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Using neuroimaging and electrophysiological data to infer neural parameter estimations from theoretical circuits requires solving the inverse problem. Here, we provide a new Julia language package designed to i) compose complex dynamical models in a simple and modular way with ModelingToolkit.jl, ii) implement parameter fitting based on spectral dynamic causal modeling (sDCM) using the Laplace approximation, analogous to MATLAB implementation in SPM12, and iii) leverage Julia's unique strengths to increase accuracy and speed by employing Automatic Differentiation during the fitting procedure. To illustrate the utility of our flexible modular approach, we provide a method to improve correction for fMRI scanner field strengths (1.5T, 3T, 7T) when fitting models to real data.

Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

This study assesses the reliability of resting-state dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of magnetoencephalography (MEG) under conductance-based canonical microcircuit models, in terms of both posterior parameter estimates and model evidence. We use resting-state MEG data from two sessions, acquired 2 weeks apart, from a cohort with high between-subject variance arising from Alzheimer's disease. Our focus is not on the effect of disease, but on the reliability of the methods (as within-subject between-session agreement), which is crucial for future studies of disease progression and drug intervention. To assess the reliability of first-level DCMs, we compare model evidence associated with the covariance among subject-specific free energies (i.e., the 'quality' of the models) with versus without interclass correlations. We then used parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) to investigate the differences between the inferred DCM parameter probability distributions at the between subject level. Specifically, we examined the evidence for or against parameter differences (i) within-subject, within-session, and between-epochs; (ii) within-subject between-session; and (iii) within-site between-subjects, accommodating the conditional dependency among parameter estimates. We show that for data acquired close in time, and under similar circumstances, more than 95% of inferred DCM parameters are unlikely to differ, speaking to mutual predictability over sessions. Using PEB, we show a reciprocal relationship between a conventional definition of 'reliability' and the conditional dependency among inferred model parameters. Our analyses confirm the reliability and reproducibility of the conductance-based DCMs for resting-state neurophysiological data. In this respect, the implicit generative modelling is suitable for interventional and longitudinal studies of neurological and psychiatric disorders., (© 2024 The Author(s). Human Brain Mapping published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

A paradigmatic account may suffice to explain behavioral evolution in early Homo. We propose a parsimonious account that (1) could explain a particular, frequently-encountered, archeological outcome of behavior in early Homo - namely, the fashioning of a Paleolithic stone 'handaxe' - from a biological theoretic perspective informed by the free energy principle (FEP); and that (2) regards instances of the outcome as postdictive or retrodictive, circumstantial corroboration. Our proposal considers humankind evolving as a self-organizing biological ecosystem at a geological time-scale. We offer a narrative treatment of this self-organization in terms of the FEP. Specifically, we indicate how 'cognitive surprises' could underwrite an evolving propensity in early Homo to express sporadic unorthodox or anomalous behavior. This co-evolutionary propensity has left us a legacy of Paleolithic artifacts that is reminiscent of a 'snakes and ladders' board game of appearances, disappearances, and reappearances of particular archeological traces of Paleolithic behavior. When detected in the Early and Middle Pleistocene record, anthropologists and archeologists often imagine evidence of unusual or novel behavior in terms of early humankind ascending the rungs of a figurative phylogenetic 'ladder' - as if these corresponded to progressive evolution of cognitive abilities that enabled incremental achievements of increasingly innovative technical prowess, culminating in the cognitive ascendancy of Homo sapiens. The conjecture overlooks a plausible likelihood that behavior by an individual who was atypical among her conspecifics could have been disregarded in a community of Hominina (for definition see Appendix 1) that failed to recognize, imagine, or articulate potential advantages of adopting hitherto unorthodox behavior. Such failure, as well as diverse fortuitous demographic accidents, would cause exceptional personal behavior to be ignored and hence unremembered. It could disappear by a pitfall, down a 'snake', as it were, in the figurative evolutionary board game; thereby causing a discontinuity in the evolution of human behavior that presents like an evolutionary puzzle. The puzzle discomforts some paleoanthropologists trained in the natural and life sciences. They often dismiss it, explaining it away with such self-justifying conjectures as that, maybe, separate paleospecies of Homo differentially possessed different cognitive abilities, which, supposedly, could account for the presence or absence in the Pleistocene archeological record of traces of this or that behavioral outcome or skill. We argue that an alternative perspective - that inherits from the FEP and an individual's 'active inference' about its surroundings and of its own responses - affords a prosaic, deflationary, and parsimonious way to account for appearances, disappearances, and reappearances of particular behavioral outcomes and skills of early humankind., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Goal-directed actions are characterized by two main features: the content (i.e., the action goal) and the form, called vitality forms (VF) (i.e., how actions are executed). It is well established that both the action content and the capacity to understand the content of another's action are mediated by a network formed by a set of parietal and frontal brain areas. In contrast, the neural bases of action forms (e.g., gentle or rude actions) have not been characterized. However, there are now studies showing that the observation and execution of actions endowed with VF activate, in addition to the parieto-frontal network, the dorso-central insula (DCI). In the present study, we established-using dynamic causal modeling (DCM)-the direction of information flow during observation and execution of actions endowed with gentle and rude VF in the human brain. Based on previous fMRI studies, the selected nodes for the DCM comprised the posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), the inferior parietal lobule (IPL), the premotor cortex (PM), and the DCI. Bayesian model comparison showed that, during action observation, two streams arose from pSTS: one toward IPL, concerning the action goal, and one toward DCI, concerning the action vitality forms. During action execution, two streams arose from PM: one toward IPL, concerning the action goal and one toward DCI concerning action vitality forms. This last finding opens an interesting question concerning the possibility to elicit VF in two distinct ways: cognitively (from PM to DCI) and affectively (from DCI to PM)., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

While the ubiquity and importance of narratives for human adaptation is widely recognized, there is no integrative framework for understanding the roles of narrative in human adaptation. Research has identified several cognitive and social functions of narratives that are conducive to well-being and adaptation as well as to coordinated social practices and enculturation. In this paper, we characterize the cognitive and social functions of narratives in terms of active inference, to support the claim that one of the main adaptive functions of narrative is to generate more useful (i.e., accurate, parsimonious) predictions for the individual, as well as to coordinate group action (over multiple timescales) through shared predictions about collective behavior. Active inference is a theory that depicts the fundamental tendency of living organisms to adapt by proactively inferring the causes of their sensations (including their own actions). We review narrative research on identity, event segmentation, episodic memory, future projections, storytelling practices, enculturation, and master narratives. We show how this research dovetails with the active inference framework and propose an account of the cognitive and social functions of narrative that emphasizes that narratives are for the future -even when they are focused on recollecting or recounting the past. Understanding narratives as cognitive and cultural tools for mutual prediction in social contexts can guide research on narrative in adaptive behavior and psychopathology, based on a parsimonious mechanistic model of some of the basic adaptive functions of narrative., Competing Interests: Authors MR and KF were employed by the VERSES Research Lab. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2024 Bouizegarene, Ramstead, Constant, Friston and Kirmayer.)

Flow has been described as a state of optimal performance, experienced universally across a broad range of domains: from art to athletics, gaming to writing. However, its phenomenal characteristics can, at first glance, be puzzling. Firstly, individuals in flow supposedly report a loss of self-awareness, even though they perform in a manner which seems to evince their agency and skill. Secondly, flow states are felt to be effortless, despite the prerequisite complexity of the tasks that engender them. In this paper, we unpick these features of flow, as well as others, through the active inference framework, which posits that action and perception are forms of active Bayesian inference directed at sustained self-organisation; i.e., the minimisation of variational free energy. We propose that the phenomenology of flow is rooted in the deployment of high precision weight over (i) the expected sensory consequences of action and (ii) beliefs about how action will sequentially unfold. This computational mechanism thus draws the embodied cognitive system to minimise the ensuing (i.e., expected) free energy through the exploitation of the pragmatic affordances at hand. Furthermore, given the challenging dynamics the flow-inducing situation presents, attention must be wholly focussed on the unfolding task whilst counterfactual planning is restricted, leading to the attested loss of the sense of self-as-object. This involves the inhibition of both the sense of self as a temporally extended object and higher-order, meta-cognitive forms of self-conceptualisation. Nevertheless, we stress that self-awareness is not entirely lost in flow. Rather, it is pre-reflective and bodily. Our approach to bodily-action-centred phenomenology can be applied to similar facets of seemingly agentive experience beyond canonical flow states, providing insights into the mechanisms of so-called selfless experiences, embodied expertise and wellbeing., (Copyright © 2024 Parvizi-Wayne, Sandved-Smith, Pitliya, Limanowski, Tufft and Friston.)

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting people's health, including those with neurological and psychiatric diseases. Currently, making inferences about the effect of climate change on neurological and psychiatric diseases is challenging because of an overall sparsity of data, differing study methods, paucity of detail regarding disease subtypes, little consideration of the effect of individual and population genetics, and widely differing geographical locations with the potential for regional influences. However, evidence suggests that the incidence, prevalence, and severity of many nervous system conditions (eg, stroke, neurological infections, and some mental health disorders) can be affected by climate change. The data show broad and complex adverse effects, especially of temperature extremes to which people are unaccustomed and wide diurnal temperature fluctuations. Protective measures might be possible through local forecasting. Few studies project the future effects of climate change on brain health, hindering policy developments. Robust studies on the threats from changing climate for people who have, or are at risk of developing, disorders of the nervous system are urgently needed., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests HMo chairs Dyson's Scientific Advisory Board and the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change; holds a patent relating to a means to improve patient hydration in hospitals; is a member of the UK Climate and Health Council; is a cofounder of Real Zero (a non-profit company helping decarbonise health care); and has received honoraria for talks on climate change, but none for talks related to the topic of this Personal View. NCF is the member of the Research Strategy Council of Alzheimer's Society (UK). DJW has received grant funding from the Stroke Association and British Heart Foundation; speaking honoraria from Bayer; speaking and chairing honoraria from Alexion and NovoNordisk; and consultancy fees from Alnylam, Bayer, and NovoNordisk. DW has also participated on a data safety monitoring board for OXHARP, and the TICH-3, RESTART, MACE-ICH, and PLINTH Trial Steering Committees. MAK has received payments from Bloomsbury Genetic Therapies and PTC; holds shares in Bloomsbury Genetic Therapies (unrelated to this work as involvement pertains to the development of gene therapies for rare neurometabolic disorders); has leadership or fiduciary role in LifeArc grants committee (not relevant to this work as this membership pertains to the review of grants and allocation of funding through the Philanthropic fund); is the theme lead for the National Institute for Health Research Great Ormond Street Hospital Biomedical Research Centre Accelerating Novel Therapies; and has patents, issued or pending, for DTDS viral vector. OC reports speaking honoraria from Merck and Biogen and for participation on a data safety monitoring board for Novartis. MM has grants or contracts from Ehlers Danlos Society, Abbott, and Medtronic; reports consulting fees from AbbVie, Kriya, TEVA, Lundbeck, Eli Lilly, Salvia, and Pfizer, all paid to their institution; reports payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaux, manuscript writing, or educational events from AbbVie, Pfizer, and Eli Lilly; reports patents (planned, issued, or pending) for WO2018051103A1: System and method for diagnosing and treating headaches; and is the president of the medical advisory board of CSF Leak Association and a board member of the Anglo Dutch Migraine Association. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.)

Work at the intersection of philosophy and psychiatry has an extensive and influential history, and has received increased attention recently, with the emergence of professional associations and a growing literature. In this paper, we review key advances in work on philosophy and psychiatry, and their related clinical implications. First, in understanding and categorizing mental disorder, both naturalist and normativist considerations are now viewed as important - psychiatric constructs necessitate a consideration of both facts and values. At a conceptual level, this integrative view encourages moving away from strict scientism to soft naturalism, while in clinical practice this facilitates both evidence-based and values-based mental health care. Second, in considering the nature of psychiatric science, there is now increasing emphasis on a pluralist approach, including ontological, explanatory and value pluralism. Conceptually, a pluralist approach acknowledges the multi-level causal interactions that give rise to psychopathology, while clinically it emphasizes the importance of a broad range of "difference-makers", as well as a consideration of "lived experience" in both research and practice. Third, in considering a range of questions about the brain-mind, and how both somatic and psychic factors contribute to the development and maintenance of mental disorders, conceptual and empirical work on embodied cognition provides an increasingly valuable approach. Viewing the brain-mind as embodied, embedded and enactive offers a conceptual approach to the mind-body problem that facilitates the clinical integration of advances in both cognitive-affective neuroscience and phenomenological psychopathology., (© 2024 World Psychiatric Association.)

Collective motion is ubiquitous in nature; groups of animals, such as fish, birds, and ungulates appear to move as a whole, exhibiting a rich behavioral repertoire that ranges from directed movement to milling to disordered swarming. Typically, such macroscopic patterns arise from decentralized, local interactions among constituent components (e.g., individual fish in a school). Preeminent models of this process describe individuals as self-propelled particles, subject to self-generated motion and "social forces" such as short-range repulsion and long-range attraction or alignment. However, organisms are not particles; they are probabilistic decision-makers. Here, we introduce an approach to modeling collective behavior based on active inference. This cognitive framework casts behavior as the consequence of a single imperative: to minimize surprise. We demonstrate that many empirically observed collective phenomena, including cohesion, milling, and directed motion, emerge naturally when considering behavior as driven by active Bayesian inference-without explicitly building behavioral rules or goals into individual agents. Furthermore, we show that active inference can recover and generalize the classical notion of social forces as agents attempt to suppress prediction errors that conflict with their expectations. By exploring the parameter space of the belief-based model, we reveal nontrivial relationships between the individual beliefs and group properties like polarization and the tendency to visit different collective states. We also explore how individual beliefs about uncertainty determine collective decision-making accuracy. Finally, we show how agents can update their generative model over time, resulting in groups that are collectively more sensitive to external fluctuations and encode information more robustly., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Background and Purpose: In acute spinal cord injury (SCI), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reveals tissue bridges and neurodegeneration for 2 years. This 5-year study aims to track initial lesion changes, subsequent neurodegeneration, and their impact on recovery., Methods: This prospective longitudinal study enrolled acute SCI patients and healthy controls who were assessed clinically-and by MRI-regularly from 3 days postinjury up to 60 months. We employed histologically cross-validated quantitative MRI sequences sensitive to volume, myelin, and iron changes, thereby reflecting indirectly processes of neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation. General linear models tracked lesion and remote changes in volume, myelin- and iron-sensitive magnetic resonance indices over 5 years. Associations between lesion, degeneration, and recovery (using the Spinal Cord Independence Measure [SCIM] questionnaire and the International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury total motor score) were assessed., Results: Patients' motor scores improved by an average of 12.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.70-19.00) points, and SCIM by 26.08 (95% CI = 17.00-35.20) points. Within 3-28 days post-SCI, lesion size decreased by more than two-thirds (3 days: 302.52 ± 185.80 mm 2 , 28 days: 76.77 ± 88.62 mm 2 ), revealing tissue bridges. Cervical cord and corticospinal tract volumes transiently increased in SCI patients by 5% and 3%, respectively, accompanied by cervical myelin decreases and iron increases. Over time, progressive atrophy was observed in both regions, which was linked to early lesion dynamics. Tissue bridges, reduced swelling, and myelin content decreases were predictive of long-term motor score recovery and improved SCIM score., Conclusions: Studying acute changes and their impact on longer follow-up provides insights into SCI trajectory, highlighting the importance of acute intervention while indicating the potential to influence outcomes in the later stages., (© 2024 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Neurology.)

We present a didactic introduction to spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM), a Bayesian state-space modeling approach used to infer effective connectivity from noninvasive neuroimaging data. Spectral DCM is currently the most widely applied DCM variant for resting-state functional MRI analysis. Our aim is to explain its technical foundations to an audience with limited expertise in state-space modeling and spectral data analysis. Particular attention will be paid to cross-spectral density, which is the most distinctive feature of spectral DCM and is closely related to functional connectivity, as measured by (zero-lag) Pearson correlations. In fact, the model parameters estimated by spectral DCM are those that best reproduce the cross-correlations between all measurements-at all time lags-including the zero-lag correlations that are usually interpreted as functional connectivity. We derive the functional connectivity matrix from the model equations and show how changing a single effective connectivity parameter can affect all pairwise correlations. To complicate matters, the pairs of brain regions showing the largest changes in functional connectivity do not necessarily coincide with those presenting the largest changes in effective connectivity. We discuss the implications and conclude with a comprehensive summary of the assumptions and limitations of spectral DCM., Competing Interests: Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (© 2024 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.)

This paper considers neural representation through the lens of active inference, a normative framework for understanding brain function. It delves into how living organisms employ generative models to minimize the discrepancy between predictions and observations (as scored with variational free energy). The ensuing analysis suggests that the brain learns generative models to navigate the world adaptively, not (or not solely) to understand it. Different living organisms may possess an array of generative models, spanning from those that support action-perception cycles to those that underwrite planning and imagination; namely, from explicit models that entail variables for predicting concurrent sensations, like objects, faces, or people-to action-oriented models that predict action outcomes. It then elucidates how generative models and belief dynamics might link to neural representation and the implications of different types of generative models for understanding an agent's cognitive capabilities in relation to its ecological niche. The paper concludes with open questions regarding the evolution of generative models and the development of advanced cognitive abilities-and the gradual transition from pragmatic to detached neural representations. The analysis on offer foregrounds the diverse roles that generative models play in cognitive processes and the evolution of neural representation., (© 2024 The New York Academy of Sciences.)

A pervasive challenge in neuroscience is testing whether neuronal connectivity changes over time due to specific causes, such as stimuli, events, or clinical interventions. Recent hardware innovations and falling data storage costs enable longer, more naturalistic neuronal recordings. The implicit opportunity for understanding the self-organised brain calls for new analysis methods that link temporal scales: from the order of milliseconds over which neuronal dynamics evolve, to the order of minutes, days, or even years over which experimental observations unfold. This review article demonstrates how hierarchical generative models and Bayesian inference help to characterise neuronal activity across different time scales. Crucially, these methods go beyond describing statistical associations among observations and enable inference about underlying mechanisms. We offer an overview of fundamental concepts in state-space modeling and suggest a taxonomy for these methods. Additionally, we introduce key mathematical principles that underscore a separation of temporal scales, such as the slaving principle, and review Bayesian methods that are being used to test hypotheses about the brain with multiscale data. We hope that this review will serve as a useful primer for experimental and computational neuroscientists on the state of the art and current directions of travel in the complex systems modelling literature., Competing Interests: Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (© 2023 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.)

In this paper, we unite concepts from Husserlian phenomenology, the active inference framework in theoretical biology, and category theory in mathematics to develop a comprehensive framework for understanding social action premised on shared goals. We begin with an overview of Husserlian phenomenology, focusing on aspects of inner time-consciousness, namely, retention, primal impression, and protention. We then review active inference as a formal approach to modeling agent behavior based on variational (approximate Bayesian) inference. Expanding upon Husserl's model of time consciousness, we consider collective goal-directed behavior, emphasizing shared protentions among agents and their connection to the shared generative models of active inference. This integrated framework aims to formalize shared goals in terms of shared protentions, and thereby shed light on the emergence of group intentionality. Building on this foundation, we incorporate mathematical tools from category theory, in particular, sheaf and topos theory, to furnish a mathematical image of individual and group interactions within a stochastic environment. Specifically, we employ morphisms between polynomial representations of individual agent models, allowing predictions not only of their own behaviors but also those of other agents and environmental responses. Sheaf and topos theory facilitates the construction of coherent agent worldviews and provides a way of representing consensus or shared understanding. We explore the emergence of shared protentions, bridging the phenomenology of temporal structure, multi-agent active inference systems, and category theory. Shared protentions are highlighted as pivotal for coordination and achieving common objectives. We conclude by acknowledging the intricacies stemming from stochastic systems and uncertainties in realizing shared goals.

Cerebellar computations are necessary for fine behavioural control and may rely on internal models for estimation of behaviourally relevant states. Here, we propose that the central cerebellar function is to estimate how states interact with each other, and to use these estimates to coordinates extra-cerebellar neuronal dynamics underpinning a range of interconnected behaviours. To support this claim, we describe a cerebellar model for state estimation that includes state interactions, and link this model with the neuronal architecture and dynamics observed empirically. This is formalised using the free energy principle, which provides a dual perspective on a system in terms of both the dynamics of its physical-in this case neuronal-states, and the inferential process they entail. As a demonstration of this proposal, we simulate cerebellar-dependent synchronisation of whisking and respiration, which are known to be tightly coupled in rodents, as well as limb and tail coordination during locomotion. In summary, we propose that the ubiquitous involvement of the cerebellum in behaviour arises from its central role in precisely coupling behavioural domains., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In the realm of law enforcement, the "police hunch" has long been a mysterious but crucial aspect of decision-making. Drawing on the developing framework of Active Inference from cognitive science, this theoretical article examines the genesis, mechanics, and implications of the police hunch. It argues that hunches - often vital in high-stakes situations - should not be described as mere intuitions, but as intricate products of our mind's generative models. These models, shaped by observations of the social world and assimilated and enacted through active inference, seek to reduce surprise and make hunches an indispensable tool for officers, in exactly the same way that hypotheses are indispensable for scientists. However, the predictive validity of hunches is influenced by a range of factors, including experience and bias, thus warranting critical examination of their reliability. This article not only explores the formation of police hunches but also provides practical insights for officers and researchers on how to harness the power of active inference to fully understand policing decisions and subsequently explore new avenues for future research., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2024 Stubbs and Friston.)

There are considerable gaps in our understanding of the relationship between human brain activity measured at different temporal and spatial scales. Here, electrocorticography (ECoG) measures were used to predict functional MRI changes in the sensorimotor cortex in two brain states: at rest and during motor performance. The specificity of this relationship to spatial co-localisation of the two signals was also investigated. We acquired simultaneous ECoG-fMRI in the sensorimotor cortex of three patients with epilepsy. During motor activity, high gamma power was the only frequency band where the electrophysiological response was co-localised with fMRI measures across all subjects. The best model of fMRI changes across states was its principal components, a parsimonious description of the entire ECoG spectrogram. This model performed much better than any others that were based either on the classical frequency bands or on summary measures of cross-spectral changes. The region-specific fMRI signal is reflected in spatially and spectrally distributed EEG activity.

This review paper offers an overview of the history and future of active inference-a unifying perspective on action and perception. Active inference is based upon the idea that sentient behavior depends upon our brains' implicit use of internal models to predict, infer, and direct action. Our focus is upon the conceptual roots and development of this theory of (basic) sentience and does not follow a rigid chronological narrative. We trace the evolution from Helmholtzian ideas on unconscious inference, through to a contemporary understanding of action and perception. In doing so, we touch upon related perspectives, the neural underpinnings of active inference, and the opportunities for future development. Key steps in this development include the formulation of predictive coding models and related theories of neuronal message passing, the use of sequential models for planning and policy optimization, and the importance of hierarchical (temporally) deep internal (i.e., generative or world) models. Active inference has been used to account for aspects of anatomy and neurophysiology, to offer theories of psychopathology in terms of aberrant precision control, and to unify extant psychological theories. We anticipate further development in all these areas and note the exciting early work applying active inference beyond neuroscience. This suggests a future not just in biology, but in robotics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Until now, a satisfying account of the cause and purpose of migraine has remained elusive. We explain migraine within the frameworks of allostasis (the situationally-flexible, forward-looking equivalent of homeostasis) and active inference (interacting with the environment via internally-generated predictions). Due to its multimodality, and long timescales between cause and effect, allostasis is inherently prone to catastrophic error, which might be impossible to correct once fully manifest, an early indicator which is elevated prediction error (discrepancy between prediction and sensory input) associated with internal sensations (interoception). Errors can usually be resolved in a targeted manner by action (correcting the physiological state) or perception (updating predictions in light of sensory input); persistent errors are amplified broadly and multimodally, to prioritise their resolution (the migraine premonitory phase); finally, if still unresolved, progressive amplification renders further changes to internal or external sensory inputs intolerably intense, enforcing physiological stability, and facilitating accurate allostatic prediction updating. As such, migraine is an effective 'failsafe' for allostasis, however it has potential to become excessively triggered, therefore maladaptive., Competing Interests: Competing interests The authors report no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Prominent accounts of sentient behavior depict brains as generative models of organismic interaction with the world, evincing intriguing similarities with current advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI). However, because they contend with the control of purposive, life-sustaining sensorimotor interactions, the generative models of living organisms are inextricably anchored to the body and world. Unlike the passive models learned by generative AI systems, they must capture and control the sensory consequences of action. This allows embodied agents to intervene upon their worlds in ways that constantly put their best models to the test, thus providing a solid bedrock that is - we argue - essential to the development of genuine understanding. We review the resulting implications and consider future directions for generative AI., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests K.F. holds a chief scientific adviser position at VERSES AI. The other authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

How can one conciliate the claim that humans are uncertainty minimizing systems that seek to navigate predictable and familiar environments with the claim that humans can be creative? We call this the Enlightened Room Problem (ERP). The solution, we suggest, lies not (or not only) in the error-minimizing brain but in the environment itself. Creativity emerges from various degrees of interplay between predictive brains and changing environments: ones that repeatedly move the goalposts for our own error-minimizing machinery. By (co)constructing these challenging worlds, we effectively alter and expand the space within which our own prediction engines operate, and that function as 'exploration bubbles' that enable information seeking, uncertainty minimizing minds to penetrate deeper and deeper into artistic, scientific and engineering space. In what follows, we offer a proof of principle for this kind of environmentally led cognitive expansion. This article is part of the theme issue 'Art, aesthetics and predictive processing: theoretical and empirical perspectives'.

How to account for the power that art holds over us? Why do artworks touch us deeply, consoling, transforming or invigorating us in the process? In this paper, we argue that an answer to this question might emerge from a fecund framework in cognitive science known as predictive processing (a.k.a. active inference). We unpack how this approach connects sense-making and aesthetic experiences through the idea of an 'epistemic arc', consisting of three parts (curiosity, epistemic action and aha experiences), which we cast as aspects of active inference. We then show how epistemic arcs are built and sustained by artworks to provide us with those satisfying experiences that we tend to call 'aesthetic'. Next, we defuse two key objections to this approach; namely, that it places undue emphasis on the cognitive component of our aesthetic encounters-at the expense of affective aspects-and on closure and uncertainty minimization (order)-at the expense of openness and lingering uncertainty (change). We show that the approach offers crucial resources to account for the open-ended, free and playful behaviour inherent in aesthetic experiences. The upshot is a promising but deflationary approach, both philosophically informed and psychologically sound, that opens new empirical avenues for understanding our aesthetic encounters. This article is part of the theme issue 'Art, aesthetics and predictive processing: theoretical and empirical perspectives'.

Bistable perception follows from observing a static, ambiguous, (visual) stimulus with two possible interpretations. Here, we present an active (Bayesian) inference account of bistable perception and posit that perceptual transitions between different interpretations (i.e. inferences) of the same stimulus ensue from specific eye movements that shift the focus to a different visual feature. Formally, these inferences are a consequence of precision control that determines how confident beliefs are and change the frequency with which one can perceive-and alternate between-two distinct percepts. We hypothesized that there are multiple, but distinct, ways in which precision modulation can interact to give rise to a similar frequency of bistable perception. We validated this using numerical simulations of the Necker cube paradigm and demonstrate the multiple routes that underwrite the frequency of perceptual alternation. Our results provide an (enactive) computational account of the intricate precision balance underwriting bistable perception. Importantly, these precision parameters can be considered the computational homologs of particular neurotransmitters-i.e. acetylcholine, noradrenaline, dopamine-that have been previously implicated in controlling bistable perception, providing a computational link between the neurochemistry and perception., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permission@oup.com.)

In previous papers, we proposed that the dorsal attention system's top-down control is regulated by the dorsal division of the limbic system, providing a feedforward or impulsive form of control generating expectancies during active inference. In contrast, we proposed that the ventral attention system is regulated by the ventral limbic division, regulating feedback constraints and error-correction for active inference within the neocortical hierarchy. Here, we propose that these forms of cognitive control reflect vertical integration of subcortical arousal control systems that evolved for specific forms of behavior control. The feedforward impetus to action is regulated by phasic arousal, mediated by lemnothalamic projections from the reticular activating system of the lower brainstem, and then elaborated by the hippocampus and dorsal limbic division. In contrast, feedback constraint-based on environmental requirements-is regulated by the tonic activation furnished by collothalamic projections from the midbrain arousal control centers, and then sustained and elaborated by the amygdala, basal ganglia, and ventral limbic division. In an evolutionary-developmental analysis, understanding these differing forms of active affordance-for arousal and motor control within the subcortical vertebrate neuraxis-may help explain the evolution of active inference regulating the cognition of expectancy and error-correction within the mammalian 6-layered neocortex., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

High suicide risk represents a serious problem in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), yet treatment options that could safely and rapidly ameliorate suicidal ideation remain elusive. Here, we tested the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of the Stanford Accelerated Intelligent Neuromodulation Therapy (SAINT) in reducing suicidal ideation in patients with MDD. Thirty-two MDD patients with moderate to severe suicidal ideation participated in the current study. Suicidal ideation and depression symptoms were assessed before and after 5 days of open-label SAINT. The neural pathways supporting rapid-acting antidepressant and suicide prevention effects were identified with dynamic causal modelling based on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found that 5 days of SAINT effectively alleviated suicidal ideation in patients with MDD with a high response rate of 65.63%. Moreover, the response rates achieved 78.13% and 90.63% with 2 weeks and 4 weeks after SAINT, respectively. In addition, we found that the suicide prevention effects of SAINT were associated with the effective connectivity involving the insula and hippocampus, while the antidepressant effects were related to connections of the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex (sgACC). These results show that SAINT is a rapid-acting and effective way to reduce suicidal ideation. Our findings further suggest that distinct neural mechanisms may contribute to the rapid-acting effects on the relief of suicidal ideation and depression, respectively., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

It is posited that cognitive and affective dysfunction in patients with major depression disorder (MDD) may be caused by dysfunctional signal propagation in the brain. By leveraging dynamic causal modeling, we investigated large-scale directed signal propagation (effective connectivity) among distributed large-scale brain networks with 43 MDD patients and 56 healthy controls. The results revealed the existence of two mutual inhibitory systems: the anterior default mode network, auditory network, sensorimotor network, salience network and visual networks formed an "emotional" brain, while the posterior default mode network, central executive networks, cerebellum and dorsal attention network formed a "rational brain". These two networks exhibited excitatory intra-system connectivity and inhibitory inter-system connectivity. Patients were characterized by potentiated intra-system connections within the "emotional/sensory brain", as well as over-inhibition of the "rational brain" by the "emotional/sensory brain". The hierarchical architecture of the large-scale effective connectivity networks was then analyzed using a PageRank algorithm which revealed a shift of the controlling role of the "rational brain" to the "emotional/sensory brain" in the patients. These findings inform basic organization of distributed large-scale brain networks and furnish a better characterization of the neural mechanisms of depression, which may facilitate effective treatment., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Interoception-the perception of internal bodily signals-has emerged as an area of interest due to its implications in emotion and the prevalence of dysfunctional interoceptive processes across psychopathological conditions. Despite the importance of interoception in cognitive neuroscience and psychiatry, its experimental manipulation remains technically challenging. This is due to the invasive nature of existing methods, the limitation of self-report and unimodal measures of interoception, and the absence of standardized approaches across disparate fields. This article integrates diverse research efforts from psychology, physiology, psychiatry, and engineering to address this oversight. Following a general introduction to the neurophysiology of interoception as hierarchical predictive processing, we review the existing paradigms for manipulating interoception (e.g., interoceptive modulation), their underlying mechanisms (e.g., interoceptive conditioning), and clinical applications (e.g., interoceptive exposure). We suggest a classification for interoceptive technologies and discuss their potential for diagnosing and treating mental health disorders. Despite promising results, considerable work is still needed to develop standardized, validated measures of interoceptive function across domains and before these technologies can translate safely and effectively to clinical settings., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This paper concerns the distributed intelligence or federated inference that emerges under belief-sharing among agents who share a common world-and world model. Imagine, for example, several animals keeping a lookout for predators. Their collective surveillance rests upon being able to communicate their beliefs-about what they see-among themselves. But, how is this possible? Here, we show how all the necessary components arise from minimising free energy. We use numerical studies to simulate the generation, acquisition and emergence of language in synthetic agents. Specifically, we consider inference, learning and selection as minimising the variational free energy of posterior (i.e., Bayesian) beliefs about the states, parameters and structure of generative models, respectively. The common theme-that attends these optimisation processes-is the selection of actions that minimise expected free energy, leading to active inference, learning and model selection (a.k.a., structure learning). We first illustrate the role of communication in resolving uncertainty about the latent states of a partially observed world, on which agents have complementary perspectives. We then consider the acquisition of the requisite language-entailed by a likelihood mapping from an agent's beliefs to their overt expression (e.g., speech)-showing that language can be transmitted across generations by active learning. Finally, we show that language is an emergent property of free energy minimisation, when agents operate within the same econiche. We conclude with a discussion of various perspectives on these phenomena; ranging from cultural niche construction, through federated learning, to the emergence of complexity in ensembles of self-organising systems., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Natural language syntax yields an unbounded array of hierarchically structured expressions. We claim that these are used in the service of active inference in accord with the free-energy principle (FEP). While conceptual advances alongside modelling and simulation work have attempted to connect speech segmentation and linguistic communication with the FEP, we extend this program to the underlying computations responsible for generating syntactic objects. We argue that recently proposed principles of economy in language design-such as "minimal search" criteria from theoretical syntax-adhere to the FEP. This affords a greater degree of explanatory power to the FEP-with respect to higher language functions-and offers linguistics a grounding in first principles with respect to computability. While we mostly focus on building new principled conceptual relations between syntax and the FEP, we also show through a sample of preliminary examples how both tree-geometric depth and a Kolmogorov complexity estimate (recruiting a Lempel-Ziv compression algorithm) can be used to accurately predict legal operations on syntactic workspaces, directly in line with formulations of variational free energy minimization. This is used to motivate a general principle of language design that we term Turing-Chomsky Compression (TCC). We use TCC to align concerns of linguists with the normative account of self-organization furnished by the FEP, by marshalling evidence from theoretical linguistics and psycholinguistics to ground core principles of efficient syntactic computation within active inference., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2024.)

We have investigated the theoretical constraints of the interactions between coupled cortical columns. Each cortical column consists of a set of neural populations where each population is modelled as a neural mass. The existence of semi-stable states within a cortical column is dependent on the type of interaction between the neuronal populations, i.e., the form of the synaptic kernels. Current-to-current coupling has been shown, in contrast to potential-to-current coupling, to create semi-stable states within a cortical column. The interaction between semi-stable states of the cortical columns is studied where we derive the dynamics for the collected activity. For small excitations the dynamics follow the Kuramoto model; however, in contrast to previous work we derive coupled equations between phase and amplitude dynamics with the possibility of defining connectivity as a stationary and dynamic variable. The turbulent flow of phase dynamics which occurs in networks of Kuramoto oscillators would indicate turbulent changes in dynamic connectivity for coupled cortical columns which is something that has been recorded in epileptic seizures. We used the results we derived to estimate a seizure propagation model which allowed for inversions using the Laplace assumption (Dynamic Causal Modelling). The seizure propagation model was trialed on simulated data, and future work will investigate the estimation of the connectivity matrix from empirical data. This model can be used to predict changes in seizure evolution after virtual changes in the connectivity network, something that could be of clinical use when applied to epilepsy surgical cases., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThere are no competing interests for any of the authors (GKC, RER, KJF)., (© Crown 2024.)

The immune system is a central component of organismic function in humans. This paper addresses self-organization of biological systems in relation to-and nested within-other biological systems in pregnancy. Pregnancy constitutes a fundamental state for human embodiment and a key step in the evolution and conservation of our species. While not all humans can be pregnant, our initial state of emerging and growing within another person's body is universal. Hence, the pregnant state does not concern some individuals but all individuals. Indeed, the hierarchical relationship in pregnancy reflects an even earlier autopoietic process in the embryo by which the number of individuals in a single blastoderm is dynamically determined by cell- interactions. The relationship and the interactions between the two self-organizing systems during pregnancy may play a pivotal role in understanding the nature of biological self-organization per se in humans. Specifically, we consider the role of the immune system in biological self-organization in addition to neural/brain systems that furnish us with a sense of self. We examine the complex case of pregnancy, whereby two immune systems need to negotiate the exchange of resources and information in order to maintain viable self-regulation of nested systems. We conclude with a proposal for the mechanisms-that scaffold the complex relationship between two self-organising systems in pregnancy-through the lens of the Active Inference, with a focus on shared Markov blankets., (© 2023 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.)

Bettinger, J. S., K. J. Friston. Conceptual Foundations of Physiological Regulation incorporating the Free Energy Principle & Self-Organized Criticality. NEUROSCI BIOBEHAV REV 23(x) 144-XXX, 2022. Since the late nineteen-nineties, the concept of homeostasis has been contextualized within a broader class of "allostatic" dynamics characterized by a wider-berth of causal factors including social, psychological and environmental entailments; the fundamental nature of integrated brain-body dynamics; plus the role of anticipatory, top-down constraints supplied by intrinsic regulatory models. Many of these evidentiary factors are integral in original descriptions of homeostasis; subsequently integrated; and/or cite more-general operating principles of self-organization. As a result, the concept of allostasis may be generalized to a larger category of variational systems in biology, engineering and physics in terms of advances in complex systems, statistical mechanics and dynamics involving heterogenous (hierarchical/heterarchical, modular) systems like brain-networks and the internal milieu. This paper offers a three-part treatment. 1) interpret "allostasis" to emphasize a variational and relational foundation of physiological stability; 2) adapt the role of allostasis as "stability through change" to include a "return to stability" and 3) reframe the model of homeostasis with a conceptual model of criticality that licenses the upgrade to variational dynamics., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no competing interests, (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This paper describes a path integral formulation of the free energy principle. The ensuing account expresses the paths or trajectories that a particle takes as it evolves over time. The main results are a method or principle of least action that can be used to emulate the behaviour of particles in open exchange with their external milieu. Particles are defined by a particular partition, in which internal states are individuated from external states by active and sensory blanket states. The variational principle at hand allows one to interpret internal dynamics-of certain kinds of particles-as inferring external states that are hidden behind blanket states. We consider different kinds of particles, and to what extent they can be imbued with an elementary form of inference or sentience. Specifically, we consider the distinction between dissipative and conservative particles, inert and active particles and, finally, ordinary and strange particles. Strange particles can be described as inferring their own actions, endowing them with apparent autonomy or agency. In short-of the kinds of particles afforded by a particular partition-strange kinds may be apt for describing sentient behaviour., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Mechanistic insight is achieved only when experiments are employed to test formal or computational models. Furthermore, in analogy to lesion studies, phantom perception may serve as a vehicle to understand the fundamental processing principles underlying healthy auditory perception. With a special focus on tinnitus-as the prime example of auditory phantom perception-we review recent work at the intersection of artificial intelligence, psychology and neuroscience. In particular, we discuss why everyone with tinnitus suffers from (at least hidden) hearing loss, but not everyone with hearing loss suffers from tinnitus. We argue that intrinsic neural noise is generated and amplified along the auditory pathway as a compensatory mechanism to restore normal hearing based on adaptive stochastic resonance. The neural noise increase can then be misinterpreted as auditory input and perceived as tinnitus. This mechanism can be formalized in the Bayesian brain framework, where the percept (posterior) assimilates a prior prediction (brain's expectations) and likelihood (bottom-up neural signal). A higher mean and lower variance (i.e. enhanced precision) of the likelihood shifts the posterior, evincing a misinterpretation of sensory evidence, which may be further confounded by plastic changes in the brain that underwrite prior predictions. Hence, two fundamental processing principles provide the most explanatory power for the emergence of auditory phantom perceptions: predictive coding as a top-down and adaptive stochastic resonance as a complementary bottom-up mechanism. We conclude that both principles also play a crucial role in healthy auditory perception. Finally, in the context of neuroscience-inspired artificial intelligence, both processing principles may serve to improve contemporary machine learning techniques., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain.)

Adversarial collaboration has been championed as the gold standard for resolving scientific disputes but has gained relatively limited traction in neuroscience and allied fields. In this perspective, we argue that adversarial collaborative research has been stymied by an overly restrictive concern with the falsification of scientific theories. We advocate instead for a more expansive view that frames adversarial collaboration in terms of Bayesian belief updating, model comparison, and evidence accumulation. This framework broadens the scope of adversarial collaboration to accommodate a wide range of informative (but not necessarily definitive) studies while affording the requisite formal tools to guide experimental design and data analysis in the adversarial setting. We provide worked examples that demonstrate how these tools can be deployed to score theoretical models in terms of a common metric of evidence, thereby furnishing a means of tracking the amount of empirical support garnered by competing theories over time., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Both classic and contemporary models of auditory word repetition involve at least four left hemisphere regions: primary auditory cortex for processing sounds; pSTS (within Wernicke's area) for processing auditory images of speech; pOp (within Broca's area) for processing motor images of speech; and primary motor cortex for overt speech articulation. Previous functional-MRI (fMRI) studies confirm that auditory repetition activates these regions, in addition to many others. Crucially, however, contemporary models do not specify how regions interact and drive each other during auditory repetition. Here, we used dynamic causal modelling, to test the functional interplay among the four core brain regions during single auditory word and pseudoword repetition. Our analysis is grounded in the principle of degeneracy-i.e., many-to-one structure-function relationships-where multiple neural pathways can execute the same function. Contrary to expectation, we found that, for both word and pseudoword repetition, (i) the effective connectivity between pSTS and pOp was predominantly bidirectional and inhibitory; (ii) activity in the motor cortex could be driven by either pSTS or pOp; and (iii) the latter varied both within and between individuals. These results suggest that different neural pathways can support auditory speech repetition. This degeneracy may explain resilience to functional loss after brain damage., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Selective attention implements preferential routing of attended stimuli, likely through increasing the influence of the respective synaptic inputs on higher-area neurons. As the inputs of competing stimuli converge onto postsynaptic neurons, presynaptic circuits might offer the best target for attentional top-down influences. If those influences enabled presynaptic circuits to selectively entrain postsynaptic neurons, this might explain selective routing. Indeed, when two visual stimuli induce two gamma rhythms in V1, only the gamma induced by the attended stimulus entrains gamma in V4. Here, we modelled induced responses with a Dynamic Causal Model for Cross-Spectral Densities and found that selective entrainment can be explained by attentional modulation of intrinsic V1 connections. Specifically, local inhibition was decreased in the granular input layer and increased in the supragranular output layer of the V1 circuit that processed the attended stimulus. Thus, presynaptic attentional influences and ensuing entrainment were sufficient to mediate selective routing., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest P.F. has a patent on thin-film electrodes and is beneficiary of a respective license contract with Blackrock Microsystems LLC (Salt Lake City, UT, USA). P.F. is a member of the Advisory Board of CorTec GmbH (Freiburg, Germany)., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

The definition of a brain state remains elusive, with varying interpretations across different sub-fields of neuroscience-from the level of wakefulness in anaesthesia, to activity of individual neurons, voltage in EEG, and blood flow in fMRI. This lack of consensus presents a significant challenge to the development of accurate models of neural dynamics. However, at the foundation of dynamical systems theory lies a definition of what constitutes the 'state' of a system-i.e., a specification of the system's future. Here, we propose to adopt this definition to establish brain states in neuroimaging timeseries by applying Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) to low-dimensional embedding of resting and task condition fMRI data. We find that ~90% of subjects in resting conditions are better described by first-order models, whereas ~55% of subjects in task conditions are better described by second-order models. Our work calls into question the status quo of using first-order equations almost exclusively within computational neuroscience and provides a new way of establishing brain states, as well as their associated phase space representations, in neuroimaging datasets., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: © 2023 Dezhina et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

For a growing number of researchers, it is now accepted that the brain is a predictive organ that predicts the content of the sensorium and crucially the precision of-or confidence in-its own predictions. In order to predict the precision of its predictions, the brain has to infer the reliability of its own beliefs. This means that our brains have to recognise the precision of their predictions or, at least, their accuracy. In this paper, we argue that fluency is product of this recognition process. In short, to recognise fluency is to infer that we have a precise 'grip' on the unfolding processes that generate our sensations. More specifically, we propose that it is changes in fluency - from unfelt to felt - that are both recognised and realised when updating predictions about precision. Unfelt fluency orients attention to unpredicted sensations, while felt fluency supervenes on-and contextualises-unfelt fluency; thereby rendering certain attentional processes, phenomenologically opaque. As such, fluency underwrites the precision we place in our predictions and therefore acts upon our perceptual inferences. Hence, the causes of conscious subjective inference have unconscious perceptual precursors., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

This article details a scheme for approximate Bayesian inference, which has underpinned thousands of neuroimaging studies since its introduction 15 years ago. Variational Laplace (VL) provides a generic approach to fitting linear or non-linear models, which may be static or dynamic, returning a posterior probability density over the model parameters and an approximation of log model evidence, which enables Bayesian model comparison. VL applies variational Bayesian inference in conjunction with quadratic or Laplace approximations of the evidence lower bound (free energy). Importantly, update equations do not need to be derived for each model under consideration, providing a general method for fitting a broad class of models. This primer is intended for experimenters and modellers who may wish to fit models to data using variational Bayesian methods, without assuming previous experience of variational Bayes or machine learning. Accompanying code demonstrates how to fit different kinds of model using the reference implementation of the VL scheme in the open-source Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software package. In addition, we provide a standalone software function that does not require SPM, in order to ease translation to other fields, together with detailed pseudocode. Finally, the supplementary materials provide worked derivations of the key equations., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Introduction: Illness course plays a crucial role in delineating psychiatric disorders. However, existing nosologies consider only its most basic features (e.g., symptom sequence, duration). We developed a Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) that characterizes course patterns more fully using dense timeseries data. This foundational study introduces the new modeling approach and evaluates its validity using empirical and simulated data., Methods: A three-level DCM was constructed to model how latent dynamics produce symptoms of depression, mania, and psychosis. This model was fit to symptom scores of nine patients collected prospectively over four years, following first hospitalization. Simulated subjects based on these empirical data were used to evaluate model parameters at the subject-level. At the group-level, we tested the accuracy with which the DCM can estimate the latent course patterns using Parametric Empirical Bayes (PEB) and leave-one-out cross-validation., Results: Analyses of empirical data showed that DCM accurately captured symptom trajectories for all nine subjects. Simulation results showed that parameters could be estimated accurately (correlations between generative and estimated parameters >= 0.76). Moreover, the model could distinguish different latent course patterns, with PEB correctly assigning simulated patients for eight of nine course patterns. When testing any pair of two specific course patterns using leave-one-out cross-validation, 30 out of 36 pairs showed a moderate or high out-of-samples correlation between the true group-membership and the estimated group-membership values., Conclusion: DCM has been widely used in neuroscience to infer latent neuronal processes from neuroimaging data. Our findings highlight the potential of adopting this methodology for modeling symptom trajectories to explicate nosologic entities, temporal patterns that define them, and facilitate personalized treatment., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s).)

Existing whole-brain models are generally tailored to the modelling of a particular data modality (e.g., fMRI or MEG/EEG). We propose that despite the differing aspects of neural activity each modality captures, they originate from shared network dynamics. Building on the universal principles of self-organising delay-coupled nonlinear systems, we aim to link distinct features of brain activity - captured across modalities - to the dynamics unfolding on a macroscopic structural connectome. To jointly predict connectivity, spatiotemporal and transient features of distinct signal modalities, we consider two large-scale models - the Stuart Landau and Wilson and Cowan models - which generate short-lived 40 Hz oscillations with varying levels of realism. To this end, we measure features of functional connectivity and metastable oscillatory modes (MOMs) in fMRI and MEG signals - and compare them against simulated data. We show that both models can represent MEG functional connectivity (FC), functional connectivity dynamics (FCD) and generate MOMs to a comparable degree. This is achieved by adjusting the global coupling and mean conduction time delay and, in the WC model, through the inclusion of balance between excitation and inhibition. For both models, the omission of delays dramatically decreased the performance. For fMRI, the SL model performed worse for FCD and MOMs, highlighting the importance of balanced dynamics for the emergence of spatiotemporal and transient patterns of ultra-slow dynamics. Notably, optimal working points varied across modalities and no model was able to achieve a correlation with empirical FC higher than 0.4 across modalities for the same set of parameters. Nonetheless, both displayed the emergence of FC patterns that extended beyond the constraints of the anatomical structure. Finally, we show that both models can generate MOMs with empirical-like properties such as size (number of brain regions engaging in a mode) and duration (continuous time interval during which a mode appears). Our results demonstrate the emergence of static and dynamic properties of neural activity at different timescales from networks of delay-coupled oscillators at 40 Hz. Given the higher dependence of simulated FC on the underlying structural connectivity, we suggest that mesoscale heterogeneities in neural circuitry may be critical for the emergence of parallel cross-modal functional networks and should be accounted for in future modelling endeavours., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Authors declare that they have no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Learning to self-regulate brain activity by neurofeedback has been shown to lead to changes in the brain and behavior, with beneficial clinical and non-clinical outcomes. Neurofeedback uses a brain-computer interface to guide participants to change some feature of their brain activity. However, the neural mechanism of self-regulation learning remains unclear, with only 50% of the participants succeeding in achieving it. To bridge this knowledge gap, our study delves into the neural mechanisms of self-regulation learning via neurofeedback and investigates the brain processes associated with successful brain self-regulation., Methods: We study the neural underpinnings of self-regulation learning by employing dynamical causal modeling (DCM) in conjunction with real-time functional MRI data. The study involved a cohort of 18 participants undergoing neurofeedback training targeting the supplementary motor area. A critical focus was the comparison between top-down hierarchical connectivity models proposed by Active Inference and alternative bottom-up connectivity models like reinforcement learning., Results: Our analysis revealed a crucial distinction in brain connectivity patterns between successful and non-successful learners. Particularly, successful learners evinced a significantly stronger top-down effective connectivity towards the target area implicated in self-regulation. This heightened top-down network engagement closely resembles the patterns observed in goal-oriented and cognitive control studies, shedding light on the intricate cognitive processes intertwined with self-regulation learning., Discussion: The findings from our investigation underscore the significance of cognitive mechanisms in the process of self-regulation learning through neurofeedback. The observed stronger top-down effective connectivity in successful learners indicates the involvement of hierarchical cognitive control, which aligns with the tenets of Active Inference. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the neural dynamics behind successful self-regulation learning and provides insights into the potential cognitive architecture underpinning this process., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Vargas, Araya, Sepulveda, Rodriguez-Fernandez, Friston, Sitaram and El-Deredy.)

Social neuroscience has often been criticized for approaching the investigation of the neural processes that enable social interaction and cognition from a passive, detached, third-person perspective, without involving any real-time social interaction. With the emergence of second-person neuroscience , investigators have uncovered the unique complexity of neural-activation patterns in actual, real-time interaction. Social cognition that occurs during social interaction is fundamentally different from that unfolding during social observation. However, it remains unclear how the neural correlates of social interaction are to be interpreted. Here, we leverage the active-inference framework to shed light on the mechanisms at play during social interaction in second-person neuroscience studies. Specifically, we show how counterfactually rich mutual predictions, real-time bodily adaptation, and policy selection explain activation in components of the default mode, salience, and frontoparietal networks of the brain, as well as in the basal ganglia. We further argue that these processes constitute the crucial neural processes that underwrite bona fide social interaction. By placing the experimental approach of second-person neuroscience on the theoretical foundation of the active-inference framework, we inform the field of social neuroscience about the mechanisms of real-life interactions. We thereby contribute to the theoretical foundations of empirical second-person neuroscience.

Empirical applications of the free-energy principle are not straightforward because they entail a commitment to a particular process theory, especially at the cellular and synaptic levels. Using a recently established reverse engineering technique, we confirm the quantitative predictions of the free-energy principle using in vitro networks of rat cortical neurons that perform causal inference. Upon receiving electrical stimuli-generated by mixing two hidden sources-neurons self-organised to selectively encode the two sources. Pharmacological up- and downregulation of network excitability disrupted the ensuing inference, consistent with changes in prior beliefs about hidden sources. As predicted, changes in effective synaptic connectivity reduced variational free energy, where the connection strengths encoded parameters of the generative model. In short, we show that variational free energy minimisation can quantitatively predict the self-organisation of neuronal networks, in terms of their responses and plasticity. These results demonstrate the applicability of the free-energy principle to in vitro neural networks and establish its predictive validity in this setting., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

We present a hierarchical empirical Bayesian framework for testing hypotheses about neurotransmitters' concertation as empirical prior for synaptic physiology using ultra-high field magnetic resonance spectroscopy (7T-MRS) and magnetoencephalography data (MEG). A first level dynamic causal modelling of cortical microcircuits is used to infer the connectivity parameters of a generative model of individuals' neurophysiological observations. At the second level, individuals' 7T-MRS estimates of regional neurotransmitter concentration supply empirical priors on synaptic connectivity. We compare the group-wise evidence for alternative empirical priors, defined by monotonic functions of spectroscopic estimates, on subsets of synaptic connections. For efficiency and reproducibility, we used Bayesian model reduction (BMR), parametric empirical Bayes and variational Bayesian inversion. In particular, we used Bayesian model reduction to compare alternative model evidence of how spectroscopic neurotransmitter measures inform estimates of synaptic connectivity. This identifies the subset of synaptic connections that are influenced by individual differences in neurotransmitter levels, as measured by 7T-MRS. We demonstrate the method using resting-state MEG (i.e., task-free recording) and 7T-MRS data from healthy adults. Our results confirm the hypotheses that GABA concentration influences local recurrent inhibitory intrinsic connectivity in deep and superficial cortical layers, while glutamate influences the excitatory connections between superficial and deep layers and connections from superficial to inhibitory interneurons. Using within-subject split-sampling of the MEG dataset (i.e., validation by means of a held-out dataset), we show that model comparison for hypothesis testing can be highly reliable. The method is suitable for applications with magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography, and is well-suited to reveal the mechanisms of neurological and psychiatric disorders, including responses to psychopharmacological interventions., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The author declares no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)