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Additional file 5: Figure S5. Heat maps for (A) impact and (B) overtreatment with Primaquine in a real-life scenario after 1, 2 or 3 rounds of PvSeroTAT and under two transmission pressures.

Additional file 4: Figure S4. ROC surfaces for (A) impact and (B) overtreatment with Primaquine administered in a high-efficacy scenario after 1, 2 or 3 rounds of PvSeroTAT and under two transmission pressures.

Additional file 2: Table S2. Public health impact and overtreatment modeled in a moderate transmission setting (qPCR prevalence ~10%). Impact was defined as the reduction in qPCR prevalence observed six months after the last round of intervention; overtreatment corresponded to the administration of a hypnozoiticidal drug to a person whose last blood-stage infection occurred more than 9 months ago. The ���Best-case���, ���High efficacy��� and ���Real-life��� scenario correspond to those described in the main text, with decreasing adherence, efficacy and eligibility.

Additional file 3: Figure S3. Heat maps for (A) impact and (B) overtreatment with an optimal hypnozoiticidal drug as defined by the ���best-case��� scenario and after 1, 2 or 3 rounds of PvSeroTAT and under two transmission pressures.

Additional file 1: Figure S1. Modeled P. vivax qPCR prevalence with various implementations of public health interventions in an endemic situation of moderate transmission. The columns correspond to the different scenarios and rows to the number of intervention rounds, with grey area presenting time of evaluation.

Robust surveillance methods are needed for trachoma control and recrudescence monitoring, but existing methods have limitations. Here, we analyse data from nine trachoma-endemic populations and provide operational thresholds for interpretation of serological data in low-transmission and post-elimination settings. Analyses with sero-catalytic and antibody acquisition models provide insights into transmission history within each population. To accurately estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR) for trachoma in populations with high-seroprevalence in adults, the model accounts for secondary exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis due to urogenital infection. We estimate the population half-life of sero-reversion for anti-Pgp3 antibodies to be 26 (95% credible interval (CrI): 21–34) years. We show SCRs below 0.015 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0–0.049) per year correspond to a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular below 5%, the current threshold for elimination of active trachoma as a public health problem. As global trachoma prevalence declines, we may need cross-sectional serological survey data to inform programmatic decisions., Robust surveillance methods are needed for trachoma control and recrudescence monitoring, but existing methods have limitations. Here, Pinsent et al. analyse data from nine trachoma-endemic populations and provide operational thresholds for interpretation of serological data in low transmission and post-elimination settings.

Background Antibody responses as serological markers of Plasmodium vivax infection have been shown to correlate with exposure, but little is known about the other factors that affect antibody responses in naturally infected people from endemic settings. To address this question, we studied IgG responses to novel serological exposure markers (SEMs) of P. vivax in three settings with different transmission intensity. Methodology We validated a panel of 34 SEMs in a Peruvian cohort with up to three years’ longitudinal follow-up using a multiplex platform and compared results to data from cohorts in Thailand and Brazil. Linear regression models were used to characterize the association between antibody responses and age, the number of detected blood-stage infections during follow-up, and time since previous infection. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to test the performance of SEMs to identify P. vivax infections in the previous 9 months. Principal findings Antibody titers were associated with age, the number of blood-stage infections, and time since previous P. vivax infection in all three study sites. The association between antibody titers and time since previous P. vivax infection was stronger in the low transmission settings of Thailand and Brazil compared to the higher transmission setting in Peru. Of the SEMs tested, antibody responses to RBP2b had the highest performance for classifying recent exposure in all sites, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.83 in Thailand, AUC = 0.79 in Brazil, and AUC = 0.68 in Peru. Conclusions In low transmission settings, P. vivax SEMs can accurately identify individuals with recent blood-stage infections. In higher transmission settings, the accuracy of this approach diminishes substantially. We recommend using P. vivax SEMs in low transmission settings pursuing malaria elimination, but they are likely to be less effective in high transmission settings focused on malaria control., Author summary Plasmodium vivax still poses a threat in many countries due to its ability to cause recurrent infections. Key to achieving the goal of malaria elimination is the ability to quickly detect and treat carriers of relapsing parasites. Failing to identify this transmission reservoir will hinder progress towards malaria elimination. Recently, novel serological markers of recent exposure to P. vivax (SEM) have been developed and validated in low transmission settings. It is still poorly understood what factors affect the antibody response to these markers when evaluated in contrasting endemic contexts. To determine the factors that influence the antibody response to SEM, we compared the antibody levels in three sites with different transmission intensity: Thailand (low), Brazil (moderate) and Peru (high). In this study, we found that transmission intensity plays a key role in the acquisition of the antibody repertoire to P. vivax. In highly endemic sites, it is likely that immunological memory resulting from a constant and sustained exposure will impact the performance of SEMs to detect individuals with recent exposure to P. vivax. In summary, SEMs that perform well in low transmission sites do not perform as well in high transmission regions.

Additional file 1: S1 Text. Supplementary method and results.

Background: The scale-up of effective malaria control in the last decade has resulted in a substantial decline in the incidence of clinical malaria in many countries. The effects on the proportions of asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections, and on transmission potential are yet poorly understood. Methods: In Papua New Guinea, vector control has been intensified since 2008, and improved diagnosis and treatment introduced in 2012. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Madang Province in 2006 (n=1280), 2010 (n=2117) and 2014 (n=2516). Infections were quantified by highly sensitive qPCR and gametocytes by RT-qPCR. Results: P. falciparum prevalence by qPCR decreased from 42% in 2006 to 9% in 2014. P. vivax prevalence decreased from 42% in 2006 to 13% in 2010, but then increased to 20% in 2014. Parasite densities decreased 5-fold from 2006 to 2010; 72% of P. falciparum and 87% of P. vivax infections were submicroscopic in 2014. Gametocyte density and positivity correlated closely with parasitemia, and population gametocyte prevalence decreased 3-fold for P. falciparum and 29% for P. vivax from 2010 to 2014. Conclusions: Sustained control has resulted in reduced transmission potential but an increasing proportion of gametocyte carriers are asymptomatic and submicroscopic and represent a challenge to malaria control.

The continued success of efforts to reduce the global malaria burden will require sustained funding for interventions specifically targeting Plasmodium vivax The optimal use of limited financial resources necessitates cost and cost-effectiveness analyses of strategies for diagnosing and treating P. vivax and vector control tools. Herein, we review the existing published evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions for controlling P. vivax, identifying nine studies focused on diagnosis and treatment and seven studies focused on vector control. Although many of the results from the much more extensive P. falciparum literature can be applied to P. vivax, it is not always possible to extrapolate results from P. falciparum-specific cost-effectiveness analyses. Notably, there is a need for additional studies to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of radical cure with primaquine for the prevention of P. vivax relapses with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase testing.

The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine effi cacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014. Using data from 8922 African children aged 5 1317 months and 6537 African infants aged 6 1312 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time. RTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5 1317 months than in those aged 6 1312 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6 1312 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5 1317 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5 1317 months, the half-life of the shortlived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42 1348) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557 13632). After primary vaccination 12% (11 1313) of the response was estimated to be longlived, rising to 30% (28 1332%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98 13153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of effi cacy against clinical malaria across diff erent age categories and transmission intensities, and effi cacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 effi cacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of eff ectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered.

SummaryBackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine efficacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014.MethodsUsing data from 8922 African children aged 5–17 months and 6537 African infants aged 6–12 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time.FindingsRTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5–17 months than in those aged 6–12 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6–12 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5–17 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5–17 months, the half-life of the short-lived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42–48) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557–632). After primary vaccination 12% (11–13) of the response was estimated to be long-lived, rising to 30% (28–32%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98–153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of efficacy against clinical malaria across different age categories and transmission intensities, and efficacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity.InterpretationAnti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).