land. We compare two perspectives explaining this amplified warming: one based on tropical atmospheric dynamics and the other focusing on soil moisture and surface fluxes. We first compare the full spatiotemporal distribution of changes in key variables in the two perspectives under a quadrupling of CO2 using daily output from the CMIP6 simulations. Both perspectives center around the partitioning of the total energy/energy flux into the temperature and humidity components. We examine the contribution of this temperature/humidity partitioning in the base climate and its change under warming to rising temperatures by deriving a diagnostic linearized perturbation model that relates the magnitude of warming to 1) changes in the total energy/energy flux, 2) the base-climate temperature/humidity partitioning, and 3) changes in the partitioning under warming. We show that the spatiotemporal structure of warming in CMIP6 models is well predicted by the inverse of the base-climate partition factor, which we term the base-climate sensitivity: conditions that are drier in the base climate have a higher base-climate sensitivity and experience more warming. On top of this relationship, changes in the partition factor under intermediate (between wet and dry) surface conditions further enhance or dampen the warming. We discuss the mechanistic link between the two perspectives by illustrating the strong relationships between lower-tropospheric temperature lapse rates, a key variable for the atmospheric perspective, and surface fluxes, a key component of the land surface perspective. Significance Statement: Understanding what conditions give rise to the largest magnitude of warming in response to rising CO2 concentrations is not only scientifically important but also critical from a climate impact standpoint. Two main perspectives, one focusing on atmospheric dynamics and the other focusing on land surface processes, have been proposed to explain the stronger warming associated with drier conditions in the tropics. Here, we compare and contrast these two perspectives. We demonstrate that amplified warming in CMIP6 models can largely be predicted from base-climate dryness alone in both perspectives but is further modified based on changes in the partitioning of energy between temperature and moisture. We highlight the spatiotemporal conditions where assumptions in the two perspectives hold and where deviations occur within CMIP6 climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation is projected to increase under greenhouse warming with strong intraseasonal variation. Using a 35-member CESM Large Ensemble and 30 CMIP6 models, this study reveals that in July and August, maximum rainfall changes in East Asia take place in the midlatitudes, influencing regions encompassing North and Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. The intensified precipitation is attributed to the combined effect of the thermodynamic and dynamic components. The former stems from the enriched low-level moisture, which peaks in continental East Asia in July and August, under global warming. The dynamic effect is due to the enhanced upward motion, associated with the enhanced southerlies throughout the troposphere over midlatitude East Asia. The southerlies also act to intensify the low-level monsoonal circulation, strengthening moisture transport from the tropical ocean to the midlatitudes. In addition to the mean-state changes, the precipitation interannual variability in this region also intensifies, partly due to the enhanced low-level moisture and partly associated with enhanced large-scale circulation anomalies, such as the northwestern Pacific anticyclone. The enhanced background precipitation, along with the intensified interannual variability, may lead to more rainy summers in a warmer climate, with instances where historically extreme precipitation events become more frequent, posing challenges for water resource management and agriculture in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Of concern to Colorado River management, as operating guidelines post-2026 are being considered, is whether water resource recovery from low flows during 2000–20 is possible. Here, we analyze new simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to determine plausible climate impacts on Colorado River flows for 2026–50 when revised guidelines would operate. We constrain projected flows for Lees Ferry, the gauge through which 85% of the river flow passes, using its estimated sensitivity to meteorological variability together with CMIP6-projected precipitation and temperature changes. The critical importance of precipitation, especially its natural variability, is emphasized. Model projections indicate increased precipitation in the upper Colorado River basin due to climate change, which alone increases river flows by 5%–7% (relative to a 2000–20 climatology). Depending on the river's temperature sensitivity, this wet signal compensates for some, if not all, of the depleting effects of basin warming. Considerable internal decadal precipitation variability (∼5% of the climatological mean) is demonstrated, driving a greater range of plausible Colorado River flow changes for 2026–50 than previously surmised from treatment of temperature impacts alone: the overall precipitation-induced Lees Ferry flow changes span from −25% to +40%, contrasting with a range from −30% to −5% from expected warming effects only. Consequently, extreme low and high flows are more likely. Lees Ferry flow projections, conditioned on initial drought states akin to 2000–20, reveal substantial recovery odds for water resources, albeit with elevated risks of even further flow declines than in recent decades. Significance Statement: Increasing temperatures have led to concerns that Colorado River flows will be permanently reduced due to global warming. Here, we analyze precipitation, surface temperature, and streamflow (at Lees Ferry) in the upper Colorado River basin since 1895 revealing precipitation to be the largest contributor to runoff variability while temperature variability has been a much smaller contributor. New climate model projections indicate increased precipitation in the upper basin due to global warming, acting to increase river flows by 5%–7% during 2026–50. This wet signal compensates for some of the depleting effects from further basinwide warming. Critically, the large intrinsic variability in precipitation is demonstrated to yield a wider range of future Colorado River flows than previously foreseen based solely on considering temperature effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has shown that there is a projected increase in the frequency of strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (spIOD) events in terms of both sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation. However, it is not clear whether the spIOD events defined by SST and precipitation, hereafter referred to as SST-spIOD and Pr-spIOD events, respectively, will increase at the same pace under greenhouse warming. Using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and CMIP6 that can reasonably simulate the spIOD events, here we find that the occurrence of Pr-spIOD events increases much more than that of SST-spIOD events (+217% vs +77%) under the future high-emission scenario. The diverse response stems from a notably large increase in the spIOD events with strong rainfall but moderate SST anomalies (Pr-only spIOD), which is facilitated by a change in the local meridional Hadley circulation induced by land–sea thermal contrast in addition to the background mean-state SST warming. For the spIOD events with prominent anomalies in both rainfall and SST (concurrent spIOD), their occurrences are projected to increase, but their average SST amplitude is projected to weaken. The increased occurrence is associated with a westward-extended structural change induced by mean linear zonal advection feedbacks, while the weakened event-average SST amplitude results from a more stabilized atmosphere and coincides with the projected reduction in IOD SST skewness. Our results suggest that IOD-related mitigation strategies should consider the diverse responses of different kinds of spIOD events to greenhouse warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately assessing cyclone intensity changes due to global warming is crucial for predicting and mitigating sequential hazards. This study develops a high-resolution, fully coupled air–sea model to investigate the impact of global warming on Supertyphoon Mangkhut (2018). A numerical sensitivity analysis is conducted using the pseudo–global warming (PGW) technique based on multiple global climate models (GCMs) from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Under ocean warming scenarios, the increasing average sea surface temperature (SST) by 2.26°, 2.44°, 3.45°, and 4.53°C results in reductions in the minimum sea level pressure by 9.2, 10.6, 15.7, and 19.4 hPa, respectively, compared to the original state of Typhoon Mangkhut. Rising SST increases the turbulent heat flux; to be specific, an average SST increase of 2.26°–4.53°C changes the turbulent heat flux into 177%–272% of the original value. Besides, stronger winds enhance SST cooling, including upwelling and entrainment, leading to an increase in the mixed layer depth (MLD). Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) tends to be enhanced under the combined influences as the SST rises. An average increase in the SST of 2.26°, 2.44°, 3.45°, and 4.53°C leads to an increase in the TCHP of 9.94%, 9.85%, 14.67%, and 15.30%, respectively. However, future changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity will moderate typhoon intensification induced by ocean warming. Considering atmospheric conditions, the maximum wind speed decreases by approximately 10% compared to only considering ocean warming. Nevertheless, typhoon intensity is projected to strengthen under future climate change. Significance Statement: This study examines the role of global warming in typhoon intensity and the response of typhoon events to changes in the oceanic thermal structure. Sensitivity experiments considering future warming climates are conducted using a fully coupled air–sea numerical model. An average increase in sea surface temperature (SST) by 4.53°C can lead to a reduction in the minimum sea level pressure by 19.4 hPa. Ocean warming enhances oceanic mixing, potentially increasing the availability of heat energy for typhoon's development (i.e., an average increase in SST by 4.53°C leads to a 15.30% increase in heat energy). However, future changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity will moderate the intensification of typhoons induced by ocean warming. These results are expected to provide information for assessing the future changes in typhoon intensity under a warming climate, which is important for predicting and reducing sequential risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate system responds to changes in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols through rapid processes, triggered within hours and days, and through slower processes, where the full response may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we aim to elucidate the mechanisms operating on time scales of hours to years to better understand the response of key climate quantities such as energy fluxes, temperature, and precipitation after a sudden increase in either carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon (BC), or sulfate (SO4) aerosols. The results are based on idealized simulations from six global climate models. We find that the effect of changing ocean temperatures kicks in after a couple of months. Rapid precipitation reductions start occurring instantly and are established after just a few days. For BC, they constitute most of the equilibrium response. For CO2 and SO4, the magnitude of the precipitation response gradually increases as surface warming/cooling evolves, and for CO2, the sign of the response changes from negative to positive after 2 years. Rapid cloud adjustments are typically established within the first 24 h, and while the magnitude of cloud feedbacks for CO2 and SO4 increases over time, the geographical pattern of the equilibrium cloud change is present already after the first year. While there are model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing. Significance Statement: How does the climate system respond to a change in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols? Some processes are rapid, responding within hours and days. Others are slow, and the full response to a forcing of the climate may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we use six global climate models to investigate the time scales of climate responses to carbon dioxide, black carbon, and sulfate, focusing on key climate quantities, such as temperature, precipitation, and clouds. While there are ample model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the trends in hot summer days for the Pacific Northwest in observations and a regional climate model ensemble. Hot days are identified by the temperature threshold for several percentile values computed over 10-yr intervals (85th, 90th, and 95th percentiles and absolute maximum) to differentiate heat events of different intensities and are compared to the median temperature (50th percentile). For the stations analyzed, the observed rate of warming during hot days is not statistically different from the warming rate of median days since the 1950s. However, for projections to 2100, hot days show a statistically significant increase in the warming rate of the hottest days compared to the warming rate for median days. Depending on location, the 95th-percentile daily maximum temperature shows a warming rate of up to 0.2°C decade−1 above the median warming rate. The divergence in the trends of median and extreme temperature shows substantial regional variation depending on local terrain and coastlines. The warming trend during hot days is related to the unique circulation patterns during heat events, which respond to different feedbacks and amplifying effects in the land–atmosphere system from those that prevail during typical days. The regional climate model simulations are taken from an ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations forced by 12 global climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and 12-km grid spacing. Significance Statement: The heatwave of June 2021 had substantial societal and ecological impacts, illustrating vulnerability to record-shattering events. This paper addresses whether climate change can cause heat events in the Pacific Northwest to warm at a more rapid rate than typical days. Based on observations, in the recent past, the hottest days warmed at about the same rate as typical days in the recent past. However, results from a high-resolution climate model show a higher rate of warming during the warmest days relative to median days under the most aggressive future emissions scenario. This effect could cause heatwaves to become more intense relative to typical days by 2100, making adaptation to extreme events more difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here, we introduce the concept of "outdoor days" to describe how climate change can affect quality of life for different communities and individuals. An outdoor day is characterized by moderate temperature, neither too cold nor too hot, allowing most people to enjoy outdoor activities. The number of "outdoor days" is a nonlinear function of the daily surface air temperature. If the latter falls within a specific range describing assumed thermal comfort conditions, then we assign that day as an "outdoor day." Using this function, we describe climate change impacts on temperature differently, compared to other studies which often describe these impacts in terms of the linear averaging of daily surface air temperature. The introduction of this new concept offers another way for communicating how climate change may impact the quality of life for individuals who usually plan their outdoor activities based on how local weather conditions compare to their preferred levels of thermal comfort. Based on our analysis of regional variations in "outdoor days," we present observational and modeling evidence of a north–south disparity in climate change impacts. Under high-emission scenarios, CMIP5 and CMIP6 models project fewer "outdoor days" for people living in developing countries, primarily located in low-latitude regions. Meanwhile, developed countries in mid- and high-latitude regions could gain more "outdoor days," redistributed across seasons. Significance Statement: We introduce a novel concept: outdoor days, characterizing surface air temperature conditions that allow for outdoor activities, such as walking, jogging, and cycling, by most people. We project that under high-emission scenarios of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, a north–south disparity of climate change risk will be enhanced considerably toward the end of this century due to more frequent outdoor days in the wealthy Global North and less frequent outdoor days in the deprived Global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a range of Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) simulations from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we study the response of dynamic sea level (DSL) to external anthropogenic climate forcing [greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and stratospheric ozone] with a focus on the differences over the twentieth and twenty-first century. In the second half of the twentieth century, the DSL nonuniformity in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was relatively small due to a cancellation between the effects of increasing GHGs and aerosols. In contrast, the DSL signal in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) over this period was large because stratospheric ozone depletion reinforced the effects of increasing GHGs. In the twenty-first century, the DSL response has been intensified in the NH because the warming effects of diminishing aerosols have acted to reinforce the effects of increasing GHGs. Meanwhile, the distribution of SH DSL has also become uneven although stratospheric ozone recovery has partially offset the effects of rising GHGs. Using a global ocean circulation model, we decompose the changes in the twenty-first century DSL into distinct responses to surface forcings including sea surface temperature, salinity, and wind stress. Our results show that the dipole-like pattern of DSL in the North Pacific can be attributed largely to sea surface warming, while the dipole-like pattern in the North Atlantic is attributed to subpolar surface salinity freshening. The belted pattern of DSL changes in the Southern Ocean is induced by both surface warming and intensifying/poleward-shifting westerly winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat lows are key features of subtropical climates and monsoon systems. In southern Africa, they are pivotal to understanding divergent climate change projections, in particular the veracity of future rainfall decline. Compared to other heat lows, including in West Africa and Australia, the southern African heat low remains poorly documented. Here, we analyze the diurnal cycle, seasonal variability, and trends of the heat low in reanalysis data. In ERA5, 462 strong heat low days are detected between September and March from 1990 to 2019, equating to 7.3% of days sampled. These events feature ascent (exceeding −0.2 Pa s−1) at low levels (strongest between 800 and 600 hPa) and subsidence aloft, generating low-level cyclonic flow with anticyclonic flow above. This flow exhibits strong diurnal variability, with peak windspeeds between 0600 and 0900 UTC and maximum ascent at ∼2300 UTC. Heat lows form preferentially over Angola in September (∼14°S) and October (15°–20°S), and in Namibia from November to March (∼20°–26°S). Strongest ascent occurs over areas of high elevation. Finally, we show a rapidly increasing frequency of strong heat low days, with a 175% increase between 1960–89 and 1990–2019. The greatest increase (459%) has occurred in the early summer months of September and October, consistent with projections of delayed rainfall onset. Strikingly, more strong heat lows are detected in the most recent 5 years of analysis (2014–19) than in the 30-yr period from 1960 to 1989. These results suggest the heat low is an important feature in determining drying trends over southern Africa and is a vital indicator of climate model accuracy. Significance Statement: This work documents the heat low that forms in southern Africa in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. The feature is present during austral summer (from September to March) and is associated with below average rainfall across much of the subcontinent. The frequency of strong heat lows has rapidly increased in line with regional amplified warming trends. The heat low is identified as an important control on circulation and precipitation patterns and changes in the frequency or intensity of the feature in the future are likely to influence the strength of declining rainfall trends across southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models generally predict a poleward shift of the midlatitude circulation in response to climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas concentration, but the intermodel spread of the eddy-driven jet shift is large and poorly understood. Recent studies point to the significance of midlatitude midtropospheric diabatic heating for the intermodel spread in the jet latitude. To examine the role of diabatic heating in the jet response to climate change, a series of simulations are performed using an idealized aquaplanet model. It is found that both increased CO2 concentration and increased saturation vapor pressure induce a similar warming response, leading to a poleward and upward shift of the midlatitude circulation. An exception to this poleward shift is found for a certain range of temperatures, where the eddy-driven jet shifts equatorward, while the latitude of the eddy heat flux remains essentially unchanged. This equatorward jet shift is explained by the connection between the zonal-mean momentum and heat budgets: increased diabatic heating in the midlatitude midtroposphere balances the cooling by the Ferrel cell ascending branch, enabling an equatorward shift of the Ferrel cell streamfunction and eddy-driven jet, while the latitude of the eddy heat flux remains unchanged. The equatorward jet shift and the strengthening of the midlatitude diabatic heating are found to be sensitive to the model resolution. The implications of these results for a potential reduction in the jet shift uncertainty through the improvement of convective parameterizations are discussed. Significance Statement: The latitude of the eddy-driven jet displays considerable variation in climate models, and the factors influencing this variability are poorly understood. This work connects the strength of midlatitude diabatic heating to the structure of the midlatitude circulation and the eddy-driven jet latitude. The direction of the eddy-driven jet shift in response to climate change is found to depend on the diabatic heating response, which in turn depends on the parameterized convective heating. These results highlight the role of convective parameterizations in the representation of the midlatitude circulation in climate models. Additionally, the results imply that the eddy-driven jet shift cannot be explained solely based on the storm-track response to climate change, in contrast with previously suggested explanations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indian Ocean (IO) stratification has important effects on the air–sea interaction, ocean dynamics, and ecology. It is, therefore, of significance to investigate the changes in IO stratification. In this study, we use ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to extract the nonlinear long-term trend in the upper IO stratification quantified by potential energy anomalies. The results show that the strengthening of the stratification is spatially and temporally nonuniform. Specifically, the trend of stratification intensified gradually before 1996, but accelerated rapidly after 1996. Temperature and salinity changes play a crucial role in the fast enhancement of stratification and its regional differences. Temperature variations dominate the stratification trend in ∼90% of the IO area, while the contributions of salinity changes are mainly in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO). Vertically, the rapid enhancement of stratification is caused by the trend of temperature and salt in the upper 400 m. We further perform temperature budget analysis and find that the warming trend in the upper 400 m south of the IO is mainly modulated by vertical advection and meridional advection, while the warming in the north of the IO is mainly induced by air–sea heat fluxes. Salinity budget analysis shows that ocean advection has played a primary role in modulating SEIO salinity over the past 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface air temperatures (LSAT) inferred from weather station data differ among major research groups. The estimate by NOAA's monthly Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCNm) averages 0.02°C cooler between 1880 and 1940 than Berkeley Earth's and 0.14°C cooler than the Climate Research Unit estimates. Such systematic offsets can arise from differences in how poorly documented changes in measurement characteristics are detected and adjusted. Building upon an existing pairwise homogenization algorithm used in generating the fourth version of NOAA's GHCNm(V4), PHA0, we propose two revisions to account for autocorrelation in climate variables. One version, PHA1, makes minimal modification to PHA0 by extending the threshold used in breakpoint detection to be a function of LSAT autocorrelation. The other version, PHA2, uses penalized likelihood to detect breakpoints through optimizing a model-selection problem globally. To facilitate efficient optimization for series with more than 1000 time steps, a multiparent genetic algorithm is proposed for PHA2. Tests on synthetic data generated by adding breakpoints to CMIP6 simulations and realizations from a Gaussian process indicate that PHA1 and PHA2 both similarly outperform PHA0 in recovering accurate climatic trends. Applied to unhomogenized GHCNmV4, both revised algorithms detect breakpoints that correspond with available station metadata. Uncertainties are estimated by perturbing algorithmic parameters, and an ensemble is constructed by pooling 50 PHA1- and 50 PHA2-based members. The continental-mean warming in this new ensemble is consistent with that of Berkeley Earth, despite using different homogenization approaches. Relative to unhomogenized data, our homogenization increases the 1880–2022 trend by 0.16 [0.12, 0.19]°C century−1 (95% confidence interval), leading to continental-mean warming of 1.65 [1.62, 1.69]°C over 2010–22 relative to 1880–1900. Significance Statement: Accurately correcting for systematic errors in observational records of land surface air temperature (LSAT) is critical for quantifying historical warming. Existing LSAT estimates are subject to systematic offsets associated with processes including changes in instrumentation and station movement. This study improves a pairwise homogenization algorithm by accounting for the fact that climate signals are correlated over time. The revised algorithms outperform the original in identifying discontinuities and recovering accurate warming trends. Applied to monthly station temperatures, the revised algorithms adjust trends in continental mean LSAT since the 1880s to be 0.16°C century−1 greater relative to raw data. Our estimate is most consistent with that from Berkeley Earth and indicates lesser and greater warming than estimates from NOAA and the Met Office, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A main source of regional climate change uncertainty is the large disparity across models in simulating the atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Using the latest suite of global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a storyline approach is adopted to derive physically plausible scenarios of Antarctic climate change for 2070–99, according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5. These storylines correspond to differences in the simulated amount of seasonal sea ice loss and either (i) the delay in the summertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) breakdown or (ii) wintertime SPV strengthening, which together constitute robust drivers of the response pattern to future climate change. Such changes combined are known to exert a strong control over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet stream, which we quantify as collectively explaining up to 70% of the variance in jet response in summer and 35% in winter. For summer, the expected strengthening and displacement of the tropospheric jet stream varies between a ∼1 and 2 m s−1 increase and ∼2°–4° poleward shift, respectively, across storylines. In both seasons, a larger strengthening of the jet is correlated with less Antarctic warming. By contrast, the response in precipitation is more consistent but still strongly attenuated by large-scale dynamics. We find that an increase in high-latitude precipitation around Antarctica is more pronounced for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift, particularly in summer. Our results highlight the usefulness of the storyline approach in illustrating model uncertainty and understanding the processes that determine the spread in projected Antarctic regional climate response. Significance Statement: Uncertainty in future climate predictions for the Antarctic is dominated by the unknown response of the large-scale (global) atmospheric circulation. In characterizing such uncertainty, plausible outcomes of climate response (storylines) are generated from the organization of model projections according to the amount of simulated seasonal sea ice loss and the delay in summertime breakdown/winter strengthening of the stratospheric westerly circulation (polar vortex). The intensity and location of the tropospheric jet stream is strongly dependent on both factors, which strongly influences the near-surface climate response over Antarctica. We find that the simulated amount that Antarctic air temperatures increase by in the future (to the end of the century) is intrinsically related to the projected intensification of the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet, varying by a factor of 2 or more across storylines for summer. Storylines with greater jet strengthening are associated with less Antarctic warming (reduced poleward advection of air masses from lower latitudes). Similar differences are found for changes in jet position, which we note has a much stronger control on mid- to high-latitude precipitation response. This includes both an enhanced wetting response around Antarctica and drying response farther equatorward, for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing how global warming affects tropical cyclones (TC) is immensely important for climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation. However, projected intensity and size change can vary greatly among different individual storms, even under the same forcing in pseudo–global warming (PGW) experiments. Here we hypothesize that these variations are related to the historical environment in which each TC was embedded. Twenty-five TCs in the South China Sea (SCS) region were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Their changes in the near (2036–65) and far future (2075–99) following the representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and 4.5 (RCP4.5) under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were investigated by the PGW technique. The mean changes in TC intensity and gale-force wind radius (R17) in the SCS were +6.4% and +1.5% for a 2°C warming, respectively. Multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analysis revealed that storm intensity variations were positively correlated with historical sea surface temperature and negatively with outer (i.e., outside the TC's R17) atmospheric instability, while the R17 variations correlated positively with outer midtropospheric relative humidity (RH) and surface outer wind speed (OWS). Ertel potential vorticity (EPV) diagnostics further showed a moister SCS background can cause stronger diabatic heating and EPV production at the spiral rainbands under PGW, which increases R17. Additionally, stronger background absolute angular momentum (AAM) promoted stronger AAM influx, leading to larger R17. Implications were drawn to explain the uncertainties in projected TC intensity and size due to natural variability. Significance Statement: Changes in the intensity and size of individual tropical cyclones in future climates are highly variable. This study aims to understand the environmental factors influencing these variations. We selected 25 storms that entered the South China Sea region and modeled them in both present and future climates. The mean intensity and size were projected to increase by 6.4% and 1.5% for a 2°C warming, respectively. We found that tropical cyclones embedded in historically warmer oceans and more stable atmospheres intensified more than the others, while historically wetter and windier environments promoted larger size growth. Our results suggest that certain tropical cyclones can exhibit a greater increase in intensity and size in a warmer climate under favorable environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weighting models according to their performance has been used to produce multimodel climate change projections. But the added value of model weighting for future projection is not always examined. Here we apply an imperfect model framework to evaluate the added value of model weighting in projecting summer temperature changes over China. Members of large-ensemble simulations by three climate models of different climate sensitivities are used as pseudo-observations for the past and the future. Performance of the models participating in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated against the pseudo-observations based on simulated historical climatology and trends in global, regional, and local temperatures to determine the model weights for future projection. The weighted projections are then compared with the pseudo-observations in the future period. We find that regional trend as a metric of model performance yields generally better skill for future projection, while past climatology as performance metric does not lead to a significant improvement to projection. Trend at the grid-box scale is also not a good performance indicator as small-scale trend is highly uncertain. For the model weighting to be effective, the metric for evaluating the model's performance must be relatable to future changes, with the response signal separable from internal variability. Projected summer warming based on model weighting is similar to that of unweighted projection but the 5th–95th-percentile uncertainty range of the weighted projection is 38% smaller with the reduction mainly in the upper bound, with the largest reduction appearing in southeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, the topography, climate, ecology, hydrology, and human environment vary greatly from southeast to northwest, and a typical natural and social environmental transition zone (i.e., comprehensive transition zone) exists near the "Hu Huanyong line," which is a famous demographic dividing line in China, known as the Hu zone. Dry and wet climate changes in the Hu zone can have a significant impact on terrestrial ecosystems and hydrological conditions, ultimately affecting human–land relations. However, there is still a lack of clear understanding of environmental changes in the context of climate change in the Hu zone. Here, a quantitative analysis of climate change and its impacts on terrestrial hydrology and ecosystems from 1951 to 2020 is presented. The results showed that there exists a significant drying trend in the Hu zone and a dramatic decrease in terrestrial water storage (TWS), indicating that the environment has become worse. Conversely, from the perspective of significant greening, the environment has improved. This contradiction is mainly due to climate change dominating the depletion of TWS, while the increase in vegetation greenness is more driven by human activities including agricultural management and ecological restoration, offsetting to some extent the negative impact of water scarcity on vegetation growth. Significance Statement: The Hu zone is a transition zone between southeast and northwest China, which is a sensitive area under climate change as well as key region for coordinated development. The purpose of this study is to reveal the long-term climate change in the Hu zone and its impacts on hydrology and ecology. Our results indicate a significant drying trend in this zone over the last 70 years, which led to a substantial reduction in water storage. However, the vegetation coverage increased due to human activities. This study provides guidance for agricultural structure adjustment and ecological protection in transition zones. Future research should focus more on the assessment and risk management of dry/wet changes in climate transition areas around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often characterized through the use of sea surface temperature (SST) departures from their climatological values, as in the Niño-3.4 index. However, this approach is problematic in a changing climate when the climatology itself is varying. To address this issue, van Oldenborgh et al. proposed a relative Niño-3.4 SST index, which subtracts the tropical mean SST anomaly from the Niño-3.4 index and multiplies by a scaling factor. We extend their work by providing a simplified calculation procedure for the scaling factor, and confirm that the relative index demonstrates reduced sensitivity to climate change and multidecadal variability. In particular, we show in three observational SST datasets that the relative index provides a more consistent classification of historical El Niño and La Niña oceanic conditions that is more robust across climatological periods compared to the nonrelative index. Forecast skill of the relative Niño-3.4 index in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) and ACCESS-S2 is slightly reduced for targets during the first half of the year because subtracting the tropical mean removes a source of additional skill. For targets in the second half of the year, the relative and nonrelative indices are equally skillful. Observed ENSO teleconnections in 200-hPa geopotential height and precipitation during key seasons are sharper and explain more variability over Australia and the contiguous United States when computed with the relative index. Overall, the relative Niño-3.4 index provides a more robust option for real-time monitoring and forecasting ENSO in a changing climate. Significance Statement: The goal of this study is to further explore a relative sea surface temperature index for monitoring and prediction of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Sea surface temperature indices are typically computed as a difference from a 30-yr climatological average, and El Niño and La Niña events occur when values exceed a certain threshold. This method is suitable when the climate is stationary. However, because of climate change and other lower-frequency variations, historical El Niño and La Niña events are reclassified depending on which climatological period is selected. A relative index is investigated to ameliorate this problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic Ocean warming and sea ice loss are closely linked to increased ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic and changes in surface heat fluxes. To quantitatively assess their respective roles, we use the 100-member Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), Large Ensemble over the 1920–2100 period. We first examine the Arctic Ocean warming in a heat budget framework by calculating the contributions from heat exchanges with atmosphere and sea ice and OHT across the Arctic Ocean gateways. Then we quantify how much anomalous heat from the ocean directly translates to sea ice loss and how much is lost to the atmosphere. We find that Arctic Ocean warming is driven primarily by increased OHT through the Barents Sea Opening, with additional contributions from the Fram Strait and Bering Strait OHTs. These OHT changes are driven mainly by warmer inflowing water rather than changes in volume transports across the gateways. The Arctic Ocean warming driven by OHT is partially damped by increased heat loss through the sea surface. Although absorbed shortwave radiation increases due to reduced surface albedo, this increase is compensated by increasing upwelling longwave radiation and latent heat loss. We also explicitly calculate the contributions of ocean–ice and atmosphere–ice heat fluxes to sea ice heat budget changes. Throughout the entire twentieth century as well as the early twenty-first century, the atmosphere is the main contributor to ice heat gain in summer, though the ocean's role is not negligible. Over time, the ocean progressively becomes the main heat source for the ice as the ocean warms. Significance Statement: Arctic Ocean warming and sea ice loss are closely linked to increased ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic and changes in surface heat fluxes. Here we use 100 simulations from the same climate model to analyze future warming and sea ice loss. We find that Arctic Ocean warming is primarily driven by increased OHT through the Barents Sea Opening, though the Fram and Bering Straits are also important. This increased OHT is primarily due to warmer inflowing water rather than changing ocean currents. This ocean heat gain is partially compensated by heat loss through the sea surface. During the twentieth century and early twenty-first century, sea ice loss is mainly linked to heat transferred from the atmosphere; however, over time, the ocean progressively becomes the most important contributor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface and air temperature gradient (TS00 − Tair) drives the development of the convective boundary layer and the occurrence of clouds and precipitation. However, its variability is still poorly understood due to the lack of high-quality observations. This study fills in this gap by investigating the diurnal to decadal variability in TS00 − Tair from 2002 to 2022 based on hourly observations collected at over 100 stations of the U.S. Climate Reference Network. It is found that TS00 − Tair reaches its maximum at noon with an average of 6.85°C over the contiguous United States, which decreases to 4.28°C when the soil moisture exceeds 30%. The daily minimum of TS00 − Tair has an average of −2.08°C, which generally occurs in the early evening but is postponed as the cloud fraction decreases. Moreover, while existing studies have used the near-surface soil temperature, such as the 5-cm soil temperature (TS05), to calculate TS05 − Tair, we find that TS00 − Tair and TS05 − Tair have opposite diurnal cycles, and their amplitudes differed drastically. The daily minimum of TS00 − Tair has a significant decreasing trend (−0.50° ± 0.007°C decade−1) from 2002 to 2022 due to Tair increasing at a higher rate than TS00 during the nighttime. The occurrence frequency of near-surface stable conditions (TS00 − Tair < 0) increases significantly, and the frequency of unstable conditions (TS00 − Tair > 0) decreases notably throughout the year except for winter. When it is stable, the magnitude of TS00 − Tair tends to decrease while the TS00 − Tair tends to increase when it is unstable, which is consistent with the drying condition caused by the precipitation deficit. This study provides the first observational evidence on how TS00 − Tair responds to warming. Significance Statement: The impact of global warming on surface-air temperature gradients is a crucial scientific issue that needs to be addressed. These gradients determine changes in cloud and precipitation, affecting water resources. However, traditional surface temperature measurements from weather stations are of high uncertainty due to direct exposure to the insolation. Satellite retrieval of surface temperature is limited by the availability of clear sky conditions, with low accuracy for temperature gradient calculations. Despite their importance, high-accuracy data of land surface temperature are still lacking. To address this issue, the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) uses infrared radiometers to continuously monitor surface temperature with high accuracy and sampling frequency. This study reports on surface-air temperature gradients at more than 100 U.S. stations, providing insight into diurnal to decadal variability over the contiguous United States. The study also highlights the significant difference between the land surface temperature–air temperature gradient and soil temperature–air temperature gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the tropical Pacific is a pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. In both historical simulations and future projections, the current state-of-the-art climate models show evident spread in the changes of zonal SST gradient, but the reasons remain unknown. Here, we quantify the contributions of internal variability and model spread to the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes by analyzing 342 realizations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and several sets of large-ensemble simulations. We found that the internal variability dominates the total uncertainty at multidecadal time scales (∼31-yr trends). Although the ratio of internal uncertainty to the total uncertainty declines along with higher emission of greenhouse gases under global warming, it is still over 80% at the multidecadal time scales in the future. The Pacific decadal oscillation is identified as the key internal mode responsible for the multidecadal uncertainty. For the future projections at centurial time scales, the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes is mainly from the intermodel spread in response to external forcing, accounting for about 70% of the uncertainty based on the difference between 2070–99 and 1970–99. The model spread in the cloud–shortwave radiation–SST feedback over the tropical Pacific is important in the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes. In particular, the intensity of negative convective cloud feedback in the western Pacific dominates the spread in CMIP5 models, while the intensity of stratocumulus cloud feedback over the southeastern Pacific is the primary process influencing the uncertainty in CMIP6 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future Arctic sea ice loss has a known impact on Arctic amplification (AA) and mean atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, several studies have shown it leads to a decreased variance in temperature over North America. In this study, we analyze results from two fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) simulations with sea ice nudged to either the ensemble mean of WACCM historical runs averaged over the 1980–99 period for the control (CTL) or projected RCP8.5 values over the 2080–99 period for the experiment (EXP). Dominant large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are then identified using self-organizing maps applied to winter daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies ( Z 500 ′ ) over North America. We investigate how sea ice loss (EXP − CTL) impacts the frequency of these LSMPs and, through composite analysis, the sensible weather associated with them. We find differences in LSMP frequency but no change in residency time, indicating there is no stagnation of the flow with sea ice loss. Sea ice loss also acts to de-amplify and/or shift the Z 500 ′ that characterize these LSMPs and their associated anomalies in potential temperature at 850 hPa. Impacts on precipitation anomalies are more localized and consistent with changes in anomalous sea level pressure. With this LSMP framework we provide new mechanistic insights, demonstrating a role for thermodynamic, dynamic, and diabatic processes in sea ice impacts on atmospheric variability. Understanding these processes from a synoptic perspective is critical as some LSMPs play an outsized role in producing the mean response to Arctic sea ice loss. Significance Statement: The goal of this study is to understand how future Arctic sea ice loss might impact daily weather patterns over North America. We use a global climate model to produce one set of simulations where sea ice is similar to present conditions and another that represents conditions at the end of the twenty-first century. Daily patterns in large-scale circulation at roughly 5.5 km in altitude are then identified using a machine learning method. We find that sea ice loss tends to de-amplify these patterns and their associated impacts on temperature nearer the surface. Our methodology allows us to probe more deeply into the mechanisms responsible for these changes, which provides a new way to understand how sea ice loss can impact the daily weather we experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene (approximately 3.3–3.0 Ma) was one of the past geological warm periods. Since this past warmer climate was in many respects comparable to near future warming projections, how the regional monsoonal rainfall changed during the mid-Pliocene is an important scientific and socioeconomic concern. Based on phase 2 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), this work examines the simulated changes of Sahel summer rainfall during the mid-Pliocene. The results show the considerable intermodel uncertainty of the simulated mid-Pliocene Sahel rainfall changes in the PlioMIP2 multimodel ensemble, which is due to the uncertainties of both the simulated dynamic and thermodynamic responses to this past warmer climate. In particular, we find that the intermodel spread in the simulated northern North American warming is a major source of the uncertainty of the mid-Pliocene Sahel summer rainfall changes through two processes. One is a direct dynamic process: a stronger warming over northern North America could enhance the meridional temperature gradient between the extratropical and tropical regions, inducing an interhemisphere energy imbalance of the atmosphere. This could lead to a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, strengthening the Western African summer monsoon (WASM) circulation and Sahel summer rainfall. Another is an indirect thermodynamic process: the strengthened WASM circulation could further induce anomalous moisture convergence over the Sahel region, increasing local atmospheric moisture at the low-level troposphere, in favor of a wetter Sahel. Our results suggest that an improved warming simulation over northern North America is essential for the hydrological cycle simulation around the Sahel in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate. Significance Statement: The Sahel summer rainfall change in a global warmer climate is a widespread scientific and socioeconomic issue because of its important impacts on regional agriculture, ecosystems, food security, water resources, and even cultural environment. However, the present study identifies a nonnegligible intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene (one of the most recent geological warm periods in Earth's history) in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) multimodel ensemble. In particular, such an intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene is attributed to that of the simulated northern North America warming via both the direct dynamic process and the indirect thermodynamic process. This is quite different from the uncertainty source of near-future projections of Sahel summer rainfall changes. The present results improve our understanding of the underlying physics of the hydrological cycle change around the Sahel region in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate, with implications for the future projections of regional monsoonal rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent studies have highlighted differences in simulated properties of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under transient and equilibrium responses to increasing CO2. However, the reasons behind these disparate responses and the extent to which they are robust to different scales of CO2 forcing remain unclear. In this study, we adopt a climate system model with reduced SST bias in the eastern tropical Pacific and incrementally apply abrupt increases in CO2, analyzing outputs after each simulation reaches quasi-equilibrium with the imposed forcing. The results suggest that ENSO activity under quasi-equilibrium first increases and then decreases with increasing CO2, peaking in simulations with CO2 concentrations similar to the present day. Bjerknes–Jin stability analysis indicates that changes in the ENSO growth rate result primarily from changes in the thermocline feedback and thermodynamic damping terms. While thermodynamic damping increases monotonically with increasing CO2, the positive thermocline feedback varies within the range of internal variability up to twice the preindustrial value of CO2 and then weakens sharply with further increases. The mechanisms behind these changes include weaker mean ocean upwelling and weaker dynamical coupling between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean associated with substantial near-surface freshening at higher levels of CO2. These changes steepen the thermodynamic barrier to mixing between the surface and subsurface, weakening the east–west temperature gradient in the mean state and suppressing variability in the cold tongue. Analysis of similar model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) archive indicates that changes in the Bjerknes–Jin stability index are robust but do not establish a consensus as to the mechanisms behind them. Significance Statement: This study investigates how El Niño–Southern Oscillation changes with increasing CO2 forcing by using a global model with improved tropical Pacific climate. The simulations roughly correspond to scenarios in which emissions are reduced to maintain CO2 concentrations at near-constant values over a long period, with levels ranging from about 2/3 to more than 5 times the present-day concentration. Analysis of these simulations suggests that ENSO activity is strongest when CO2 concentrations are similar to the present-day and becomes substantially weaker when CO2 is more than double its present-day value. Reduced ENSO activity with further increases in CO2 is caused by weaker interactions between the atmosphere and the subsurface ocean. Both the amplitude of warm (El Niño) events and the occurrence frequency of warm and cold (La Niña) events decrease as ENSO events become first more difficult to grow and then more difficult to trigger with increasing CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the globe has experienced significant warming trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, these rates of warming are also influenced by short-term climate fluctuations driven by atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting in inconsistent trend magnitudes in both time and space. This research evaluated winter (December-February) temperature trends over 1950-2020 at 91 climate stations across British Columbia (BC), Alberta (AB), and Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and determined the components attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic (atmospheric circulation) factors. A synoptic climatological approach was used to classify atmospheric circulation patterns in the midtroposphere, relate those patterns to surface temperature, and evaluate changes in frequency. Moderate to high temperature increases over 71 years were found for most of the region, averaging 3.18C in southern SK to 4.1℃ in central-northern AB, and a maximum of 5.8℃ in northern BC. Low to moderate increases were found for southern BC, averaging 1.2℃. Changes in atmospheric circulation accounted for 29% and 31% of observed temperature changes in central-northern BC and AB, respectively. Dynamic factors were a moderate driver in southern AB (18%) and central-northern SK (13%), and low in southern SK (5%). Negative dynamic contributions in southern BC (-6%), suggest that atmospheric circulation changes counteracted thermodynamically driven temperature changes. Results were consistent with trend analyses, indicating this method is well suited for trend detection and identification of thermodynamic and dynamic drivers. Results of this research improve our understanding of the magnitude of winter temperature changes critical for informing adaptation and climate-related policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that link retreating sea ice to increased Arctic cloud amount and cloud water content are unclear. Using the fifth generation of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), the long-term changes between years 1950-79 and 1990-2019 in Arctic clouds are estimated along with their relationship to sea ice loss. A comparison of ERA5 to CERES satellite cloud fractions reveals that ERA5 simulates the seasonal cycle, variations, and changes of cloud fraction well over water surfaces during 2001-20. This suggests that ERA5 may reliably represent the cloud response to sea ice loss because melting sea ice exposes more water surfaces in the Arctic. Increases in ERA5 Arctic cloud fraction and water content are largest during October-March from ~950 to 700 hPa over areas with significant (>15%) sea ice loss. Further, regions with significant sea ice loss experience higher convective available potential energy (~2-2.75 J kg-1), planetary boundary layer height (~120-200 m), and near-surface specific humidity (~0.25-0.40 g kg-1) and a greater reduction of the lower-tropospheric temperature inversion (~3°-4℃) than regions with small (<15%) sea ice loss in autumn and winter. Areas with significant sea ice loss also show strengthened upward motion between 1000 and 700 hPa, enhanced horizontal convergence (divergence) of air, and decreased (increased) relative humidity from 1000 to 950 hPa (950-700 hPa) during the cold season. Analyses of moisture divergence, evaporation minus precipitation, and meridional moisture flux fields suggest that increased local surface water fluxes, rather than atmospheric motions, provide a key source of moisture for increased Arctic clouds over newly exposed water surfaces during October-March. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using the large-ensemble simulation from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP370 scenario). Three SST change patterns are featured, distinguished by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific warming. MJO characteristics and its teleconnections responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the zonal SST gradient changes are examined. Results show that the anomalously strong El Niño-like SST change pattern significantly intensifies the MJO amplitude and enhances its eastward extension compared to the anomalously weak El Niño-like SST change pattern. These changes in MJO amplitude are further interpreted through the α framework. We also found no statistically different extratropical geopotential height responses to MJO between the three SST warming patterns, possibly due to strong internal climate variability. Changes in Rossby wave source between clusters also show a weak relationship with the MJO teleconnections. Our results highlight the importance of Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient changes on the changes of MJO but limited impacts on MJO teleconnections to the midlatitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twenty years of satellite-based cloud and radiation observations allow us to examine the observed cloud radiative effect (CRE) feedback (i.e., CRE change per unit change in global mean surface temperature). By employing a decomposition method to separate the contribution of "internal changes" and "relative-frequency-of-occurrence (RFO) changes" of distinct cloud regime (CR) groups, notable seasonal contrasts of CRE feedback characteristics emerge. Boreal winter CRE feedback is dominated by the positive shortwave CRE (SWCRE) feedback of oceanic low-thick clouds, due to their decreasing RFO as temperature rises. This signal is most likely due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. When ENSO signals are excluded, boreal winter CRE feedback becomes qualitatively similar to the boreal summer feedback, where several CR groups contribute to the total CRE feedback more evenly. Most CR groups' CRE feedbacks largely come from changing RFO (e.g., the predominant transition from oceanic cumulus to broken clouds and more occurrences of higher convective clouds with warming temperature). At the same time, low-thick and broken clouds experience optical thinning and decreasing cloud fraction, and these features are more prominent in boreal summer than winter. Overall, the seasonally asymmetric patterns of CRE feedback, primarily due to ENSO, introduce complexity in assessments of CRE feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe convective storms (SCS) and their associated hazards present significant societal risk. Understanding of how these hazards, such as hailfall, may change due to anthropogenic climate change is in its infancy. Previous methods used to investigate possible changes in SCS and their hail used climate model output and were limited by their coarse spatiotemporal resolution and less detailed representations of hail. This study instead uses an event-level pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach to simulate seven different hailstorms in their historical environments, and again in five different end-of-century PGW environments obtained from the worst-case scenario increases in CO2 of five different CMIP5 members. Changes in large-scale environmental parameters were generally found to be consistent with prior studies, showing mostly increases in CAPE, CIN, and precipitable water, with minor changes in vertical wind shear. Nearly all simulated events had moderately stronger updrafts in the PGW environments. Only cold-season events showed an increase in hail sizes both within the storms and at the surface, whereas warm-season events exhibited a decrease in hail sizes at the surface and aloft. Changes in the event-total hailfall area at the ground also showed a seasonal trend, with increases in cold-season events and decreases in warm-season events. Melting depths increased for all PGW environments, and these increases likely contributed to greater rainfall area for warm-season events, where an increase in smaller hail aloft would be more prone to melting. The differences in PGW simulation hail sizes in cold-season and warm-season events found here are likely related to differences in microphysical processes and warrant future study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal cycle in temperature is a large and well-observed response to radiative forcing, suggesting its potential as a natural analog to human-caused climate change. Although there have been advances constraining some climate feedback parameters using seasonal observations, the seasonal cycle has not been used to inform about the local temperature sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing. In this study, we uncover a nonlinear relationship between the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle and forced temperature trends in seven CMIP5-era large ensembles across the Northern Hemisphere extratropical continents. We develop a mixture energy balance model that reproduces this relationship and reveals the unexpected finding that the phasing of the seasonal cycle-in addition to the amplitude-contains information about local temperature sensitivity to seasonal forcing over land. Using this energy balance model framework, we compare the pattern and magnitude of the seasonally inferred sensitivity of the surface temperature response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. The seasonally constrained model largely reproduces the pattern of human-caused temperature trends seen in climate models (r = 0.81, p value < 0.01), including polar amplification, but the magnitude of the response is smaller by about a factor of 3. Our results show the relevance of both phasing and amplitude for constraining patterns of local feedbacks and suggest the utility of additional research to better understand the differences in sensitivity between seasonal and greenhouse gas forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate projections obtained by running global climate models (GCMs) are subject to multisource uncertainties. The existing framework based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) for decomposing such uncertainties is unable to include the interaction effect between GCM and internal climate variability, which ranks only second to the main effect of GCM in significance. In this study, a three-way ANOVA framework is presented, and all main effects and interaction effects are investigated. The results show that, although the overall uncertainty (O) is mainly contributed by main effects, interaction effects are considerable. Specifically, in the twenty-first century, the global mean (calculated at the grid-cell level and then averaged, and likewise below) relative contributions of all main effects are 54% for precipitation and 82% for temperature; those of all interaction effects are, respectively, 46% and 18%. As the three-way ANOVA cannot investigate the uncertainty components resulting from uncertainty sources, it is improved by deducing the relationship between uncertainty components resulting from uncertainty sources and those resulting from the main effects and interaction effects. By the improved three-way ANOVA, O is decomposed into uncertainty components resulting from the emission scenario (S), GCM(M), and internal climate variability (V). The results reveal that O is mainly contributed by M in the twenty-first century for precipitation, and byMbefore the 2060s whereas by S thereafter for temperature. The robustness of the V characterization is explored by investigating the variation of V on the number of included ensemble members. The extent of the underestimation of the V contribution is roughly an average of 4%for precipitation and 1%for temperature. KEYWORDS: Climate change; Climate prediction; Uncertainty; Climate models; Internal variabilityClimate projections obtained by running global climate models (GCMs) are subject to multisource uncertainties. The existing framework based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) for decomposing such uncertainties is unable to include the interaction effect between GCM and internal climate variability, which ranks only second to the main effect of GCM in significance. In this study, a three-way ANOVA framework is presented, and all main effects and interaction effects are investigated. The results show that, although the overall uncertainty (O) is mainly contributed by main effects, interaction effects are considerable. Specifically, in the twenty-first century, the global mean (calculated at the grid-cell level and then averaged, and likewise below) relative contributions of all main effects are 54% for precipitation and 82% for temperature; those of all interaction effects are, respectively, 46% and 18%. As the three-way ANOVA cannot investigate the uncertainty components resulting from uncertainty sources, it is improved by deducing the relationship between uncertainty components resulting from uncertainty sources and those resulting from the main effects and interaction effects. By the improved three-way ANOVA, O is decomposed into uncertainty components resulting from the emission scenario (S), GCM(M), and internal climate variability (V). The results reveal that O is mainly contributed by M in the twenty-first century for precipitation, and byMbefore the 2060s whereas by S thereafter for temperature. The robustness of the V characterization is explored by investigating the variation of V on the number of included ensemble members. The extent of the underestimation of the V contribution is roughly an average of 4%for precipitation and 1%for temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar radiation management (SRM) with injections of aerosols into the stratosphere has emerged as a research area of focus with the potential to cool the planet. However, the amount of SRM required to achieve a given level of cooling, and how this relationship evolves in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, remains uncertain. Here, we explore the evolution of solar dimming efficacy over time by defining and quantifying a new SRM feedback term, which is analogous to conventional radiative feedbacks. Using Earth system model simulations that dynamically adjust the amount of insolation to offset global mean warming from increasing CO2, we find that positive SRM feedbacks decrease global planetary albedo and diminish the efficacy of solar dimming. Physically, the decrease in albedo is primarily due to reductions in optically thick tropical cloud fraction in the boundary layer and midtroposphere, which is driven by a drying and destabilization of the tropical mid- to lower troposphere. These results offer an energetic explanation for reduced cloud fraction commonly observed in idealized SRM experiments, as well as reaffirm the need to understand the troposphere response, particularly from clouds, in realizable geoengineering experiments and their potential to feed back onto SRM efficacy. Significance Statement: The goal of this study is to understand how the effectiveness of solar geoengineering may evolve over time. Using a climate model with the ability to directly tune the amount of incoming sunlight, we explore the potential for feedback loops in the climate system to diminish or amplify the desired effect of solar tuning, which is to offset greenhouse gas–induced warming. For this climate model and this solar geoengineering proxy, in particular, we find that feedback loops reduce Earth's albedo and therefore diminish the desired effect of turning down the sun over time. This study lays the groundwork for understanding potential feedback loops in climate model simulations that represent solar geoengineering in a more realistic way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of precipitation extremes over land are crucial for socioeconomic risk assessments, yet model discrepancies limit their application. Here we use a pattern-filtering technique to identify low-frequency changes in individual members of a multimodel ensemble to assess discrepancies across models in the projected pattern and magnitude of change. Specifically, we apply low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to the intensity and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over land in 21 CMIP-6 models. LFCA brings modest but statistically significant improvements in the agreement between models in the spatial pattern of projected change, particularly in scenarios with weak greenhouse forcing. Moreover, we show that LFCA facilitates a robust identification of the rates at which increasing precipitation extremes scale with global temperature change within individual ensemble members. While these rates approximately match expectations from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on average across models, individual models exhibit considerable and significant differences. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that these differences contribute to uncertainty in the magnitude of projected change at least as much as differences in the climate sensitivity. Last, we compare these scaling rates with those identified from observational products, demonstrating that virtually all climate models significantly underestimate the rates at which increases in precipitation extremes have scaled with global temperatures historically. Constraining projections with observations therefore amplifies the projected intensification of precipitation extremes as well as reducing the relative error of their distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and model simulations have confirmed that the higher percentiles of precipitation intensity of all wet days have increased with the local daily dewpoint temperature at the Clausius–Clapeyron (C-C) rate of 7% °C−1 using the binning technique over China. It is uncertain whether the binning scaling rates will remain constant in the future climate. Here, we use daily precipitation and dewpoint temperature (DPT) over China from 20 CMIP6 models to examine and project the change of binning scaling of precipitation extremes. The results of the study suggest that the multimodel ensemble median (MEM) generally captures the spatial distribution of binning scaling rates and binning curves in different climate zones across China. The binning scaling rates have stability in the future but with a large increasing trend (more than 30%) in southeast China in the far future (2061–2100) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. CMIP6 models project that both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature for the plateau mountain zone will increase in the far future under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, implying that the peak structure does not provide an upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Significance Statement: The binning scaling rates describe the relationship between precipitation extremes and temperature based on their day-to-day variations. However, it is still unclear whether the binning scaling rates of daily precipitation extremes with daily temperature will change in the future. We use 20 CMIP6 models to project the scaling rates of precipitation extremes with dewpoint temperature over China in the future. The results show that the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to dewpoint temperature will generally be stable, except that southeast China shows an increasing trend of up to 30%. Moreover, the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature will increase with warming in the plateau mountain zone. Our results have implications for precipitation prediction and risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A review of many studies published since the late 1920s reveals that the main driving mechanisms responsible for the early-twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) are not fully recognized. The main obstacle seems to be our limited knowledge about the climate of this period and some forcings. A deeper knowledge based on greater spatial and temporal resolution data is needed. The article provides new (or improved) knowledge about surface air temperature (SAT) conditions (including their extreme states) in the Arctic during the ETCAW. Daily and subdaily data have been used (mean daily air temperature, maximum and minimum daily temperature, and diurnal temperature range). These were taken from 10 individual years (selected from the period 1934–50) for six meteorological stations representing parts of five Arctic climatic regions. Standard SAT characteristics were analyzed (monthly, seasonal, and yearly means), as were rarely investigated aspects of SAT characteristics (e.g., number of characteristic days, day-to-day temperature variability, and the onset, end, and duration of thermal seasons). The results were compared with analogical calculations done for data taken from the contemporary Arctic warming (CAW) period (2007–16). The Arctic experienced warming between the ETCAW and the CAW. The magnitude of warming was greatest in the Pacific (2.7°C) and Canadian Arctic (1.9°C) regions. A shortening of winter and lengthening of summer were noted. Furthermore, the climate was also a little more continental (except the Russian Arctic) and less stable (greater day-to-day variability and diurnal temperature range) during the ETCAW than during the CAW. Significance Statement: It is well established that human activity (particularly increased greenhouse gas emissions) is the primary driving mechanism of the recent dramatic warming in the Arctic. However, the causes of a similar warming here in the first half of the twentieth century remain uncertain. The limited knowledge about the climate of that period—which mainly results from the low resolution of data—is a significant obstacle to a definitive determination of the forcing mechanisms. Therefore, the main aim of our paper is to improve our understanding of specific aspects of weather and climate (including extremes) using long-term series of daily and subdaily data that have rarely been applied for this purpose. This new, more comprehensive knowledge about the historical Arctic climate should allow the scientific community (particularly climate modelers) to better validate both climate models and reanalysis products and, consequently, to more precisely identify the causes of the early-twentieth-century Arctic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the downscaling of an ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 12-km grid spacing over the period 1970–2099, examining the mesoscale impacts of global warming as well as the uncertainties in its mesoscale expression. The RCP8.5 emissions scenario was used to drive both global and regional climate models. The regional climate modeling system reduced bias and improved realism for a historical period, in contrast to substantial errors for the GCM simulations driven by lack of resolution. The regional climate ensemble indicated several mesoscale responses to global warming that were not apparent in the global model simulations, such as enhanced continental interior warming during both winter and summer as well as increasing winter precipitation trends over the windward slopes of regional terrain, with declining trends to the lee of major barriers. During summer there is general drying, except to the east of the Cascades. The 1 April snowpack declines are large over the lower-to-middle slopes of regional terrain, with small snowpack increases over the lower elevations of the interior. Snow-albedo feedbacks are very different between GCM and RCM projections, with the GCMs producing large, unphysical areas of snowpack loss and enhanced warming. Daily average winds change little under global warming, but maximum easterly winds decline modestly, driven by a preferential sea level pressure decline over the continental interior. Although temperatures warm continuously over the domain after approximately 2010, with slight acceleration over time, occurrences of temperature extremes increase rapidly during the second half of the twenty-first century. Significance Statement: This paper provides a unique high-resolution view of projected climate change over the Pacific Northwest and does so using an ensemble of regional climate models, affording a look at the uncertainties in local impacts of global warming. The paper examines regional meteorological processes influenced by global warming and provides guidance for adaptation and preparation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the downscaling of an ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 12-km grid spacing over the period 1970–2099, examining the mesoscale impacts of global warming as well as the uncertainties in its mesoscale expression. The RCP8.5 emissions scenario was used to drive both global and regional climate models. The regional climate modeling system reduced bias and improved realism for a historical period, in contrast to substantial errors for the GCM simulations driven by lack of resolution. The regional climate ensemble indicated several mesoscale responses to global warming that were not apparent in the global model simulations, such as enhanced continental interior warming during both winter and summer as well as increasing winter precipitation trends over the windward slopes of regional terrain, with declining trends to the lee of major barriers. During summer there is general drying, except to the east of the Cascades. The 1 April snowpack declines are large over the lower-to-middle slopes of regional terrain, with small snowpack increases over the lower elevations of the interior. Snow-albedo feedbacks are very different between GCM and RCM projections, with the GCMs producing large, unphysical areas of snowpack loss and enhanced warming. Daily average winds change little under global warming, but maximum easterly winds decline modestly, driven by a preferential sea level pressure decline over the continental interior. Although temperatures warm continuously over the domain after approximately 2010, with slight acceleration over time, occurrences of temperature extremes increase rapidly during the second half of the twenty-first century. Significance Statement: This paper provides a unique high-resolution view of projected climate change over the Pacific Northwest and does so using an ensemble of regional climate models, affording a look at the uncertainties in local impacts of global warming. The paper examines regional meteorological processes influenced by global warming and provides guidance for adaptation and preparation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ISCCP continues to quantify the global distribution and diurnal-to-interannual variations of cloud properties in a revised version. This paper summarizes assessments of the previous version, describes refinements of the analysis and enhanced features of the product design, discusses the few notable changes in the results, and illustrates the long-term variations of global mean cloud properties and differing high cloud changes associated with ENSO. The new product design includes a global, pixel-level product on a 0.1° grid, all other gridded products at 1.0°-equivalent equal area, separate satellite products with ancillary data for regional studies, more detailed, embedded quality information, and all gridded products in netCDF format. All the data products including all input data, expanded documentation, the processing code, and an operations guide are available online. Notable changes are 1) a lowered ice–liquid temperature threshold, 2) a treatment of the radiative effects of aerosols and surface temperature inversions, 3) refined specification of the assumed cloud microphysics, and 4) interpolation of the main daytime cloud information overnight. The changes very slightly increase the global monthly mean cloud amount with a little more high cloud and a little less middle and low cloud. Over the whole period, total cloud amount slowly decreases caused by decreases in cumulus/altocumulus; consequently, average cloud-top temperature and optical thickness have increased. The diurnal and seasonal cloud variations are very similar to earlier versions. Analysis of the whole record shows that high cloud variations, but not low clouds, exhibit different patterns in different ENSO events. Significance Statement: This paper reports on the evolution of the research goals and satellite cloud data products produced by ISCCP, a long-term international project, which is now fully operational. The growing length of record with 10-km and 3-h sampling makes possible studies of cloud variations from diurnal-to-weather scale (cloud process scale) to climate variation scale. In particular the length of record includes many examples of ENSO and is beginning to encompass the slower modes of ocean variation, allowing studies of the role of cloud feedbacks in coupling the atmosphere and ocean circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the processes that drive Arctic anomalous surface warming and sea ice loss during winter-season tropospheric energy flux events, synoptic periods of increased tropospheric energy flux convergence (Ftrop), using the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis. During an event, a poleward anomaly in Ftrop initially increases the sensible and latent energy of the Arctic troposphere; as the warm and moist troposphere loses heat, the anomalous energy source is balanced by a flux upward across the tropopause and a downward net surface flux. A new metric for the Arctic surface heating efficiency (Etrop) is defined, which measures the fraction of the energy source that reaches the surface. Composites of high-, medium-, and low-efficiency events help identify key physical factors, including the vertical structure of Ftrop and Arctic surface preconditioning. In high-efficiency events (Etrop ≥ 0.63), a bottom-heavy poleward Ftrop occurs in the presence of an anomalously warm and unstratified Arctic—a consequence of decreased sea ice—resulting in increased vertical mixing, enhanced near-surface warming and moistening, and further sea ice loss. Smaller Etrop, and thus weaker surface impacts, are found in events with anomalously large initial sea ice extent and more vertically uniform Ftrop. These differences in Etrop are manifested primarily through turbulent heat fluxes rather than downward longwave radiation. The frequency of high-efficiency events has increased from the period 1980–99 to the period 2000–19, contributing to Arctic surface warming and sea ice decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models, like any in silico numerical experiments, are affected by different types of bias. Uncertainty quantification remains a challenge in any climate detection and attribution analysis. A fundamental methodological question is to determine which statistical summaries, while bringing relevant signals, can be robust with respect to multimodel errors. In this paper, we propose a simple statistical framework that significantly improves signal detection in climate attribution studies. We show that the complex bias correction step can be entirely bypassed for models for which bias between the simulated and unobserved counterfactual worlds is the same as between the simulated and unobserved factual worlds. To illustrate our approach, we infer emergence times in precipitation from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives. The detected anthropogenic signal in yearly maxima of daily precipitation clearly emerges at the beginning of the twenty-first century. In addition, no CMIP model seems to outperform the others and a weighted linear combination of all improves the estimation of emergence times. Significance Statement: We show that the bias in multimodel global climate simulations can be efficiently handled when the appropriate metric is chosen. This metric leads to an easy-to-implement statistical procedure based on a checkable assumption. This allows us to demonstrate that optimal convex combinations of CMIP outputs can improve the signal strength in finding emergence times. Our data analysis procedure is applied to yearly maximum of precipitation from CMIP5 and CMIP6 databases. The attribution of the anthropogenic forcing clearly emerges in extreme precipitation at the beginning of the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of future West African monsoon (WAM) precipitation change in response to increasing greenhouse gases are uncertain, and an improved understanding of the drivers of WAM precipitation change is needed to help aid model development and better inform adaptation policies in the region. This paper addresses one of those drivers, the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 (i.e., the impact of increased CO2 in the absence of SST warming and changes in plant physiology). An atmosphere-only model is used to examine both the equilibrium response and the evolution of the change over the days following the instantaneous CO2 increase. In response to the direct radiative effect, WAM precipitation increases due to a weakening of the shallow meridional circulation over North Africa, advecting less dry air into the convective column associated with the monsoon. Changes in the shallow circulation are associated with atmospheric and surface warming patterns over North Africa. A large-scale atmospheric warming pattern, whereby North Africa warms more than the monsoon region, leads to a northward shift in the Saharan heat low. In response to increased precipitation in the Sahel, local soil moisture feedbacks play a key role in determining the low-level circulation change and the location of the intertropical discontinuity. The large-scale warming patterns over North Africa result from differing levels of constraint applied by convective quasi-equilibrium. While this constraint acts strongly in the equatorial WAM region, preventing the region from warming in response to the direct radiative effect, North Africa is not strongly constrained and is therefore able to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold winters over Eurasia often coincide with warm winters in the Arctic, which has become known as the "warm Arctic–cold Eurasia" pattern. The extent to which this observed correlation is indicative of a causal response to sea ice loss is debated. Here, using large multimodel ensembles of coordinated experiments, we find that the Eurasian temperature response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak compared to internal variability and is not robust across climate models. We show that Eurasian cooling is driven by tropospheric and stratospheric circulation changes in response to sea ice loss but is counteracted by tropospheric thermodynamical warming, as the local warming induced by sea ice loss spreads into the midlatitudes by eddy advection. Although opposing effects of thermodynamical warming and dynamical cooling are found robustly across different models or different sea ice perturbations, their net effect varies in sign and magnitude across the models, resulting in diverse model temperature responses over Eurasia. The contributions from both tropospheric dynamics and thermodynamics show substantial intermodel spread. Although some of this spread in the Eurasian winter temperature response to sea ice loss may stem from model uncertainty, even with several hundred ensemble members, it is challenging to isolate model differences in the forced response from internal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wind-driven circulation is an important driver of upwelling in the California Current System, a key factor in maintaining a productive ecosystem. In summer, the North Pacific high (NPH) dominates the atmospheric circulation, including the nearshore winds. The impact of the NPH on the surface winds along the North American west coast during summer is examined using the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) large ensemble of simulations. The strength, latitude, and longitude of the sea level pressure (SLP) and subsidence at 500 hPa are used to assess the NPH and its variability. While both the surface high pressure cell and subsidence are related to the interannual variability of the surface winds over the North Pacific, the strength of subsidence has a much larger effect on the coastal winds than the variability in SLP. Based on the mean of the 40 CESM simulations, future changes in upwelling also more strongly coincide with changes in subsidence than in SLP. Subsidence and southward upwelling-favorable winds increase off the Canadian coast, with the reverse occurring off the U.S. West Coast, by the end of the twenty-first century. In particular, the intermember correlation between the changes in the nearshore surface winds and the 500-hPa pressure vertical velocity reaches 0.75 and 0.87 in the southern and northern portions of the northeast Pacific, respectively. The effect of the subsidence on upwelling winds in the future is confirmed by the CESM2 large ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing degradation of the Congolese rain forest is documented, but the individual roles of climate change and deforestation are unknown. A modified version of the Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudios Climaticos (CPTEC) potential vegetation model (PVM) forced by ERA5 reanalysis data translates decadal climate states (1980–2020) into natural vegetation distributions to identify regions where climate change could have played a role in changing vegetation. These areas are then examined to understand how and why these climate changes could affect the tropical rain forest coverage. Between the 1980s and the 2010s, the climate over the northern and southern Congo basin rain forest margins becomes less able to support the forest. In the north, strong, negative meridional moisture gradients in boreal winter separate warm, dry conditions to the north from the cooler, moist rain forest. By the 2010s greenhouse gas warming deepens the low-level trough in the north, enhancing the inflow of drier subtropical air. A similar drying response occurs over the southern margin during austral winter when the low-level westerly transport of Atlantic moisture decreases in association with warming and reduced low-level heights over the equatorial Congo basin. In the interior, climate conditions also become less favorable along major transportation routes by the 2010s due to human intervention/deforestation. Along coastal Angola, the climate becomes more favorable for tropical forest vegetation when coastal upwelling weakens and SSTs warm in response to changes in the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. These results have implications for the future as global warming continues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, the Arctic region has warmed faster than the Antarctic, which is referred to as asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming. The new generation of model simulations from the CMIP6 offers an opportunity to identify the major factors contributing to the asymmetric warming and its intermodel spread. In this study, the preindustrial and abrupt-4 × CO2 experiments from 18 CMIP6 models are examined to extract the asymmetric warming and its intermodel spread. A climate feedback-response analysis method is applied to reveal the contributions of external and internal feedback processes to the asymmetric warming and its intermodel spread, by decomposing total warming into the partial temperature changes caused by individual factors. It is found that a seasonal energy transfer mechanism (SETM) dominates in both polar warmings. The direct consequence of the sea ice declining in response to the anthropogenic forcing is an increase in the effective heat capacity of the ocean surface layer. Such an increase in the effective heat capacity temporally withholds most of the extra solar energy absorbed during summer and then releases it during winter, contributing to stronger warming in winter. However, the background oceanic circulation in the Southern Ocean, namely, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, continually transports energy equatorward, resulting in a suppressed SETM and surface warming in the Antarctic. The key factor that accounts for intermodel spread in the asymmetric warming is the difference in their strengths of SETM. The poleward atmospheric transport and water vapor feedback also contribute to the intermodel spread. Significance Statement: The asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming, as a response to the increase in CO2, can regulate global atmospheric and oceanic circulations via meridional temperature gradient. Previous studies have all ascribed the key role of the ocean in the asymmetric warming over the two poles with a lack of comprehensive understanding of the roles of other feedback processes. This study emphasizes that oceanic circulation is the root of the asymmetric warming via suppressing sea ice retreat and the associated SETM in the Antarctic, instead of increasing ocean heat uptake and equatorward transport only. For the intermodel spread in the asymmetric warming over two poles, the differences in the strength of all processes involving the SETM among models are the prominent issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]