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Abstract Giving policy advice related to climate mitigation requires insights that take both sectoral and technology effects (and their interactions) into account. This paper develops a novel soft-linking method for bridging the gap between sectoral top-down and technology rich bottom-up models. A unique feature of the approach is the explicit modelling of energy service demand in the top-down model, which creates a direct correspondence to the energy service production in the bottom-up model. This correspondence allows us, unlike previous work, to capture the macroeconomic impact of energy system investment flows. The paper illustrates the full-scale application of the method in the Danish IntERACT model, considering the unilateral introduction of coal carbon capture and storage in the Danish concrete sector. The policy leads to a reduction in the Danish concrete production, and in turn, a carbon leakage effect of 88%. Results also underscores the importance of accounting for the macroeconomic impact of energy system investment flows, as this is the source of approximately half of the policy-induced reduction in macroeconomic activity. Highlights • Introduces energy service demands in a computable general equilibrium model. • Identifies a highly consistent method for soft linking a top-down and a bottom-up model. • Highlights the full scale implementation of the method in the Danish IntERACT model. • Demonstrates the impact of energy system investments on the macro economy. • Shows that climate mitigation technologies may lead to significant carbon leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper delves into the potential impact of a changing climate on the energy performance of European buildings. Research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of current energy requirements focusing on the envelope, considering existing regulations in national policies. Energy simulations are conducted at 94 locations across the European Union to cover the climatic variability and Koppen climate classification. The research analyzes future climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070, using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). According to a comprehensive analysis of heating, cooling, and overall energy performance, climate plays a significant role in buildings' energy balance. In moderately cool climate countries, the demand for air conditioning is projected to decrease in the years ahead. Conversely, in countries with a warm climate, there is a projected increase in the overall energy demand. Consequently, a revision of current energy regulations should be a priority. Providing insights into the relation between building design, energy efficiency, and climate change, the research identifies policy adjustments to ensure buildings can effectively respond to changing climatic conditions. A holistic and dynamic approach can support building design accounting for long-term impacts of climate change to create resilient and energy-efficient structures. • National building energy regulations of European Member States do not tackle climate change. • Over next decades, a decrease in heating demand is forecasted across all climate zones. • There is potential for a future considerable increase of cooling demand in Europe. • A reduction in total building energy demand in colder climates and an increase in warmer climates can be expected. • Revise national energy regulations, especially in warmer zones, to curb the expected rise in Europe's total energy demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reviewed the history of the evolution of low-carbon development strategies and the establishment of low-carbon targets in China, over the past 30 years. The climate policy development in China has been classified into four stages and the key strategies of the Chinese government adopted towards low-carbon development were analysed. The results showed the changing view of the government regarding the climate issue, was the underlying reason for the establishment of low-carbon development targets, whilst a low-carbon economy is now receiving increasing attention in the governance of China. Some recommendations for future improvement were given at the end of the paper. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Due to the growing concerns about global climate change and energy dependence, many countries have introduced regulations targeting the energy efficiency of the residential sector. However, whether these policies have been effective in reducing the total residential consumption of energy is still unclear. In this paper, we analyze the impact of residential energy efficiency policies on household energy consumption across Europe for the period 1980–2016. We examine the electricity and non-electricity energy consumption separately, as these are generally used for different purposes (appliances and heating) by households and are subject to different energy efficiency policies. We focus on two distinct types of regulations – mandatory energy efficiency labels for household appliances and building standards. After controlling for county-specific effects and changes in income, energy prices, demography and climate conditions over our sample period, our results offer compelling evidence that both the energy labeling requirements for appliances and the stricter building codes lead up to lower residential energy consumption. According to our estimation results, we should expect a 0.24% reduction in residential electricity use after governments introduce a mandatory disclosure of energy labels for an appliance group that represent ten percent of households' electricity use. Similarly, given that U-values proxy the thermal quality of the new dwellings, we find that a 0.1 unit decrease in the U-value requirement triggers a lasting 0.28% annual decrease in residential non-electricity energy consumption. These results can help policymakers to shape future regulations targeted on reducing our energy use in the years to come. Highlights • We analyze the impact of energy efficiency policies on households' energy demand. • Electricity demand decreases after the introduction of energy labeling policy. • Stricter building standards lead to a reduction in residential energy demand. • The effects are stronger with higher construction and appliance ownership rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt's power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt's energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt's Vision 2030 , and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions' mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society. Highlights • Egypt energy strategies call for GHG reductions and diversified energy portfolios. • Egypt can diversify from natural gas to a mix-supply to improve energy security. • Enhanced promotion of renewables would reduce fossil fuel dependency by 42% by 2050. • The long-term cost of pursuing renewable technologies is not significantly higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change response, including the implementation of the Kyoto targets as the first step, calls for technological innovation of future sustainable energy systems. Based on the Danish case, this paper evaluates the type of technological change necessary. During a period of 30 years, Denmark managed to stabilize primary energy supply, and CO2 emissions decreased by 10%, during a period of 20 years. However, after the introduction of the Kyoto Mechanisms, Denmark has changed its strategy. Instead of continuing the domestic CO2 emission controls, Denmark plans to buy CO2 reductions in other countries. Consequently, the innovative technological development has changed. This paper evaluates the character of such change and makes preliminary recommendations for policies to encourage the use of the Kyoto Mechanisms as an acceleration of the necessary technological innovation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply and low-carbon strategies for the Philippine power sector from 2014 to 2040 using TIMES model. It examines the potential contribution of renewable energy to diversify the Philippine energy supply-mix to meet future electricity demands. The reference scenario compares the impact of four alternative policy goals: (1) carbon tax, (2) targeted renewable-based power generation, (3) limited coal share in supply-mix, and (4) renewables subsidy. The reference scenario shows a significant increase of the share of coal-based power generation and import dependency of fossil-fuel increases from 227 PJ in 2016 to 1073 PJ in 2040. The model results for the alternative policy scenarios show a large potential for renewable energy-based power generation. The alternative policy options show a significant decrease of import dependency in the energy supply-mix for power generation. Most alternative policy scenarios project a higher total system cost, with the exception of the subsidy scenario. System cost increases only 2.6% in the renewables target scenario relative to the reference scenario. However, long-term benefits from investing in the alternative policy options would need to be considered, including diversification of energy supply-mix, improved energy security, and progress toward a low-carbon society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy transitions towards green energy are taking place worldwide, motivated by climate change concerns. As the most used renewable technologies (i.e., wind, solar and hydro) have an unpredictable output, managing this variability is challenging. This paper uses a system dynamics approach to understand what type of regulation is required to successfully manage the simultaneous increase in demand and reduction in water resources in the Swiss electricity system, which is gradually replacing nuclear by solar generation. We address climate variability by running three climate scenarios while considering both demand side management and capacity auctions. Our findings indicate that, without government intervention, shortages occur and prices are higher. Subsidizing PV eliminates blackouts, decreases the electricity price and indirectly encourages Pumped Hydro-Storage investments. • We model a long-term transition from a nuclear-hydro to a PV-hydro generation mix. • We use IPCC scenarios to capture the impact of climate on demand and precipitations. • Relying on market-driven investments in PV and pumped-storage results in shortages. • Capacity payments for PV eliminate shortages but cause significant curtailment. • Demand-side management limits the need for curtailment resulting from PV penetration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global energy landscape is shifting rapidly, with a heightened emphasis on environmental protection. The oil and gas (O&G) industry is one of the biggest environmental polluters, accounting for 10% of all human-produced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and its products, including O&G, account for a further 33% of GHG emissions. Therefore, it is high time for the O&G sector to invest in decarbonisation to meet the global climate goal of zero emissions by 2050. This paper identifies 14 strategies to decarbonize the oil and gas supply chain (OGSC) from the extant literature. These 14 strategies pertain to the OGSC upstream, midstream, and downstream. Eight experts from the Iranian OGSC then rank these strategies. The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method and intuitionistic fuzzy sets are applied to explore the cause-and-effect relationships between decarbonisation strategies. A prominence relationship map is created for each stream in the OGSC to illustrate the influence of each strategy over other strategies. Results reveal that CO 2 flooding technology in upstream, renewable energy integration for transport in midstream, and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage systems downstream of OGSC are the most effective for OGSC decarbonisation. The main contribution of this study is to bring forward a supply chain wide examination of decarbonisation strategies as well as the prioritisation of these strategies so that researchers and practitioners can focus on the most promising ones. If appropriately implemented, identified decarbonisation strategies will help the OGSC supply chain become climate-friendly and facilitate the attainment of net-zero CO2 emissions. • To identify the OGSC decarbonisation strategies. • To prioritise decarbonisation strategies using the intuitionistic fuzzy DEMATEL framework. • To facilitate decision-making for an informed choice on decarbonisation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy and climate market policy is inherently multiobjective and multilevel, in that desired choices often conflict and are made at a higher level than influenced actors. Analyzing tradeoff between reducing emissions and keeping fuel prices low, while seeking compromise among producers, traders, and consumers is the crux of the policy problem. This paper aims to address this issue by combining multiobjective optimization problems, which allow the study of tradeoff between choices, with equilibrium problems that model the networks and players over which these policies are chosen, to produce a formulation called a Multiobjective Program with Equilibrium Constraints. We apply this formulation to the United States renewable fuel market to help understand why it has been so difficult in releasing the 2014 mandate for the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard). The RFS ensures that a minimum volume of renewable fuel is included in transportation fuel sold in the United States. Determining the RFS volume requirements involves anticipating market reaction as well as balancing policy objectives. We provide policy alternatives to aid in setting these volume obligations that are applicable to a wide variety of climate and energy market settings and explain why the RFS is not an optimal policy for reducing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution and climate change increased the importance of renewable energy resources like solar energy in the last decades. Rack-mounted PhotoVoltaics (PV) and Building Integrated PhotoVoltaics (BIPV) are the most common photovoltaic systems which convert incident solar radiation on façade or surrounding area to electricity. In this paper the performance of different solar cell types is evaluated for the tropical weather of Singapore. As a case study, on-site measured data of PV systems implemented in a zero energy building in Singapore, is analyzed. Different types of PV systems (silicon wafer and thin film) have been installed on rooftop, façade, car park shelter, railing and etc. The impact of different solar cell generations, arrays environmental conditions (no shading, dappled shading, full shading), orientation (South, North, East or West facing) and inclination (between PV module and horizontal direction) is investigated on performance of modules. In the second stage of research, the whole PV systems in the case study are simulated in EnergyPlus energy simulation software with several PV performance models including Simple, Equivalent one-diode and Sandia. The predicted results by different models are compared with measured data and the validated model is used to provide simulation-based energy yield predictions for wide ranges of scenarios. It has been concluded that orientation of low-slope rooftop PV has negligible impact on annual energy yield but in case of PV external sunshade, east façade and panel slope of 30–40° are the most suitable location and inclination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Energy and climate change is a key priority issue mentioned by the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development (MSSD) which explicitly claims that “Control, reduce or stabilize GhG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions” is a crucial target for Mediterranean countries. This paper uses the integrated assessment model IFs (International Futures) to implement a scenario analysis to investigate the mitigation potential of Mediterranean regions. It analyzes if the Mediterranean regions will be able to reach the MSSD climate change target and recommends amendments of the MSSD to implement with effectiveness climate change policies in the Mediterranean area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Nuclear energy can play a very significant long-term role for meeting the world’s increasing energy demands, while simultaneously addressing challenges associated with global climate and environmental impact. Many nations of the world, particularly the Asia/Pacific Rim countries, are actively engaged in a major expansion of their nuclear energy complex. The degree to which nuclear energy can address long-term energy needs, either globally or regionally, will be dictated by the pace and adequacy of technical and policy solutions for waste, safety, security, and non-proliferation issues, as well as the capital cost of construction. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could successfully address several of these issues. SMRs offer simpler, standardized, and safer modular design by being factory built, requiring smaller initial capital investment, and having shorter construction times. The SMRs could be small enough to be transportable, could be used in isolated locations without advanced infrastructure and without power grid, or could be clustered in a single site to provide a multi-module, large capacity power plant. This paper summarizes some of the basic features of SMRs for early deployment, several advanced SMR concepts, and points out the benefits and challenges in regulatory, economical, safety and security issues. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper identifies the main features of CO2 emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China''s future energy requirements and projects its CO2 emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China''s rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO2 intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO2 emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country''s economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO2 emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight “bottom-up” model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that “keeping the hydrogen option open” does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]