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Because Antarctic surface melt is mostly driven by local processes, its simulation necessitates high‐resolution regional climate models (RCMs). However, the current horizontal resolution of RCMs (≈25–30 km) is inadequate for capturing small‐scale melt processes. To address this limitation, we present SUPREME (SUPer‐REsolution‐based Melt Estimation over Antarctica), a deep learning method to downscale surface melt to 5.5 km resolution using a physically‐informed super‐resolution model. The physical information integrated into the model originates from observations tied to surface melt, specifically remote sensing‐derived albedo and elevation. These remote sensing data, in addition to a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) run at 27 km resolution, account for the diverse drivers of surface melt across Antarctica, facilitating effective generalization beyond the training region of the Antarctic Peninsula. A comparison of SUPREME with a dynamically downscaled RACMO run at 5.5 km over the Antarctic Peninsula shows high accuracy, with average yearly RMSE and bias of 5.5 mm w.e. yr−1 and 4.5 mm w.e. yr−1, respectively. Validation at five automatic weather stations reveals SUPREME's marked improvement with substantially lower average RMSE (81 mm w.e.) compared to RACMO 27 km (129 mm w.e.). Beyond the training region, SUPREME aligns more closely with remote sensing products associated with surface melt than super‐resolution models lacking physical constraints. While further validation of SUPREME is needed, our study highlights the potential of super‐resolution techniques with physical constraints for high‐resolution surface melt monitoring in Antarctica, providing insights into the impacts of localized melting on processes affecting ice shelf integrity such as hydrofracturing. Plain Language Summary: To improve surface melt monitoring in Antarctica, high‐resolution climate models are essential. Existing models, like the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), do not have a fine enough spatial resolution to capture small‐scale melt processes. To overcome this, we introduce SUPREME (SUPer‐REsolution‐based Melt Estimation over Antarctica), a method that refines surface melt data to a higher resolution of 5.5 km using an advanced super‐resolution model. We enhance this model with physical information derived from observations directly related to surface melt, specifically using albedo and elevation data from remote sensing. By incorporating these observations, along with RACMO data at 27 km resolution, we account for the various triggers of surface melt across Antarctica. SUPREME accurately predicts high‐resolution surface melt beyond the training region of the Antarctic Peninsula, showing promising results compared to existing melt observations. Further validation is needed, but this approach, combining super‐resolution techniques and remote sensing data, holds potential for accurate surface melt monitoring in Antarctica. This may advance our understanding of the impacts of localized features on processes affecting ice shelf integrity such as meltwater‐induced hydrofracturing. Key Points: Our method downscales Antarctic surface melt from a regional climate model, employing a physically‐informed super‐resolution architectureThe super‐resolution model relies on physical information derived from remote sensing data, specifically surface albedo and elevationIncorporating physical information boosts model generalization, enabling accurate high‐resolution surface melt beyond the training region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially accelerating discharge. Surface processes are essential to quantify AIS mass change, but remain poorly represented in climate models typically running at 25-100 km resolution. Here we present SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for the contemporary climate (1979-2021) and low, moderate and high-end warming scenarios until 2100. We show that statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), which is sufficient to reconcile modelled and satellite mass change. Furthermore, melt strongly increases (46%), notably near the grounding line, in better agreement with in-situ and satellite records. The melt increase persists by 2100 in all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated. High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geoscientific models are facing increasing challenges to exploit growing datasets coming from remote sensing. Universal differential equations (UDEs), aided by differentiable programming, provide a new scientific modelling paradigm enabling both complex functional inversions to potentially discover new physical laws and data assimilation from heterogeneous and sparse observations. We demonstrate an application of UDEs as a proof of concept to learn the creep component of ice flow, i.e. a nonlinear diffusivity differential equation, of a glacier evolution model. By combining a mechanistic model based on a two-dimensional shallow-ice approximation partial differential equation with an embedded neural network, i.e. a UDE, we can learn parts of an equation as nonlinear functions that then can be translated into mathematical expressions. We implemented this modelling framework as ODINN.jl, a package in the Julia programming language, providing high performance, source-to-source automatic differentiation (AD) and seamless integration with tools and global datasets from the Open Global Glacier Model in Python. We demonstrate this concept for 17 different glaciers around the world, for which we successfully recover a prescribed artificial law describing ice creep variability by solving ∼ 500 000 ordinary differential equations in parallel. Furthermore, we investigate which are the best tools in the scientific machine learning ecosystem in Julia to differentiate and optimize large nonlinear diffusivity UDEs. This study represents a proof of concept for a new modelling framework aiming at discovering empirical laws for large-scale glacier processes, such as the variability in ice creep and basal sliding for ice flow, and new hybrid surface mass balance models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the existence of perennial firn aquifers in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been confirmed by in situ observations. Previous studies have suggested that these subsurface aquifers, together with meltwater ponds at the surface, provide a reservoir of liquid water to feed propagating fractures, promoting hydrofracture-driven ice-shelf disintegration. This study maps perennial firn aquifers in the AP from space using C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from ESA's Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. With these observations, we detect firn aquifers at 1 km × 1 km resolution, for the period 2017 to 2020. Existing methods, that use S1 data and rely on a backscatter intensity difference threshold approach, are prone to misclassify late-melt events as aquifers, when applied to the AP. Therefore, we have developed and evaluated a new approach that is better suited to the Antarctic environment. The new method exploits the characteristic, gradual backscatter increase during the (partial) refreezing of the liquid water in the firn layer after the peak of the melt season. Most firn aquifers are detected in the north and northwest of the AP, as well as on the Wilkins and George VI ice shelves. Aquifer locations detected with the present methodology agree with in situ observations and with model simulations of firn water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the existence of perennial firn aquifers in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been confirmed by in situ observations. Previous studies have suggested that these subsurface aquifers, together with meltwater ponds at the surface, provide a reservoir of liquid water to feed propagating fractures, promoting hydrofracture-driven ice-shelf disintegration. This study maps perennial firn aquifers in the AP from space using C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from ESA's Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. With these observations, we detect firn aquifers at 1 km x 1 km resolution, for the period 2017 to 2020. Existing methods, that use S1 data and rely on a backscatter intensity difference threshold approach, are prone to misclassify late-melt events as aquifers, when applied to the AP. Therefore, we have developed and evaluated a new approach that is better suited to the Antarctic environment. The new method exploits the characteristic, gradual backscatter increase during the (partial) refreezing of the liquid water in the firn layer after the peak of the melt season. Most firn aquifers are detected in the north and northwest of the AP, as well as on the Wilkins and George VI ice shelves. Aquifer locations detected with the present methodology agree with in situ observations and with model simulations of firn water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea embayments of Antarctica causes ice shelves in the region to melt from below, potentially putting their stability at risk. Earlier studies have shown how digital elevation models can be used to obtain ice shelf basal melt rates at a high spatial resolution. However, there has been limited availability of high-resolution elevation data, a gap the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) has filled. In this study we use a novel combination of REMA and CryoSat-2 elevation data to obtain high-resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf in a Lagrangian framework, at a 50 m spatial posting on a 3-yearly temporal resolution. We present a novel method: Basal melt rates Using REMA and Google Earth Engine (BURGEE). The high resolution of BURGEE is supported through a sensitivity study of the Lagrangian displacement. The high-resolution basal melt rates show a good agreement with an earlier basal melt product based on CryoSat-2. Both products show a wide melt channel extending from the grounding line to the ice front, but our high-resolution product indicates that the pathway and spatial variability of this channel is influenced by a pinning point on the ice shelf. This result emphasizes the importance of high-resolution basal melt rates to expand our understanding of channel formation and melt patterns. BURGEE can be expanded to a pan-Antarctic study of high-resolution basal melt rates. This will provide a better picture of the (in)stability of Antarctic ice shelves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of highly sensitive bioanalytical techniques, the volume of samples necessary for accurate analysis has reduced. Microsampling, the process of obtaining small amounts of blood, has thus gained popularity as it offers minimal‐invasiveness, reduced logistical costs and biohazard risks while simultaneously showing increased sample stability and a potential for the decentralization of the approach and at‐home self‐sampling. Although the benefits of microsampling have been recognised, its adoption in clinical practice has been slow. Several microsampling technologies and devices are currently available and employed in research studies for various biomedical applications. This review provides an overview of the state‐of‐the‐art in microsampling technology with a focus on the latest developments and advancements in the field of microsampling. Research published in the year 2022, including studies (i) developing strategies for the quantitation of analytes in microsamples and (ii) bridging and comparing the interchangeability between matrices and choice of technology for a given application, is reviewed to assess the advantages, challenges and limitations of the current state of microsampling. Successful implementation of microsampling in routine clinical care requires continued efforts for standardization and harmonization. Microsampling has been shown to facilitate data‐rich studies and a patient‐centric approach to healthcare and is foreseen to play a central role in the future digital revolution of healthcare through continuous monitoring to improve the quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geoscientific models are facing increasing challenges to exploit growing datasets coming from remote sensing. Universal Differential Equations (UDEs), aided by differentiable programming, provide a new scientific modelling paradigm enabling both complex functional inversions to potentially discover new physical laws and data assimilation from heterogeneous and sparse observations. We demonstrate an application of UDEs as a proof of concept to learn the creep component of ice flow, i.e. a nonlinear diffusivity differential equation, of a glacier evolution model. By combining a mechanistic model based on a 2D Shallow Ice Approximation Partial Differential Equation with an embedded neural network, i.e. a UDE, we can learn parts of an equation as nonlinear functions that then can be translated into mathematical expressions. We implemented this modelling framework as ODINN.jl, a package in the Julia programming language, providing high performance, source-to- source automatic differentiation (AD) and seamless integration with tools and global datasets from the Open Global Glacier Model in Python. We demonstrate this concept for 17 different glaciers around the world, for which we successfully recover a prescribed artificial law describing ice creep variability by solving ~500,000 Ordinary Differential Equations in parallel. Furthermore, we investigate which are the best tools in the scientific machine learning ecosystem in Julia to differentiate and optimize large nonlinear diffusivity UDEs. This study represents a proof of concept for a new modelling framework aiming at discovering empirical laws for large-scale glacier processes, such as the variability of ice creep and basal sliding for ice flow, and new hybrid surface mass balance models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intrusion of warm circumpolar deep water causes ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellinghausen Sea Embayments of Antarctica to melt from below, thereby potentially putting their stability at risk. Earlier studies have shown how digital elevation models can be used to obtain high-resolution ice shelf basal melt rates. However, there has been limited availability of high-resolution elevation data, a gap the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) has filled. In this study we use a novel combination of REMA and CryoSat-2 elevation data to obtain high-resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf in a Lagrangian framework, at a 50m spatial resolution on a 3-yearly temporal resolution. We present a novel Basal melt rates Using REMA and Google Earth Engine (BURGEE) method, which high resolution is supported through a sensitivity study assuming that the quality of the Lagrangian displacement is the main error source. The high-resolution basal melt rates show a good agreement with an earlier 500-m resolution basal melt product based on CryoSat-2, with a wide melt channel extending from the grounding line to the ice shelf front. Our high-resolution product indicates that the pathway and spatial variability of the main channel is influenced by a pinning point on the ice shelf. Additionally, it reveals a narrower coastal channel running along the western margin, which was not identified in the lower-resolution melt product, but does show up in a recent ocean modeling study. This emphasizes the importance of high-resolution basal melt rates to expand our understanding of channel formation and melt patterns. BURGEE can be expanded to a Pan-Antarctic study of high-resolution basal melt rates. This will provide a better picture of the (in)stability of Antarctic ice shelves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the existence of firn aquifers in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been confirmed by in-situ observations. Given their importance for understanding the hydrology of the Antarctic ice sheet, a more spatially comprehensive assessment of AP firn aquifers is desirable. The purpose of this study is to map firn aquifers in the AP from space using C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from ESA's Sentinel-1 mission. These observations enable the detection of firn aquifers at 1 x 1 km² resolution. The method presented here is based on quantifying the characteristic, gradual backscatter increase during the (partial) refreezing of the liquid water in the firn layer after the peak melt season. When applied to the available time series, it detects perennial aquifers (existing year-round) for the period 2017 to 2020, as well as seasonal aquifers which do not persist through winter. We acknowledge that the backscatter signature in any given year is indistinguishable for seasonal and perennial aquifers. We detect seasonal firn aquifers in the north and northwest of the AP, as well as on the Wilkins and George VI ice shelves. Only in the north and northwest of the AP, aquifers are detected each year in the observation period, here taken as a proxy for perennial firn aquifers. Both distributions agree with model simulations. Further in situ and modelling studies and longer time series of satellite observations are needed to validate the results of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years a vast amount of glacier surface velocity data from satellite imagery has emerged based on correlation between repeat images. Thereby, much emphasis has been put on the fast processing of large data volumes and products with complete spatial coverage. The metadata of such measurements are often highly simplified when the measurement precision is lumped into a single number for the whole dataset, although the error budget of image matching is in reality neither isotropic nor constant over the whole velocity field. The spread of the correlation peak of individual image offset measurements is dependent on the image structure and the non-uniform flow of the ice and is used here to extract a proxy for measurement uncertainty. A quantification of estimation error or dispersion for each individual velocity measurement can be important for the inversion of, for instance, rheology, ice thickness and/or bedrock friction. Errors in the velocity data can propagate into derived results in a complex and exaggerating way, making the outcomes very sensitive to velocity noise and outliers. Here, we present a computationally fast method to estimate the matching precision of individual displacement measurements from repeat imaging data, focusing on satellite data. The approach is based upon Gaussian fitting directly on the correlation peak and is formulated as a linear least-squares estimation, making its implementation into current pipelines straightforward. The methodology is demonstrated for Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ), Greenland, a glacier with regions of strong shear flow and with clearly oriented crevasses, and Malaspina Glacier, Alaska. Directionality within an image seems to be the dominant factor influencing the correlation dispersion. In our cases these are crevasses and moraine bands, while a relation to differential flow, such as shear, is less pronounced on the correlation spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Antarctica, Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical time series exhibit non‐linear signals over a wide range of temporal scales. To explain these non‐linearities, a number of hypotheses have been proposed, among them the short‐term rapid solid Earth response to contemporaneous ice mass change. Here we use GPS vertical time series to reveal the solid Earth response to variations in surface mass balance (SMB) in the Southern Antarctic Peninsula (SAP). At four locations in the SAP we show that interannual variations of SMB anomalies cause measurable elastic deformation. We use regional climate model SMB products to calculate the induced displacement assuming a perfectly elastic Earth. Our results show a reduction of the misfit when fitting a linear trend to GPS time series corrected for the elastic response to SMB variations. Our results imply that, for a better understanding of the glacial isostatic adjustment signal in Antarctica, SMB variability must be considered. Plain Language Summary: The Global Positioning System (GPS) allows us to measure the changing shape of the Earth's surface with high accuracy. These changes reflect multiple processes operating both within the Earth and at the surface. Using continuously recording GPS instruments in the Antarctic Peninsula, we study the response of the solid Earth to seasonal and annual variations in snow and ice accumulation over the past decade. We show that such loading triggers a measurable response that varies between years, complicating efforts to calculate the long‐term Earth response to past ice sheet change. We discuss the importance of our findings for understanding feedbacks between the solid Earth and the Antarctic ice sheet. Key Points: Global Positioning System time series of vertical deformation in the Southern Antarctic Peninsula show transient signalsModeled elastic deformation due to surface mass balance (SMB) variation can largely explain these signalsConsidering SMB elastic deformation improves estimates of linear vertical velocities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Icelandic glaciers have been losing mass since the Little Ice Age in the mid‐to‐late 1800s, with higher mass loss rates in the early 21st century, followed by a slowdown since 2011. As of yet, it remains unclear whether this mass loss slowdown will persist in the future. By reconstructing the contemporary (1958–2019) surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers, we show that the post‐2011 mass loss slowdown coincides with the development of the Blue Blob, an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland. This regional cooling signal mitigates atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, in turn decreasing glacier mass loss through reduced meltwater runoff. In a future high‐end warming scenario, North Atlantic cooling is projected to mitigate mass loss of Icelandic glaciers until the mid‐2050s. High mass loss rates resume thereafter as the regional cooling signal weakens. Plain Language Summary: Icelandic glaciers are currently losing mass, but with a recent slowdown in the last decade. We show that this slowdown coincides with the development of an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland, called Blue Blob. Cooling in the Blue Blob has been mitigating atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, reducing glacier melt. In a future warmer climate, North Atlantic cooling is projected to persist until the mid‐2050s, further slowing down mass loss of Icelandic glaciers. High mass loss resumes thereafter as the regional cooling in the Blue Blob weakens. Key Points: We project daily surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers at 500 m spatial resolution under a high‐end warming scenario until 2100We correlate the post‐2011 glacier mass loss slowdown with a local cooling in the North Atlantic OceanWe predict that local North Atlantic cooling will continue mitigating Icelandic glaciers mass loss until the mid‐2050s [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meltwater from Himalayan glaciers sustains the flow of rivers such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra on which over half a billion people depend for day-to-day needs. Upstream areas are likely to be affected substantially by climate change, and changes in the magnitude and timing of meltwater supply are expected to occur in coming decades. About 10 % of the Himalayan glacier population terminates into proglacial lakes, and such lake-terminating glaciers are known to exhibit higher-than-average total mass losses. However, relatively little is known about the mechanisms driving exacerbated ice loss from lake-terminating glaciers in the Himalaya. Here we examine a composite (2017–2019) glacier surface velocity dataset, derived from Sentinel 2 imagery, covering central and eastern Himalayan glaciers larger than 3 km 2. We find that centre flow line velocities of lake-terminating glaciers (N = 70; umedian : 18.83 m yr -1 ; IQR – interquartile range – uncertainty estimate: 18.55–19.06 m yr -1) are on average more than double those of land-terminating glaciers (N = 249; umedian : 8.24 m yr -1 ; IQR uncertainty estimate: 8.17–8.35 m yr -1) and show substantially more heterogeneity than land-terminating glaciers around glacier termini. We attribute this large heterogeneity to the varying influence of lakes on glacier dynamics, resulting in differential rates of dynamic thinning, which causes about half of the lake-terminating glacier population to accelerate towards the glacier termini. Numerical ice-flow model experiments show that changes in the force balance at the glacier termini are likely to play a key role in accelerating the glacier flow at the front, with variations in basal friction only being of modest importance. The expansion of current glacial lakes and the formation of new meltwater bodies will influence the dynamics of an increasing number of Himalayan glaciers in the future, and these factors should be carefully considered in regional projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce an algorithm (Watta) which automatically calculates supraglacial lake bathymetry and detects potential ice layers along tracks of the ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter. Watta uses photon heights estimated by the ICESat-2 ATL03 product and extracts supraglacial lake surface, bottom, and depth corrected for refraction and (sub-)surface ice cover in addition to producing surface heights at the native resolution of the ATL03 photon cloud. These measurements are used to constrain empirical estimates of lake depth from satellite imagery, which were thus far dependent on sparse sets of in situ measurements for calibration. Imagery sources include Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2, and high-resolution Planet Labs PlanetScope and SkySat data, used here for the first time to calculate supraglacial lake depths. The Watta algorithm was developed and tested using a set of 46 lakes near Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn) glacier in western Greenland, and we use multiple imagery sources (available for 45 of these lakes) to assess the use of the red vs. green band to extrapolate depths along a profile to full lake volumes. We use Watta-derived estimates in conjunction with high-resolution imagery from both satellite-based sources (tasked over the season) and nearly simultaneous Operation IceBridge CAMBOT (Continuous Airborne Mapping By Optical Translator) imagery (on a single airborne flight) for a focused study of the drainage of a single lake over the 2019 melt season. Our results suggest that the use of multiple imagery sources (both publicly available and commercial), in combination with altimetry-based depths, can move towards capturing the evolution of supraglacial hydrology at improved spatial and temporal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aerodynamic roughness of heat, moisture, and momentum of a natural surface are important parameters in atmospheric models, as they co-determine the intensity of turbulent transfer between the atmosphere and the surface. Unfortunately this parameter is often poorly known, especially in remote areas where neither high-resolution elevation models nor eddy-covariance measurements are available. In this study we adapt a bulk drag partitioning model to estimate the aerodynamic roughness length (z0m) such that it can be applied to 1D (i.e. unidirectional) elevation profiles, typically measured by laser altimeters. We apply the model to a rough ice surface on the K-transect (west Greenland Ice Sheet) using UAV photogrammetry, and we evaluate the modelled roughness against in situ eddy-covariance observations. We then present a method to estimate the topography at 1 m horizontal resolution using the ICESat-2 satellite laser altimeter, and we demonstrate the high precision of the satellite elevation profiles against UAV photogrammetry. The currently available satellite profiles are used to map the aerodynamic roughness during different time periods along the K-transect, that is compared to an extensive dataset of in situ observations. We find a considerable spatio-temporal variability in z0m , ranging between 10-4 m for a smooth snow surface and 10-1 m for rough crevassed areas, which confirms the need to incorporate a variable aerodynamic roughness in atmospheric models over ice sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface melting occurs during summer on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, but the volume of stored surface meltwater has been difficult to quantify due to a lack of accurate depth estimates. NASA's ICESat‐2 laser altimeter brings a new capability: photons penetrate water and are reflected from both the water and the underlying ice; the difference provides a depth estimate. ICESat‐2 sampled Amery Ice Shelf on January 2, 2019 and showed double returns from surface depressions, indicating meltwater. For four melt features, we compared depth estimates from eight algorithms: six based on ICESat‐2 and two from coincident Landsat‐8 and Sentinel‐2 imagery. All algorithms successfully identified surface water at the same locations. Algorithms based on ICESat‐2 produced the most accurate depths; the image‐based algorithms underestimated depths (by 30%–70%). This implies that ICESat‐2 depths can be used to tune image‐based algorithms, moving us closer to quantifying stored meltwater volumes across Antarctica and Greenland. Plain Language Summary: Summer surface melting on Antarctica's ice shelves is a small component of overall ice sheet mass loss but can be important for individual ice shelves and may increase as the climate warms. However, the volume of meltwater has been difficult to monitor because depth estimates are challenging. NASA's ICESat‐2 laser altimetry mission brings a new capability to this problem. ICESat‐2 532 nm photons (green light) are able to pass through water and reflect from both the water surface and the underlying ice surface; the difference in elevation provides meltwater depth estimates. In this pilot study, we compared depths from eight algorithms (six ICESat‐2 and two image based) over four Amery Ice Shelf meltwater lakes for an ICESat‐2 pass in early January 2019. The ICESat‐2 algorithms all produced more reliable depth estimates, and the image‐based algorithms underestimated the depths. This implies that ICESat‐2 water depths can be used to tune image‐based depth retrieval algorithms, enabling improved performance and allowing us to estimate more accurately how much surface melt is stored in melt ponds on the ice sheets each summer. Key Points: ICESat‐2 photons penetrate surface melt lakes and reflect from both the water surface and the underlying ice, providing depth estimatesWe compared depths from eight algorithms (six ICESat‐2 and two image‐based) for four lakes present on Amery Ice Shelf in January 2019Depths from ICESat‐2 were more accurate than from imagery (30%–70% too low); merging these data will improve estimates ice‐sheet wide [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) using a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ∼11 km) to dynamically downscale the climate of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; ∼111 km). After further statistical downscaling to 1 km spatial resolution, evaluation using in situ SMB measurements and remotely sensed GrIS mass change shows good agreement. Comparison with an ensemble of previously conducted RACMO2 simulations forced by climate reanalysis demonstrates that the current product realistically represents the long-term average and variability of individual SMB components and captures the recent increase in meltwater runoff that accelerated GrIS mass loss. This means that, for the first time, climate forcing from an Earth system model (CESM2), which assimilates no observations, can be used without additional corrections to reconstruct the historical GrIS SMB and its recent decline that initiated mass loss in the 1990s. This paves the way for attribution studies of future GrIS mass loss projections and contribution to sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface mass balance (SMB) provides mass input to the surface of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and therefore comprises an important control on ice sheet mass balance and resulting contribution to global sea level change. As ice sheet SMB varies highly across multiple scales of space (meters to hundreds of kilometers) and time (hourly to decadal), it is notoriously challenging to observe and represent in models. In addition, SMB consists of multiple components, all of which depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface, large‐scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions, and ice sheet topography. In this review, we present the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge and recent advances in ice sheet SMB observations and models, highlight current shortcomings, and propose future directions. Novel observational methods allow mapping SMB across larger areas, longer time periods, and/or at very high (subdaily) temporal frequency. As a recent observational breakthrough, cosmic ray counters provide direct estimates of SMB, circumventing the need for accurate snow density observations upon which many other techniques rely. Regional atmospheric climate models have drastically improved their simulation of ice sheet SMB in the last decade, thanks to the inclusion or improved representation of essential processes (e.g., clouds, blowing snow, and snow albedo), and by enhancing horizontal resolution (5–30 km). Future modeling efforts are required in improving Earth system models to match regional atmospheric climate model performance in simulating ice sheet SMB, and in reinforcing the efforts in developing statistical and dynamic downscaling to represent smaller‐scale SMB processes. Plain Language Summary: Ice sheets, the largest class of glaciers, contain the majority of ice on Earth. The amount of ice contained in ice sheets changes constantly with the addition of new snow and ice, and melting taking place at the surface, base, and terminus of ice sheets. The balance between these inputs and outputs is known as the "mass balance." Processes affecting the addition and removal of snow on top of the ice sheet are termed the "surface mass balance" and include rainfall, moisture evaporation, snow‐transporting winds, and melting due to temperature changes. Scientists can now monitor these processes with tools on‐site, such as automated weather stations, Global Positioning Systems, and sensors that record high‐energy radiation (cosmic rays) originating outside the Earth's atmosphere. Several methods are also available where Earth‐orbiting satellites measure how ice is changing. Data collected in these ways have revealed how the surface mass balance varies over time and space. A better understanding of these processes is critical to predicting future behavior of ice sheets and their effect on sea level. Improvements to regional‐scale models in the past decade have allowed good simulations of surface mass balance, and the next step is to build models that work at a global scale. Key Points: Emerging (remote) observational techniques provide enhanced insights in spatial and temporal variability of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB)Regional climate models can be used to assess ice sheet SMB, although deficiencies remain in representing subgrid processesIn the near future, Earth System Models can be used to assess internal variability, forced change, and positive feedbacks on ice sheet SMB [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid changes in thickness and velocity have been observed at many marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, impacting the volume of ice they export, or discharge, from the ice sheet. While annual estimates of ice-sheet-wide discharge have been previously derived, higher-resolution records are required to fully constrain the temporal response of these glaciers to various climatic and mechanical drivers that vary in sub-annual scales. Here we sample outlet glaciers wider than 1 km (N=230) to derive the first continuous, ice-sheet-wide record of total ice sheet discharge for the 2000–2016 period, resolving a seasonal variability of 6 %. The amplitude of seasonality varies spatially across the ice sheet from 5 % in the southeastern region to 9 % in the northwest region. We analyze seasonal to annual variability in the discharge time series with respect to both modeled meltwater runoff, obtained from RACMO2.3p2, and glacier front position changes over the same period. We find that year-to-year changes in total ice sheet discharge are related to annual front changes (r2=0.59 , p=10-4) and that the annual magnitude of discharge is closely related to cumulative front position changes (r2=0.79), which show a net retreat of >400 km, or an average retreat of >2 km, at each surveyed glacier. Neither maximum seasonal runoff or annual runoff totals are correlated to annual discharge, which suggests that larger annual quantities of runoff do not relate to increased annual discharge. Discharge and runoff, however, follow similar patterns of seasonal variability with near-coincident periods of acceleration and seasonal maxima. These results suggest that changes in glacier front position drive secular trends in discharge, whereas the impact of runoff is likely limited to the summer months when observed seasonal variations are substantially controlled by the timing of meltwater input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), surface mass balance (SMB) output of the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model v. 2 (RACMO2), and ice discharge estimates to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal and spatial scales. We find that the mean rate of mass variations in Greenland observed by GRACE was between -277 and -269 Gt yr-1 in 2003-2012. This estimate is consistent with the sum (i.e., -304±126 Gt yr-1) of individual contributions - surface mass balance (SMB, 216±122 Gt yr-1) and ice discharge (520±31 Gt yr-1) - and with previous studies. We further identify a seasonal mass anomaly throughout the GRACE record that peaks in July at 80-120 Gt and which we interpret to be due to a combination of englacial and subglacial water storage generated by summer surface melting. The robustness of this estimate is demonstrated by using both different GRACE-based solutions and different meltwater runoff estimates (namely, RACMO2.3, SNOWPACK, and MAR3.9). Meltwater storage in the ice sheet occurs primarily due to storage in the high-accumulation regions of the southeast and northwest parts of Greenland. Analysis of seasonal variations in outlet glacier discharge shows that the contribution of ice discharge to the observed signal is minor (at the level of only a few gigatonnes) and does not explain the seasonal differences between the total mass and SMB signals. With the improved quantification of meltwater storage at the seasonal scale, we highlight its importance for understanding glaciohydrological processes and their contributions to the ice sheet mass variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago comprises multiple small glaciers and ice caps, mostly concentrated on Ellesmere and Baffin Islands in the northern (NCAA, Northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago) and southern parts (SCAA, Southern Canadian Arctic Archipelago) of the archipelago, respectively. Because these glaciers are small and show complex geometries, current regional climate models, using 5‐ to 20‐km horizontal resolution, do not properly resolve surface mass balance patterns. Here we present a 58‐year (1958–2015) reconstruction of daily surface mass balance of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, statistically downscaled to 1 km from the output of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. By correcting for biases in elevation and ice albedo, the downscaling method significantly improves runoff estimates over narrow outlet glaciers and isolated ice fields. Since the last two decades, NCAA and SCAA glaciers have experienced warmer conditions (+1.1°C) resulting in continued mass loss of 28.2 ± 11.5 and 22.0 ± 4.5 Gt/year, respectively, more than doubling (11.9 Gt/year) and doubling (11.9 Gt/year) the pre‐1996 average. While the interior of NCAA ice caps can still buffer most of the additional melt, the lack of a perennial firn area over low‐lying SCAA glaciers has caused uninterrupted mass loss since the 1980s. In the absence of significant refreezing capacity, this indicates inevitable disappearance of these highly sensitive glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229 Gt with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution (~5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Although much progress has been made in consistently modeling the ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial cycle, as well as the induced bedrock deformation caused by these load changes, forward models of GIA remain ambiguous due to the lack of observational constraints on the ice sheet's past extent and thickness and mantle rheology beneath the continent. As an alternative to forward-modeling GIA, we estimate GIA from multiple spacegeodetic observations: Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), Envisat/ICESat and Global Positioning System (GPS). Making use of the different sensitivities of the respective satellite observations to current and past surface-mass (ice mass) change and solid Earth processes, we estimate GIA based on viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing. We calculate and distribute the viscoelastic response functions according to estimates of the variability of lithosphere thickness and mantle viscosity in Antarctica. We compare our GIA estimate with published GIA corrections and evaluate its impact in determining the ice-mass balance in Antarctica from GRACE and satellite altimetry. Particular focus is applied to the Amundsen Sea Sector in West Antarctica, where uplift rates of several centimetres per year have been measured by GPS. We show that most of this uplift is caused by the rapid viscoelastic response to recent ice-load changes, enabled by the presence of a low-viscosity upper mantle in West Antarctica. This paper presents the second and final contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study, REGINA(www.regina-science.eu). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) contain ~14% of the world's glacier and ice-cap area. Sparse in-situ measurements indicate that interannual variability in glacier surface mass balance in this region is driven primarily by variations in summer melt, and that the annual surface mass balance of four index glaciers has become increasingly negative since 2007. Here, we use a 16-a record of satellite-derived mean summer (June–August) land surface temperatures (LST) from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer to investigate large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the duration and intensity of summer melt across glaciated surfaces in the QEI from 2000 to 2015. During this period, QEI mean summer glacier surface temperatures increased at an average rate of 0.06 ± 0.04°C a−1, for a total of nearly 1°C. Most of this increase occurred between 2005 and 2012, when mean summer near-surface (2 m) and upper-air (700 hPa) temperatures were 1.0–1.2°C higher than the 1948–2015 mean. There is a strong correlation between the glacier LST and 700 hPa air temperature records (r> 0.8). The period 2005–12, when mean summer LSTs were anomalously high, was likely the warmest period in the region since at least 1948. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002-2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958-1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr-1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-1990s was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990s, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60% of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small (<3%) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from lowlying (<2000ma.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater from occurring, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991-2015 average annual mass loss of ~0.47±0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations over the past 2 decades show substantial ice loss associated with the speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use a regional three-dimensional outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) located in western Greenland. Our approach is to model and understand the recent behaviour of JI with a physical process-based model. Using atmospheric forcing and an ocean parametrization we tune our model to reproduce observed frontal changes of JI during 1990-2014. In our simulations, most of the JI retreat during 1990-2014 is driven by the ocean parametrization used and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largely governed by bed geometry. In general, the study shows significant progress in modelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI. Our results suggest that the overall variability in modelled horizontal velocities is a response to variations in terminus position. The model simulates two major accelerations that are consistent with observations of changes in glacier terminus. The first event occurred in 1998 and was triggered by a retreat of the front and moderate thinning of JI prior to 1998. The second event, which started in 2003 and peaked in the summer 2004, was triggered by the final break-up of the floating tongue. This break-up reduced the buttressing at the JI terminus that resulted in further thinning. As the terminus retreated over a reverse bed slope into deeper water, sustained high velocities over the last decade have been observed at JI. Our model provides evidence that the 1998 and 2003 flow accelerations are most likely initiated by the ocean parametrization used but JI's subsequent dynamic response was governed by its own bed geometry. We are unable to reproduce the observed 2010-2012 terminus retreat in our simulations. We attribute this limitation to either inaccuracies in basal topography or to misrepresentations of the climatic forcings that were applied. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate the previously observed increase in mass loss through 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to successfully tackle the truly complex separation problems arising from areas such as proteomics research, the development of ultra-efficient and fast separation technology is required. In spatial three-dimensional chromatography, components are separated in the space domain with each peak being characterized by its coordinates in a three-dimensional separation body. Spatial three-dimensional (3D-)LC has the potential to offer unprecedented resolving power when orthogonal retention mechanisms are applied, since the total peak capacity is the product of the three individual peak capacities. Due to parallel developments during the second- and third-dimension separations, the analysis time is greatly reduced compared to a coupled-column multi-dimensional LC approach. This communication discusses the different design aspects to create a microfluidic chip for spatial 3D-LC. The use of physical barriers to confine the flow between the individual developments, and flow control by the use of 2D and 3D flow distributors is discussed. Furthermore, the in situ synthesis of monolithic stationary phases is demonstrated. Finally, the potential performance of a spatial 3D-LC systems is compared with the performance obtained with state-of-the-art 1D-LC and (coupled-column) 2D-LC approaches via a Pareto-optimization approach. The proposed microfluidic device for 3D-LC featuring 16 2D channels and 256 3D channels can potentially yield a peak capacity of 8000 in a total analysis time of 10 minutes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite gravimetry is a unique measurement technique for observing mass transport processes in the Earth system on a global scale, providing essential indicators of both subtle and dramatic global change. Although past and current satellite gravity missions have achieved spectacular science results, due to their limited spatial and temporal resolution as well as limited length of the available time series numerous important questions are still unresolved. Therefore, it is important to move from current demonstration capabilities to sustained observation of the Earth's gravity field. In an international initiative performed under the umbrella of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, consensus on the science and user needs for a future satellite gravity observing system has been derived by an international panel of scientists representing the main fields of application, i.e., continental hydrology, cryosphere, ocean, atmosphere and solid Earth. In this paper the main results and findings of this initiative are summarized. The required target performance in terms of equivalent water height has been identified as 5 cm for monthly fields and 0.5 cm/year for long-term trends at a spatial resolution of 150 km. The benefits to meet the main scientific and societal objectives are investigated, and the added value is demonstrated for selected case studies covering the main fields of application. The resulting consolidated view on the required performance of a future sustained satellite gravity observing system represents a solid basis for the definition of technological and mission requirements, and is a prerequisite for mission design studies of future mission concepts and constellations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the "correct" decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993-2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modeling of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) requires high-resolution models in order to capture the observed large gradients in the steep marginal areas. Until now, global climate models have not been considered suitable to model ice sheet SMB owing to model biases and insufficient resolution. This study analyzes the GIS SMB simulated for the period 1850-2005 by the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component with multiple elevation classes for SMB calculations. The model is evaluated against observational data and output from the regional model Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2 (RACMO2). Because of a lack of major climate biases, a sophisticated calculation of snow processes (including surface albedo evolution) and an adequate downscaling technique, CESM is able to realistically simulate GIS surface climate and SMB. CESM SMB agrees reasonably well with in situ data from 475 locations ( r = 0.80) and output from RACMO2 ( r = 0.79). The simulated mean SMB for 1960-2005 is 359 ± 120 Gt yr−1 in the range of estimates from regional climate models. The simulated seasonal mass variability is comparable with mass observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), with synchronous annual maximum (May) and minimum (August-September) and similar amplitudes of the seasonal cycle. CESM is able to simulate the bands of precipitation maxima along the southeast and northwest margins, but absolute precipitation rates are underestimated along the southeastern margin and overestimated in the high interior. The model correctly simulates the major ablation areas. Total refreezing represents 35% of the available liquid water (the sum of rain and melt). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a 600 years pre-industrial run of the newly developed EC-EARTH model features marked interdecadal variability with a dominant time-scale of 50-60 years. An oscillation of approximately 2 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10 m s) is identified, which manifests itself as a monopole causing the overturning to simultaneously strengthen (/weaken) and deepen (/shallow) as a whole. Eight years before the AMOC peaks, density in the Labrador-Irminger Sea region reaches a maximum, triggering deep water formation. This density change is caused by a counterclockwise advection of temperature and salinity anomalies at lower latitudes, which we relate to the north-south excursions of the subpolar-subtropical gyre boundary and variations in strength and position of the subpolar gyre and the North Atlantic Current. The AMOC fluctuations are not directly forced by the atmosphere, but occur in a delayed response of the ocean to forcing by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which initiates 'intergyre'-gyre fluctuations. Associated with the AMOC is a 60-year sea surface temperature variability in the Atlantic, with a pattern and timescale showing similarities with the real-world Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. This good agreement with observations lends a certain degree of credibility that the mechanism that is described in this article could be seen as representative of the real climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Regional variations in skill with and without trend are compared with similarly analysed uninitialised experiments to separate the trend due to monotonically increasing forcings from fluctuations around the trend due to the ocean initial state and aerosol forcings. In temperature most of the skill in both multi-model ensembles comes from the externally forced trends. The rise of the global mean temperature is represented well in the initialised hindcasts, but variations around the trend show little skill beyond the first year due to the absence of volcanic aerosols in the hindcasts and the unpredictability of ENSO. The models have non-trivial skill in hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature beyond the trend. This skill is highest in the northern North Atlantic in initialised experiments and in the subtropical North Atlantic in uninitialised simulations. A similar result is found in the Pacific Ocean, although the signal is less clear. The uninitialised simulations have good skill beyond the trend in the western North Pacific. The initialised experiments show some skill in the decadal ENSO region in the eastern Pacific, in agreement with previous studies. However, the results in this study are not statistically significant ( p ≈ 0.1) by themselves. The initialised models also show some skill in forecasting 4-year mean Sahel rainfall at lead times of 1 and 5 years, in agreement with the observed teleconnection from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, the skill is not statistically significant ( p ≈ 0.2). Furthermore, uninitialised simulations that include volcanic aerosols have similar skill. It is therefore still an open question whether initialisation improves predictions of Sahel rainfall. We conclude that the main source of skill in forecasting temperature is the trend forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean initial state contributes to skill in some regions, but variations in boundary forcings such as aerosols are as important in decadal forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise rates have become important drivers for policy makers dealing with the long-term protection of coastal populations. Scenario studies suggest that an acceleration in sea-level rise is imminent. The anticipated acceleration is hard to detect because of spatial and temporal variability, which consequently, have become important research topics. A known decadal-scale variation is the 18.6-year nodal cycle. Here, we show how failing to account for the nodal cycle resulted in an overestimation of Dutch sea-level rise. The nodal cycle is present across the globe with a varying phase and a median amplitude of 2.2 cm. Accounting for the nodal cycle increases the probability of detecting acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise. In an analysis of the Dutch coast, however, still no significant acceleration was found. The nodal cycle causes sea level to drop or to rise at an increased rate; therefore, accounting for it is crucial to accurately estimate regional sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LC-MS-based top-down proteomics involves the chromatographic separation and mass spectrometric characterization of intact proteins without prior enzymatic cleavage into peptides. This article describes the preparation of monolithic reversed-phase (RP) columns with optimized porous structure and their performance separating intact proteins. Peak capacities of around 600 could be achieved within a 2 h gradient. The combination of high-resolution monolith chromatography with high-accuracy time-of-flight mass spectrometrY (TOF-MS) allowed intact proteins and protein isoforms that differ only in their oxidation state to be distinguished. The article also describes various MS fragmentation techniques for the identification and the more detailed characterization of intact proteins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain glaciers and ice caps are contributing significantly to present rates of sea level rise and will continue to do so over the next century and beyond. The Canadian Arctic Archipelago, located off the northwestern shore of Greenland, contains one-third of the global volume of land ice outside the ice sheets, but its contribution to sea-level change remains largely unknown. Here we show that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has recently lost 61 ± 7 gigatonnes per year (Gt yr−1) of ice, contributing 0.17 ± 0.02 mm yr−1 to sea-level rise. Our estimates are of regional mass changes for the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago referring to the years 2004 to 2009 and are based on three independent approaches: surface mass-budget modelling plus an estimate of ice discharge (SMB+D), repeat satellite laser altimetry (ICESat) and repeat satellite gravimetry (GRACE). All three approaches show consistent and large mass-loss estimates. Between the periods 2004-2006 and 2007-2009, the rate of mass loss sharply increased from 31 ± 8 Gt yr−1 to 92 ± 12 Gt yr−1 in direct response to warmer summer temperatures, to which rates of ice loss are highly sensitive (64 ± 14 Gt yr−1 per 1 K increase). The duration of the study is too short to establish a long-term trend, but for 2007-2009, the increase in the rate of mass loss makes the Canadian Arctic Archipelago the single largest contributor to eustatic sea-level rise outside Greenland and Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tea consumption has been associated with decreased cardiovascular risk, but potential mechanisms of benefit are ill-defined. While epidemiologic studies suggest that drinking multiple cups of tea per day lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), previous trials of tea drinking and administration of green tea extract have failed to show any impact on lipids and lipoproteins in humans. Our objective was to study the impact of a the aflavin-enriched green tea extract on the lipids and lipoproteins of subjects with mild to moderate hypercholesterolemia. Methods: Double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial set in outpatient clinics in 6 urban hospitals in China. A total of 240 men and women 18 years or older on a low-fat diet with mild to moderate hypercholesterolemia were randomly assigned to receive a daily capsule containing theaflavin-enriched green tea extract (375 mg) or placebo for 12 weeks. Main outcome measures were mean percentage changes in total cholesterol, LDL-C, high-density lipo-protein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride levels compared with baseline. Results: After 12 weeks, the mean±SEM changes from baseline in total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, and triglyceride levels were -11.3%±0.9% (P=.01), -16.4%±1.1% (P=.01), 2.3%±2.1% (P=.27), and 2.6%±3.5% (P=.47), respectively, in the tea extract group. The mean levels of total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, and triglycerides did not change significantly in the placebo group. No significant adverse events were observed. Conclusion: The theaflavin-enriched green tea extract we studied is an effective adjunct to a low-saturated-fat diet to reduce LDL-C in hypercholesterolemic adults and is well tolerated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bilateral vocal-cord paralysis usually causes dyspnoea with inspiratory stridor. Most patients have a fairly satisfactory voice. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a series of 24 patients with bilateral vocal-cord paralysis treated by CO laser cordectomy during 1978-86. Breathing improved in 19 patients. In most of the patients, however, the voice worsened. If further surgery is necessary this can easily be performed. In appropriate patients the CO laser is an ideal surgical tool for the performance of a cordectomy in patients with bilateral vocal-cord paralysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]