1. Assessing the heterogeneity of the impact of COVID-19 incidence on all-cause excess mortality among healthcare districts in Lombardy, Italy, to evaluate the local response to the pandemic: an ecological study.
- Author
-
Paganuzzi M, Nattino G, Ghilardi GI, Costantino G, Rossi C, Cortellaro F, Cosentini R, Paglia S, Migliori M, Mira A, and Bertolini G
- Subjects
- Humans, Pandemics, Retrospective Studies, Incidence, Italy epidemiology, Mortality, COVID-19 epidemiology
- Abstract
Objectives: The fragmentation of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic at national, regional and local levels is a possible source of variability in the impact of the pandemic on society. This study aims to assess how much of this variability affected the burden of COVID-19, measured in terms of all-cause 2020 excess mortality., Design: Ecological retrospective study., Setting: Lombardy region of Italy, 2015-2020., Outcome Measures: We evaluated the relationship between the intensity of the epidemics and excess mortality, assessing the heterogeneity of this relationship across the 91 districts after adjusting for relevant confounders., Results: The epidemic intensity was quantified as the COVID-19 hospitalisations per 1000 inhabitants. Five confounders were identified through a directed acyclic graph: age distribution, population density, pro-capita gross domestic product, restriction policy and population mobility.Analyses were based on a negative binomial regression model with district-specific random effects. We found a strong, positive association between COVID-19 hospitalisations and 2020 excess mortality (p<0.001), estimating that an increase of one hospitalised COVID-19 patient per 1000 inhabitants resulted in a 15.5% increase in excess mortality. After adjusting for confounders, no district differed in terms of COVID-19-unrelated excess mortality from the average district. Minimal heterogeneity emerged in the district-specific relationships between COVID-19 hospitalisations and excess mortality (6 confidence intervals out of 91 did not cover the null value)., Conclusions: The homogeneous effect of the COVID-19 spread on the excess mortality in the Lombardy districts suggests that, despite the unprecedented conditions, the pandemic reactions did not result in health disparities in the region., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF