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Previous studies suggested that Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulations on pan‐Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability and prediction are model‐dependent. These results were mainly based on SST forcing experiments in which AMV‐related Atlantic SST anomalies were prescribed. However, the AMV itself is also model‐dependent, but its influences on the Pacific remain unclear. Here, we use multi‐model fully coupled experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with observations, to study the model‐dependent AMV trans‐basin effects. We found that AMV strength is a key factor: Stronger (Weaker) model AMV than observations overestimates (underestimates) SST response and decadal prediction skills, mainly in the North Pacific. The reason is that stronger positive phased AMV, for example, leads to higher sea level pressure anomalies over the North Pacific, which lifts sea surface height and deepens thermocline to warm SST. Our study highlights the necessity to improve simulations of AMV strength. Plain Language Summary: Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) decadal variability and prediction are important for economy and environment. The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) was thought to significantly influence Pacific SST variability and prediction. However, the results of previous studies were model‐dependent. In this paper, we use fully coupled experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to study what contributes to the model dependency. We found that the strength of the AMV is a key factor influencing AMV trans‐basin modulations on SST variability and decadal prediction, mainly in the North Pacific Ocean. The related mechanisms are discussed. Our paper sheds light on the way to improve North Pacific SST decadal prediction. Key Points: Climate models show a strong inter‐model spread of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) strengthModels with stronger (weaker) AMV than observations overestimate (underestimate) North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response and decadal predictionThe North Pacific SST response is primarily forced by AMV‐induced wind stress curl and ocean dynamics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) vary not only due to heat exchange across the air‐sea interface but also due to changes in effective heat capacity as primarily determined by mixed layer depth (MLD). Here, we investigate seasonal and regional characteristics of the contribution of MLD anomalies to the month‐to‐month variability of SST using observational datasets. First, we propose a metric called Flux Divergence Angle, which can quantify the relative contributions of surface heat fluxes and MLD anomalies to SST variability. Using this metric, we find that MLD anomalies tend to amplify SST anomalies in the extra‐tropics, especially in the eastern ocean basins, during spring and summer. In contrast, MLD anomalies tend to suppress SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific during December‐January‐February. This paper provides the first global picture of the observed importance of MLD anomalies to the local SST variability. Plain Language Summary: Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the important indicators as well as drivers of climate variability over the globe. SST varies not only due to changes in surface heat fluxes but also due to changes in effective heat capacity as mainly determined by mixed layer depth (MLD). However, the observed characteristics of the latter process associated with the MLD anomalies are limited. In this study, we propose a new metric called "Flux Divergence Angle (FDA)," which can quantify the relative importance of MLD and surface heat flux to the SST variability. Using this metric, we find that the MLD anomalies tend to amplify the local SST variability in the extra‐tropics during spring and summer. On the other hand, MLD anomalies tend to suppress the SST variability in the eastern tropical Pacific during December‐January‐February. This paper provides, for the first time, the global picture of relative importance of MLD anomalies to the SST variability based on observations. Key Points: Relative contributions of mixed layer depth (MLD) and surface heat flux anomalies to sea surface temperature (SST) variability are investigated using the Flux Divergence Angle metricMLD anomalies tend to amplify SST anomalies in the extra‐tropics, especially in eastern part of ocean basin, during the spring and summerMLD anomalies tend to suppress SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific during December‐January‐February [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses a critical gap in understanding anthropogenic influences on tropical climate dynamics by investigating the impact of aerosol‐cloud interactions on large‐scale circulation. Despite extensive research on greenhouse gas‐induced warming and its effects on tropical circulation, the impact of aerosols, particularly their interactions with clouds, on large‐scale circulation remains understudied. Utilizing large‐domain radiative convective equilibrium cloud‐resolving simulations, this research demonstrates that increasing aerosol concentration intensifies tropical overturning circulation, evaluated at the mid‐troposphere (I) $(\mathcal{I})$, strongly correlating with domain mean cloud and radiative properties. Employing a weak temperature gradient approximation, I attribute variations in I $\mathcal{I}$ to changes in clear‐sky radiative cooling rather than stability. These radiative cooling changes are linked to humidity changes driven by warm rain suppression by aerosols. This study's findings underscore the need to take into account microphysical changes, particularly aerosol concentrations, when studying anthropogenic effects on tropical circulation. Plain Language Summary: Clouds intricately couple with the large‐scale overturning circulation in the tropics. Aerosols, small particles suspended in the atmosphere, interact with clouds. Thus, changes in aerosols concentration (Na) have the potential to affect cloud properties and by that the large‐scale circulation, with important implications for tropical climate and climate change. Despite this crucial relationship, the subject has been insufficiently explored. In this paper, I use a simplified, yet realistic, representation of the tropical atmosphere—radiative convective equilibrium large‐domain cloud‐resolving simulations—to investigate the effect of aerosol‐cloud interaction on overturning tropical circulation. By varying Na under diverse sea surface temperatures, I demonstrate that the strength of the overturning circulation intensifies with increasing Na. Utilizing a semi‐analytical expression for subsidence strength in clear‐sky tropical regions, I show that the intensified overturning circulation with increased Na can be attributed to heightened humidity in the mid‐troposphere, leading to intense radiative cooling. This mid‐tropospheric humidification can be explained by warm rain suppression by aerosols, which fosters stronger humidity mixing between clouds and their surroundings. These findings underscore the need to consider aerosol concentration changes when examining anthropogenic impacts on tropical circulation. Key Points: The overturning tropical circulation intensifies with aerosol concentration in a radiative convective equilibrium modelChanges in circulation strength can be explained by changes in diabatic subsidence driven by radiative changesRadiative changes can be explained by increased humidity at the mid‐troposphere due to warm rain suppression [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies suggested that tropical sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) through mixing and entrainment and thus it may be a signal for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. This paper explores the influence of SSS on ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB) using an empirical dynamic model ‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By coupling and decoupling SSS in the LIM, we find that tropical Pacific SSS plays a significant role in weakening both Central‐Pacific and Eastern‐Pacific ENSO SPB. The evolution of optimal initial structure also shows the importance of SSS dynamics in ENSO. We found an SSS mode that plays the dominant role in SSS impacting ENSO prediction. By the analysis of lead‐lag correlation, we find that this mode can induce easterlies during the spring, which finally leads to a La Niña‐like SST pattern in the winter through zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: The spring predictability barrier (SPB) is a phenomenon of forecast skill reduction of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when it comes to the boreal spring, regardless of the initial month. Sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence sea surface temperature by altering sea surface density and thus it may be a signal for ENSO prediction. Using a linear dynamical model, we find that SSS plays an important role in improving the forecast skill of ENSO and weakening SPB. We further find that SSS can induce the easterlies during the spring, which finally leads to a La Niña‐like SST pattern. Our study suggests that SSS can be used to predict ENSO about 1 year later. Key Points: A linear dynamical model suggests that taking sea surface salinity (SSS) into consideration can strongly weaken Central‐Pacific and Eastern‐Pacific El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier (SPB)A new SSS mode is found to be important for weakening ENSO SPBThe SSS mode can predict ENSO events about 1 year earlier by inducing sea surface temperature and wind anomalies in the early spring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annular structure of Antarctic oscillation (AAO) is a research hotpot, but its asymmetry receives less attention. In this paper, the self‐organizing map method is employed to cluster the AAO patterns into symmetric and asymmetric modes in austral autumn. The asymmetry is mainly reflected in the Pacific‐Atlantic sector, and the AAO evolves toward asymmetric positive polarity, with the most pronounced asymmetry in May. Originating from near Australia, the asymmetry indicates a zonal wave train in the Pacific‐Atlantic sector. Both modeled and observed results demonstrate that the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific stimulates a local meridional circulation anomaly and induces anomalous Rossby wave sources near Australia subsequently. An anomalous wave train propagating toward the Antarctic Peninsula is formed, and the associated geopotential anomaly enhances the asymmetry of AAO. Asymmetric AAO is conducive to the Antarctic dipole, which modulates the air temperature and sea ice anomalies around Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: The zonal symmetry of the Antarctic oscillation (AAO; also named southern annular mode) is well known to researchers, while the zonal asymmetry has received less attention. We use a clustering method to cluster the AAO modes in austral autumn into symmetric modes and asymmetric modes. The asymmetry of AAO is mainly reflected in the Pacific‐Atlantic sector. The results show that the AAO mode evolves to a positive asymmetric mode, and the asymmetry is most obvious in May. Both simulations and observations suggest that this asymmetry stems from sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific that stimulates an anomalous local meridional circulation near Australia, and in turn triggers an anomalous wave train propagating toward the Antarctic Peninsula. The associated geopotential anomalies enhance the asymmetry of AAO. The asymmetric AAO favors the Antarctic dipole, regulating the air temperature and sea ice anomalies around Antarctica. Key Points: Via a cluster method, we obtained the zonal asymmetric Antarctic oscillation (AAO) mode, and analyzed its trend and preferred monthThe source of its asymmetry is from the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical western PacificThe asymmetric AAO mode has a vital influence on the Antarctic dipole [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy‐driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Plain Language Summary: Climate models have the capability to predict the evolution of mean atmospheric circulation over long timescales, from annual to decadal and longer. However, models are overestimating the chaotic, unpredictable component of the climate's variability and, although model predictions follow the observed oscillations of the climate, the strength of these oscillations is critically underestimated. While climate models have demonstrated skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), this paper assesses model skill in predicting the evolution of the wintertime North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet, with the aim to highlight how much of the predictive skill of the NAO is derived from accurate predictions of the jet's state. We find levels of skill similar to that for the NAO, with slightly higher skill for the jet's strength (speed) over its location (latitude of maximum speed). We also notice a drop in skill over the last decade, as models fail to capture the latest trends in the NAO and jet's evolution, and suggest that it might be related to degradation in skill at predicting surface temperature variability. Key Points: The winter North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet is predictable on decadal time‐scales with skill in jet speed comparable to that for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)Anomalies in the jet are substantially smaller than expected from skill alone and so suffer from noise overestimationSkill drops significantly in the last decade, as hindcasts do not capture the return to positive NAO conditions post‐2010 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blooms of various types of seaweeds have been reported worldwide, with recent expansions in surface waters. While most of the expansions have been attributed to eutrophication due mainly to human activities, any potential role of climate change is unclear. Here we show that, in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea, increased biomass of Sargassum horneri (S. horneri, brown seaweed) from 2000 to 2021 appears to be caused primarily by ocean warming, as S. horneri prefers a certain temperature range to grow. In contrast, while increases of Ulva prolifera (U. prolifera, green seaweed) in the same regions might also be related to ocean warming, during the same period, human activities such as coastal aquaculture or seaweed mitigation may muddle such effects. With the projected ocean warming in the next decades, we hypothesize that S. horneri blooms may occur earlier during the year and may continue to expand in the future. Plain Language Summary: Seaweed macroalgae blooms have been reported around the world in the last two decades, yet the exact reasons are often unclear. This paper attempts to solve this puzzle for the Sargassum and Ulva seaweeds in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea using long‐term observations and laboratory‐based seaweed physiology measurements. The paper shows not only how seaweeds have expanded in the two marginal seas in the past four decades, but also how a warming ocean (due to climate variability) and nutrient enrichment (due mainly to human activities) controlled such expansions. Among 63 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the world, the East China Sea (where seaweeds expanded) is one of the three LMEs that experienced "super‐fast" warming. Given the IPCC‐projected seawater temperature rise of 1.6°C by 2050, will these seaweeds continue to expand? Key Points: Multi‐sensor satellite data show significant and near‐synchronized expansions of Sargassum horneri and Ulva prolifera in the past 38 yearsOcean warming appears to be a main factor behind the recent expansions of S. horneri because of its physiological requirementOcean warming may also play a role in U. prolifera expansions, but the effect appears confounded by human mitigation efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we obtained the first leading mode and principal component 1 (PC1) of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The PC1‐related SST anomalies, located relatively north/south, are referred to as North/South PC1 events. Model outputs, observations, reanalysis datasets and sensitivity experiments show that during the North PC1 events, an enhanced Aleutian low occurs and is located relatively north, favoring anomalous southerlies over western North America. The anomalous southerlies induce a strong warming anomaly over North America via warm advection of the anomalous southerlies and temperature advection of the climatological westerlies over North America. However, the Aleutian low anomaly and corresponding southerly anomaly associated with South PC1 events shift southward, favoring weakened effects of South PC1 events on atmospheric circulations and surface temperatures over North America. The meridional position of PC1 events deserves to be considered in the studies of the PC1 and its related climate changes. Plain Language Summary: Understanding of surface temperature variations is important since it largely affects human and society. This paper categorizes the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly events, which are associated with the first leading mode of North Pacific sea surface temperature, into North and South events according to their meridional positions. Using model outputs, observations, reanalysis datasets and sensitivity experiments, we found that the surface temperature anomalies over North America during the North events are quite different from those during the South events. During the North events, an enhanced Aleutian low occurs over high‐latitude North Pacific. The enhanced Aleutian low tends to induce anomalous southerlies over western North America. The anomalous southerlies favor warming anomalies over North America via the warm advection of anomalous southerlies and temperature advection of climatological westerly. However, the Aleutian low anomaly and meridional wind anomaly during the South events shift southward, leading to weakened effects of the South events on atmospheric circulations and surface temperatures over North America. Key Points: North American warming anomaly occurs during North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly events located northThe warming anomaly is related to an enhanced Aleutian low anomaly located north and climatological westerlyDuring the events located south, North American surface temperature responses are weak due to a southward‐shift Aleutian low anomaly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Downstream of Cape Hatteras, the Gulf Stream (GS) is bounded to the north by a sharp temperature front known as the North Wall (NW). Previous studies have generally assumed that variations of the NW and GS are equivalent. Using satellite sea surface height to identify the GS and the 15 °C isotherm at 200‐m depth to represent the NW, this paper examines their similarities and differences during 1993–2016. The NW and GS are geographically close and vary similarly only to the west of 71°W. Downstream of that, they rapidly diverge—and the variances of their latitudes increase by more than a factor of 2—as the GS flows past the New England Seamounts. Evidence is presented to show that the difference in properties of the NW and the GS is related to the presence of mesoscale eddies in the region separating them. Plain‐Language Summary: To the east of Cape Hatteras where the Gulf Stream leaves the continental shelf, a sharp gradient in ocean temperature, known as the North Wall, is seen just north of the current. Fluctuations in the position of the North Wall have large impacts in the distribution of heat in the North Atlantic and on plankton populations. There is a widespread assumption in the literature that variations of the North Wall and the Gulf Stream are similar. Results presented in this paper show that variations of these two features become increasingly different as the current proceeds eastward and the divergence in their properties is due to the presence of turbulent eddies, which arise after the Gulf Stream interacts with the New England Seamounts. These results suggest that recognition of distinct behaviors of the Gulf Stream and the North Wall is needed for a better understanding of their dynamics and their impact on climate. Key Points: The Gulf Stream and its North Wall are close to each other west of 71°W but depart sharply in their properties farther downstreamDifferences in the behaviors of the Gulf Stream and the North Wall are related to mesoscale eddies between themRecognition of distinct properties of Gulf Stream and the North Wall is necessary for understanding their dynamics and impact on climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impacts of tropical Atlantic on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability through an empirical dynamical model‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By selectively including or excluding the coupling between tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific in LIM, we find that the tropical Atlantic dynamics significantly improve the Eastern Pacific (EP)‐ENSO prediction and weaken the EP‐ENSO predictability barrier (PB), with the Equatorial Atlantic (EA) mode playing a more important role than the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) mode. The tropical Atlantic impacts on Central Pacific (CP)‐ENSO predictability and PB are relatively smaller. Consistent with observations, the tropical Atlantic can weaken PB in most CMIP6 models. The evolution of the tropical Atlantic optimum initial structures confirms the important influence of the EA mode on the eastern tropical Pacific. Therefore, the tropical Atlantic dynamics, especially the EA mode, should be appropriately considered to improve the prediction of EP‐ENSO and weaken the EP‐ENSO PB. Plain Language Summary: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climate modes in the tropical Pacific on interannual timescales, with significant global impacts. The tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability, especially in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and equatorial Atlantic (EA), is shown to have important impacts on ENSO variability. Using a linear dynamical model, we find that including the dynamics of the tropical Atlantic, especially the EA SST mode, can significantly improve the forecast skill of Eastern Pacific ENSO and weaken the EP‐ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB), which is a sudden reduction of ENSO prediction skill in the boreal spring. However, Central Pacific (CP)‐ENSO's forecast skill is less influenced by the tropical Atlantic dynamic. Consistent with the observations, the topical Atlantic can weaken ENSO SPB in most CMIP6 climate models. Our results suggest that the tropical Atlantic dynamics should be appropriately considered to improve the forecast skill of EP‐ENSO. Key Points: A linear dynamical model is used to study the impact of the tropical Atlantic on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictabilityTropical Atlantic dynamics can improve Eastern Pacific (EP)‐ENSO predictability and weaken EP‐ENSO spring predictability barrier while the impact on Central Pacific‐ENSO is limitedThe Equatorial Atlantic mode plays an important role in the tropical Atlantic influence of EP‐ENSO prediction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates sea surface temperature (SST) biases of coupled models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better than CMIP5 ones in reproducing SST climatology, with lower multi‐model ensemble mean (MME) globally averaged absolute bias (1.17 vs. 1.31 K). MME bias in global mean annual SST shifts from cooling (−0.09 ± 0.52 K) to warming (0.23 ± 0.60 K). Regionally, in CMIP6 cooling biases over the Northwest Pacific and North Atlantic are reduced by 20% and 18%, while warming biases over the Northeast Pacific, Southeast Atlantic and Southern Ocean are increased by 25%, 16% and 107% respectively. These changes are mainly attributed to the combined effects from aggravated positive (or alleviated negative) bias in clear‐sky surface downward longwave radiation, and alleviated negative bias in cloud radiative effect, partially reduced by enhanced cooling bias in clear‐sky surface downward shortwave radiation. Plain Language Summary: As the primary approach to projecting future climate change, state‐of‐the‐art climate models still suffer pronounced biases in climatological annual mean sea surface temperature (SST), such as cold biases over the Northwest Pacific and North Atlantic, and warm biases over the Northeast Pacific, Southeast Pacific, Southeast Atlantic and Southern Ocean. We have evaluated the changes in mean‐state SST biases between the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6. CMIP6 models perform better in reproducing SST climatology with lower absolute bias, which is attributed to the process‐level improvement. Overall, annual global mean SST bias shifts from cold (−0.09 ± 0.52 K) to warm (0.23 ± 0.60 K), which is mainly due to the regionally alleviated cooling biases or aggravated warming biases. This warmer shift is contributed by the increased positive (or decreased negative) bias in clear‐sky surface downward longwave radiation and decreased negative bias in cloud radiative effect. Key Points: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models perform better than CMIP5 ones, with significantly lower global‐mean absolute bias in annual sea surface temperature (SST)Global‐mean SST bias is with a warmer shift (+0.32 K) in CMIP6, with salient regional cold biases alleviated and warm biases aggravatedReduced cold bias in cloud radiative effect and positive change in bias in clear‐sky surface downward longwave together account for the shift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 1990s the Pacific Walker circulation shows a multi‐decadal strengthening, which contradicts future model projections. Whether this trend, evident in many climate indices especially before the 2015 El Niño, reflects the coupled ocean‐atmosphere response to global warming or the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains debated. Here we show that sea surface temperature trends during 1980–2020 are dominated by three signals: a spatially uniform warming trend, a negative PDO pattern, and a Northern Hemisphere‐Indo‐West Pacific warming pattern. The latter pattern, which closely resembles the transient ocean thermostat‐like response to global warming emerging in a subset of CMIP6 models, shows cooling in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific but warming in the western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Together with the PDO, this pattern drives the Walker circulation strengthening in the equatorial band. Historical simulations appear to underestimate this pattern, contributing to the models' inability to replicate the Walker cell strengthening. Plain Language Summary: This paper investigates the observed changes in the tropical Pacific during the satellite era, including the recent decadal strengthening of the atmospheric zonal circulation—the Walker cell. We aim to understand the extent to which these changes represent a forced response to rising CO2 concentrations versus natural variability. We apply an approach in which we decompose the observed sea surface temperature trends into three components—a pattern associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is part of natural variability, a uniform warming pattern, and a residual pattern. This residual pattern shows a remarkable resemblance to a forced ocean thermostat‐like transient response generated in some of the climate models, characterized by equatorial Pacific (EP) cooling, and a broad warming of the Northern Hemisphere, and the Indian Ocean and West Pacific. These results challenge studies arguing that the recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker cell can be explained simply by multi‐decadal natural variability in the tropics. Furthermore, the inability of climate models at large to fully capture this forced pattern with historical forcing puts into focus the reliability of future projections of climate change in the tropical Pacific, specifically the timing of emergence of the eastern EP warming. Key Points: A multi‐decadal strengthening of the Pacific Walker cell is observed in a wide range of indices, especially after 1990A Northern Hemisphere ‐ Indo West Pacific warming sea surface temperature pattern, which differs from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, is evident since 1980This pattern resembles a forced response to abrupt CO2 forcing, emerging in a subset of climate models, and contributes to the Walker circulation strenthening [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong sea‐surface temperature (SST) gradient associated with the Gulf Stream (GS) is widely acknowledged to play an important role in shaping mid‐latitude weather and climate. Despite this, an index for the GS SST gradient has not yet been standardized in the literature. This paper introduces a monthly index for the large‐scale SST gradient across the separated GS based on the time‐varying GS position detected from sea‐surface height. Analysis suggests that the variations in the monthly average SST gradient throughout the year result primarily from SST variability to the north of the GS, with little contribution from SST to the south. The index exhibits a weak periodicity at ∼2 years. Sea level pressure and turbulent heat flux patterns suggest that variability in the large‐scale SST gradient is related to atmospheric (rather than oceanic) forcing. Ocean‐to‐atmosphere feedback does not persist throughout the year, but there is some evidence of wintertime feedback. Plain Language Summary: The Gulf Stream is a narrow and fast‐flowing oceanic boundary current that transports warm tropical water north along the coast of Florida and out into the North Atlantic past Cape Hatteras. It is a region where sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) change dramatically over very short distances with much cooler temperatures on one side of the Gulf Stream (GS) (to the north) and warmer temperatures on the other side (to the south). This strong change in SST across the GS is important for weather systems that propagate in the Euro‐Atlantic sector. Here, an index that measures how much the SSTs change with distance from month‐to‐month across the GS once it separates past Cape Hatteras is developed for the first time. It is found that variability in the index primarily results from SST variations to the north of the separated GS, which themselves are influenced by the atmosphere. There is evidence however that the SST variability represented by the index can also exert an influence on the atmosphere in wintertime. Additionally, the value of the index at any given time seemingly provides some information about the state of the index several years into the future. Key Points: A monthly index for the large‐scale sea‐surface temperature gradient of the separated Gulf Stream is presentedVariations in the index throughout the year are related to atmospheric forcingEvidence of ocean‐atmosphere feedback in the index is only apparent in wintertime [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temperature of the subsurface water entrained into the surface mixed layer plays a key role in controlling the sea surface temperature (SST) and its interannual variability in the equatorial Pacific. In this paper, we combine a hyperbolic tangent function bounded by the warm pool SST and centered at the thermocline depth with a variable sharpness parameter to describe the time‐space evolutions of the subsurface temperature. Under simple approximations of the sharpness parameter, this concise expression becomes remarkably efficient in capturing the observed and climate‐model simulated subsurface temperature variability in terms of anomalies of the thermocline depth and SST of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The formulations for the subsurface temperature and thermocline sharpness developed in this work should be useful tools for evaluating and understanding the role of the thermocline feedback in ENSO behaviors in both theoretical and comprehensive climate models. Plain Language Summary: While significant advances have been made in our ability to understand, simulate, and predict the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), its remarkable complexity is still not well understood. The subsurface ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific is known to play a key role in controlling sea surface temperature and its interannual variations. An accurate description of its relationship with thermocline depth variability is of essential importance to understanding ENSO's complex dynamics in mechanistic studies. In this paper, we develop a concise expression which captures the observed relationship between anomalies of the subsurface temperature and thermocline depth remarkably well. This expression should be useful for ENSO mechanistic model studies and diagnostic investigations into climate models' performances in their ENSO simulations. Key Points: The equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature is expressed as a hyperbolic tangent function of thermocline depth and sharpnessEffective parameterizations for the subsurface temperature are derived by simple approximations of the thermocline sharpnessThese parameterizations can be useful tools for evaluating the impacts of thermocline feedback on ENSO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present preliminary results from the field program Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC), with measurements during August and September of 2019 using the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V over the tropical East Pacific and Southwest Caribbean. We found that active convection in this region has predominantly bottom‐heavy vertical mass fluxes, while decaying systems exhibit top‐heavy fluxes characteristic of stratiform rain regions. As in other regions that have been studied, a strong anti‐correlation exists between the low to mid‐level moist convective instability and the column relative humidity or saturation fraction. Finally, the characteristics of convection as a function of latitude differ greatly between the Southwest Caribbean and Colombian Pacific coast on one hand, and the intertropical convergence zone to the west. In particular, the strongest convection in the former is to the south, while it is to the north in the latter, in spite of similar latitudinal sea surface temperature distributions. Plain Language Summary: Understanding and modeling the physics of tropical atmospheric convection still poses a big challenge. Things are complicated over the tropical oceans because there is no easy way to gather data. Field projects such as the one presented in this paper, Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC2019) are of great importance to our scientific community for this reason. During OTREC, 22 research flights were performed over East Pacific and Southwest Caribbean gathering data from 13 km to surface. This paper presents early results that will help us understand the physics of convection and improve our weather and climate models. Key Points: Thermodynamic parameters instability index and saturation fraction show anti‐correlation, as explained by moisture quasi‐equilibrium theoryVertical mass flux profiles are generally bottom heavy for developing convection and top heavy for decaying convectionStrong differences exist between convection in the East Pacific ITCZ and in the Caribbean and Pacific coast of Colombia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate in this paper that conventional time‐averaged decadal hindcast skill estimates can overestimate or underestimate the credibility of an individual decadal climate forecast. We show that hindcast skill in a long period can be higher or lower than skill in its subperiods. Instead of using time‐averaged hindcast skill measures, we propose to use the physical state of the climate system at the beginning of the forecast to judge its credibility. We analyze hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in an initialized prediction system based on the MPI‐ESM‐LR for the period 1901–2010. Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat transport (OHT) strength at hindcast initialization largely determines the skill of these hindcasts: We find high skill after anomalously strong or weak OHT, but low skill after average OHT. This knowledge can be used to constrain conventional hindcast skill estimates to improve the assessment of credibility for a decadal forecast. Plain Language Summary: Credible predictions of climate up to 10 years into the future, so‐called decadal climate predictions, can be a potent tool for decision makers. However, previous work indicated that such predictions are sometimes credible and sometimes not. This study illustrates that knowing the physical state of the climate system at the start of a decadal climate prediction helps assessing the credibility of that prediction. Analyzing sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic as a case study, we show that northward heat transport in the ocean provides a good indicator of the credibility of decadal predictions in the North Atlantic. Unlike previous studies, we do not only analyze time‐averaged prediction credibility, but look at individual predictions in the past. This makes our findings particularly relevant for individual forecasts and decision makers. Key Points: Decadal hindcast skill estimates can misrepresent forecast skill as skill depends on the length of the time window used for calculationNorth Atlantic SST hindcast skill is high when subpolar ocean heat transport is strong or weak at initialization and low after average OHTAnalyzing individual hindcasts shows that accounting for ocean heat transport helps to better constrain credibility of individual forecasts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, global oceanic dissolved oxygen (DO) has been decreasing, and oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) have been expanding. Here, we estimate the annual global and regional OMZ areas using geostatistical regression combined with Monte Carlo. From 1960 to 2019, annual global OMZ20 (DO < 20 μmol/kg) and OMZ60 (DO < 60 μmol/kg) areas cover 5%–14% and 15%–32% of the global ocean, respectively. The global and most regional OMZ areas after the late 2000s were all significantly larger than those in previous years. Most oceanic regions likely experienced significant expansions in OMZ areas, especially the North Pacific. However, the equatorial Pacific with the largest OMZ area showed insignificant horizontal expansion. The expanding OMZ areas of most oceans responded more quickly and effectively to the surrounding sea temperatures than to the sea surface temperatures. Our research highlights the need for marine resource management to account for the challenges from OMZs. Plain Language Summary: Expanding oxygen minimum zones (OMZs, low dissolved oxygen [DO] zones) in the open ocean have been the topic of intense interest. However, annual OMZ areas, trends in OMZ areas, and causes of OMZ expansions remain unclear. Our paper explores the locations and annual areas of global and regional OMZ areas based on observations from 1960 to 2019. Over the last six decades, annual global OMZ20 (DO < 20 μmol/kg) and OMZ60 (DO < 60 μmol/kg) areas cover 5%–14% and 15%–32% of the global ocean, respectively. The global OMZ areas show great interannual variability but remain stably large after the late 2000s. Most oceanic regions have experienced significant OMZ expansion, especially the North Pacific. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has the largest OMZ area, but shows insignificant expansion. Subsurface sea temperatures are more associated with the expanding OMZ areas than sea surface temperatures. Increasing sea temperature would substantially increase OMZ areas by the end of the century for the future societal development pathway (SSP585) scenario. Understanding how OMZs will change over the long‐term due to climate change is beneficial for the protection of marine resources. Key Points: From 1960 to 2019, most oceanic regions experienced significant horizontal expansions in oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) areas, especially the North PacificThe equatorial Pacific has the largest OMZ area but shows an insignificant increasing trendThe OMZ areas of most oceans respond more quickly and effectively to surrounding sea temperatures than to sea surface temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 25 years of ERA5 reanalysis data, this study shows that wind divergence is partially driven by small‐scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns via their effect on the boundary layer stability. Moreover, strong warm‐to‐cold fronts (the upper quartile) are associated with a mean increase of cloud cover of 10% ± 5% and a mean increase in the probability of a rain event of 15% ± 6%, with respect to the average values. The cloud and rainfall dependence on SST fronts is more pronounced in Fall, probably due to the stronger SST gradients present at the end of the summer season. Plain Language Summary: Oceanic thermal structures impact surface winds, low‐level clouds, and rainfall. Using reanalysis data over the Mediterranean Sea, this paper shows that the reduced stability over warm patches increases the coupling of surface winds with winds aloft. This process affects the entire marine atmospheric boundary layer. This results in a cloud cover and rainfall response: when the wind blows from warm to cold (from cold to warm) water, a converging (diverging) cell is enhanced, increasing (decreasing) low‐cloud cover and favoring by about 15% a rain event. Key Points: Oceanic thermal feedback acts on the marine atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at daily time‐scaleThe downward momentum mixing mechanism imprints cloud cover and rainSST gradients partially drive cloud structures and rainfall over the Mediterranean Sea [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early August 2018, a record‐setting marine heatwave (MHW) occurred along the coast of Southern and Baja California. Water temperature at Scripps Pier rose to 26.4°C, the highest in 102 years of measurements. This paper investigates the large‐scale ocean‐atmospheric conditions for this Southern California MHW event. This intense and sustained event is the result of the superposition of "weather" timescale warming by a coastal wind relaxation and intraseasonal warming by coastally trapped waves. For weather‐scale warming, climatological upwelling was weakened by a wind relaxation, due to anomalous offshore low pressure associated with passing tropical cyclones John and Kristy. For intraseasonal warming, the upwelling was inhibited and the thermocline was deepened by poleward‐propagating coastally trapped waves, which provided a slow warming background. The mixed layer heat budget analysis indicates that the reduced upwelling and deepened thermocline are the major cause of the MHW. Plain Language Summary: The Southern California marine heatwave in August 2018, which set a record for warmest sea surface temperature ever recorded at San Diego, encompasses two timescales. "Slow" warming began due to an earlier coastal wind relaxation, which reduced the upwelling of cool water; and the propagation of coastally trapped waves. "Fast" warming occurred in August due to a wind relaxation associated with an offshore tropical cyclone. Key Points: A record‐setting marine heatwave (MHW) occurred along the coast of Southern and Baja California in early August 2018This MHW is the result of a coastal wind relaxation on the weather timescale and intraseasonal coastally trapped wavesThe ocean upwelling and vertical mixing are the primary cause of the MHW event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic since 1870 reveal a region of enhanced warming off the northeastern coast of North America, and a region of cooling to the south of Greenland. It has been hypothesized that these adjacent SST trends are a result of long‐term changes in the buoyancy‐driven ocean circulation—a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The impacts of these historical SST trends on the atmosphere are estimated using idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the global atmosphere is exposed to modern climatological forcing minus the aforementioned regional SST trends. The local response includes a negative North Atlantic Oscillation tendency and southward shift of the wind forcing for the subtropical gyre. Due to planetary wave propagation, the regional SST trends also induce a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over the Indian Ocean. Implications for climate feedbacks and projections are discussed. Plain Language Summary: The ocean surface is warming over most of the planet, with a couple of notable exceptions. One is over the North Atlantic Ocean, just south of Greenland, where the temperature of the ocean surface has actually been cooling by about 1°C since 1870. Nearby, extending off the northeastern coastline of North America is a region where the ocean surface has been warming much faster than the global ocean on average—by about 1.5°C since 1870. This side‐by‐side pair of accelerated warming and cooling trends is likely due to a slowdown of the ocean's overturning circulation, which carries large amounts of heat energy from the tropics toward the poles. This paper reveals the effects of those unusual ocean temperature trends in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric circulation using a computer model of the global atmosphere. The model simulations indicate that these ocean temperature trends are causing shifts in the jet stream, changing the way the winds propel the upper ocean currents, and even have impacts quite far away by moving the tropical rain belt northward in the Indian Ocean. Key Points: The impact of historical sea surface temperature trends in the North Atlantic since 1870 is simulated with a global atmospheric modelAdjacent warming and cooling trends in the North Atlantic Ocean induce a negative NAO‐like response and southward‐shifted gyre forcingPropagation of planetary waves away from the North Atlantic induces a northward‐shifted intertropical convergence zone in the Indian Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐term droughts, closely linked to oceanic climate variability, are a great threat to the global economy, as well as food and water security. Skillful predictions will provide enormous benefit to the human societies. By taking advantages of the newly available decadal hindcasts and target experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), this paper evaluates potential predictability and decadal prediction skill of droughts over major river basins across the globe. The results show that the CMIP6 drought prediction is skillful within 3–6 years, and the skill score is 11% higher than CMIP5 over 47% river basins. Prediction skill is enhanced by 15% (16%) over 47% (49%) basins, forced by the actual sea surface temperature over tropical eastern Pacific (North Atlantic). Our findings imply the possibility of drought adaptation based on skillful decadal prediction with sufficient lead time. Plain Language Summary: A reliable drought prediction is helpful to reduce adverse impact and economic loss by increasing the preparedness. Although operational seasonal drought prediction has been applied over the world, decadal prediction is still a grand challenge due to limited knowledge about the predictability and mechanism of long‐term drought. Here we apply the decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 to evaluate the probabilistic decadal prediction skill of drought and analyze the impacts of sea surface temperature on the prediction through CMIP6 pacemaker experiments. Our results show the skillful prediction can be found over half of the major river basins at 1–4 years lead. In addition, incorporating the actual sea surface temperature in tropical eastern Pacific or North Atlantic can efficiently enhance the drought prediction skill over 48% basins as well. This study suggests that it is possible to provide useful long‐term drought information for water and agricultural management through using coupled models, but the skill can be improved further by optimization of initialization and ensemble methods. Key Points: Probabilistic predictions of basin‐scale droughts by dynamical models are skillful within 3–6 years across the globeThere is an 11% improvement from CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 over 47% of the largest 177 global river basinsSSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic have critical importance for the success over about 48% basins [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire activity in Equatorial Asia shows large interannual variability. Teleconnections by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole are linked to drought and fire events; however, we found here that significant role of local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Banda Sea in interannual variability of Equatorial Asian burned area in October even after removing the linear effects of teleconnections. October is the transient period from dry to wet season and strengthened seasonal circulation in October leads to a negative SST anomaly through Wind‐Evaporation‐SST mechanism. This anomalous local air‐sea interaction sustains the dry season into October and stronger fire activity. Moreover, we found that the sensitivity of precipitation to SST is higher in October than in other months, hence fires in Equatorial Asia can be sensitively driven by local SST changes. Identification of this sensitivity will underpin better predictions of fire activity and air quality in Equatorial Asia. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies have emphasized that the remote forcing associated with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole are the most important climate factors in controlling fire activity in Equatorial Asia. However, we found here that there is a huge diversity of fire activity among El Niño events. In this paper, we newly found that the local air‐sea interaction significantly influences on fire activity in Equatorial Asia. When the seasonal wind gets stronger, the Banda Sea, local sea located between Kalimantan and New Guinea, is cooler and it leads to the drought and strong fire activity. We also found that the role of local air‐sea interaction strongly depends on the seasonality, which is related to seasonal variation of sea surface temperature climatology. Our findings will be utilized for better predictions of fire activity and air quality in Equatorial Asia. Key Points: Strong diversity of fire activity in Equatorial Asia among El Niño eventsImportance of local air‐sea interaction on fire activity; cooler Banda Sea leads drought and stronger fire activityFire activity is sensitively driven by local SST changes due to strong local air‐sea interaction in October [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models often parameterize isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies using a diffusion operator that acts in the isopycnal direction, multiplied by an isopycnal‐mixing coefficient. The magnitude of this coefficient is uncertain, with observational estimates ranging from 10 to 10,000 m2/s. In an idealized‐geometry ocean model, the isopycnal‐mixing coefficient is varied across a similar range without allowing the circulation to change: This leads to large changes in the ventilation of the deep ocean. Passive tracers are used to assess the impact of varying the isopycnal‐mixing coefficient on water mass distributions. Increasing the isopycnal‐mixing coefficient from 50 to 5,000 m2/s leads to a 63% reduction in the amount of North Atlantic Deep Water and a doubling in the amount of Antarctic Bottom Water in the deep Pacific ocean. This change is associated with a 700‐yr reduction in the ideal age of water in the deep Pacific ocean. Plain Language Summary: The ocean is full of eddies at the 100‐km scale that stir tracers along surfaces of constant density. Climate models generally have coarse grids that are not able to resolve these ocean eddies. Instead, climate models represent this stirring using a diffusion operator along surfaces of constant density: This diffusion operator smooths out gradients in ocean tracers like temperature, salinity, oxygen, and nutrients. Based on currently available observations, it is unclear how large this diffusion operator should be in climate models. The results shown in this paper suggest that the amount of diffusion along surfaces of constant density influences the pathway along which water reaches the deep Pacific. Improving estimates of the size of this diffusion operator would probably increase the accuracy of climate models. Key Points: Passive tracers are used to quantify the amount of deep water that originated in each region of the surface oceanIncreasing the isopycnal‐mixing coefficient reduces the fraction of NADW in the deep PacificIncreasing the isopycnal‐mixing coefficient reduces the ideal age of water in the deep Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean heat transport through the Barents Sea Opening (BSO) has strong impacts on the Barents Sea ice extent and the climate. In this paper we quantified the contributions from different atmospheric forcing components to the trend and interannual variability of the BSO heat transport. Ocean‐ice model simulations were conducted in which the interannual variation of atmospheric forcing was maintained only in or outside the Arctic in two different simulations. The sum of their BSO heat transport anomalies reasonably replicated the trend and variability from a hindcast simulation. The upward trend of the BSO heat transport mainly stems from the increasing ocean temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic. For the interannual variability, the local wind and upstream forcing are similarly important. The location of the Atlantic Water boundary current in the Nordic Seas, influenced by the cyclonic atmospheric circulation, is crucial in determining part of the BSO inflow variability. Key Points: Forcing responsible for the trend and interannual variability of ocean heat transported into the Barents Sea is disentangledThe upward trend of the heat inflow stems from warming in the subpolar North Atlantic, while local wind accounts for half of its varianceThe location of the Atlantic Water boundary current relative to the Barents Sea entrance is crucial in determining the heat inflow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The asymmetry of mixed layer salinity (MLS) anomalies in response to El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific is examined for the first time based on Argo observations and Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean simulation. The difference of MLS anomalies between El Niño and La Niña shows a dipole structure, with El Niño featuring strong negative salinity anomalies east of 160°E while La Niña shows remarkable positive salinity anomalies west of 160°E. A salinity budget analysis suggests that nonlinear zonal advection plays a dominant role in generating the asymmetric MLS structure. This dipole MLS structure acts to generate a dipole structure of barrier layer thickness and thus likely plays an important role in the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation asymmetries in sea surface temperature. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well known for its great impacts on global climate. Previous studies on the differences between El Niño and La Niña, defined as ENSO asymmetry, focused primarily on temperature, but the differences in salinity between the two ENSO phases and their potential effects on the ENSO asymmetry are relatively unexplored. In this paper, we have for the first time documented salinity differences associated with El Niño‐La Niña asymmetry and diagnosed the air‐sea processes in controlling these differences based on observations and model simulations. We find a dipole structure exists in mixed layer salinity (MLS) variations between El Niño and La Niña in the western‐central equatorial Pacific, with stronger negative MLS anomalies to the east of 160°E during El Niño and stronger positive MLS anomalies to the west of 160°E during La Niña. Based on a salinity budget analysis, the MLS dipole is mostly attributed to the nonlinear zonal advection. This dipole MLS structure in relation to a dipole structure in barrier layer thickness, and their potential to feedback on El Niño and La Niña sea surface temperature asymmetry, is also discussed. Key Points: A dipole structure of mixed layer salinity in the western‐central equatorial Pacific is a characteristic of El Niño‐La Niña asymmetryNonlinear zonal advection plays a dominant role in generating the dipole salinity structureThe dipole salinity structure has potential effects on the asymmetry of ENSO SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A machine learning method is used to identify sources of long‐term ENSO predictability in the ocean (sea surface temperature (SST) and heat content) and the atmosphere (near‐surface zonal wind (U10)). Tropical SST represents the primary source of predictability skill. While U10 does not increase the skill when associated with SST, our analysis suggests U10 alone has apredictive skill comparable to that of SST between 11 and 21 months in advance, from late fall up to late spring. The long‐lead signal originates from coupled wind‐SST interactions across the Indian Ocean (IO) and propagates across the Pacific via an atmospheric bridge mechanism. A linear correlation analysis supports this mechanism, suggesting a precursor link between anomalies in SST in the western and wind in the eastern IO. Our results have important implications for ENSO predictions beyond 1 year ahead and identify the key role of U10 over the IO. Plain Language Summary: Many extreme events, such as floods or droughts, can be attributed to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a mode of large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere coupled variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean occurring with a period of approximately 4 years. In this analysis, we use a machine learning methodology to disentangle the key atmospheric and oceanic ENSO components' relative contribution to its predictability, particularly the role of near‐surface 10‐m zonal wind. We quantify the potential for improved ENSO predictions for up to 2 years in advance and present a mechanistic understanding of the location of the sources of predictability. While equatorial sea surface temperature represents the primary source of ENSO predictability, the equatorial U10 plays a vital role from late spring to fall, from 1 to 2 years in advance. The enhanced predictability skill is shown to be linked to an SST anomaly originating in the Indian Ocean. The ML model used provides a new way to get new insights into the sources of predictability for ENSO and can be used as a simple but powerful tool to improve the underlying mechanistic understanding. Key Points: A deep learning‐based approach suggests near‐surface 10 m wind to play a significant role in providing skills for long‐term ENSO predictabilityThe skill of the 10‐m zonal wind is large from 12 months up to 23 months in advance (depending on the season)The signal is generated by coupled wind‐SST interactions in the Indian Ocean and later propagates across the Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain. The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought conditions since the 2000s have been linked to a cooling sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the Equatorial Pacific. Notably, climate models fail to reproduce these observed SST trends, and they may continue doing so in the future. Here, we assess the sensitivity of SWUS precipitation projections to future SST trends using a Green's function approach. Our findings reveal that a slight redistribution of SST leads to a wetting or drying of the SWUS. A reversal of the observed cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific over the next few decades would lead to a period of wetting in the SWUS. It is critical to consider the impact of possible SST pattern trends on SWUS precipitation trends until we fully trust SST evolution in climate models. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation trends in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are sensitive to the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the Tropical Pacific. Since the turn of the century, a decrease in SWUS precipitation has been linked to a cooling of the Central and Eastern Pacific (1990–2020). Notably, climate models are unable to simulate this observed cooling SST trend. In this study, we answer how SWUS precipitation projections may be impacted by potential error in the simulation of future SST trends by climate models. We first demonstrate that slight changes in the pattern of SST trends leads to either a wetting or drying of the SWUS. Second, if the current 30‐year cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific switches to a warming trend, the SWUS could experience a near‐term increase in precipitation. While climate models are the main tool to predict the global response to anthropogenic climate change, we must consider and account for their error in projections of global warming. Key Points: The observed Equatorial Pacific cooling trend, unpredicted by climate models, may have led to decreased precipitation in the southwestern USWith a sea surface temperature‐precipitation Green's function, we find that small changes in sea surface temperature can either wet or dry the southwestern USA reversal of the cooling trend in the Equatorial Pacific could lead to a wetting trend in the southwestern US [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We utilize ocean 10‐m wind speed (U10m) from the microwave Multi‐sensor Advanced Climatology data set to examine the coupling between convective cloud and precipitation processes, synoptic state, and U10m and to evaluate the representation of U10m in global climate models (GCMs). We find that midlatitude U10m is underestimated by GCMs relative to observations. We examine two potential mechanisms to explain this model behavior: cold pool formation in cold air outbreaks (CAOs) associated with downdrafts that enhance U10m and sea surface temperature (SST) gradients affecting U10m through thermally forced surface winds at regional scales. When the effects of the CAO index (M) and SST gradients on U10m are accounted for, a relationship between GCM horizontal resolution and U10m appears. The strongest correlation between resolution and U10m is over the western boundary currents characterized by frequent CAOs atop strong SST gradients which drives the strongest surface fluxes on Earth. Plain Language Summary: Surface wind drives the exchange of momentum and energy between the atmosphere and ocean, forcing movement of ocean surface water that impacts the circulation responsible for transporting heat and carbon. It is thus important to study how well global climate models (GCMs) simulate near surface winds. Here, we show an underestimation of ocean surface wind in the latest‐generation of GCMs and examine how an underestimation of ocean surface winds covaries with biases in surface temperature and fine‐scale precipitation‐driven circulations. We show the effect of model horizontal grid resolution on the wind speed bias and analyze surface wind speed bias occurrence in western boundary currents. Key Points: Coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) models underestimate midlatitude ocean surface wind speed compared to spaceborne microwave radiometersSimulated ocean surface wind speed bias scales with model resolution at a magnitude strongly influenced by meteorologyOcean surface wind speed bias is most correlated with resolution in western boundary currents [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the expected synoptic states, it lacks details of anticipated sub‐seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores the influence of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, focusing on GBR impacts. We find that during El Niño periods, including the summer of 2009/10, faster propagating MJO patterns can disrupt background warm, dry conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud cover and stronger winds. In La Niña periods, such as the summer of 2021/22, the MJO tends to be prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to decreased cloud cover and weaker winds over the GBR, generating warm ocean anomalies. Plain Language Summary: Bleaching is likely when tropical corals are exposed to ocean temperatures above a threshold for a prolonged period. In austral summer, tropical weather over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can vary from hot and sunny to stormy with rain and strong winds. During El Niño, summer weather over the GBR is typically warm, still, and dry, increasing the likelihood of coral bleaching due to increased exposure to solar radiation and decreased mixing. During La Niña, tropical storms, with cooling effects through increased rainfall and cloud cover, are more typical. The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is an eastward moving storm pattern near the equator that can also influence the background climate over the GBR. We find that the MJO can significantly influence the weather variability over the GBR, altering the expected states of El Niño and La Niña periods. Key Points: Composite maps show how the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) can change meteorological patterns on the Great Barrier ReefCluster analysis is used to show the types of MJO propagation patterns likely to occur during El Niño and La Niña periodsOcean temperature variability is discussed with El Niño/La Niña phases as the background states and the MJO as a sub‐seasonal modulator [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The behavior of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has undergone significant changes since the year 2000. Meanwhile, a notable westward shift and strengthening in the atmosphere‐to‐ocean Bjerknes feedback were observed. We find that this shift can be primarily attributed to a weakened relationship between the zonal gradient of precipitation anomaly and that of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly since 2000.This weakened relationship is a comprehensive manifestation of reduced El Niño‐related precipitation anomalies in the central‐eastern tropical Pacific and increased anomalies in the western tropical Pacific. These changes are connected to the mean state change in the tropical Pacific after 2000, where the cooler background SSTs in the central‐eastern tropical Pacific suppress upward motion, and the warmer background SSTs in the western tropical Pacific promote upward motion in the overlying atmosphere. Our findings offer a potential explanation for the westward shift and strengthening in the atmosphere‐to‐ocean Bjerknes feedback since 2000. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon that plays a major role in global weather and climate systems. The development of ENSO is mainly attributed to a positive feedback known as the Bjerknes feedback, which represents the atmospheric response to the oceanic forcing and vice versa. It is noted that ENSO has behaved differently since the year 2000. Concurrently, a pronounced westward movement and strengthening in the atmosphere‐to‐ocean Bjerknes feedback have also been observed. Analyses show that changes in the Bjerknes positive feedback are largely due to a weakened relationship between anomalous rainfall patterns and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This implies that during El Niño events, there is less rainfall in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific, and more rainfall in the western tropical Pacific. These changes are linked to a cooling of background SSTs in the central‐eastern tropical Pacific, which reduces the upward air movement and rainfall in that region, and a warming of background SSTs in the western Pacific, which promotes the upward air movement and rainfall. Key Points: Westward shift and strengthening of the atmosphere‐to‐ocean Bjerknes feedback in the tropical Pacific have been observed since 2000A weakened precipitation‐to‐sea surface temperature (SST) response drives the changes in the atmosphere‐to‐ocean Bjerknes feedbackChanges in precipitation‐to‐SST response are linked to the interdecadal shift in the tropical Pacific background state [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long‐term memory of the ocean makes sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) become a significant predictor for the subsequent atmosphere, and the tropical ocean is primarily regarded as a major source of atmospheric anomalies. While in North Pacific, the local midlatitude SSTAs also have large contributions but have not been adequately considered yet. We discover a strong connection between the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) SSTAs in spring and the local atmospheric circulation anomalies in following summer at interannual timescale, wherein, the spring KOE SSTAs are generally independent of tropical ocean, and they are primarily induced by the concurrent atmospheric anomalies via surface heat flux and ocean dynamic processes. The spring KOE SSTAs can persist to summer, and then generate nearly reversed whole‐layer atmospheric circulation anomalies in their north side through both diabatic heating and atmospheric transient eddy forcing. Consequently, precipitation anomalies in Pan‐Pacific regions are distinctly modulated from spring to summer. Plain Language Summary: Because of the vast heat‐holding capacity and the long‐term memory of ocean, sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are usually taken as the significant factors to understand and predict climate anomalies. On interannual timescale, attentions have primarily centered on the tropical SSTAs, but recent studies indicated that the SSTAs in mid‐to‐high latitudes, especially in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) could have important feedbacks on the atmosphere. In this study, the KOE SSTAs in spring are discovered to have large interannual variability, and they are independent of the tropical SSTAs but closely linked to the subsequent summer atmospheric anomalies. It is found that the spring KOE SSTAs are mainly forced by the atmosphere via the surface heat flux and the ocean dynamic processes. In turn, they can persist to summer, and then play a dominant role in the air‐sea interaction in North Pacific, inducing remarkable geopotential height anomalies in north side. Consequently, in terms of the KOE SSTAs evolving from spring to summer, the Pan‐Pacific precipitation anomalies are distinctly modulated due to the opposite air‐sea interaction processes in the two seasons. These findings advocate for the use of springtime KOE SSTAs as a predictive indicator for following summer atmospheric and precipitation conditions. Key Points: The spring Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are independent of tropical ocean and primarily forced by the concurrent local atmosphere at interannual timescaleThe spring KOE SSTAs can persist to summer and exert a delayed cross‐season impact on the subsequent summer atmosphereAssociated with the spring KOE SSTAs, precipitation anomalies in Pan‐Pacific regions are distinctly modulated from spring to summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in driving the decadal variability of the Arctic climate by analyzing the pre‐industrial control simulation of a high‐resolution climate model. While the OHT variability at 65°N is greater in the Atlantic, we find that the decadal variability of Arctic‐wide surface temperature and sea ice area is much better correlated with Bering Strait OHT than Atlantic OHT. In particular, decadal Bering Strait OHT variability causes significant changes in local sea ice cover and air‐sea heat fluxes, which are amplified by shortwave feedbacks. These heat flux anomalies are regionally balanced by longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, without compensation by atmospheric heat transport (Bjerknes compensation). The sensitivity of the Arctic to changes in OHT may thus rely on an accurate representation of the heat transport through the Bering Strait, which is difficult to resolve in coarse‐resolution ocean models. Plain Language Summary: We studied how ocean heat transport (OHT) affects decade‐timescale variability in the Arctic climate using a high‐resolution climate model. Specifically, we compared the impacts of heat entering the Arctic Ocean through the Nordic Seas from the Atlantic and through the Bering Strait from the Pacific. Though more heat is transported from the Atlantic, Arctic surface temperature and sea ice respond more strongly to changes in OHT through the Bering Strait. Unlike Atlantic OHT, changes in Bering Strait OHT impact local air temperatures directly, without compensating changes in atmospheric heat transport. Proper representation of the Arctic's sensitivity to future increased OHT may thus rely on correctly representing OHT through Bering Strait, which is challenging in coarse‐resolution ocean models. Key Points: Ocean heat transport variability through the Bering Strait has an outsized effect on Arctic sea ice cover and surface temperatureAtlantic ocean heat transport anomalies into the Arctic are compensated by atmospheric heat transport anomalies on decadal timescales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use neural networks and large climate model ensembles to explore predictability of internal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual (1–3 years) and decadal (1–5 and 3–7 years) timescales. We find that neural networks can skillfully predict SST anomalies at these lead times, especially in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, Tropical Pacific, Tropical Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The spatial patterns of SST predictability vary across the nine climate models studied. The neural networks identify "windows of opportunity" where future SST anomalies can be predicted with more certainty. Neural networks trained on climate models also make skillful SST predictions in reconstructed observations, although the skill varies depending on which climate model the network was trained. Our results highlight that neural networks can identify predictable internal variability within existing climate data sets and show important differences in how well patterns of SST predictability in climate models translate to the real world. Plain Language Summary: We train neural networks (a machine learning model) to predict sea surface temperature (SST) between 3 and 7 years in the future. The neural networks are trained using data from existing climate model simulations. The regions where neural networks make the most accurate predictions depend on which climate model is used for training. The neural networks also make accurate predictions when given a data set of reconstructed SST observations, which means some of the patterns learned from the climate models also apply to the real climate system. However, there are unique differences between prediction accuracy in climate models and the reconstructed observations, which suggests directions for future research. Key Points: Neural networks can learn predictable signals of internal sea surface temperature (SST) variability at 1–3, 1–5, and 3–7 years lead timesNeural networks trained on climate model output can skillfully predict SST variability in reconstructed observationsNeural network skill in predicting observed SST variability depends on the climate model used for training [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic sea ice cover has decreased rapidly over the last few decades both in extent and thickness. Here we present multi‐year (2013–2022) observations of sea ice thickness in the northwestern Barents Sea based on Upward Looking Sonar measurements and show that the winter sea ice has become thicker over the last decade. Sea ice thickness from the Pan‐Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reproduces both the observed variability and recent 10‐year trend and shows that this thickening (0.24 m decade−1) has not been seen since the 1990s. Using PIOMAS we find that the recent increase in sea ice thickness can be explained by increased sea ice freezing as a result of lower temperatures in the ocean and in the atmosphere. The recent thickening is set in the context of a long‐term thinning trend, with PIOMAS showing much thinner ice now than in the 1980s. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic sea ice cover is becoming smaller and thinner due to global warming. We have measured sea ice thickness in the Barents Sea since 2013, and find that the ice thickness has increased since the measurements were initiated, contrary to what we would expect in a warming world. The Arctic sea ice cover can, however, increase for periods typically up to a decade due to natural climate variability. We find that increased sea ice formation due to lower ocean and air temperatures has caused the recent thickening of the ice cover. We also find that the Barents Sea ice thickness has decreased since the 1980s, and despite the recent thickening, the ice cover is much thinner now than it used to be. Key Points: Upward Looking Sonar measurements in the Barents Sea show increased sea ice thickness during the last decadeIn an ice‐ocean reanalysis (PIOMAS) the recent thickening is due to increased ice freezing, associated with lower ocean and air temperaturesThe long‐term thickness trend is negative, meaning that despite recent thickening, ice is now much thinner than in the 1980s [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous modeling studies indicate that even though marine cloud brightening under a susceptibility‐based strategy is effective in reducing the global average surface temperature, it triggers a La Niña‐like sea‐surface temperature response with cooling mostly confined within lower latitudes. Here we explore a different cloud seeding strategy involving seeding of regions with low susceptibility, primarily over the ocean in midlatitudes during the winter. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 reveal that because the regional forcing is weaker and more widespread, cooling is more evenly distributed over the globe. This new strategy also does not result in the La Niña‐like state seen in the other strategies. Plain Language Summary: Most previous marine cloud brightening (MCB) simulations have focused on the regions more likely to induce strong cooling. A common response in these simulations across different climate models is a La Niña‐like sea surface temperature pattern which could disrupt the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We explored simulations in which MCB is deployed over the least susceptible regions rather than the most susceptible. This new seeding strategy cools the globe more evenly and no longer triggers a La Niña‐like response. Key Points: We explore the idea of deploying marine cloud brightening (MCB) over broader regions with low susceptibility to cloud seedingThis approach induces fairly uniform cooling over the globe unlike MCB that targets the most susceptible regionsThis new seeding strategy has fewer climatic side effects and does not trigger a La Niña‐like response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to Europe is projected to strengthen under global warming in most climate model simulations. However, given the current difference between recent observations and historical model simulations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends, with models simulating an El Niño‐like warming in recent decades which is in disagreement with observations, it is important to understand the relative contributions of changes to the teleconnection forcing and background state to the overall teleconnection change. Using idealized climate model experiments, we show that both the eastward shift of El Niño precipitation and background state changes make contributions to the overall teleconnection change. These results suggest that the ENSO–Europe teleconnection can be expected to strengthen under global warming, even if ENSO precipitation anomalies do not shift eastwards as currently projected. However, the magnitude of the strengthening may depend on how much of an eastward shift does occur. Plain Language Summary: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the weather and climate in Europe, and this connection is expected to become stronger under global warming according to most climate models. However, there is a difference between recent observations of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and what climate models simulate. These differences could have important implications for future projections of ENSO's impact on Europe. To understand how likely the projected future strengthening of this link is, we looked at how two factors contribute to this connection change: (a) changes in rainfall associated with El Niño in the tropical Pacific and (b) overall changes in global climate elsewhere. Using a simplified climate model, we found that both these factors play a role in making the connection between El Niño and Europe stronger. This suggests that even if the specific patterns of El Niño rainfall don't change as projected, the link between El Niño and Europe will still get stronger due to global warming. However, how much stronger it gets might depend on the actual changes in El Niño rainfall, so it's important to figure out why there's a difference between observations and the model projections of Pacific Ocean temperature trends. Key Points: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnection to Europe is projected to strengthen under global warmingThis change is driven by an eastward shift of El Niño precipitation anomalies in the tropical Pacific and background state changes globallyBackground state changes have a greater impact on European circulation than precipitation changes, particularly over central‐eastern Europe [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative constraints on past mean ocean temperature (MOT) critically inform our historical understanding of Earth's energy balance. A recently developed MOT proxy based on paleoatmospheric Xe, Kr, and N2 ratios in ice core air bubbles is a promising tool rooted in the temperature dependences of gas solubilities. However, these inert gases are systematically undersaturated in the modern ocean interior, and it remains unclear how air‐sea disequilibrium may have changed in the past. Here, we carry out 30 tracer‐enabled model simulations under varying circulation, sea ice cover, and wind stress regimes to evaluate air‐sea disequilibrium in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean. We find that undersaturation of all three gases was likely reduced, primarily due to strengthened high‐latitude winds, biasing reconstructed MOT by −0.38 ± 0.37°C (1σ). Accounting for air‐sea disequilibrium, paleoatmospheric inert gases indicate that LGM MOT was 2.27 ± 0.46°C (1σ) colder than the pre‐industrial era. Plain Language Summary: The ocean plays a central role in Earth's climate system as a major reservoir of heat. Understanding how ocean heat content (OHC) changed in the past is therefore key to unraveling the history of global climate. Xenon, krypton, and nitrogen trapped in ice core air bubbles offer a means of reconstructing past OHC, because changes in global ocean temperature affect the solubilities of these gases in seawater, leading to corresponding changes in their atmospheric abundances. For example, a colder ocean can hold more xenon, meaning less xenon resides in the atmosphere. However, these gases in the ocean today are slightly out of equilibrium with the atmosphere (i.e., they are undersaturated), and it remains unclear to what extent this disequilibrium could have changed in the past. We carried out global atmosphere‐ocean model simulations, finding that undersaturation was likely reduced in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a colder era of global climate ∼20,000 years ago. Our analysis suggests that a small component of the additional xenon in the colder LGM ocean arose from this change in air‐sea disequilibrium. After accounting for this effect, ice core noble gas measurements suggest a slightly warmer LGM ocean than previously thought. Key Points: Global ocean air‐sea gas exchange simulations suggest reduced undersaturation of inert gases in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) oceanReduced LGM undersaturation indicates a small cold bias in mean ocean temperature (MOT) reconstruction from ice core noble gasesA revised estimate of MOT, accounting for air‐sea disequilibrium, is 2.27 ± 0.46°C colder than the pre‐industrial era [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal El Niño is an extreme situation of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with sea surface temperature warming confined in the far‐eastern equatorial Pacific. Some coastal El Niños evolve into a basin scale El Niño, and some don't, implying a diversity in ENSO evolutions after a coastal El Niño event. In this study, the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023 are selected to examine their subsequent evolution. Both coastal El Niños developed after a La Niña, with the former followed by a La Niña and the latter by a basin‐scale El Niño. The cold (warm) subsurface temperatures in 2017 (2023) were key factors leading to the divergent ENSO evolution. Convection over the western tropical Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies across the equatorial Pacific also contributed to the differences. Model predictions suggest that differences in ENSO evolution after a coastal El Niño are associated with differences in ENSO predictability. Plain Language Summary: Compared with the global impact of basin‐scale El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, coastal El Niño impacts are mainly focused along the South American coast. They are less studied, especially, in terms of temporal evolution and longer‐term development. Here, we examine the divergent evolution of ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific after the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023. This subsequent divergent evolution of these events was associated with both preceding subsurface ocean heat content levels, convection over the western tropical Pacific, and concurrent atmospheric circulation. Specifically, preceding subsurface ocean cooling combined with low‐level easterly wind anomalies led to the growth of La Niña after the coastal El Niño in 2017, while strong preceding subsurface ocean warming led to the growth of El Niño after the coastal El Niño in 2023. These differences in the evolution of tropical Pacific Ocean conditions after a coastal El Niño were associated with different levels of ENSO predictability. Key Points: The coastal El Niño in 2017 was followed by a La Niña, while the coastal El Niño in 2023 evolved into a basin‐scale El NiñoSubsurface ocean heat content levels, western Pacific convection, and off‐equatorial circulation differences affect El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolutionDivergent evolution of conditions in the tropical Pacific after a coastal El Niño is associated with differences in ENSO predictability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate over Europe is significantly affected by the state of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, which in turn is influenced by various slowly varying components of the climate system. Linear models are employed to investigate how much of the European winter air temperature variability can directly be predicted from the sea surface temperature. By comparing relations from a statistical model to those from an adjoint to a linearized climate model we evaluate the ability of the lagged maximum covariance analysis to reconstruct the dynamical relation between sea surface temperature (SST) and atmosphere temperature. Applied to specific SST conditions, both approaches allow prediction of a similar and significant fraction of the air temperature variability from SST. For a 1‐month lag, extreme air temperature responses are significant and found to be associated with an omega‐blocking pattern over Scandinavia. Plain Language Summary: A connection between sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation anomalies has been established for decades. Certain SST anomalies force changes in the atmospheric circulation and cause over Europe typical weather patterns (dry and cold or wet and warm) after some lag. A relationship between the SST pattern and the associated response can be derived from numerical models or statistical relations and used for forecasting the atmospheric response to SST anomalies. In this paper, we validate this forecasting method with observational data. Key Points: Linear models show that sea surface temperature anomalies may provide significant skill for predicting northern European air temperaturesStatistical methods can provide sufficiently precise estimates of the lagged relation between sea surface and air temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal climate predictability has received considerable scientific interest in recent years, yet the limits and mechanisms for decadal predictability are currently not well known. It is widely accepted that noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics at the air‐sea interface influences predictability. The purpose of this paper is to use the interactive ensemble (IE) coupling strategy to quantify how internal atmospheric noise at the air‐sea interface impacts decadal predictability. The IE technique can significantly reduce internal atmospheric noise and has proven useful in assessing seasonal‐to‐interannual variability and predictability. Here we focus on decadal timescales and apply the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method to the Community Climate System Model comparing control simulations with IE simulations. This is the first time the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent has been applied to the state‐of‐the‐art coupled models. The global patterns of decadal predictability are discussed from the perspective of internal atmospheric noise and ocean dynamics. Key Points: For the first time, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method has been applied to the state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate modelsDepending on region reducing internal atmospheric noise reduces decadal variability but either increases or decreases decadal predictabilityDecadal‐scale subsurface predictability is examined for the North Atlantic region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic intraseasonal variability (ISV) plays a vital role in the initiation and development of El Niño events. Mooring observations reveal contrasting characteristics of upper‐ocean zonal current ISV during different El Niño events. Compared to the 1997–1998 event, ISV of the 2015–2016 event was significantly weaker (by around 30–50%) over the equatorial Pacific basin, and the variability maximum was shifted to the east (~160°E). These differences can be largely explained by wind forcing features. ISV of surface winds in 2015 is overall weaker than in 1997. Intraseasonal westerly wind bursts in 1997 occurred near the western boundary and originated from the Indian Ocean, whereas in 2015, perturbations were mainly propagated from the northeast Pacific and achieved the peak power at ~160°E of the equator. These changes are likely associated with the decadal warming of the northeast subtropical Pacific and weakening of the Indian Ocean intraseasonal oscillation. Plain Language Summary: Sea surface warmings of strong El Niño events are usually triggered by intraseasonal oscillations prior to the events. Particularly, intraseasonal eastward ocean currents generated by westerly wind bursts carry the warm water of the western Pacific warm pool to the central Pacific and contribute to the surface warming. In this paper, we compare the intraseasonal zonal current variations during two strong El Niño events, namely, the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 events. Although the two El Niño events were of comparable strengths, intraseasonal variations in 1997 were stronger than those in 2015 by 3050%. These differences can be largely explained by the contrasting features of wind forcing. Intraseasonal oscillations were originated from the Indian Ocean in 1997, whereas those in 2015 were mainly from the northeast subtropical Pacific. The varying origin is likely associated with the warming of the northeast subtropical Pacific and weakened Indian Ocean intraseasonal oscillation during recent years. Key Points: Oceanic ISV during the 2015–2016 El Niño was significantly weaker than that in the 1997–1998 eventWeaker ocean current ISV has smaller effect on SST anomalies through advectionDifferences in ocean ISV are induced by contrasting westerly wind events that have different origins during the two events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biweekly sea surface temperature (SST) variability significantly contributes to over 50% of the intraseasonal variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and Atlantic (EEA). Our study investigates this biweekly variability, employing a blend of in–situ and reanalysis data sets. The research identifies biweekly signals in SST, meridional wind, and ocean currents, notably in September–November in EEP and June–August in EEA. Biweekly southerly (northerly) winds drive instantaneous northward (southward) ocean currents in EEP, but with a 1–2‐day phase delay in EEA. Consequently, these currents lead to SST anomalies with a 3–4‐day lag in both EEP and EEA due to the presence of the cold tongue. The study reveals the origin of biweekly wind fluctuations in the western Pacific for EEP and the subpolar Pacific for EEA, connected by atmospheric Rossby waves validated through a linearized non‐divergent barotropic model. This research affirms the influence of subtropical and subpolar atmospheric forcing on equatorial SST. Plain Language Summary: Our research focuses on understanding the regular changes in sea surface temperature (SST) occurring every 2 weeks, which significantly contribute to the seasonal variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and Atlantic (EEA). By analyzing a mix of direct and reconstructed data, we uncover the distinct patterns of these biweekly changes in SST, winds, and ocean currents. Our investigation shows that the movements of the ocean currents are closely linked to the shifts in wind direction, affecting the temperature of the ocean waters. Notably, we observe a delay in the relationship between wind and SST in both EEP and EEA. Through our analysis, we establish that the origins of these biweekly wind patterns can be traced to specific regions in the Pacific. Moreover, we identify the role of atmospheric Rossby waves in connecting these wind patterns to their source regions, which helps us understand how changes in atmospheric conditions in different parts of the ocean can impact the equatorial SST. Key Points: Over 50% of intraseasonal SST variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Atlantic is attributed to biweekly fluctuationsThe atmospheric winds play a crucial role in driving the biweekly SST variabilityBiweekly winds in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Atlantic stem from the subtropical and subpolar regions, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable water isotopes in inland Antarctic ice cores are powerful paleoclimate proxies; however, their relationship with dynamical atmospheric circulations remains controversial. Using a water isotope climate model (MIROC5‐iso), we assessed the influence of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼21,000 years ago) sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice (SIC) on Antarctic precipitation isotopes (δ18Op) through atmospheric circulation. The results revealed that the synoptic circulation mostly maintained southward moisture transport, reaching inland Antarctica. The steepened meridional SST gradient in the mid‐latitudes increased δ18Op in inland Antarctica with the enhanced baroclinic instability and synoptic moisture transport. In contrast, expanded SIC distribution decreased δ18Op over Antarctica by enhanced preferential removal of heavy isotopes during vapor transport due to the increased transport distance and enhanced surface cooling. These findings propose to use Antarctic ice cores to describe the southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation, represented by the westerly jets, during the LGM and other past climates. Plain Language Summary: Stable water isotopes are widely used to reconstruct past variations of Earth's climate, such as the temperature in Antarctica during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ∼21,000 years ago. This is an essential period for the climate community, given the order of magnitude of the temperature change between the LGM and today, which is similar to that of today's warming. However, the relationship between stable water isotopes and temperature is still subject to debate because of the influence of other climatic factors. Using an isotope‐enabled climate model, we found that the isotopic composition of Antarctic precipitation was not simply associated with the high and low average Antarctic temperature, but was substantially influenced by changes in dynamical atmospheric circulation related to sea surface temperature and sea ice expansion. We also suggest that representation of the past atmospheric circulations, such as westerly jets, can be constrained using water isotopic signals in Antarctic ice cores. Key Points: Synoptic circulations sustained the moisture transport toward inland AntarcticaMeridional sea surface temperature gradient enhanced moisture and heavy isotope precipitations on Antarctica, unlike sea ice expansionAntarctic ice core isotopes may refine southern hemisphere atmospheric circulations during the last glacial maximum [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability on decadal timescales has been associated with global and regional climate variability and impacts. The mechanisms that drive decadal SST variability, however, remain highly uncertain. Many previous studies have examined the role of atmospheric variability in driving decadal SST variations. Here we assess the strength of oceanic forcing in driving decadal SST variability in observations and state‐of‐the‐art climate models by analyzing the relationship between surface heat flux and SST. We find a largely similar pattern of decadal oceanic forcing across all ocean basins, characterized by oceanic forcing about twice the strength of the atmospheric forcing in the mid‐ and high latitude regions, but comparable or weaker than the atmospheric forcing in the subtropics. The decadal oceanic forcing is hypothesized to be associated with the wind‐driven oceanic circulation, which is common across all ocean basins. Plain Language Summary: Decadal variabilities in SST create large climate responses, ranging from heat waves to droughts to enhanced hurricanes. However, there has been considerable uncertainty over whether decadal SST variations are driven primarily by atmospheric forcing or ocean forcing related to ocean circulation. Using a newly developed theoretical framework, we provide the first quantitative estimation of decadal oceanic forcing across the global ocean in observations and state‐of‐the‐art climate model. Our estimation shows that decadal ocean forcing is stronger than the atmospheric forcing by about 2–3 times in the mid‐ and high latitude, but comparable or even weaker than atmospheric forcing in the subtropics. Key Points: In the mid‐ and high latitude, decadal oceanic forcing is stronger than atmospheric forcing by about 2–3 times across world ocean basinsIn the subtropics, decadal oceanic forcing is comparable to or even weaker than atmospheric forcingDecadal oceanic forcing is likely contributed predominantly by the wind‐driven oceanic circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet‐bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TWmax). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TWmax and significant regional TWmax variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong‐to‐very‐strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ∼2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TWmax of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TWmax in specific areas. Plain Language Summary: The heat and humidity in the tropics can be particularly challenging for people to stay comfortable and healthy. This combination of heat and moisture is described using a measure called the wet‐bulb temperature (TW). We found that these extremely humid and hot conditions on land can be predicted about 5 months in advance using a physics‐based statistical model. The forecast is possible because the peak of El Niño comes before the peak in the warmest sea surface temperatures, which affects the maximum TW on land. This prediction can help tropical societies to better prepare for extreme heat. Key Points: Tropical wet‐bulb temperatures (TW) peak around 5 months after El Niño wintersA multiple linear regression model considering the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation index and the long‐term warming trend effectively explains TWmax variabilityOur model quantifies the likelihood of strong El Niño and human‐induced warming pushing TWmax to record‐breaking levels [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the volume transport of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean can affect the heat and mass balance in the central Arctic Ocean. To understand the impacts of Arctic storms on the inflow through Fram Strait, we implemented the NEMO ocean model for the Arctic Ocean, to simulate the decadal variations of the water volume transport through Fram Strait. The simulations suggest that the water inflow tends to be weaker in the decades of the 1960 and 2010s but stronger in the 1980s. The decadal variation is associated with decadal variability of the storm density in the Greenland Sea. When there is an increased storm density near Fram Strait, the southerly wind anomalies dominate the Atlantic water pathway. As a response, there is an increased Atlantic inflow through Fram Strait. Plain Language Summary: On decadal scales, Arctic storms near Fram Strait are highly correlated with the water volume transport into the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait. When there are more storms near Fram Strait, the transport tends to increase. In addition, the heat flux associated with the water volume transport reflects the impacts of both the linear trend in ocean temperature and the decadal variation of water volume transport. Key Points: On a decadal scale, the storms in the Greenland Sea can affect the volume transport of Atlantic water inflow through Fram StraitAssociated heat flux reflects the impacts of both the linear trend in ocean temperature and the decadal variation of water volume transport [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A severe hailstorm that occurred in Spain on 30 August 2022, caused material and human damage, including one fatality due to giant hailstones up to 12 cm in diameter. By applying a pseudo‐global warming approach, here we evaluate how a simultaneous marine heatwave (and anthropogenic climate change) affected a unique environment conductive to such giant hailstones. The main results show that the supercell development was influenced by an unprecedented amount of convective available energy, with significant contributions from thermodynamic factors. Numerical simulations where the marine heatwave is not present show a notable reduction in the hail‐favorable environments, related mainly to modifications in thermodynamic environment. Our simulations also indicate that the environment in a preindustrial‐like climate would be less favorable for convective hazards and thus the hailstorm event would likely not have been as severe as the observed one, being possible to perform a novel attribution of such kind. Plain Language Summary: In August 2022, northeastern Spain faced a damaging hailstorm with hailstones up to 12 cm, causing significant harm and one fatality. This study examined how hail‐favorable environments were modified by a marine heatwave and human‐induced climate change. Numerical simulations show that the storm's intensity was influenced by abundant atmospheric energy and moisture from the warm sea, partly influenced by human‐induced warming. When the warm sea factor was excluded from the simulations, hailstones were smaller. These findings emphasize the role of human‐induced climate change and warm sea surface temperature events in intensifying extreme and high‐impact weather events like hailstorms. Key Points: Unprecedented hailstones in Spain (up to 12 cm) caused widespread damage and one fatalityA record‐breaking marine heatwave enhanced the strong hail‐favorable environmentNovel demonstration of an extreme hailstorm event attribution to anthropogenic warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilizing climate. Here, we analyze precipitation projections in six multi‐century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high‐emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilization experiments. For example, stabilization reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilization experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation. Plain Language Summary: Climate model projections consistently predict that summer precipitation over Europe is expected to decline in the future as global temperatures rise under continued global warming. In our study, we use new climate model simulations that simulate a world where atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are no longer increasing and the rise in global temperatures has slowed down. We show that the summer rainfall decline across Europe can, to some extent, be reversed if global temperatures were to stabilize. This has important implications for adaptation and planning decisions, particularly in so‐called climate change "hot‐spots" such as the Mediterranean. Key Points: Climate stabilization experiments show significant differences in projected precipitation compared to high‐emission transient scenariosNorthern European and Mediterranean projected summer drying is partially reversedEuropean summer precipitation changes are consistent with the atmospheric response to Atlantic SST changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The difference in observed atmospheric anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere winter between 2021–22 and 2020–21 La Niña years indicated a tripole pattern consisting of a Japan cyclone, a Bering Sea anticyclone, and a cyclone over the North American continent. This feature, however, was not replicated in the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts. A set of model sensitivity experiments was performed to better understand the cause of this discrepancy. The results revealed the possible role of the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly over the Indian Ocean, on the observed circulation differences that was further modulated by internal atmospheric variability. The failure in predicting circulation changes in NMME was next attributed to the errors in SST predictions over the Indian Ocean and highlights the need for improvements in SST forecasts over this region. Plain Language Summary: The tropical SST anomalies associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to influence the global atmospheric circulation and are the major source of skill in U.S. seasonal predictions. As the cold phase of ENSO, La Niña features below‐normal SST anomalies and suppressed convection over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Such a tropical heating distribution favors the formation of the atmospheric circulation pattern that has a roughly opposite effect on U.S. surface climate compared to El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO, although the effect is not strictly symmetric. For the recent two La Niña boreal winters of 2020–21 and 2021–22, the observed circulation patterns differed, but dynamical seasonal prediction failed to replicate this feature. Understanding the cause for the discrepancy of circulation changes between prediction and observations is of fundamental importance for the improvement of seasonal forecasts. Toward this, we designed numerical experiments that are forced with observed and predicted SST anomalies over different ocean basins. The results show that it is the errors in SST prediction over the Indian Ocean that contributed to the failure in the prediction of circulation changes, highlighting the importance of skillful prediction of SST over this region. Key Points: The difference in observed atmospheric anomalies for 2022 versus 2021 La Niña boreal winters featured a Northern Hemisphere tripole patternIndian Ocean SST contributed to the formation of observed tripole pattern, with internal atmospheric variability modulating its magnitudeErrors in SST predictions over the Indian Ocean led to the failure in predictions of the circulation changes in NMME forecasts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current knowledge suggests a drought Indian monsoon (perhaps a severe one) when the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation each exhibit positive phases (a joint positive phase). For the monsoons, which are exceptions in this regard, we found northeast India often gets excess pre‐monsoon rainfall. Further investigation reveals that this excess pre‐monsoon rainfall is produced by the interaction of the large‐scale circulation associated with the joint phase with the mountains in northeast India. We posit that a warmer troposphere, a consequence of excess rainfall over northeast India, drives a stronger monsoon circulation and enhances monsoon rainfall over central India. Hence, we argue that pre‐monsoon rainfall over northeast India can be used for seasonal monsoon rainfall prediction over central India. Most importantly, its predictive value is at its peak when the Pacific Ocean exhibits a joint positive phase and the threat of extreme drought monsoon looms over India. Plain Language Summary: Monsoon brings rain over India. But some years are droughts. These drought monsoon years are historically associated with warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific and cooler SST in the northern Pacific. This motivated scientists to predict drought monsoons when we observe a warm eastern and cold northern Pacific Ocean. However, in some years, the monsoon is not drought despite the SST anomalies in the Pacific suggesting so. We find that, in such years, rainfall over northeastern India during pre‐monsoon months is often excessive. So we argue that when the Pacific Ocean state suggests a drought monsoon over India (central region) but if pre‐monsoon rainfall over northeastern India is excessive, then we can rely less on the drought signal of the Pacific Ocean. Key Points: Pre‐monsoon rainfall over northeastern India is a potential indicator of false alarms of monsoon drought over central Indian regionAssociation between northeastern India pre‐monsoon rainfall and monsoon rainfall over central India oscillates multidecadallySea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific are a key driver of pre‐monsoon rainfall over the northeastern India [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]