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Background: Peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) is effective for the management of achalasia and its variants; however, it can be ineffective in some patients. We aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to predict the clinical failure of POEM preoperatively., Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent POEM in 14 high volume centers between 2010 and 2020 were enrolled in this study. Clinical failure was defined as an Eckardt score of ≥ 4 or retreatment. A risk scoring system to predict the short-term clinical failure of POEM was developed using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated using bootstrapping and decision curve analysis., Results: Of the 2740 study patients, 112 (4.1 %) experienced clinical failure 6 months after POEM. Risk scores were assigned for three preoperative factors as follows: preoperative Eckardt score (1 point), manometric diagnosis (-4 points for type II achalasia), and a history of prior treatments (1 point for pneumatic dilation or 12 points for surgical/endoscopic myotomy). The discriminative capacity (concordance statistics 0.68, 95 %CI 0.62-0.72) and calibration (slope 1.15, 95 %CI 0.87-1.40) were shown. Decision curve analysis demonstrated its clinical usefulness. Patients were categorized into low (0-8 points; estimated risk of clinical failure < 5 %) and high risk (9-22 points; ≥ 5 %) groups. The proportions of clinical failure for the categories were stratified according to the mid-term outcomes (log-rank test, P  < 0.001)., Conclusions: This risk scoring system can predict the clinical failure of POEM preoperatively and provide useful information when making treatment decisions., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (Thieme. All rights reserved.)

BACKGROUND : Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and reflux esophagitis remain problems after peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM). This study aimed to elucidate the risk factors and long-term course of reflux esophagitis and symptomatic GERD after POEM. METHODS : This multicenter cohort study involved 14 high volume centers. Overall, 2905 patients with achalasia-related esophageal motility disorders treated with POEM were analyzed for reflux esophagitis, severe reflux esophagitis (Los Angeles classification C or D), and symptomatic GERD. RESULTS : Reflux esophagitis was diagnosed in 1886 patients (64.9 %). Age ≥ 65 years (risk ratio [RR] 0.85), male sex (RR 1.11), posterior myotomy (RR 1.12), esophageal myotomy > 10 cm (RR 1.12), and gastric myotomy > 2 cm (RR 1.17) were independently associated with reflux esophagitis. Severe reflux esophagitis was diagnosed in 219 patients (7.5 %). Age ≥ 65 years (RR 1.72), previous treatments (RR 2.21), Eckardt score ≥ 7 (RR 0.68), sigmoid-type achalasia (RR 1.40), and esophageal myotomy > 10 cm (RR 1.59) were factors associated with severe reflux esophagitis. Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) were more effective for reflux esophagitis at 5-year follow-up ( P  = 0.03) than after 1 year ( P  = 0.08). Symptomatic GERD was present in 458 patients (15.9 %). Symptom duration ≥ 10 years (RR 1.28), achalasia diagnosis (RR 0.68), integrated relaxation pressure ≥ 26 (RR 0.60), and posterior myotomy (RR 0.80) were associated with symptomatic GERD. The incidence of symptomatic GERD was lower at 5-year follow-up compared with that after 1 year ( P  = 0.04), particularly in PPI users ( P  < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS : The incidence of severe reflux esophagitis was low after POEM, but excessive myotomy for older patients with previous treatments should be avoided. Early phase symptomatic GERD is non-acid reflux dependent and the natural course is favorable, basically supporting conservative treatment., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (Thieme. All rights reserved.)