1. Development and validation of a risk calculator for post-discharge venous thromboembolism following hepatectomy for malignancy
- Author
-
Ryan P. Merkow, David J. Bentrem, Anthony D. Yang, Ryan J. Ellis, and Cary Jo R. Schlick
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Post discharge ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Aftercare ,Malignancy ,Logistic regression ,Risk Assessment ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,Postoperative Complications ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Neoplasms ,Internal medicine ,Hospital discharge ,Hepatectomy ,Humans ,Medicine ,cardiovascular diseases ,Hepatology ,business.industry ,Gastroenterology ,Venous Thromboembolism ,medicine.disease ,Patient Discharge ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Chemoprophylaxis ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,business ,Venous thromboembolism ,Cancer surgery - Abstract
Background Post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) chemoprophylaxis decreases VTEs following cancer surgery, however identifying high-risk patients remains difficult. Our objectives were to (1) identify factors available at hospital discharge associated with post-discharge VTE following hepatectomy for malignancy and (2) develop and validate a post-discharge VTE risk calculator to evaluate patient-specific risk. Methods Patients who underwent hepatectomy for malignancy from 2014 to 2017 were identified from the ACS NSQIP hepatectomy procedure targeted module. Multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with post-discharge VTE. A post-discharge VTE risk calculator was constructed, and predicted probabilities of post-discharge VTE were calculated. Results Among 11 172 patients, 95 (0.9%) developed post-discharge VTE. Post-discharge VTE was associated with obese BMI (OR 2.29 vs. normal BMI [95%CI 1.31–3.99]), right hepatectomy/trisegmentectomy (OR 1.63 vs. partial/wedge [95%CI 1.04–2.57]), and several inpatient postoperative complications: renal insufficiency (OR 5.29 [95%CI 1.99–14.07]), transfusion (OR 1.77 [95%CI 1.12–2.80]), non-operative procedural intervention (OR 2.97 [95%CI 1.81–4.86]), and post-hepatectomy liver failure (OR 2.22 [95%CI 1.21–4.08]). Post-discharge VTE risk ranged from 0.3% to 30.2%. Twenty iterations of 10-fold cross validation identified internal validity. Conclusions Risk factors from all phases of care, including inpatient complications, are associated with post-discharge VTE following hepatectomy. Identifying high-risk patients may allow for personalized risk-based post-discharge chemoprophylaxis prescribing.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF