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Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO2 concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future risk for droughts and water shortages calls for substantial efforts by authorities to adapt at local levels. Understanding their perception of drought hazards, risk and vulnerability can help to identify drivers of and barriers to drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level. This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary drought case study in Sweden that integrates soft data from a nationwide survey among more than 100 local practitioners and hard data based on hydrological measurements to provide a holistic assessment of the links between drought severity and the perceived levels of drought severity, impacts, preparedness, and management for two consecutive drought events. The paper highlights challenges for drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level and elaborates on how improved understanding of local practitioners to plan for climate change adaptation can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-Based Solutions concepts and practices are being used worldwide as part of attempts to address societal challenges but have also been criticised for not dealing with deeper transformations needed to face urgent issues including biodiversity loss, climate change and inclusion. In this paper, we explore how an inclusive, integrated and long-sighted approach, emphasising a more radical integration of nature within cities, might support the transformations needed to endure major contemporary challenges. Addressing important emerging critiques of Nature-Based Solutions, we consider the potential of a more incisive form of Nature-Based Thinking (NBT) in cities, based on more holistic perspectives. The paper draws on a reflective and iterative research process that engaged both the research and practice communities through a symposium and a series of futures workshops that together explored the potential of NBT to develop future nature-cities relations in Europe and Latin America. The results of the reflective process suggest that notions of nature with people—not for people— new organisational structures, and the intention and capacity to apply long-term perspectives, are needed when planning for NBS interventions aimed at sustainable urban development. This includes developing a cultural-structural change based on new and inclusive understandings of human–nature relations, and novel governance paradigms that allow cross-sectoral coordination and engagement of local stakeholders beyond formal organisational structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The challenges posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-use are deeply interconnected and integrated solutions are needed. This paper presents results from 11 contributions to a special issue covering topics of integrated modeling and spatial prioritization, mass-balance studies, Earth Observation techniques, research infrastructure developments, and evaluation of policy measures and economic compensation schemes. The spatial scale of the studies ranges from detailed site-specific to a European scale. This paper briefly summarizes the main findings of these studies, makes some general overall conclusions, and identifies topics for further research and methods developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AI chatbots such as ChatGPT help people produce texts. According to media reporting, these texts are also used for educational purposes. Thus, AI influences people's knowledge and perception of current issues. This paper examines the narrative of ChatGPT's stories on climate change. Our explorative analysis reveals that ChatGPT's stories on climate change show a relatively uniform structure and similar content. Generally, the narrative is in line with scientific knowledge on climate change; the stories convey no significant misinformation. However, specific topics in current debates on global warming are conspicuously missing. According to the ChatGPT narrative, humans as a species are responsible for climate change and specific economic activities or actors associated with carbon emissions play no role. Analogously, the social structuration of vulnerability to climate impacts and issues of climate justice are hardly addressed. ChatGPT's narrative consists of de-politicized stories that are highly optimistic about technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eutrophication, i.e. nutrient over-enrichment, has been a topic for academic and societal debate for the past five decades both on land and in aquatic systems fed by nutrients as diffuse loading from agricultural lands and as wastewater from industrial and municipal point-sources. The use of nutrients (primarily nitrogen and phosphorus) in excess became a problem with the onset of large-scale production and use of artificial fertilizers after World War II, and the effects on the aquatic environment became obvious some two to three decades later. In this Perspective, four seminal papers on eutrophication are discussed in light of the current knowledge of the problem, including future perspectives and outlooks in the light of global climate change and the demand for science-based holistic ecosystem-level policies and management options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is rapidly warming posing a significant threat to underlying permafrost. Permafrost degradation has already resulted in extensive damage to the Arctic's built infrastructure, putting communities and industries at risk. Projected climate warming will further reduce the capacity of permafrost to support infrastructure, thereby requiring a rethinking of construction and development of permafrost regions in the future. This paper focuses on three Arctic regions with a substantial presence of population and infrastructure on permafrost: USA (Alaska), Canada, and Russia. The three regions' permafrost construction practices are examined in order to identify best practices and major gaps. We identify a lack of standardized, codified construction guidelines; an absence of permafrost-geotechnical monitoring in communities; barriers to integrating climate scenarios into future planning; limited data sharing; and low numbers of permafrost professionals as major constraints limiting the region's resilience in the face of climate change. Refining building practices and standards, implementing operational permafrost monitoring systems, developing downscaled climate projections, and integrating local knowledge will minimize the impacts of permafrost degradation under rapidly warming climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are integral to efforts to keep global warming below 2°C in accordance with the United Nations' 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Yet the transboundary governance dimensions of NbS remain unclear and largely undocumented. In Southeast Asia, NbS have emphasised the conservation and/ or sustainable commodification of carbon sinks found in terrestrial and mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, peatlands and agricultural soils. Mostly project-driven and fixed-term, these "solutions" have often failed to meet their social and ecological objectives. Increasingly, they have added to cross-border problems of: (1) displaced carbon emissions; and (2) economic migration and societal dispossession. This perspective paper delineates a transboundary governance research agenda to mitigate these trade-offs and enhance the co-benefits of NbS in carbon sinks. Building on NbS literature, it identifies cross-sector, multi-scalar and interdisciplinary pathways to improve transboundary cooperation, inclusion and equity in carbon sink governance in varying Southeast Asian contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this special issue is to offer a room for interdisciplinary and engaged research in global environmental change (GEC), where gender plays a key role in building resilience and adaptation pathways. In this editorial paper, we explain the background setting, key questions and core approaches of gender and feminist research in vulnerability, resilience and adaptation to GEC. Highlighting the interlinkages between gender and GEC, we introduce the main contributions of the collection of 11 papers in this special issue. Nine empirical papers from around the globe allow to understand how gendered diversity in knowledge, institutions and everyday practices matters in producing barriers and options for achieving resilience and adaptive capacity in societies. Additionally, two papers contribute to the theoretical debate through a systematic review and an insight on the relevance of intersectional framings within GEC research and development programming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results from these and other research efforts are used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to regularly publish state-of-the-art climate change updates, such as the recent special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (IPCC [14]). Theme: Climate change impacts At the frontier of climate change: Red alert from the European Alps, the Arctic and coral reefs: This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. The effects of climate change are also evident in coral reefs around the world, where rising sea surface temperatures cause increasingly frequent and damaging bleaching events (Goreau and Hayes [8]). [Extracted from the article]

The interplay of climate change, upstream hydropower development, and local water engineering interventions for agricultural production contributes substantially to the transformation of waterscapes and water scarcity in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. This paper aims to examine how these dynamics are linked to the paradigm shift in water management in An Giang and Ben Tre, the two ecologically distinct provinces that face serious water scarcity in the delta. We used the adaptive management concept to examine how state-led policy directions from food security towards water security enable change in water management that gives priority to water retention. While policy learning is evident, questions remain about how this ad-hoc solution could help address the presently acute water scarcity and water security over the long term. The paper advocates achieving water security should focus not only on diplomatic interventions into upstream climate-development complexities but also local water-livelihood politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human societies derive economic benefit from marine systems, yet these benefits may be modified as humans drive environmental change. Here, we conducted the first systematic review of literature on the potential economic effects of ocean acidification. We identified that while there is a growing literature discussing this topic, assessments of the direction and magnitude of anticipated economic change remain limited. The few assessments which have been conducted indicate largely negative economic effects of ocean acidification. Insights are, however, limited as the scope of the studies remains restricted. We propose that understanding of this topic will benefit from using standard approaches (e.g. timescales and emissions scenarios) to consider an increasing range of species/habitats and ecosystem services over a range of spatial scales. The resulting understanding could inform decisions such that we maintain, or enhance, economic services obtained from future marine environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crises that cities face—such as climate change, pandemics, economic downturn, and racism—are tightly interlinked and cannot be addressed in isolation. This paper addresses compound urban crises as a unique type of problem, in which discrete solutions that tackle each crisis independently are insufficient. Few scholarly debates address compound urban crises and there is, to date, a lack of interdisciplinary insights to inform urban governance responses. Combining ideas from complex adaptive systems and critical urban studies, we develop a set of boundary concepts (unsettlement, unevenness, and unbounding) to understand the complexities of compound urban crises from an interdisciplinary perspective. We employ these concepts to set a research agenda on compound urban crises, highlighting multiple interconnections between urban politics and global dynamics. We conclude by suggesting how these entry points provide a theoretical anchor to develop practical insights to inform and reform urban governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based solutions (NBS) were introduced as integrated, multifunctional and multi-beneficial solutions to a wide array of socio-ecological challenges. Although principles for a common understanding and implementation of NBS were already developed on a landscape scale, specific principles are needed with regard to an application in urban areas. Urban areas come with particular challenges including (i) spatial conflicts with urban system nestedness, (ii) specific urban biodiversity, fragmentation and altered environments, (iii) value plurality, multi-actor interdependencies and environmental injustices, (iv) path-dependencies with cultural and planning legacies and (v) a potential misconception of cities as being artificial landscapes disconnected from nature. Given these challenges, in this perspective paper, we build upon and integrate knowledge from the most recent academic work on NBS in urban areas and introduce five distinct, integrated principles for urban NBS design, planning and implementation. Our five principles should help to transcend governance gaps and advance the scientific discourse of urban NBS towards a more effective and sustainable urban development. To contribute to resilient urban futures, the design, planning, policy and governance of NBS should (1) consider the need for a systemic understanding, (2) contribute to benefiting people and biodiversity, (3) contribute to inclusive solutions for the long-term, (4) consider context conditions and (5) foster communication and learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element to all living beings but also a finite resource. P-related problems center around broken P cycles from local to global scales. This paper presents outcomes from the 9th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW9) held 2019 on how to move towards a sustainable P management. It is based on two sequential discussion rounds with all participants. Important progress was reported regarding the awareness of P as finite mineable resource, technologies to recycle P, and legislation towards a circular P economy. Yet, critical deficits were identified such as how to handle legacy P, how climate change may affect ecosystem P cycling, or working business models to up-scale existing recycling models. Workshop participants argued for more transdisciplinary networks to narrow a perceived science-practice/policy gap. While this gap may be smaller in reality as illustrated with a Swiss example, we formulate recommendations how to bridge this gap more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO2 exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect mid-latitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10 % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and GDP worth roughly US $400 million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233 %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for mitigating climate change are gaining popularity. The number of NBS is increasing, but research gaps still exist at the governance level. The objectives of this paper are (i) to give an overview of the implemented NBS for flood risk management and mitigation in Germany, (ii) to identify governance models that are applied, and (iii) to explore the differences between these models. The results of a hierarchical clustering procedure and a qualitative analysis show that while no one-size-fits-all governance model exists, polycentricism is an important commonality between the projects. The study concludes by highlighting the need for further research on traditional governance model reconversion and paradigm changes. We expect the findings to identify what has worked in the past, as well as what is important for the implementation of NBS for flood risk management in future projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theme: Climate change impacts Terry Callaghan was a lead author of the snow and permafrost chapters of the assessment and Margareta Johansson, a research assistant in the ACIA process, became a lead author too. The rise of the Arctic: Intergenerational personal perspectives: This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Communicating scientific understanding globally Terry Callaghan was the lead author of various chapters in the ACIA report and, together with a small team, ensured that ACIA results were incorporated into the IPCC 2007 Polar Regions Chapter (Anisimov et al. [3]). [Extracted from the article]

1 Goreau-Hayes Coral Reef Bleaching Hot Spot Map from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km coral bleaching record (coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5 km), Accessed September 26, 2020. Global warming triggers coral reef bleaching tipping point: This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. The sudden outbreak of mass coral reef bleaching around the world in the 1980s was unprecedented, the first natural ecosystem threat from global warming, and an urgent alarm call for concerted efforts to reverse global warming. There has been minimal progress towards enhancement of local reef management capacity in coral reef countries by documenting environmental history, understanding the causes of present changes, and preparing for future developments while coral reef science represents scientific tourism rather than local priorities. [Extracted from the article]

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change—but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country's adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the possible impacts of climate change on aquatic salinity and mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. The impact analysis combines the salinity tolerance ranges of predominant mangrove species with aquatic salinity measures in 27 scenarios of climate change by 2050. The estimates indicate significant overall losses for Heritiera fomes; substantial gains for Excoecaria agallocha; modest changes for Avicennia alba, A. marina, A. officinalis, Ceriops decandra, and Sonneratia apetala; and mixed results for species combinations. Changes in mangrove stocks are likely to change the prospects for forest-based livelihoods. The implications for neighboring communities are assessed by computing changes in high-value mangrove species for the five sub-districts in the Sundarbans. The results of the impact analysis indicate highly varied patterns of gain and loss across the five sub-districts. Overall, however, the results suggest that salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strongly regressive impact on the value of timber stocks because of the loss of highest value timber species, Heritiera fomes. In addition, the augmented potential for honey production will likely increase conflicts between humans and wildlife in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resettlement of communities has occurred throughout time from a variety of drivers. More recently, relocation from climate change impacts has emerged in policy frameworks and on-the-ground initiatives. While there are few case studies of climate-induced relocation globally, this is expected to increase in the future. Exploring the livelihood implications of past resettlements is one way of better preparing for this. This paper reviews 203 resettlement case studies to evaluate the implications on livelihoods and extract key lessons applicable for future climate-induced relocations. Findings revealed physical outcomes as the only in which any improvement was seen while natural, social, financial, human and cultural outcomes fared worse. Key consideration for future relocations emerged surrounding: (a) land and compensation, (b) accounting for the issue of access to livelihood assets, (c) accounting for the intersections of vulnerability within a 'community', (d) explicit recognition and attention to the cultural dimensions of relocation, and (e) meaningful participatory planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on barriers to climate change adaptation has largely focused on non-climatic barriers and has provided less insight into climate-induced barriers. Responding to this lacuna, this paper examines the connections between climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana. Results from the qualitative fieldwork show that climatic changes have been accompanied by increases in climate change extremes (CCEs) over the last three decades. In order to adapt, smallholder farmers use improved crop varieties and other support strategies. Paradoxically, however, CCEs have undermined these strategies in several instances, causing crop yields to fall short of their actual potential and leading to financial indebtedness. Therefore, the results showcase that overcoming non-climatic barriers to the uptake of agricultural adaptation strategies is a necessary but insufficient condition for achieving successful adaptation outcomes. This is the case since new barriers to the adaptation process are constantly emerging, and CCEs are an example of this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is challenging conservation strategies for protected areas. To summarise current guidance, we systematically compiled recommendations from reviews of scientific literature (74 reviews fitting inclusion criteria) about how to adapt conservation strategies in the face of climate change. We focussed on strategies for designation and management of protected areas in terrestrial landscapes, in boreal and temperate regions. Most recommendations belonged to one of five dominating categories: (i) Ensure sufficient connectivity; (ii) Protect climate refugia; (iii) Protect a few large rather than many small areas; (iv) Protect areas predicted to become important for biodiversity in the future; and (v) Complement permanently protected areas with temporary protection. The uncertainties and risks caused by climate change imply that additional conservation efforts are necessary to reach conservation goals. To protect biodiversity in the future, traditional biodiversity conservation strategies should be combined with strategies purposely developed in response to a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation, mitigation and food security may be addressed at the same time by enhancing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration through environmentally sound land management practices. This is promoted by the "4 per 1000" Initiative, a multi-stakeholder platform aiming at increasing SOC storage through sustainable practices. The scientific and technical committee of the Initiative is working to identify indicators, research priorities and region-specific practices needed for their implementation. The Initiative received its name due to the global importance of soils for climate change, which can be illustrated by a thought experiment showing that an annual growth rate of only 0.4% of the standing global SOC stocks would have the potential to counterbalance the current increase in atmospheric CO2. However, there are numerous barriers to the rise in SOC stocks and while SOC sequestration can contribute to partly offsetting greenhouse gas emissions, its main benefits are related to increased soil quality and climate change adaptation. The Initiative provides a collaborative platform for policy makers, practitioners, scientists and stakeholders to engage in finding solutions. Criticism of the Initiative has been related to the poor definition of its numerical target, which was not understood as an aspirational goal. The objective of this paper is to present the aims of the initiative, to discuss critical issues and to present challenges for its implementation. We identify barriers, risks and trade-offs and advocate for collaboration between multiple parties in order to stimulate innovation and to initiate the transition of agricultural systems toward sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation to environmental change, including biodiversity change, is both a new imperative in the face of global climate change and the oldest problem in human history. Humans have evolved a wide range of adaptation strategies in response to localised environmental changes, which have contributed strongly to both biological and cultural diversity. The evolving set of locally driven, 'bottom-up' responses to environmental change is collectively termed 'autonomous adaptation,' while its obverse, 'planned adaptation,' refers to 'top-down' (from without, e.g. State-driven) responses. After reviewing the dominant vulnerability, risk, and pathway approaches to adaptation, this paper applies an alternative framework for understanding human adaptation processes and responding more robustly to future adaptation needs. This adaptation processes-to-pathways framework is then deployed to consider human responses to biodiversity change caused by an aggressive 'invasive' plant, Lantana camara L., in several agri-forest communities of southern India. The results show that a variety of adaptation processes are developing to make Lantana less disruptive and more useable—from avoidance through mobility strategies to utilizing the plant for economic diversification. However, there is currently no clear synergy or policy support to connect them to a successful long-term adaptation pathway. These results are evaluated in relation to broader trends in adaptation analysis and governance to suggest ways of improving our understanding and support for human adaptation to biodiversity change at the household, community, and regional livelisystem levels, especially in societies highly dependent on local biodiversity for their livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coast of Brittany hosts one of the largest seaweed forests in Europe, collected for several centuries, but today subject to climatic change. By an ethnoecological survey, this paper investigates the seaweed collectors' perception of the changes and hazards that affect their resources. We explored how hazards change their practices and adaptive capacity through strategy and ecological knowledge. Their knowledge evolved rapidly due to their interaction with the natural environment and exchange with scientists, generating new types of knowledge and management practices better adapted to expected future biodiversity change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores visualization-supported dialogues with water management and ecosystem stakeholders from four catchments in Sweden, Latvia, Germany and Poland. An interactive visualization tool was designed to present information regarding modelled effects of chosen future pathways including different measures that address ecosystem issues under present and future scenarios of land use and climate change, and estimated benefits and costs of the measures. This paper assesses if and how visualization-supported dialogues hinder or support key components of good governance of water and ecosystem management among expert stakeholders. We discuss challenges and opportunities related to the tool and dialogue design, and performance of dialogues. Results from a cross-case workshop indicate that the form and functionality of the tool contributes to participation, empowerment, accessibility and flexibility, while dialogue design is instrumental for encouraging trust and inclusion of local knowledge and competence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's position on climate change negotiations is likely to have far reaching implications for the success of global climate cooperation. Since the beginning of negotiations, the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) remained the centerpiece of India's stand. The stand started to evolve at the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Copenhagen in 2009, when India accepted voluntary commitments to reduce emission intensity. Though India still swears by CBDR, status of the principle in the negotiations has become doubtful after the Durban Climate Conference in 2011 committed all parties to take emission targets. This paper traces major transition points in India's negotiating position over the years and provides a descriptive context of its climate-related concerns. It analyzes the interview responses of 15 top scientists, experts, and negotiators to build upon core areas of climate change issues in India, its future role, and position in negotiations. Interviewees, in general, were in favor of protecting the carbon space for the poor who had very low emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social–ecological systems (SES) research underlines the tremendous impact of human behaviour on planet Earth. To enable a sustainable course of humanity, the integration of human cognition in SES research is crucial for better understanding the processes leading to and involved in human behaviour. However, this integration is proving a challenge, not only in terms of diverging ontological and epistemological perspectives, but also—and this has received little attention in SES research—in terms of (lacking) precision of communication regarding cognition. SES scholars often implicitly disagree on the meaning of this broad concept due to unexpressed underlying assumptions and perspectives. This paper raises awareness for the need to communicate clearly and mindfully about human cognition by exemplifying common communication pitfalls and ways of preventing them. We focus on the concept of cognition itself and provide aspects of cognition that need to be communicated explicitly, i.e. different objects of investigation and levels of description. Lastly, we illustrate means of overcoming communication pitfalls by the example of rationality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart growth (SG) is widely adopted by planners and policy makers as an environmentally friendly way of building cities. In this paper, we analyze the environmental validity of the SG-approach based on a review of the scientific literature. We found a lack of proof of environmental gains, in combination with a great inconsistency in the measurements of different SG attributes. We found that a surprisingly limited number of studies have actually examined the environmental rationales behind SG, with 34% of those studies displaying negative environmental outcomes of SG. Based on the insights from the review, we propose that research within this context must first be founded in more advanced and consistent knowledge of geographic and spatial analyses. Second, it needs to a greater degree be based on a system's understanding of urban processes. Third, it needs to aim at making cities more resilient, e.g., against climate-change effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transforming cities into low-carbon, resilient, and sustainable places will require action encompassing most segments of society. However, local governments struggle to overview and assess all ongoing climate activities in a city, constraining well-informed decision-making and transformative capacity. This paper proposes and tests an assessment framework developed to visualize the implementation of urban climate transition (UCT). Integrating key transition activities and process progression, the framework was applied to three Swedish cities. Climate coordinators and municipal councillors evaluated the visual UCT representations. Results indicate that their understanding of UCT actions and implementation bottlenecks became clearer, making transition more governable. To facilitate UCT, involving external actors and shifting priorities between areas were found to be key. The visual UCT representations improved system awareness and memory, building local transformative capacity. The study recommends systematic assessment and visualization of process progression as a promising method to facilitate UCT governance, but potentially also broader sustainability transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to quantify the impact of a 1-m sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in 86 developing countries and territories. It is found that approximately 68 % of coastal wetlands in these countries are at risk. A large percentage of this estimated loss is found in Europe and Central Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific, as well as in the Middle East and North Africa. A small number of countries will be severely affected. China and Vietnam (in East Asia and the Pacific), Libya and Egypt (in the Middle East and North Africa), and Romania and Ukraine (in Europe and Central Asia) will bear most losses. In economic terms, the loss of coastal wetlands is likely to exceed $703 million per year in 2000 US dollars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to influence spatial and temporal distributions of fish stocks. The aim of this paper is to compare climate change impact on a fishery with other factors impacting the performance of fishing fleets. The fishery in question is the Northeast Arctic cod fishery, a well-documented fishery where data on spatial and temporal distributions are available. A cellular automata model is developed for the purpose of mimicking possible distributional patterns and different management alternatives are studied under varying assumptions on the fleets' fishing aptitude. Fisheries management and fishing aptitude, also including technological development and local knowledge, turn out to have the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of the fishing effort, when comparing the IPCC's SRES A1B scenario with repeated sequences of the current environmental situation over a period of 45 years. In both cases, the highest profits in the simulation period of 45 years are obtained at low exploitation levels and moderate fishing aptitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2005, a dramatic decline of the Arctic sea-ice extent is observed which results in an increase of shipping activities. Even though this provides commercial and social development opportunities, the resulting environmental impacts need to be investigated and monitored. In order to understand the impact of shipping in arctic areas, the method described in this paper determines the travel time, fuel consumption and resulting exhaust emissions of ships navigating in arctic waters. The investigated case studies are considering ship particulars as well as environmental conditions with special focus on ice scenarios. Travel time, fuel consumption and exhaust gas emission were investigated for three different vessels, using different passages of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in different seasons of years 1960, 2000 and 2040. The presented results show the sensitivity of vessel performance and amount of exhaust emissions to optimize arctic traffic with respect to efficiency, safety and environmental impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large body of literature exists arguing that numerous, complex factors result in environmental migration. Thus, in order to understand environmental migration, we must investigate how its drivers are defined, explained and interrelated. This study aims to produce a comprehensive analysis of the literature on the drivers of environmental migration and assess future opportunities for studying 'environmental migration'. We conduct a systematic literature search using the keywords 'environmental migration' and 'drivers' in Scopus and Web of Knowledge, analysing 146 publications. The findings are organised as a bibliometric analysis, including network analysis and evaluation of publication metrics. Results show that the literature on environmental migration drivers constitutes a relatively new, growing field largely developed in the USA. It is rooted in the wider environmental migration literature and strongly associated with the discourse of climate change impacts as driving factors. Typologies of 'migrants' are more prevalent than 'refugees' when referring to actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal erosion is a normal process of nature. However, the rate of coastal erosion, and the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding events, are now on the rise around the world due to the changing climate. Current responses to coastal erosion are primarily determined by site-specific factors, such as coastal elevation, coastal slope, coastal features, and historical coastline change rate, without a systematic understanding of the coastal-change processes in the context of climate change, including spatiotemporal changes in sea level, regional changes in wave climate, and sea ice coverage. In the absence of a clear understanding of the coastal-change processes, most of the current coastal responses have been built upon a risky assumption (i.e., the present-day coastal change will persist) and are not resilient to future climate change. Here, we conduct a literature review to summarize the latest scientific understanding of the coastal-change processes under climate change and the potential research gaps towards the prediction of future coastal erosion. Our review suggests that a coupled coastal simulation system with a nearshore wave model (e.g., SWAN, MIKE21, etc.) can play a critical role in both the short-term and long-term coastal risk assessment and protective measure development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens' society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Mälaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]