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Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average)., Numerous long-term ecological changes have been attributed to climate change (1). Shifts in the seasonal timing of recurring biological events such as reproduction and migration (that is, phenological changes) have [...]

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0030-1299.2008.16769.x Byline: Arjun Amar, Simon Thirgood, James Pearce-Higgins, Steve Redpath Abstract: The issue of predator limitation of vertebrate prey populations is contentious, particularly when it involves species of economic or conservation value. In this paper, we examine the case of raptor predation on upland passerines and waders in Scotland. We analysed the abundance of five wader and passerine species on an upland sporting estate in southern Scotland during an eight-year period when hen harrier, peregrine and merlin numbers increased due to strict law enforcement. The abundance of meadow pipit and skylark declined significantly during this time. Golden plover also showed a declining trend, whereas curlew increased significantly and there was a near significant increase in lapwings. Contrasting the local population trends of these species with trends on nearby areas revealed higher rates of decline for meadow pipit and skylark at the site where raptors increased, but no differences in trends for any of the three wader species. There was a negative relationship between the number of breeding harriers and meadow pipit abundance the same year and between total annual raptor numbers and meadow pipit abundance. Predation rates of meadow pipit and skylark determined from observations at harrier nests suggested that predation in June was sufficient to remove up to 40% of the June meadow pipit population and up to 34% of the June skylark population. This 'quasi-natural' experiment suggests that harrier predation limited the abundance of their main prey, meadow pipit, and possibly the abundance of skylark. Thus, high densities of harriers may in theory reduce the abundance of the prey species which determine their breeding densities, potentially leading to lower harrier breeding densities in subsequent years. We found no evidence to suggest that raptor predation limited the populations of any of the three wader species. We infer that concerns over the impact of natural densities of hen harriers on vulnerable upland waders are unjustified. Article History: Manuscript Accepted 18 March 2008 Article note: A. Amar (arjun.amar@rspb.org.uk), The Game Conservancy Trust, Dalwhinnie, Inverness-shire, PH19 1AF, UK. Present address for AA and J. Pearce-Higgins, RSPB-Scotland, Dunedin House, 25 Ravelston Terrace, Edinburgh, UK, EH4 3TP. - S. Thirgood, Macaulay Inst., Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, UK, AB15 8QH. - S. Redpath, CEH-Banchory, Hill of Brathens, Banchory, Aberdeenshire, UK, AB31 4BW, and Aberdeen Centre for Environmental Sustainability, Aberdeen Univ., Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, UK, AB24 2TZ.

We modeled annual apparent survival of Band-tailed Manakins (Pipra fasciicauda) inhabiting a contiguous forest site and a 10.9 ha forest fragment in lowland Bolivia based on six years of capture-recapture data. There was significant age-related variation in apparent survival, but adult survival rates did not differ significantly with sex. Apparent survival rates of immature birds differed between the two locations, while adult survival rates did not. The most parsimonious model therefore estimated annual survival at 10% for immature birds in the contiguous forest site, 53% for immature birds in the forest fragment, 46% for adults in the first year after initial capture and 68% for adults in subsequent years. Forest fragmentation may have reduced immature dispersal, leading to inflated apparent survival rates in the forest fragment. Key words: banding, Band-tailed Manakin, forest fragmentation, Pipra fasciicauda, Pipridae, survival, transients. Con base en datos de captura y recaptura obtenidos a lo largo de seis anos, modelamos la supervivencia anual aparente de individuos de la especie Pipra fasciicauda en un bosque continuo y en un fragmento de bosque de 10.9 ha en las tierras bajas de Bolivia. Existio variacion significativa en la supervivencia aparente relacionada con la edad, pero las tasas de supervivencia de los adultos no difirieron significativamente entre sexos. Las tasas de supervivencia aparente de las aves inmaduras difirieron entre las dos localidades, mientras que las de los adultos no. El modelo mas parsimonioso estimo la tasa anual de supervivencia en un 10% para las aves inmaduras en el bosque continuo, en un 53%, para las aves inmaduras en el fragmento de bosque, en un 46% para los adultos en el primer ano luego de la captura initial y en un 68% para los adultos en anos subsiguientes. La fragmentacion del bosque podria haber reducido la dispersion de las aves inmaduras, lo que habria conllevado a sobrestimar las tasas de supervivencia aparente en el fragmento de bosque.

Many studies are conducted in which replication of units is prohibitive. Traditional methods of hypothesis testing do not allow for analysis of unreplicated experiments. An abundance of subsampling allows for accurate estimation of within-treatment variance, but does not constitute experimental error. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) is a ratio involving both the within-treatment variance and the between-treatment variance. We propose a method for analyzing unreplicated experiments that exploits the relationship among the ICC, within treatment variance, and between-treatment variance by placing a reasonable upper bound on the ICC (from prior research) and using subsampling to carry out classical tests of significance that have conservative levels of significance. The methodology has wide applicability for analyzing unreplicated experiments and may be implemented in SAS (Cary, NC) using the MIXED procedure. As a demonstration of the methodology, the authors used data from an unpublished study in which a researcher tested the effectiveness of four different treatments [(i) control; (ii) sample-dependent release of the predacious phytnseiid mite (Phytoseiulus persimilis Athias-Henriot, PP); (iii) scheduled release of PP; (iv) Floramite (2-(4-methoxy-[l,l-biphenyl]-3-yl)-l-methylethyl ester; UniRoyal Chemical Company, Inc., Middlesbury, CT] pesticide application] controlling two-spotted spider mites (hereafter refered to as just mites) in commercial greenhouses. Four greenhouses were used for the study. Within each greenhouse, eight potted ivy geranium [Pelargonium peltatum (L.) L'Her. ex Ait., 'Summer-Rose Red'] plants were inoculated with mites. One of the four treatments was applied in each of the four greenhouses. At the end of 1 wk, the number of mites was counted on each potted plant in each greenhouse. Using the proposed methodology, one-factor ANOVA was performed with follow-up tests identifying significant differences among the treatment means.

The identification and characterization of the Arabidopsis homologue of MSH4 (AtMSH4) is reported which can only be detected in floral tissues, consistent with a role in reproduction. Immunofluorescence studies indicate that its expression is limited to early meiotic prophase I, preceding the synapsis of homologous chromosomes.

This article is an account of the screening for Bacillus anthracis in the samples collected after the bioterrorism attack in the Washington D.C. area. DNA extracted from the bacterial colonies obtained from the samples test positive for the lethal factor, pXO1, and for the capA and vrr gene amplicons by polymerase chain reaction. Replicon sequence analysis show greater than 99% homology with W-21 strains of B. anthacis.

Three new product development programs attempting to meet challenging targets for time-to-market, quality, and cost were in urgent need of space and facilities. A decision was made to reengineer a light commercial building 50 miles from the main research and development and manufacturing facility. This satellite facility that housed a supplier of electroformed parts to another original equipment manufacturer would need to be entirely retrofitted to accommodate the research and development and manufacturing requirements of the four groups. The existing corporate facilities engineering group was unable to deliver the array of requests generated by the product development programs. This included 31 different projects, ranging from clean rooms and labs to air handling systems and offices. A project management team was spun off with the directive to meet customer requirements on time and within budget--even if it meant breaking rules. The project had many of the earmarks of a 'skunkworks,' the concept originally developed by Lockheed Martin, as a way to quickly develop solutions by bypassing some of the time-consuming bureaucracy and allowing the team to make ad hoc decisions. The skunkworks project management team was able to deliver the projects on time and within budget by: (1) adhering to a clear focus on their mission; (2) including extensive up-front planning efforts; (3) critically analyzing customer needs; (4) leveraging project overlaps; (5) involving suppliers early; (6) empowering the team; and (7) breaking roles. Many of the lessons learned from this project are being treated as organizational learning and are currently being incorporated into other facilities engineering groups to improve their operations. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(2002) 18:1(21) CE Database keywords: Project management; Partnerships; Project planning.

Several sample preparation methods for extracting high-quality DNA for PCR were evaluated. For Escherichia coli, Xtra Amp tube, Isocode paper, Instagene matrix, and PrepMan matrix methods were all suitable. For Cryptosporidium parvum, Xtra Amp and Instagene methods were suitable.

Research shows that bivalve molluscs remove Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts from contaminated water and retain on gills and in hemolymph. Oysters collected from Chesapeake Bay area sites are infected with C. parvum oocysts and pose a health risk for the consumers., Oocysts of Cryptosporidium parvum, a zoonotic waterborne pathogen, can be removed by bivalve molluscs from contaminated water and retained on gills and in hemolymph. We identified oocysts of C. parvum [...]

The explosion in the amount of data available to society today has not led to a corresponding growth in undergraduate statistics programs to produce statisticians to deal with such data. Instead, the profession is faced with the specter of 'statistics departments under siege.' It is time to reexamine the undergraduate discipline in light of society's needs. The traditional emphasis on the mathematics of the discipline may have resulted in insufficient attention being paid to its nonmathematical aspects. These things are very much a part of what a practicing statistician does and what customers of statistics need. They include things like designing scientific studies in a team-oriented environment, ensuring protocol compliance, ensuring data quality, managing the storage/transmission/retrieval of data, and providing descriptive and graphical analyses of data. To bring greater purpose and practicality to programs for the undergraduate statistics major, it will be necessary to give greater prominence to nonmathematical statistics. Courses are suggested that would meet important needs of the undergraduate statistics major and set the discipline of statistics apart from mathematics. KEY WORDS: Curriculum development; Data specialist; Mathematical sciences., 1. STATUS OF STATISTICS AS AN UNDERGRADUATE DISCIPLINE By the undergraduate statistics discipline I mean those things in teaching, research, and service that are necessary to sustain an undergraduate program [...]

Accelerated life tests (ALT) are used to gain information on the life distribution of products or materials. An alternative model to the Weibull CE-M step-stress accelerated life test is proposed. KH-M is based on time-transformation of the exponential model and is mathematically simpler, realistic with regard to hazard failure and related to the Bhattacharyya & Soejoeti tampered failure-rate model.

Compromise test plans using 3 stress levels have been proposed as alternatives to the optimum linear or quadratic test plans in step-stress accelerated life testing. These plans result from a compromise between the optimum linear and optimum quadratic plans, and compare favorably to them when the model is either linear or quadratic. The 3-step plans allow for checks of model adequacy and nonlinearity unlike the 2-step plans. The criterion for optimality of such plans takes into account the asymptotic variances of the log of the mean failure time at the design stress for linear and quadratic models.

The Making of Modern Medicine: Turning Points in the Treatment of Disease, by Michael Bliss. Routledge Worlds series. Toronto, University of Toronto Press, 2011. vii, 104 pp. $21.95 Cdn (cloth). [...]

Experimental studies on biliary-diverted rats show that after 72h of bilary diversion there is a downregulation of taurocholate transport by the ileal brush-border membrane and basolateral membrane of the hepatocytes. This downregulation accompanies changes in both transporter density and affinity. Changes in membrane lipid composition also influence the alterations in the transporter expression. Substrate availability influences the enterohepatic circulation of bile acids.

Two virtually identical genes, ZYP1a and ZYP1b were identified in the Arabidopsis transverse filament (TF) protein. The Arabidopsis synaptonemal complex protein ZYP1 is essential for chromosome synapsis and normal fidelity of crossing over.

Weekly surveys of stream water was conducted in the metropolitan Baltimore area for the prevalence of potentially pathogenic Escherichia coli strains through the use of PCR for the tir and stx1 and stx2 genes are presented. The results reveal that pathogenic Escherichia coli are continually deposited into a variety of stream habitats and suggest that this organism might be a permanent member of the gastrointestinal microflora of humans and animals in the metropolitan Baltimore area.

The presence of the bovine enteroviruses is detected in feces of 76% of cattle, 38% of deer, 30% geese and the water in the vicinity of the closed herd cattle where this study is done. Results suggest that bovine enteroviruses can be indicators of bovine fecal pollution in an animal agricultural area.

Author(s): James W. Pearce-Higgins (corresponding author) [1] Well-structured schemes for citizen scientists can minimize the potential for conflicts of interest (Nature 524, 265;10.1038/524265a 2015). Projects such as the UK Breeding [...]

The commentaries of four experts showed different opinions on the importance of the undergraduate courses in the statistical academia. However, almost all agreed on the idea that statistics is not a subset of mathematics. Furthermore, all were also in agreement in the need for the consideration of the job market for undergraduates in curriculum structuring. There was also an agreement in the need for mathematicians to have a better understanding of their role in statistics in mathematics department., I truly enjoyed reading the four discussants' views of our two articles and, for the most part, I am highly supportive of their positions. I certainly could not disagree with [...]