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Data and code from Earth's Future publication titled: ''Geophysical Uncertainties in Air Pollution Exposure and Benefits of Emissions Reductions for Global Health''. Multiply the PM scaler for each 5-year time slice by the CMIP6 gridded PM data to 'debias' the 0.5 degree CMIP6 data as described in the main text methods.The new version of this upload includes the 'adjusted' (debiased) CMIP6 5-year mean PM2.5 saved as netcdf files (zipped all together by ssp: ssp126 or ssp370). Abstract Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution is associated with large-scale health consequences, but the geophysical uncertainties in estimates of PM2.5-related global premature mortality remain understudied. Using four observation-based PM2.5 datasets and six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models, we compare uncertainties in current PM2.5-related mortality estimates based on model/observation combinations to the uncertainties associated with projected emissions reductions and the resulting impacts on global health. Although estimates of current mortality are sensitive to the PM2.5 dataset (6.54 to 9.23 million/year using the central estimate from the Global Exposure Mortality Model), the projected near-term and long-term benefits of emissions reductions for reduced mortality are much more certain. Specifically, uncertainties in projected avoided deaths are consistently less than half the magnitude of uncertainties in current mortality estimates. Under a low-emissions scenario, avoided cumulative deaths would exceed a quarter-billion by 2100.

Python code and datasets to plot figures from manuscript. Abstract Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change but emits a small portion of global greenhouse gases. Additionally, decarbonization might lead to a ‘climate penalty’ whereby reductions in cooling aerosols offset temperature benefits from CO2 reductions for several decades. However, climate change impacts conditions other than temperatures, including precipitation. Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model, we find that although African emissions cuts have weak impacts on projected African temperatures, they significantly impact rainfall. Whereas business-as-usual increasing emissions lead to substantial drying over tropical Northern Africa during local summer, that drying is essentially eliminated under a sustainable development pathway. The reduction in cooling aerosols is responsible for ~33-90% of the avoided drying in our model, with the remainder largely attributable to reduced absorbing aerosols. African policy choices may therefore greatly reduce regional African summer drying, giving parts of Africa substantial leverage over their own climate and air quality future.

Python code and data files necessary to make figures and conduct statistical tests from this manuscript. Abstract As the globe warms, people will increasingly need affordable, safe methods to stay cool and minimize the worst health impacts of heat exposure. One of the cheapest cooling methods is electric fans. Recent research has recommended ambient air temperature thresholds for safe fan use in adults. Here we use hourly weather reanalysis data (1950-2021) to examine the temporal and spatial evolution of ambient climate conditions in the continental United States (CONUS) considered safe for fan use, focusing on high social vulnerability index (SVI) regions. We find that although most hours in the day are safe for fan use, there are regions that experience hundreds to thousands of hours per year that are too hot for safe fan use. Over the last several decades, the number of hours considered unsafe for fan use has increased across most of the CONUS (on average by ~70%), with hotspots across the US West and South, suggesting that many individuals will increasingly need alternative cooling strategies. People living in high-SVI locations are 1.5-2 times more likely to experience hotter climate conditions than the overall US population. High-SVI locations also experience higher rates of warming that are approaching and exceeding important safety thresholds that relate to climate adaptation. These results highlight the need to direct additional resources to these communities for heat adaptive strategies.