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Unlike other classics of political economy, "Exit, Voice, and Loyalty" (EVL) has not sparked many innovations in the field of electoral studies. This paper aims to demonstrate that scholars miss out on a powerful theory of political behaviour by leaving Hirschman's ideas to other disciplines. To change this, I resolve several theoretical complications that have hampered the application of EVL to democratic elections. On this basis, I construct a model of voting behaviour through the electoral cycle to explain typical "second-order" effects in elections to the European Parliament (EP). Building on the parameters of EVL allows to unite such diverse phenomena as anti-government swings, declining turnout, protest voting, conversion and alienation in one theoretical framework. Testing the model with survey data from the European Election Studies of 1999 and 2004 reveals novel insights into the dynamics at work in EP elections. The role of strategic voting in the form of voice appears to be limited. Instead, processes of de- and realignment in the form of exit dominate a picture of EP elections that undermines the widespread conception of second-order irrelevance. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay is meant as an attempt to sway deliberative democrats and political economists that they need each other. Deliberative democracy, as a practical public philosophy, has many unresolved tensions and hard choices between competing values it wishes to promote. While critics are quick to point out that deliberative democracy must economize on its values as a governing philosophy, it remains as yet unclear whether or not such economizing can or cannot be done without doing excessive violence to the deliberative ideal. For my own part, I suspect that deliberative democracy is a generally beneficial understanding of the public good for political regimes in our time. However, I do not try to make that argument here, but I assume that it would be an improvement for democratic theory to successfully economize on the deliberative ideal. Instead, I focus on what I hope are some helpful prefatory comments about many of the important questions on the relationship between deliberative democracy and political economy. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current saliency of technocrats in Latin America has stimulated a lively theoretical debate about their influence in policy making and their effective independence from other sociopolitical actors, especially their politically appointed superiors, International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and business interests. Do experts enjoy considerable independence from other sociopolitical actors? Is their power derived from other actors or is it their own? Through an in-depth analysis of the recruitment and operation of economic experts in Colombia and Peru this article assesses the power técnicos wield. My findings show that significant levels of technocratic independence in economic policy making have been achieved in both countries. This independence is based on (i) technocrats’ use of expertise to enhance and maintain their independence and (ii) the particular conditions found in economic policy areas that protects experts from sociopolitical pressures. These results help to explain why it is more likely to find experts in economic policy areas than in other areas of the Latin American State. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling many political processes requires both a variable selection component and a smoothing component. Recent advances in penalized regression methods allow for variable selection through non-concave constraints and smooth curve fitting through ridge-type constraints. I develop a model that fits both simultaneously, allowing for one set of covariates to be selected through a LASSO-type constraint and another to be smoothed through ridge-type spline constraints. An algorithm, stopping rule, and unbiased degrees of freedom estimate are provided. My method is illustrated first through testing the Tiebout Hypothesis. I fit a smooth curve to a battery of county-level socioeconomic data in the United States, while selecting jumps that coincide with state lines. I next illustrate the method with the 2004 American National Election Study. My method models a survey respondent with a fixed amount of attention, who then selects among several discrete issues and adds them when forming a response. Issues selection is allowed to vary by demographic, but placed under a LASSO constraint. Individual responses are allowed to be arbitrary smooth curves of responses. Simulations and a discussion of further uses conclude the paper. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Institutions are created as individuals interact to maintain fundamental affects by creating identities, facts, and norms to support these sentiments. Institutions change as these fundamental sentiments reach an extreme and then reverse. The fundamental affects of economics are confidence, or trust, and fear, or lack of trust. The fundamental affects of politics, as Machiavelli argued, are anger and contentment. Various measures of emotive meaning are used to show how optimism has changed from 1982 to now so as to reach extreme levels to support increasingly risky actions. An outline is then presented of how social relations, identities, facts, and norms changed from 1982 to 2000 as economic and political sentiment changed to support this increasing optimism and propensity to take risks. The belief in the efficacy of financial engineering is a development of this optimism. A discussion of the political and economic identities, beliefs, and norms to support such activities as Federal Reserve bailouts, securitization, sub-prime mirtgages, collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps, and other means to manage risk is presented. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I argue that since the new global economic crises is heralding an ideological shift change in both politics and economics, we should develop or rather rediscover and reconstruct the idea of Republican citizenship in the domain of nation-states. Accordingly, not only a notion of full-fledged citizenship including civil, political and social rights first mentioned by T.H. Marshall ought to be adopted, but also a new an alternative urbanization ought also be developed through the reconstruction of downtown areas as opposed to increasing sub-urbanization of cities across the globe, which have created atomized, isolated and alienated individuals, families and life spheres. This latter achievement would reinvigorate, if not recreate, what Aristotle calls ‘civic friendship’ among individuals, re-establishing a vibrant city life as well as creating a political community where people can enjoy a sense of solidarity and friendship. I also argue that this what we can easily call a renewed type of Republican citizenship with its deeper political and economic ramifications would create a political environment through which citizens could renegotiate their civic, political and economic conditions with the state… ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I present a Politico-economic model of international trade in order to analyze how changes in objective parameters of the economy may alter the probability of different political equlibria. I use the method of Stability Sets proposed by John Harsanyi and Reinhardt Selten (Harsanyi and Selten, 1988) in order to analyze the relative probability of two possible equilibria in the model when relative prices, between manufacture and agricultural goods, change. I distinguish those two equilibria of the model with the adjectives polarized and moderated and argue that the increase in the relative probability of the polarized equilibrium increases the probability of social conflict. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional wisdom dictates that there is a positive and monotonic relationship between a country growth and the quality of its institutions. In this paper, we formally test this hypothesis in a cross-countries fully nonparametric regression framework. In particular, we test whether three of the World Governance Indicators, found to be significantly correlated with growth in Huynh and Jacho-Chávez (2008, forthcoming), namely: voice and accountability, political stability, and rule of law are positively and monotonically related to economic growth for all countries in various regions in each year between 1996 and 2006. We will then link these tests with the literature on growth diagnostics and attempt to ascertain the binding constraints. This work will help policymakers to understand the tradeoffs between growth policies and improving quality of institutions. The paper implements newly developed techniques in Parmeter and Racine (2008) to impose and test shape restrictions in a nonparametric fashion. Test statistics are then constructed by comparing the unrestricted nonparametric fit with the restricted one. Their distributions under the null hypothesis are then obtained from standard nonparametric bootstrap re-sampling scheme. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a formal model of welfare policymaking that incorporates both decisions about tax and transer levels but also the extent of behavioral regulation of the poor. The model makes several predictions which we test on data from the American states. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the impact of political development on demographic change and economic development in India’s states. The theoretical insights, drawn from existing models in political economy, are tested empirically using data from 28 states in India over the period 1981-2005. A measure of political capacity based on tax effort is first estimated for India’s states. Political capacity is expected to have negative effects on fertility - directly through the impact of family planning programs and indirectly through reductions in infant mortality. Controlling for physical and human capital accumulation, political development is expected to enhance economic development through the fertility and mortality transitions. The results are expected to reveal the regional drivers behind India’s economic success and the role of politics in promoting demographic stability and motivating economic growth at a sub-national level. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on the effects of networks in politics and economics usually focuses on the relationship between network structure and aggregate outcomes. In this paper we turn our attention to the effect that network structure has on individual strategy. We utilize an experimental approach that allows us to identify the causal effect of changes in network structure on individual behavior. We demonstrate that individuals change their strategy in a network coordination game based on their position in the network. We show that when individuals are in a position with a large number of connections they are less likely to choose a “stick” strategy than when they are in a position with only a few connections. In networks with high connectivity a smaller proportion of individuals will also choose to adopt a “stick” strategy. The experimental results provide causal evidence that network position and structure affect the strategies chosen by individuals. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conflict literature offers two major explanations for the correlation between economic integration and peace. The inefficiency argument claims that economic integration deters states from going to war by increasing their economic losses. By contrast, the costly signaling argument asserts that economic integration helps political leaders avoid war by enhancing their ability to communicate with each other through actions short of force. We apply these two arguments to the price reactions of cross-listed stocks to crisis signaling and political force in their home markets: while the inefficiency argument suggests that stock markets should respond negatively only to the use of force, the costly signaling argument suggests that stock markets may also react to lower gauge events such as threats and ultimatums. Our findings, which are based on daily share price movements and King and Lowe’s (2003) events data for the time-period between 2000 and 2004, offer support for the inefficiency argument. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last two decades, the shift from state-led to market oriented economic policies has been one of the most important policy changes in sub-Saharan Africa. Fronted by international financial institutions, African governments have implemented market oriented policies with varying policy outcomes ranging from ‘half hearted’ liberalization to comprehensive economic reforms. What accounts for the variation? This paper argues that ideas (held by domestic elites) - defined as constituting both a set of policy ideas and values- matter, and can be shown to exert causal influence over and above the impact of international actors, interests, and institutions on policy outcomes in Africa. I illustrate this point by examining the shift in economic policies in Kenya. In the country, limited economic reforms in the 1990s (under President Moi) which had stalled by the end of the decade received a major boost in 2003 when the NARC government under President Kibaki came to power. I seek to explain the policy shift by focussing on how ideas, interests, and institutions interacted to produce the policy changes. The paper also explores the conditions under which ideas are likely to be influential. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to be (re)elected, what is the most effective distributive politics so as to increase the probability of a politician's being (re)elected and win a seat? When it comes to the party level, how would party organization target to win the majority of seats? Recent political economy literatures treat this question with theoretical models and generally suggest two different ideas; invest in core supportive districts vs. invest in swing districts. This study attempts to empirically test the theories, which is relatively underdeveloped in the field, using Korean election results and intergovernmental transfer. This study, unlike earlier studies of Korea on this subject focusing on the relationship between the outcomes from presidential elections and intergovernmental transfers, relates the intergovernmental transfer with the general election for the National Assembly. By combining general election result, I examine whether political parties of Korea invest more in the supportive or swing regions. The result confirms Cox and McCubbins’s core supporter theory. I explain this as a result of strong regional voting bloc and the third party threat in many districts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the attacks of 9/11, US policy towards the Middle East was transformed, at least ostensibly, from supporting ‘friendly’ countries (no matter how authoritarian) to helping spread democracy and economic freedoms. However, despite this change, current US Middle Eastern policy seems no closer to achieving its goals of defeating global terrorism, of ensuring a stable oil supply to world markets and helping to reduce the existential threat to Israel. This is because the achievement of all these goals will require the cooperation of Iran, the level of which appears not to have changed since 1979. It is therefore the intention of this paper to argue that a new US foreign policy is required, one that includes a rapprochement with Iran. This paper will thus provide a guide to how such a rapprochement might be achieved and will discuss the principle economic, political and military components it should include. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]