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Climate change leads to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters. It has had a severe impact on agricultural economic growth in China. Based on data in China from 2004 to 2020, this paper uses a fixed-effect model to discuss the effects of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth. The empirical results are as follows. (1) Natural disasters negatively affect agricultural economic growth. The regression coefficient of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth is −0.1183. (2) The inhibition of agricultural economic growth by natural disasters is more prominent in areas with low government attention and average agricultural production conditions. (3) The mechanism analysis shows that natural disasters inhibit agricultural economic growth through channels that cause the spread of diseases and pests. (4) Expanding the scale of agricultural insurance can prevent the impact of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth. This research provides policy recommendations for preventing the negative impacts of natural disasters. Agricultural producers should raise awareness of disaster management and improve the accuracy of disaster warning mechanisms. • This paper measures the level of natural disasters in China. • This paper expands the application field of functional data analysis methods. • This paper examines the mechanism of natural disasters affecting agricultural economic growth. • This paper provides policy suggestions for ensuring agricultural economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preventing the impact of natural disasters on urban-rural income inequality helps to achieve shared prosperity. This paper uses the functional entropy weight method to calculate the level of natural disasters from 2004 to 2020. Then, this paper discusses the impact of natural disasters on the urban-rural income gap. The empirical results are as follows. (1) Natural disasters have expanded the urban-rural income gap. The regression coefficient is 0.2663, which is significant at the 1% level. (2) In areas with a high proportion of the rural population, the impact of natural disasters is more prominent. (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that natural disasters have widened the urban-rural income gap by restraining rural investment and agricultural production. Finally, this paper suggests strengthening investment in the agricultural sector to mitigate the negative impact of natural disasters. • This paper uses the functional entropy weight method to calculate the level of natural disasters. • This paper quantitatively measures the impact of natural disasters on the urban-rural income gap. • This paper examines the mechanism of the impact of natural disasters on the urban-rural income gap. • This paper provides policy suggestions for narrowing the urban-rural income gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO 2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are critical technical measures to effectively mitigate the global climate change problem. However, most of the existing research has focused on the capture end and lacks in-depth analysis of subsequent processes such as compression, leading to limitations in the improvement of system economics. Therefore, a novel CCS system for a 300 MW coal-fired power plant was proposed in this paper with two strategies: (1) a CCS system integrating CO 2 refrigeration cycle (CFPP-CCS-CRC); and (2) a CCS co-generation plant integrating CO 2 refrigeration cycle (CHP-CCS-CRC). The proposed systems' performance was comparatively evaluated by applying energy, exergy, and economic (3E) analyses. The results demonstrated that at different CO 2 capture percentages (13.1 %∼72.9 %), the CHP-CCS-CRC system has improved energy utilization efficiency by 1.2 %∼5.6 % and exergy efficiency by 7.7 %∼25.8 %, compared to the conventional CCUS system (CFPP-CCS). In particular, at a percentage of 13.1 %, the combined energy consumption of the CHP-CCS-CRC system was 0.39 GJ/tCO 2 , a 79 % reduction compared to 1.87 GJ/tCO 2 of the CFPP-CCS system, which resulted in a static payback period of less than 2 years. In general, the newly proposed system features more adequate energy utilization, lower operating costs, and higher economic efficiency. [Display omitted] • A novel CCUS system coupled with CO 2 refrigeration were proposed. • The performance of the proposed systems is comparatively evaluated by 3E analysis. • The energy consumption of the proposed CCUS systems is reduced by 29.24 %–79 %. • The exergy efficiency of the proposed CCUS systems is reduced by 7.7 %–25.8 %. • The static payback period for the proposed systems is reduced to less than 2 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of energy transition amidst the energy crisis and how policymakers can drive down emissions while focusing on energy security are critical. Given the geo-political situation, energy crisis volatility, energy shortage and climate change all affect the green transition and the short-term priorities for energy companies and policymakers. Energy security is not an isolated issue but has widespread implications as various sectors depend on energy supply to function properly. Governments around the world are faced with this trilemma, how to balance energy security with energy sustainability while also considering energy affordability. Sustainability has been in focus for about a decade. However, energy security is suddenly becoming one of the most important priorities that policymakers need to consider. Unfortunately, the renewable energy infrastructure is not yet ready to replace the growing volume of energy demand from hydrocarbon, which the world has been dependent on. This means, for now, a surge in energy generation through hydrocarbon to meet the existing energy demand deficit. However, it is important not to lose focus on the challenge of energy sustainability and climate change adaption and mitigation. Where trends like carbon capture and storage; solar, wind, hydro, green hydrogen, etc.; renewable energy infrastructure and integrations, with supply chain and engineering services consideration [in aspect for the growing market in this space] need better attention with regards to investment and full-scale implementation. This paper aims to analyze this 1st energy crisis of green transition with a priori on energy poverty with consideration of major influences and associated impacts. Furthermore, it proposes a specific framework for inclusive investigations, which considers the entire energy ecosystem with consideration of major influences, to enable the policymakers to better drive the green transition. This involves formulating energy policies that are not entirely conservative towards renewable energy sources but instead promote investments in both green and relatively more environmentally benign energy sources compared to high emission hydrocarbons. In this regard, this paper renders exhaustive prospects and recommendations. • The nexus between energy transition, energy poverty and their impacts are investigated. • Influence of climate change, COVID-19, geo-politics, and energy infrastructure on energy transition. • Exhaustive prospects and recommendations are rendered. • Requirement for inclusive investigations and recognition of energy poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind power and pumped storage combined system (WPCS), as an entity integrates multiple energy sources, can provide a reliable overall power supply by optimizing the management of available resources, helping to combat the serious climate change challenges. In order to address the participation of combination system in multiple market operations and multiple uncertainties, this paper proposes a joint declaration strategy for WPCS to participate in the electricity market (EM) and frequency regulation market (FRM). Firstly, the trading mechanism is developed for WPCS to collaborate in power markets. Secondly, a joint declaration and dispatching strategy decision-making model of WPCS is constructed, and the uncertainty of market prices and wind power output in the model is processed by using the information gap decision theory-distribution robust optimization (IGDT-DRO) technique. Finally, simulations implemented on an actual WPCS are delivered to show that: 1) WPCS achieved an expected profit by 8.79% and decrease deviation penalty costs by 58.81% through multi energy complementary operation. 2) Compared with the single market, WPCS can increase the expected profit by 77.5% in the joint declaration of multi-markets.3) IGDT-DRO technology can simultaneously manage the uncertainty of both price and electricity. When the sample size increases tenfold, the runtime increases by less than 40%, which has advantages in data-driven and stable runtime. [Display omitted] • A synergistic trading mode of electric energy and frequency regulation markets is designed. • A declaration-dispatching strategy for wind power and pumped storage participating in EM andFRM is constructed. • The IGDT-DRO technique is used to deal with the uncertainty of market price and wind power generation. • The characteristics of IGDT-DRO model in data-driven feature, non-conservative result and stable run time have been proved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper delves into the potential impact of a changing climate on the energy performance of European buildings. Research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of current energy requirements focusing on the envelope, considering existing regulations in national policies. Energy simulations are conducted at 94 locations across the European Union to cover the climatic variability and Koppen climate classification. The research analyzes future climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070, using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). According to a comprehensive analysis of heating, cooling, and overall energy performance, climate plays a significant role in buildings' energy balance. In moderately cool climate countries, the demand for air conditioning is projected to decrease in the years ahead. Conversely, in countries with a warm climate, there is a projected increase in the overall energy demand. Consequently, a revision of current energy regulations should be a priority. Providing insights into the relation between building design, energy efficiency, and climate change, the research identifies policy adjustments to ensure buildings can effectively respond to changing climatic conditions. A holistic and dynamic approach can support building design accounting for long-term impacts of climate change to create resilient and energy-efficient structures. • National building energy regulations of European Member States do not tackle climate change. • Over next decades, a decrease in heating demand is forecasted across all climate zones. • There is potential for a future considerable increase of cooling demand in Europe. • A reduction in total building energy demand in colder climates and an increase in warmer climates can be expected. • Revise national energy regulations, especially in warmer zones, to curb the expected rise in Europe's total energy demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) systems have the potential to provide simultaneous heating and cooling, allowing for energy exchange between users with different needs. However, their viability in mild climates with a higher share of cooling demand remains unclear. In this paper, we propose a framework for assessing the engineering, economic and environmental performance of a 5GDHC system compared to a state-of-the-art business-as-usual solution and demonstrate it through a practical case study for a university campus in Melbourne, Australia. When accessible heat sources and sinks are available, the 5GDHC system provides a cost-effective solution, with annual cost savings between 9 and 29 % and GHG emissions reduction between 25 and 58 % compared to an already advanced business-as-usual system. Additionally, by using peak off-peak tariffs and an hourly emission factor for the electricity consumed, we demonstrate the 5GDHC operational flexibility in pursuing different objectives, such as minimising cost or emissions, respectively. The results suggest that 5GDHC systems are an economically and environmentally viable solution in milder climates, and a successful implementation of 5GDHC in Australia can create new market opportunities and pave the way for its adoption in other countries with similar climatic conditions and no established history of district heating systems. • 5GDHC systems are analysed in a new context with a milder climate. • A multi-dimensional assessment framework is proposed. • The framework is demonstrated through a practical case study in Melbourne, Australia. • Flexibility is assessed through varying electricity tariffs and emission factors. • The strong performance of the 5GDHC system offers insights into similar contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In accordance with the Paris Agreement, many nations have set out a global framework to stabilise and prevent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate climate change. This study reviewed the literature on the GHG protection and control (GHGPC) impacts of overburden fractures in relation to coal mining. Different factors, such as geological conditions, mining conditions, and gas extraction methods, were compared because they influence GHGPC. Carbon emissions, coal mining safety, and environmental protection are crucial parameters. GHGPC can (1) improve the safety and efficiency of mining, (2) reduce GHG emissions, and (3) generate clean gas resources. During mining, cracks appear in overburden strata, causing GHG emissions. Various techniques, including scanning electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance, two-dimensional and three-dimensional physical similarity simulations, permeability testing, and numerical simulations, have been adopted to determine the macroscopic and microscopic features of overburden fractures. Finally, the extraction method of GHG was optimised through field practice, namely, roadway, borehole, and pipe extraction, were analysed, and the comprehensive GHG extraction method was preferred to achieve superior management results. This paper reviewed studies that examine the development of fractures to elucidate the significance of GHGPC. Moreover, this article provides new insights into the achievement of the "dual carbon strategy" with particular reference to coal mining; it also summarises the holistic life cycle of gas management in terms of overburden activity, gas transport patterns, reservoir characteristics and typical technologies. It also summarises the holistic life span of GHGPC management in terms of overburden activity, GHG transport patterns, reservoir characteristics, and typical technologies. Finally, the authors discuss and conclude the article with proposed methods for future research directions. • The role of GHGPC in carbon neutrality was talked about from various aspects. • Technologies for GHG transport, extraction, and utilisation were elaborated. • GHG extraction technologies in coal mining were introduced. • New energy supply and the dual carbon strategy in coal mining were described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems has been the concern of governments. Integrated energy system (IES) is affected by climate change during his operation, in order to study the impact of climate change on IES and achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems, this paper proposes an integrated machine learning(IML) to forecast the long-term load, then investigates IES costs and carbon emissions in relation to climate, followed by the establishment of carbon peak energy system(CPES) and carbon neutral energy system(CNES), finally the honey badger algorithm is used to optimize the configuration of CPES and CNES. The results show that: IML can accurately make load forecasts. Under climate change, changes in load reduce the cost and carbon emissions of IES, and changes in equipment efficiency increase the cost and carbon emissions of IES. When both are considered, the cost and carbon emissions of IES increase by 1.18% and 0.92% per decade respectively. The costs of CPES and CNES increase by 0.93% and 1% respectively for every 10 years earlier than the year of achievement. To meet China's "double carbon" goal, CPES and CNES need to increase their costs by 1.97% and 2% respectively. • Integrated machine learning proposed for long-term load forecasting. • Studied the impact of system equipment efficiency and load with climate change. • Proposing carbon peaking energy system to achieve the carbon peak goal. • Proposed carbon-neutral energy system to achieve carbon neutrality goal. • The increased costs of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutral were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine renewable energies can play a key role by reducing the dependency on fossil fuels and, therefore, mitigating climate change. Among them, it is expected that wave energy will experience rapid growth in the upcoming decades. Thus, it is important to know how wave climate will change and how suitable the wave energy converters (WECs) will be to the new wave conditions. This paper aims to evaluate the capability of four different WECs—a WaveRoller type device (WRTD), Atargis, AquaBuoy and RM5—to extract wave energy on the Northwest coast of Spain (NWCS). The analysis was performed using the high-resolution wave data obtained from the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model over the near future winters (2026–2045). The energy output (P E), the power load factor (ε), the normalized capture width (NC w) and the operational time (OT) were analyzed. According to these parameters, among the devices that work for intermediate-deep waters, Atargis would be the best option (P E = 1400 ± 56 kW, ε = 55.4 ± 2.2%, NC w = 35.5 ± 4.1% and OT = 84.5 ± 3.3%). The WRTD would also be a good option for shallow nearshore areas with P E = 427 ± 248 kW, ε = 12.8 ± 7.4%, NC w = 48.9 ± 9.6% and OT = 88.7 ± 18.9%. A combination of Atargis and WRTDs is proposed to make up the future wave energy farms on the NWCS. • Dynamical downscaling using SWAN to simulate near-shore wave conditions. • Wave energy converters suitability is analyzed in the context of climate change. • Atargis is the most suitable device to future sea conditions in intermediate waters. • WaveRoller type devices can constitute future wave farms for shallow waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complicated interrelationship between water and energy makes the water-energy dilemma a complex challenge to be tackled, especially considering the tradeoffs among decision-makers at different hierarchical levels and multiple uncertainties derived from climate change, socio-economic development, technical improvement and decision-making preferences. Thus, a water-energy nexus planning framework would be established in this paper to assist optimal decision-making with bi-level programming and multi-uncertainty. By integrating the regional climate model, multiple linear regression, and bi-level interval flexible programming, an integrated prediction optimization model would be developed as the core of the water-energy nexus planning framework. Then it is applied to planning Zhengzhou City over fifteen years. Multiple scenarios based on electricity demand-supply and carbon dioxide emission satisfaction degrees are analyzed leading to the results of (1) compared to the conventional single-level optimization method, the developed model can achieve the hierarchical goals of water saving and economic suitability; (2) renewable energy will be largely developed and its ratio to electricity generation will reach [26.30, 27.51] % under the limited water availability. Overall, the proposed water-energy nexus planning framework can achieve a balanced water-energy dilemma considering bi-level decision-making preferences and multi-uncertainties, which can be applied to planning water-energy nexus systems at a similar scale. • Regional climate model is used for predicting future electricity demands. • The proposed model addresses bi-level and multi-uncertainty. • Water-energy dilemma towards two different hierarchical levels is assessed. • Optimal solutions provide insights for managing similar scale studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy upgrading in rural areas is crucial to alleviating global climate change. The distributed utilization of biomass energy based on straw briquette fuel is highly feasible in rural areas, and the service scale of energy service stations for straw briquetting is a key factor affecting the investment cost of distributed planning scheme. Existing studies, however, have mostly focused on the "one plant for one village" mode that lacks clear data support. Using GIS (Global Information System), this paper has planned out an optimal layout mode of energy service stations under different service radii. Additionally, the investment costs (including equipment cost, plant cost, and transportation cost) of each layout mode have also been evaluated. Results show that larger service radius means lower initial investment cost and higher transportation cost. Based on the total investment cost calculated throughout the entire project lifecycle, a service radius of energy service stations of 1 km is recommended. Although the initial investment of a 1 km service radius is high, its operating cost is actually relatively low. Furthermore, from the fifth year on, the total investment of the planning scheme with a service radius of 1 km will fall below all other schemes, indicating the greatest economic and environmental benefits in the long term. • The optimal scale of energy service stations is determined. • The mode of "one plant for one village" is the least economical option. • Distributed layout planning of energy service stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limiting global warming well below 2 °C requires substantial increase in the installation of low-carbon electricity generation technologies (EGTs). EGTs however require several critical materials and materials associated with considerable energy, water and CO 2 emissions. This paper assesses the implications of materials and energy efficiencies for climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios (GETS). The analysis is carried out using a dynamic material flow-stock model for 21 materials and 15 scenarios combining GETS developed by international organizations including International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace (GP), materials scenarios, and energy, water, and emissions intensities scenarios. Materials related CO 2 emissions are expected to constitute between 4% and 14% the emissions reported in the IEA Sustainable Development scenario, while expected to be between 10% and 28% in GP Advanced Revolution scenario. Increasing material efficiency and reducing emissions intensities (driven by increasing energy efficiency, renewable technologies in energy supply mix, and recycling) reduce cumulative emissions by 73.2% and 26.3% respectively, while both reduce emissions by 79.5%. Increasing materials efficiency in EGT, energy and water efficiency in mining activities mainly for iron, aluminium, and nickel, and recycling, combined with careful selection of EGTs are significant to realize the full potential of GETS in climate change mitigation. • Materials and energy efficiencies implications for climate change mitigation potential of energy scenarios are assessed. • Dynamic material flow-stock model for 21 materials and 15 combined materials and energy scenarios are used. • Materials related CO 2 emissions constitute between 4% and 14% of emissions reported in IEA Sustainable Development scenario. • Increasing material efficiency and reducing emission intensities reduce cumulative emissions by 79.5%. • Increasing materials efficiency and recycling, and careful selection of EGT are significant for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy transitions towards green energy are taking place worldwide, motivated by climate change concerns. As the most used renewable technologies (i.e., wind, solar and hydro) have an unpredictable output, managing this variability is challenging. This paper uses a system dynamics approach to understand what type of regulation is required to successfully manage the simultaneous increase in demand and reduction in water resources in the Swiss electricity system, which is gradually replacing nuclear by solar generation. We address climate variability by running three climate scenarios while considering both demand side management and capacity auctions. Our findings indicate that, without government intervention, shortages occur and prices are higher. Subsidizing PV eliminates blackouts, decreases the electricity price and indirectly encourages Pumped Hydro-Storage investments. • We model a long-term transition from a nuclear-hydro to a PV-hydro generation mix. • We use IPCC scenarios to capture the impact of climate on demand and precipitations. • Relying on market-driven investments in PV and pumped-storage results in shortages. • Capacity payments for PV eliminate shortages but cause significant curtailment. • Demand-side management limits the need for curtailment resulting from PV penetration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decades, forecasting electricity demand has been crucial in energy planning and power distribution management to establish sustainable strategies in undeveloped countries. This work proposes an integrated approach to evaluate Pakistan's energy sector and holistically investigate electricity-load strategies to prioritize them and prevent future electricity crises. This paper proposes a renewable energy technologies-based system design to eliminate energy shortfalls. Deep learning models can predict fluctuating variation in energy consumption, crucial for designing renewable energy systems. The strengths – weaknesses – opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis identified relevant factors and sub-factors, while the fuzzy-TOPSIS methodology prioritized alternative strategies. The results show that driving the nation to the functionality of an energy hub by sufficiently using its geostrategic location within the regional cooperation framework is the critical dominant factor. Besides, improving the country's investment environment was the least favored priority. Baluchistan was found to have the highest potential for wind energy, with an ability to generate 3270 MWh/year through wind power. [Display omitted] • An integrated management approach is proposed to address electricity crisis. • The proposed strategical energy forecast and planning is studied for Pakistan. • Prioritize the indicated strategies for sustainable energy planning and development. • Turning the country into renewable energy hub is suitable for Pakistan's economy. • Baluchistan has the potential to generate 3270 MW power from wind power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global energy landscape is shifting rapidly, with a heightened emphasis on environmental protection. The oil and gas (O&G) industry is one of the biggest environmental polluters, accounting for 10% of all human-produced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and its products, including O&G, account for a further 33% of GHG emissions. Therefore, it is high time for the O&G sector to invest in decarbonisation to meet the global climate goal of zero emissions by 2050. This paper identifies 14 strategies to decarbonize the oil and gas supply chain (OGSC) from the extant literature. These 14 strategies pertain to the OGSC upstream, midstream, and downstream. Eight experts from the Iranian OGSC then rank these strategies. The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method and intuitionistic fuzzy sets are applied to explore the cause-and-effect relationships between decarbonisation strategies. A prominence relationship map is created for each stream in the OGSC to illustrate the influence of each strategy over other strategies. Results reveal that CO 2 flooding technology in upstream, renewable energy integration for transport in midstream, and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage systems downstream of OGSC are the most effective for OGSC decarbonisation. The main contribution of this study is to bring forward a supply chain wide examination of decarbonisation strategies as well as the prioritisation of these strategies so that researchers and practitioners can focus on the most promising ones. If appropriately implemented, identified decarbonisation strategies will help the OGSC supply chain become climate-friendly and facilitate the attainment of net-zero CO2 emissions. • To identify the OGSC decarbonisation strategies. • To prioritise decarbonisation strategies using the intuitionistic fuzzy DEMATEL framework. • To facilitate decision-making for an informed choice on decarbonisation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of climate change on heating, ventilation and airconditioning (HVAC) system performances has become prominent, and HVAC fault impacts may also vary with climate change. This paper evaluates the impacts of HVAC operational faults on system energy and occupant thermal comfort under the current, 2030s and 2050s climates using a validated model. The energy and thermal comfort impact indicators were proposed to rank single and multiple faults under each climate period. Supply fan stuck at maximum speed, and the combinations associated with this fault were ranked first in energy and thermal comfort rankings, respectively. Based on the investigations of multiple faults interactions, it is found that the synergetic/antagonistic effect of multiple faults combinations can lead to a significantly higher/lower combined impact than any single fault impact among the combination when the single faults present opposite impacts. Moreover, heating coil supply air temperature sensor negative bias, and the combination of thermostat positive offset and outdoor air damper stuck fully open led to the most increase system total electricity by 34.3 GJ and 35.3 GJ from current to 2050s period. The results are useful for researchers to prioritise the faults with significant impacts for developing fault detection and diagnosis framework. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources is increasingly vital as our energy systems transition towards higher levels of renewable generation. This paper explores power system transition under climate change impacts on hydro resources, as well as the impact of climate change on the cost of decarbonisation. An integrated energy systems assessment tool is used to investigate the impact of altered seasonal availability factors on the optimal energy investment pathways. The cost of decarbonisation is assessed under climate change impact on the hydro resources, as well as the impact of discount rate assumptions on the total cost of decarbonisation. Results show that in the case of New Zealand, more hydro will be available in winter due to climate change, but less in summer, which is compensated for with increased solar capacity. Decarbonisation in New Zealand sees a major transformation in the transport sector, supported by a relatively moderate increase in overall demand in the electricity sector. While climate change impact on the hydro resource may reduce the total cost of decarbonisation in New Zealand, this cannot be generalised, as these impacts vary across countries and regions. • Climate change amplifies seasonal availability of hydro in New Zealand. • Climate change has indirect effects on optimal long-term energy system investments. • Cost of decarbonisation decreases slightly due to climate change in New Zealand. • Trade-off between solar and wind to support hydro under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shallow ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) are a promising technology for contributing to the decarbonisation of the energy sector. In heating-dominated climates, the combined use of GSHPs for both heating and cooling increases their technical potential, defined as the maximum energy that can be exchanged with the ground, as the re-injection of excess heat from space cooling leads to a seasonal regeneration of the ground. This paper proposes a new approach to quantify the technical potential of GSHPs, accounting for effects of seasonal regeneration, and to estimate the useful energy to supply building energy demands at regional scale. The useful energy is obtained for direct heat exchange and for district heating and cooling (DHC) under several scenarios for climate change and market penetration levels of cooling systems. The case study in western Switzerland suggests that seasonal regeneration allows for annual maximum heat extraction densities above 300 kWh/m2 at heat injection densities above 330 kWh/m2. Results also show that GSHPs may cover up to 63% of cooling and 55% of heating demand for individual GSHPs in 2050 in Switzerland, which increases to 87% and 85% if DHC is used. The regional-scale results may serve to inform decision making on strategic areas for installing GSHPs. [Display omitted] • Technical potential of shallow ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) at regional scale. • Seasonal regeneration of GSHPs by re-injection of space cooling needs to the ground. • Useful potential for supplying building energy demand under three climate scenarios. • Impact of district heating and cooling (DHC) on the useful potential of GSHPs. • Case study in western Switzerland: Up to 87% of energy potentially supplied for DHC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, is a growing global concern, threatening world-wide environment, health and economy. Energy needs for buildings are a large source of greenhouse gas emissions. As the energy needs of buildings strongly depends on weather patterns, this paper investigates how climate change may impact building heating and cooling loads, cost-optimal efficiency measures, and renewable energy production. Eight locations (Stockholm, Milan, Vienna, Madrid, Paris, Munich, Lisbon, and Rome) highlight differences among European climates. Weather datasets, commonly used in building energy simulations, are evaluated to see how climatic parameters have changed over recent decades. A future climate change scenario (with uncertainties) is analyzed for the year 2060. Weather files are used to drive building energy simulations for a standard baseline and a (Nearly Zero Energy Building) NZEB residential building whose design is improved using a cost-optimization approach. The analysis indicates most currently available weather datasets cannot assure reliable results with building simulations. We find the energy balance in European buildings will significantly change under future conditions: heating will decrease by 38%–57%, while cooling will increase by +99%–380% depending on location. In future NZEBs, efficiency measures to reduce cooling needs and overheating will be favored (e.g. roof insulation, window type, solar shading, envelope finishes), illustrating how improving energy efficiency will be more crucial within climate change scenarios. Compared to the baseline, more efficient NZEBs will enable renewable energy to much better cover building needs. There will also be advantages from reducing winter and summer peak demand, particularly when coupled to short-term electrical storage. When solar resource is limited in winter, more airtight, better-insulated NZEBs improve PV self-consumption. • Climate change impact is studied in baseline and NZEBs in different climates. • Different weather datasets and a climate change scenario are simulated. • Future heating loads decrease by 38%–57%, cooling increase by +99%–380%. • Energy efficiency measures to reduce cooling and overheating are favored. • NZEBs enable renewable energy to much better cover building needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-à-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning. • Future climate affects the optimal configuration of a carbon-neutral power system. • Wind, solar and hydropower capacity factors under 22 climate projections. • Wind offshore is found to be a climate resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. • Solar PV is lower than in official carbon neutrality roadmap due to time resolution. • Seasonal electricity unitary costs are highly affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to develop the mathematical model of electricity based on renewable energy and large-scale utility (eRELU) networks to achieve a low-carbon economy. Huge petrochemical industries allocated in South Korea are considered to evaluate the proposed model by techno-economic and environmental assessment subject to Korean renewable energy policy. The suggested mathematical model consists of two parts: the deterministic model to optimize industrial-scale utility networks and the stochastic model to construct clean electricity networks using variable renewable energy coupled with energy storage systems to provide feasible quantities of renewable electricity required from the optimized utility network. The resulting model is complemented by carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems in doing so the inevitable amount of greenhouse gases from boilers in utility networks can be significantly captured. Diverse scenarios under the uncertain parameters such as facility investment/operating costs and capacity factors of renewable energy are applied to the developed model, and the results show that the best scenario-based eRELU-CCS network reduces 16% of the total costs and capture/mitigate 114 tCO 2 /d comparing to the base case. It is expected that the proposed model will play an essential role in advancing the country's energy transition. [Display omitted] • Mathematical model developed for renewable energy and large-scale utility network. • CCS technology is combined with the optimized utility network for low-carbon economy. • A case study of huge petrochemical industries in South Korea were applied. • Scenario-based techno-economic and environmental assessment was conducted. • 16% of total economic costs and 114 tCO 2 /d of GHG emissions were reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The threat of global climate change has caused the international community to pay close attention to atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Transportation sector carbon dioxide emissions efficiency (TSCDEE) is a key indicator used to prioritize sustainable development in the transportation sector. In this paper, the epsilon-based measure data envelopment analysis model with undesirable outputs is applied to estimate TSCDEE for 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2016. We also analyze influencing factors using the spatial Durbin model. Research shows that the overall TSCDEE of the Chinese provinces studied was 0.618, indicating that most regions are still in need of improvements. The provinces with the highest TSCDEE are located in developed coastal regions of China. This study shows that factors such as transportation structure, traffic infrastructure level, and technological progress have prominent positive effects on TSCDEE, while both urbanization level and urban population density exert significantly negative effects on TSCDEE. The findings should have a far-reaching impact on the sustainable development of global transportation. [Display omitted] • Providing more accurate method in estimating CO 2 emissions of the transport sector. • Focusing on the transportation sector carbon dioxide emissions efficiency (TSCDEE). • Technological progress is the key to improve TSCDEE among different factors in China. • Higher mode share of water and rail transport contributes to higher TSCDEE in China. • Urbanization presents significantly negative effect on TSCDEE in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local and state governments find it challenging to adopt aggressive residential building codes that require energy-efficiency upgrades beyond those with a reasonable payback. Thus, economic considerations inhibit the progress towards a more energy-efficient housing stock and often account for direct utility savings. A widely discussed solution is to look beyond energy costs and consider other impacts of energy-saving strategies that affect their financial attractiveness. In this paper, we examine the case of a public housing project in Phoenix, AZ, using several tools to calculate different economic, environmental, and health metrics associated with the three levels of energy efficiency. Our results show that while the payback calculated from direct energy costs may not be attractive, we should consider other savings. We demonstrate that avoided health and climate costs could total around 40% of the direct utility savings. In addition, we quantify how energy-saving strategies can cool the neighborhood, make buildings more resilient to heat, improve indoor air quality, and reduce the transmission of airborne disease. These benefits could be translated to avoid costs in the future. • We demonstrate looking beyond utility cost in assessing building energy efficiency. • Avoided health/climate costs are in the order of magnitude of direct utility savings. • We show that building efficiency can increase the hours comfortable for window use. • Thus reducing the risk of indoor airborne disease transmission per Wells-Riley method. • Efficiency reduces indoor & outdoor (shown via an urban canyon model) heat exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]