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In this study, the WRF-Chem v4.4 model was utilized to evaluate three bottom-up emission inventories (EDGAR-HTAP v2, v3, and KORUS v5) using surface and aircraft data in East Asia during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign period in 2016. All emission inventories were found to reproduce the diurnal variations of O3 and NO2 as compared to the surface monitor data. However, the spatial distributions of the daily maximum 8-hour average (MDA8) O3 in the model do not completely align with the observations. The model MDA8 O3 had a negative (positive) bias north (south) of 30°N over China. All simulations underestimated the observed CO by 50-60% over China and South Korea. In the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), EDGAR-HTAP v2, v3, and KORUS v5 simulated the vertical shapes and diurnal patterns of O3 and other precursors effectively, but the model underestimated the observed O3, CO and HCHO concentrations. Notably, the model aromatic VOCs were significantly underestimated with the three bottom-up emission inventories, although the KORUS v5 shows improvements. The model isoprene estimations had a positive bias relative to the observations, suggesting that the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.04 overestimated isoprene emissions. Additional model simulations were conducted by doubling CO and VOC emissions over China and South Korea to investigate the causes of the model O3 biases and the effects of the long-range transport on the O3 over South Korea. The doubled CO and VOC emission simulations improved the model O3 simulations for the local emission dominant case, but led to the model O3 overestimations for the transport dominant case, which emphasizes the need for accurate representations of the local VOC emissions over South Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main focus of this study is to develop a dynamic-coupling 'inline' air quality modeling system for the meteorology-induced emissions with simulated meteorological data. To improve the spatiotemporal representations and accuracy of onroad vehicle emissions, which are largely sensitive to local meteorology, we developed the 'inline' coupler module called 'MetEmis' for Meteorology-Induced Emission sources within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 5.3.2 modeling system. It can dynamically estimate meteorology-induced hourly gridded emissions within the CMAQ modeling system using modeled meteorology. The CMAQ air quality modeling system is applied over the continental U.S. for two months (January and July 2019) for two emissions scenarios: a) current 'offline' based onroad vehicle emissions, and b) 'inline' CMAQ-MetEmis onroad vehicle emissions. Overall, the 'MetEmis' coupler allows us to dynamically simulate onroad vehicle emissions from the MOVES onroad emission model for CMAQ with a better spatio-temporal representation compared to the 'offline' scenario based on static temporal profiles. With an instance interpolation calculation approach, the new 'inline' approach significantly enhances the computational efficiency and accuracy of estimating mobile source emissions, compared to the existing 'offline' approach that yields almost identical hourly emission estimation. The domain total of daily VOC emissions from the 'inline' scenario shows the largest impacts from the local meteorology, which is approximately 10% lower than the ones from the 'offline' scenario. Especially, the major difference of VOC estimates was shown over the California region. These local meteorology impacts on onroad vehicle emissions via CMAQ-MetEmis revealed an improvement in hourly NO2, daily maximum ozone, and daily average PM2.5 patterns with a higher agreement and correlation with daily ground observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the purpose of improving PM prediction skills in East Asia, we estimated a new background error covariance matrix (BEC) for aerosol data assimilation using surface PM2.5 observations that accounts for the uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions. In contrast to the conventional method to estimate the BEC that uses perturbations in meteorological data, this method additionally considered the perturbations using two different emission inventories. The impacts of the new BEC were then tested for the prediction of surface PM2.5 over East Asia using Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) initialized by three-dimensional variational method (3D-VAR). The surface PM2.5 data measured at 154 sites in South Korea and 1,535 sites in China were assimilated every six hours during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) campaign period (1 May-14 June 2016). Data assimilation with our new BEC showed better agreement with the surface PM2.5 observations than that with the conventional method. Our method also showed closer agreement with the observations in 24-hour PM2.5 predictions with ~ 44 % fewer negative biases than the conventional method. We conclude that increased standard deviations, together with horizontal and vertical length scales in the new BEC, tend to improve the data assimilation and short-term predictions for the surface PM2.5. This paper also suggests further research efforts devoted to estimating the BEC to improve PM2.5 predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the purpose of providing reliable and robust air quality predictions, an operational air quality prediction system was developed for the main air quality criteria species in South Korea (PM10, PM2.5, CO, O3, and SO2). The main caveat of the system is to prepare the initial conditions (ICs) of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations using observations from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) and ground-based monitoring networks in northeast Asia. The performance of the air quality prediction system was evaluated during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) campaign period (1 May-12 June 2016). Data assimilation (DA) of optimal interpolation (OI) with Kalman filter was used in this study. One major advantage of the system is that it can predict not only particulate matter (PM) concentrations but also PM chemical composition including five main constituents: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic aerosols (OAs), and elemental carbon (EC). In addition, it is also capable of predicting the concentrations of gaseous pollutants (CO, O3 and SO2). In this sense, this new operational air quality prediction system is comprehensive. The results with the ICs (DA RUN) were compared with those of the CMAQ simulations without ICs (BASE RUN). For almost all of the species, the application of ICs led to improved performance in terms of correlation, errors, and biases over the entire campaign period. The DA RUN agreed reasonably well with the observations for PM10 (IOA = 0.60; MB = -13.54) and PM2.5 (IOA = 0.71; MB = -2.43) as compared to the BASE RUN for PM10 (IOA = 0.51; MB = -27.18) and PM2.5 (IOA = 0.67; MB = -9.9). A significant improvement was also found with the DA RUN in terms of bias. For example, for CO, the MB of -0.27 (BASE RUN) was greatly enhanced to -0.036 (DA RUN). In the cases of O3 and SO2, the DA RUN also showed better performance than the BASE RUN. Further, several more practical issues frequently encountered in the operational air quality prediction system were also discussed. In order to attain more accurate ozone predictions, the DA of NO2 mixing ratios should be implemented with careful consideration of the measurement artifacts (i.e., inclusion of alkyl nitrates, HNO3, and PANs in the ground-observed NO2 mixing ratios). It was also discussed that, in order to ensure accurate nocturnal predictions of the concentrations of the ambient species, accurate predictions of the mixing layer heights (MLH) should be achieved from the meteorological modeling. Several advantages of the current air quality prediction system, such as its non-static free parameter scheme, dust episode prediction, and possible multiple implementations of DA prior to actual predictions, were also discussed. These configurations are all possible because the current DA system is not computationally expensive. In the ongoing and future works, more advanced DA techniques such as the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method and ensemble Kalman filter (EnK) are being tested and will be introduced to the Korean operational air quality forecasting system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]