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Aviation emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) alter the composition of the atmosphere, perturbing the greenhouse gases ozone and methane, resulting in positive and negative radiative forcing effects, respectively. In 1981, the International Civil Aviation Organization adopted a first certification standard for the regulation of aircraft engine NO x emissions with subsequent increases in stringency in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010 to offset the growth of the environmental impact of air transport, the main motivation being to improve local air quality with the assumed co-benefit of reducing NO x emissions at altitude and therefore their climate impacts. Increased stringency is an ongoing topic of discussion and more stringent standards are usually associated with their beneficial environmental impact. Here we show that this is not necessarily the right direction with respect to reducing the climate impacts of aviation (as opposed to local air quality impacts) because of the tradeoff effects between reducing NO x emissions and increased fuel usage, along with a revised understanding of the radiative forcing effects of methane. Moreover, the predicted lower surface air pollution levels in the future will be beneficial for reducing the climate impact of aviation NO x emissions. Thus, further efforts leading to greater fuel efficiency, and therefore lower CO 2 emissions, may be preferable to reducing NO x emissions in terms of aviation's climate impacts.

Aviation emits pollutants that affect the climate, including CO 2 and NO x , NO x indirectly so, through the formation of tropospheric ozone and reduction of ambient methane. To improve the fuel performance of engines, combustor temperatures and pressures often increase, increasing NO x emissions. Conversely, combustor modifications to reduce NO x may increase CO 2 . Hence, a technology trade-off exists, which also translates to a trade-off between short-lived climate forcers and a long-lived greenhouse gas, CO 2 . Moreover, the NO x -O 3 -CH 4 system responds in a nonlinear manner, according to both aviation emissions and background NO x . A simple climate model was modified to incorporate nonlinearities parametrized from a complex chemistry model. Case studies showed that for a scenario of a 20% reduction in NO x emissions the consequential CO 2 penalty of 2% actually increased the total radiative forcing (RF). For a 2% fuel penalty, NO x emissions needed to be reduced by >43% to realize an overall benefit. Conversely, to ensure that the fuel penalty for a 20% NO x emission reduction did not increase overall forcing, a 0.5% increase in CO 2 was found to be the "break even" point. The time scales of the climate effects of NO x and CO 2 are quite different, necessitating careful analysis of proposed emissions trade-offs.

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr -1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m -2 (23-87 mW m -2 , 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m -2 (38-139 mW m -2 , 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO 2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level., (Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)