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Recent field observations suggest that cloud-top precipitation generating cells (GCs) are ubiquitous in the warm-frontal and comma-head regions of midlatitude winter cyclones. The presence of fallstreaks emanating from the GCs and their persistence either to the surface or until merging into precipitation bands suggests that GCs are a critical component of the precipitation process in these cyclones. This paper is the second part of a three-part series that investigates the dynamics of GCs through very-high-resolution idealized Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations. This paper assesses the role of cloud-top instability paired with nighttime, daytime, or no radiative forcing on the development and maintenance (or lack) of GCs. Under initially unstable conditions at cloud top, GCs develop regardless of radiative forcing but only persist clearly with radiative forcing. Cloud-top destabilization due to longwave cooling leads to development of GCs even under initially neutral and stable conditions, providing a physical explanation for the observed ubiquity of GCs atop winter cyclones. GCs do not develop in initially stable simulations with no radiation. Decreased range in vertical velocity spectra under daytime radiative forcing is consistent with offset of the destabilizing influence of longwave cooling by shortwave heating.

Time series of stratospheric climate variables are used to derive master equations in the discretized phase space spanned by three variables. The empirical master equation (EME) predicts the probability density function (PDF) in this phase space. The numerical properties of EMEs have been investigated in the first part of this paper using synthetic time series. In this part of the paper, the time series consist of normalized and deseasonalized daily and zonally averaged meteorologically relevant quantities obtained from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and observations. One EME reproduces the climatological features of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind including the probabilistic character of transitions between phases. Also, the Arctic stratosphere at 10 hPa is about 2 K warmer during the easterly phase of the QBO than during the westerly phase. Another EME including a time series of the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm hints that the relationship between the QBO and the temperature in the Arctic stratosphere is shifted toward warmer (colder) states by about 1 K during periods of high (low) solar activity. Finally, an EME is derived from time series of variables highly correlated with the northern annular mode (NAM). The EME shows that NAM anomalies in the middle stratosphere propagate into the lower stratosphere and then into the lower troposphere with a time scale of about two and four weeks, respectively. The influence of strong tropospheric NAM anomalies is confined to the lower stratosphere.

This paper discusses a simulation obtained with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ‘‘SKYHI’’ troposphere‐stratosphere‐mesosphere general circulation model run at very high horizontal resolution (;60-km grid spacing) and without any parameterization of subgrid-scale gravity wave drag. The results are for a period around the austral winter solstice, and the emphasis is on the simulated Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter circulation. Comparisons are made with results obtained from lower horizontal resolution versions of the same model. The focus in this paper is on two particularly striking features of the high-resolution simulation: the extratropical surface winds and the winter polar middle atmospheric vortex. In the extratropical SH, the simulated surface westerlies and meridional surface pressure gradients in the high-resolution model are considerably stronger than observed and are stronger than those simulated at lower horizontal resolution. In the middle atmosphere, the high-resolution model produces a simulation of the zonal mean winter polar vortex that is considerably improved over that found with lower resolution models (although it is still significantly affected by the usual cold pole bias). Neither the improvement of the middle atmospheric polar vortex simulation nor the deterioration of the simulation of surface winds with increased model resolution shows a clear convergence, even at the ;60-km grid spacing employed here.

Arctic climate change in winter is tightly linked to changes in the strength of surface temperature inversions, which occur frequently in the present climate as Arctic air masses form during polar night. Recent work proposed that, in a warmer climate, increasing low-cloud optical thickness of maritime air advected over high-latitude landmasses during polar night could suppress the formation of Arctic air masses, amplifying winter warming over continents and sea ice. But this mechanism was based on single-column simulations that could not assess the role of fractional cloud cover change. This paper presents two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulations that support the single-column model results: low-cloud optical thickness and duration increase strongly with initial air temperature, slowing the surface cooling rate as the climate is warmed. The cloud-resolving model cools less at the surface than the single-column model, and the sensitivity of its cooling to warmer initial temperatures is also higher, because it produces cloudier atmospheres with stronger lower-tropospheric mixing and distributes cloud-top cooling over a deeper atmospheric layer with larger heat capacity. Resolving larger-scale cloud turbulence has the greatest impact on the microphysics schemes that best represent general observed features of mixed-phase clouds, increasing their sensitivity to climate warming. These findings support the hypothesis that increasing insulation of the high-latitude land surface by low clouds in a warmer world could act as a strong positive feedback in future climate change and suggest studying Arctic air formation in a three-dimensional climate model.

In this paper, the authors suggest a dynamical mechanism involved in the revival of the summer monsoon after breaks. In this context, the authors carry out a diagnostic analysis using the datasets from National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 for the period 1979–2007 to identify a robust mechanism that typifies breaks and subsequent revival of monsoon. The authors find during the peak of significant breaks an anomalous southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet stream, which is invariably accompanied by an anomalous northward shift of a stronger-than-normal easterly jet. These major changes during a break facilitate an instability mechanism, which apparently leads to formation of a synoptic disturbance. Formation of such a disturbance is critical to the subsequent revival of the summer monsoon in 61% of the observed break-to-active revivals.Computations of energetics and correlation analysis carried out suggest an increase in the eddy kinetic energy at the expense of the mean kinetic energy during the breaks, in agreement with the formation of the synoptic disturbance. This demonstrates that barotropic instability in the presence of a monsoon basic flow is the primary physical mechanism that controls the revival of the summer monsoon subsequent to the break events.

Studies have suggested that the persistence in the meridional vacillation of the midlatitude jet (i.e., annular mode time scale) in comprehensive climate models is related to the model biases in climatological jet latitude, with important implications for projections of future climates and midlatitude weather events. Through the use of the recently developed finite-amplitude wave activity formalism and feedback quantifying techniques, this paper has quantified the role of barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in annular mode time scales using an idealized dry atmospheric model. The eddy–mean flow interaction that characterizes the persistent anomalous state of the midlatitude jet depends on processes associated with the lower-tropospheric source of vertically propagating Rossby waves, baroclinic mechanisms, and processes associated with upper-tropospheric wave propagation and breaking, barotropic mechanisms. A variety of climate change–like thermal forcings are used to generate a range of meridional shifts in the midlatitude eddy-driven jet. The idealized model shows a reduction in annular mode time scale associated with an increase in jet latitude, similar to comprehensive climate models. This decrease in time scale can be attributed to a similar decrease in the strength of the barotropic eddy feedback, which, in the positive phase of the annular mode, is characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV) mixing on the equatorward flank of the climatological jet. The decrease in subtropical PV mixing is, in turn, associated with a stronger subtropical jet as the eddy-driven jet is more distant from the subtropics. These results highlight the importance of subtropical eddy–mean flow interactions for the persistence of an eddy-driven jet.

Over coastal mountain ranges of the Asian monsoon region, heavy orographic rainfall is frequently associated with low precipitation-top heights (PTHs). This leads to conspicuous underestimation of rainfall using microwave radiometer algorithms, which conventionally assume that heavy rainfall is associated with high PTHs. Although topographically forced upward motion is important for rainfall occurrence, it does not fully constrain precipitation profiles in this region. This paper focuses on the thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere that determine PTHs in tropical coastal mountains of Asia (Western Ghats, Arakan Yoma, Bilauktaung, Cardamom, Annam Range, and the Philippines). PTHs of heavy orographic rainfall generally decrease with enhanced low- and midlevel relative humidity, especially during the summer monsoon. In contrast, PTHs over the Annam Range of the Indochina Peninsula increase with enhanced low-level and midlevel relative humidity during the transition from boreal summer to winter monsoon, demonstrating that convection depth is not simply a function of humidity. Instead, PTHs of heavy orographic rainfall decreased with increasing low-level stability for all monsoon regions considered in this study, as well as the Annam Range during the transition from boreal summer to winter monsoon. Therefore, low-level static stability, which inhibits cloud growth and promotes cloud detrainment, appears to be the most important parameter in determining PTHs of heavy rainfall in the Asian monsoon region.

The processes responsible for double-peak latitudinal structures in the time-averaged tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling, centered near 70 hPa and 20°N/S, previously noted in ERA-Interim and other reanalysis and model datasets, are considered. It is demonstrated that the structure of the wave force resolved by ERA-Interim consistently balances the angular momentum transport associated with the double peak. Analysis of the corresponding structures in diabatic heating rates from ERA-Interim indicates that the peaks arise predominantly from the meridional structure in ozone concentrations and the associated absorption of both shortwave and longwave radiation. Additional smaller contributions arise from local absorption of longwave radiation emitted from the relatively warm layers above and below, as well as from cloud-related radiative effects and nonradiative diabatic heating. The temperature at 70 hPa is slightly higher near 20°N/S than at the equator, opposite of what would be expected if the latitudinal structure in radiative heating were associated with local relaxation. It is proposed on the basis of this analysis that the primary cause of the peaks in upwelling is the externally imposed (i.e., nonrelaxational) part of the radiative heating field. The dynamical plausibility of this hypothesis is investigated in a companion paper.

This paper assesses the influence of radiative forcing and latent heating on the development and maintenance of cloud-top generating cells (GCs) in high-resolution idealized Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations with initial conditions representative of the vertical structure of a cyclone observed during the Profiling of Winter Storms campaign. Simulated GC kinematics, structure, and ice mass are shown to compare well quantitatively with Wyoming Cloud Radar, cloud probe, and other observations. Sensitivity to radiative forcing was assessed in simulations with longwave-only (nighttime), longwave-and-shortwave (daytime), and no-radiation parameterizations. The domain-averaged longwave cooling rate exceeded 0.50 K h−1 near cloud top, with maxima greater than 2.00 K h−1 atop GCs. Shortwave warming was weaker by comparison, with domain-averaged values of 0.10–0.20 K h−1 and maxima of 0.50 K h−1 atop GCs. The stabilizing influence of cloud-top shortwave warming was evident in the daytime simulation’s vertical velocity spectrum, with 1% of the updrafts in the 6.0–8.0-km layer exceeding 1.20 m s−1, compared to 1.80 m s−1 for the nighttime simulation. GCs regenerate in simulations with radiative forcing after the initial instability is released but do not persist when radiation is not parameterized, demonstrating that radiative forcing is critical to GC maintenance under the thermodynamic and vertical wind shear conditions in this cyclone. GCs are characterized by high ice supersaturation (RHice > 150%) and latent heating rates frequently in excess of 2.00 K h−1 collocated with vertical velocity maxima. Ice precipitation mixing ratio maxima of greater than 0.15 g kg−1 were common within GCs in the daytime and nighttime simulations.

This paper examines the interactions between ice-albedo, lapse-rate and cloud-top feedbacks with the aid of GCM climate experiments published by Wetherald and Manabe (1975). First we establish that the long-wave modification effect (the so-called “greenhouse effect”) of clouds depends largely on the temperature difference Tsc between surface and cloud tops. If Tsc changes with a change in the surface temperature Ts, then the longwave modification effect of clouds would change which would result in a modification of the initial change in Ts. This feedback between the longwave modification effect of clouds and Ts, is referred to as the cloud top feedback in this paper. The sign of this feedback is considered positive (negative) when it amplifies (decreases) an initial change in Ts and it is shown that the sign is determined by the sign of dTsc/dTs. In the GCM climate experiments of Wetherald and Manabe (1975), dTsc/dTs 0 at high latitudes; consequently, cloud top...

This paper presents analyses of the microphysical structure of comma head stratiform precipitation in 14 continental cyclones, focusing on fall streaks of hydrometeors produced by cloud-top convective generating cells. Data were obtained at temperatures between −4° and −45°C using in situ instrumentation and the W-band University of Wyoming Cloud Radar, all operated aboard the National Science Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research C-130. Analyses are presented first for a case study of one cyclone, followed by statistical analyses of the full dataset. Using radar-based objective classifications, the statistical percentile number concentrations averaged 1.9 times larger within the fall streaks compared to the regions between them, and the corresponding ice water content and median mass diameter values averaged 2.2 and 1.1 times larger. Ice-phase conditions were predominant within the stratiform precipitation, with deposition and aggregation the primary ice growth mechanisms. No distinct vertical velocity signatures were associated with the fall streaks, and similar ice growth mechanisms were common within and between them. Combined with observations of cloud-top generating cells in many of the same cyclones, these analyses provide a more complete description of the comma head microphysical structure and the physical processes producing precipitation. Whereas the generating cells are critical to nucleation and initial ice growth, the majority of ice growth (exceeding 90% of the median ice water contents in the case study) typically occurred below the generating-cell level, where enhanced moisture associated with synoptic-scale ascent was present.

In Newman and Nash (2005, hereafter NN2005), the evolution of the unusual Southern Hemisphere (SH) 2002 stratospheric winter was discussed. This SH winter had a very large planetary wave-2 event in late September that resulted in an SH major stratospheric sudden warming. In particular, we stated that ‘‘This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the SH and split the Antarctic ozone hole.’’ Sehra (2014) has asked for an explanation as to why Sehra (1975, hereafter S1975) was not referenced in NN2005. Specifically, S1975 was not cited because a major stratospheric sudden warming is not evident in those results or in the discussion. S1975 documented temperature fluctuations over Molodezhnaya station (688S, 468E) in the 30–80-km altitude range using 60 rocketsondes during 1972 (16 observations of winds using falling chaff, 55–90-km altitude range). The S1975 observations provide an early documentation of in situ upperstratospheric and mesospheric temperatures and winds. For our NN2005 paper, there are two issues with respect to S1975

This paper presents analyses of the microphysical structure of cloud-top convective generating cells at temperatures between −10° and −55°C across the comma head of 11 continental cyclones, using data collected by the W-band Wyoming Cloud Radar and in situ instrumentation aboard the National Science Foundation (NSF)/NCAR C-130. A case study of one cyclone is presented, followed by statistical analyses of the entire dataset. Ice particle number concentrations averaged 1.9 times larger inside generating cells compared to outside, and derived ice water contents and median mass diameters averaged 2.2 and 1.1 times larger in cells, respectively. Supercooled water was directly measured at temperatures between −31.4° and −11.1°C, with the median and 95th-percentile liquid water content increasing from ~0.09 to 0.12 g m−3 and 0.14 to 0.28 g m−3 over this temperature range, respectively. Liquid water was present in 26% of observations within cells and 18% of observations between cells over the same temperature range, and it was nearly ubiquitous at temperatures above −16°C. The larger ice particle concentrations in cells are consistent with greater ice production in convective updrafts. The increased mass and diameter of the ice particles demonstrate that generating cells provide environments favorable for enhanced particle growth. The impact of water saturation and supercooled water in the cells was evident, with rapid particle growth by diffusion and sometimes riming apparent, in addition to aggregation. Turbulent mixing lessened the observed differences between cells and surrounding regions, with supercooled water observed within and between cells, similar habits within and between cells, and rimed particles evident even in ice-phase conditions.

By analyzing the almost-decade-long record of water vapor measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the NASA Aura satellite and by detailed diagnostic analysis of the results from state-of-the art climate model simulations, this study confirmed the conceptual picture of the interannual variation in equatorial stratospheric water vapor discussed in earlier papers (e.g., Geller et al.). The interannual anomalies in water vapor are strongly related to the dynamical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and this study presents the first QBO composite of the time–height structure of the equatorial water vapor anomalies. The anomalies display upward propagation below about 10 hPa in a manner analogous to the annual “tape recorder” effect, but at higher levels they show clear downward propagation. This study examined these variations in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)-AGCM and in four models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that simulate realistic QBOs. Diagnostic budget analysis of the MIROC-AGCM data and comparisons among the CMIP5 model results demonstrate (i) the importance of temperature anomalies at the tropopause induced by the QBO for lower-stratospheric water vapor variations and (ii) that upper-stratospheric water vapor anomalies are largely driven by advection of the mean vertical gradient of water content by the QBO interannual fluctuations in the vertical wind.

Aerosols influence cloud and precipitation development in complex ways due to myriad feedbacks at a variety of scales from individual clouds through entire storm systems. This paper describes the implementation, testing, and results of a newly modified bulk microphysical parameterization with explicit cloud droplet nucleation and ice activation by aerosols. Idealized tests and a high-resolution, convection-permitting, continental-scale, 72-h simulation with five sensitivity experiments showed that increased aerosol number concentration results in more numerous cloud droplets of overall smaller size and delays precipitation development. Furthermore, the smaller droplet sizes cause the expected increased cloud albedo effect and more subtle longwave radiation effects. Although increased aerosols generally hindered the warm-rain processes, regions of mixed-phase clouds were impacted in slightly unexpected ways with more precipitation falling north of a synoptic-scale warm front. Aerosol impacts to regions of light precipitation, less than approximately 2.5 mm h−1, were far greater than impacts to regions with higher precipitation rates. Comparisons of model forecasts with five different aerosol states versus surface precipitation measurements revealed that even a large-scale storm system with nearly a thousand observing locations did not indicate which experiment produced a more correct final forecast, indicating a need for far longer-duration simulations due to the magnitude of both model forecast error and observational uncertainty. Last, since aerosols affect cloud and precipitation phase and amount, there are resulting implications to a variety of end-user applications such as surface sensible weather and aircraft icing.

The role of physical forcing mechanisms that contribute to the decay of winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclones during the period 1979–2009 are examined using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The paired Zwack–Okossi tendency equation and omega equation explained in part I of this paper is employed to investigate the total effects of forcing processes (the direct effect of the forcing mechanisms and the indirect effect of the induced adiabatic cooling) that dissipate the 950-hPa cyclonic geostrophic vorticity at the cyclone center. Composite analyses reveal that the commencement of the decay is associated mainly with the upper-level anticyclonic vorticity advection, cold-air advection, and positive ageostrophic vorticity tendency. The secondary contributor to the dissipation of cyclonic circulation is the lower-tropospheric adiabatic cooling induced mainly by friction and positive ageostrophic vorticity tendency. The dynamics is found to be different at the beginning of the decay than in the later stages. While the negative tilt of troughs aloft and the surface cyclone is required for cyclolysis to occur, low air processes show a greater effect in the termination of the low pressure systems. Further, the total effect of the vorticity advection and temperature advection terms are modest, while the ageostrophic vorticity tendency and friction terms show a greater total negative contribution. This is because the two latter terms decrease the cyclonic geostrophic vorticity at the low center through both their direct and indirect effects. The latent heat release maximizing at 800–700 hPa produces cyclonic circulation, thus reducing the spindown of decaying cyclones.

Based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset covering 1958–2012, this paper demonstrates a statistically significant relationship between the occurrence of major stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) in midwinter and the seasonal timing of stratospheric final warming events (SFWs) in spring. Specifically, early spring SFWs that on average occur in early March tend to be preceded by non-SSW winters, while late spring SFWs that on average take place up until early May are mostly preceded by SSW events in midwinter. Though the occurrence (absence) of SSW events in midwinter may not always be followed by late (early) SFWs in spring, there is a much higher (lower) probability of late SFWs than early SFWs in spring after SSW (non-SSW) winters, particularly when the winter SSWs occur no earlier than early January or in the period from late January to early February. Diagnosis shows that, corresponding to an SSW (non-SSW) winter and the following late (early)-SFW spring, intensity of planetary wave activity in the stratosphere tends to evolve out of phase from midwinter to the following spring, being anomalously stronger (weaker) in winter and anomalously weaker (stronger) in spring. Furthermore, the strengthening of the western Eurasian high, which appears during early to mid-January in late-SFW years but does not appear until late February to mid-March in early-SFW years, always precedes the strengthening of planetary wave activity in the stratosphere and thus acts as a tropospheric precursor to the seasonal timing of SFWs.

This paper investigates the connection between the delay in the final breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, the stratospheric final warming (SFW), and Southern Hemisphere climate trends. The authors first analyze Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and three climate model outputs with different climate forcings. Climate trends appear when there is a delay in the timing of SFWs. When regressed onto the SFW dates (which reflect the anomaly when the SFW is delayed for one standard deviation of its onset dates), the anomaly pattern bears a resemblance to the observed climate trends, for all the model outputs, even without any trends. This suggests that the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations are organized by the timing of SFWs in both the interannual time scale and climate trends because of external forcings. The authors further explore the role of the SFW using a simplified dynamical model in which the ozone depletion is mimicked by a springtime polar stratospheric cooling. The responses of zonal-mean atmospheric circulation, including zonal wind, temperature, and poleward edge of the Hadley cell and the Ferrel cell, are similar to the observed climate trends. The authors divide the years into those in which the SFW is delayed and those in which it is not. The responses for the years in which the SFW is delayed are very similar to the overall response, while the stratosphere is only characterized by the localized cooling for those years in which the SFW is not delayed, with no subsequent downward influence into the troposphere. This suggests that, in order to affect the troposphere, ozone depletion must first delay the SFW so as to induce a deep response in planetary wave drag and the associated eddy-driven circulation.

This paper reports a comprehensive diagnostic analysis of mass and angular momentum (AM) circulations and their budgets in boreal winter using the 32-yr daily NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (1979–2010). The diagnosis is performed using instantaneous total flows before taking time and zonal average without decomposition of time mean and transient flows and separation of zonal mean and wavy flows. The analysis reveals that embedded in a broad hemispheric thermally direct meridional mass circulation in each hemisphere are three distinct but interconnected thermally direct meridional cells. They are the tropical Hadley cell, the stratospheric cell, and the extratropical zonally asymmetric Hadley cell. The tropical Hadley cell corresponds to the Hadley cell of the classic three-cell model whereas the extratropical Hadley cell and the stratospheric cell correspond to the eddy-driven extratropical residual circulation. The joint consideration of meridional mass and AM circulations helps to substantiate Hadley’s original view that the hemispheric-wide thermally direct meridional circulation can have broad surface easterly in the tropics and westerly in the extratropics. Because the mass circulation cannot have a net divergence anywhere in long time mean and the earth’s AM decreases toward the poles, the companion AM transport in the equatorward cold air branch inevitably has to be divergent. The downward transfer of westerly AM to the cold air branch by the pressure torque associated with westward tilted baroclinic waves dominates such divergence in the extratropics, explaining the prevailing surface westerly there. In the tropics and polar region where the meridional circulation is nearly zonally symmetric, the dominance of this divergence results in a surface easterly there.

Diurnal variations of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) and vertical motions have been related to the development of summer precipitation individually, but their underlying connection and consequences for the nocturnal and afternoon precipitation peaks are less discussed. This paper examines how together they help explain the spatial pattern of the frequency of summer convective precipitation over the Great Plains. A one-layer linearized boundary layer model is used to reproduce the diurnal cycle of the GPLLJ. Its periodic rising and sinking motions compare favorably with those of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climatology. Its development of rising motion is also consistent with the enhanced occurrence of nocturnal convective precipitation over the central and eastern Great Plains (90°–100°W) and afternoon maximum over the western Great Plains (100°–105°W). The diurnal phasing of the vertical motions can be captured by the model only if the diurnal oscillation of the jet is forced by both near surface geopotential gradients and friction with observed diurnal variability. The diurnal variation of the vertical velocity (or boundary layer convergence and divergence) is explained by local vorticity balance; that is, following the diurnal oscillation of the jet, the zonal gradient of the meridional wind oscillates and, thus, relative vorticity and its tendency. The slowing down of the jet after midnight decreases the anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity and consequently gives a positive (negative) vorticity tendency to the east (west) of the jet core; anomalous rising (sinking) motions occur to balance these positive (negative) vorticity tendencies. The pattern reverses when the jet is relatively weak.

This paper presents analyses of the finescale structure of convection in the comma head of two continental winter cyclones and a 16-storm climatology analyzing the distribution of lightning within the comma head. A case study of a deep cyclone is presented illustrating how upper-tropospheric dry air associated with the dry slot can intrude over moist Gulf air, creating two zones of precipitation within the comma head: a northern zone characterized by deep stratiform clouds topped by generating cells and a southern zone marked by elevated convection. Lightning, when it occurred, originated from the elevated convection. A second case study of a cutoff low is presented to examine the relationship between lightning flashes and wintertime convection. Updrafts within convective cells in both storms approached 6–8 m s−1, and convective available potential energy in the cell environment reached approximately 50–250 J kg−1. Radar measurements obtained in convective updraft regions showed enhanced spectral width within the temperature range from −10° to −20°C, while microphysical measurements showed the simultaneous presence of graupel, ice particles, and supercooled water at the same temperatures, together supporting noninductive charging as an important charging mechanism in these storms. A climatology of lightning flashes across the comma head of 16 winter cyclones shows that lightning flashes commonly occur on the southern side of the comma head where dry-slot air is more likely to overrun lower-level moist air. Over 90% of the cloud-to-ground flashes had negative polarity, suggesting the cells were not strongly sheared aloft. About 55% of the flashes were associated with cloud-to-ground flashes while 45% were in-cloud flashes.

In this paper, precursors to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its transitions are investigated to understand the dynamical cause of the interdecadal NAO variability from dominant negative (NAO−) events during 1950–77 (P1) to dominant positive (NAO+) events during 1978–2010 (P2). It is found that the phase of the NAO event depends strongly on the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) prior to the NAO onset. The NAO− (NAO+) events occur frequently when the NAJ core prior to the NAO onset is displaced southward (northward), as the situation within P1 (P2). Thus, the northward (southward) shift of the NAJ from its mean position is a precursor to the NAO+ (NAO−) event. This finding is further supported by results obtained from a weakly nonlinear model. Furthermore, the model results show that, when the Atlantic mean zonal wind exceeds a critical strength under which the dipole anomaly prior to the NAO onset is stationary, in situ NAO− (NAO+) events, which are events not preceded by opposite events, can occur frequently during P1 (P2) when the Atlantic storm track is not too strong. This mean zonal wind condition is easily satisfied during P1 and P2. However, when the Atlantic storm track (mean zonal wind) prior to the NAO onset is markedly intensified (weakened), the NAO event can undergo a transition from one phase to another, especially in a relatively strong background westerly wind, the Atlantic storm track has to be strong enough to produce a phase transition.

A significant fraction of interannual variability (IAV) of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is known to be governed by “internal” dynamics arising from interactions between high-frequency fluctuations and the annual cycle. While several studies indicate that monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) are at the heart of such internal IAV of the monsoon, the exact mechanism through which MISOs influence the seasonal mean monsoon IAV has remained elusive so far. Here it is proposed that exchange of kinetic energy (KE) between the seasonal mean and MISOs provides a conceptual framework for understanding the role of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in causing IAV and interdecadal variability (IDV) of the ISM. The rate of KE exchange between seasonal mean and ISOs is calculated in frequency domain for each Northern Hemispheric summer season over the ISM domain, using 44 yr of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The seasonal mean KE and the rate of KE exchange between seasonal mean and ISO shows a significant relationship at both the 850- and 200-hPa pressure levels. Since the rate of KE exchange between seasonal mean and ISO is found to be independent of known external forcing, the variability in seasonal mean KE arising from this exchange process can be considered as an internal component explaining about 20% of IAV and about 50% of IDV. Contrary to the many modeling studies attributing the weakening of tropical circulation to the stabilization of the atmosphere by global warming, this paper provides an alternative view that internal dynamics arising from scale interactions might be playing a significant role in determining the decreasing strength of the monsoon circulation.

This paper reports an attribution analysis that quantifies addible contributions to the observed temperature anomalies from radiative and nonradiative processes in terms of both amplitude and spatial pattern for the two most prominent surface temperature patterns in an El Niño winter. One is the El Niño SST pattern consisting of warming SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific basin surrounded by cooling SST anomalies in the western and subtropical Pacific, and the other is a tripole surface temperature anomaly characteristic of a positive Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. The decomposition of the observed temperature anomalies is achieved with the coupled atmosphere–surface climate feedback-responses analysis method (CFRAM), which is formulated utilizing energy balance in the atmosphere–surface columns and linearization of radiative energy perturbation. Out of the mean amplitude of 0.78 K of the El Niño SST pattern, the oceanic dynamics and heat storage term alone contributes to 2.34 K. Water vapor feedback adds another 1.6 K whereas both cloud and atmospheric dynamical feedbacks are negative, reducing the mean amplitude by 2.02 and 1.07 K, respectively. Atmospheric dynamical feedback contributes more than 50% (0.73 K) of the mean amplitude (1.32 K) of the PNA surface temperature pattern. Water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks contribute 0.34 and 0.13 K, respectively. The surface processes, including oceanic dynamics in the North Pacific, heat storage anomalies, and surface sensible/latent heat flux anomalies of ocean and land also contribute positively to the PNA surface temperature pattern (about 0.14 K). Cloud and ozone feedback, although very weak, act to oppose the PNA surface temperature anomaly.

To understand the atmospheric response to a midlatitude oceanic front, this paper uses a quasigeostrophic (QG) model with moist processes. A well-known, three-level QG model on the sphere has been modified to include such processes in an aquaplanet setting. Its response is analyzed in terms of the upper-level atmospheric jet for sea surface temperature (SST) fronts of different profiles and located at different latitudes. When the SST front is sufficiently strong, it tends to anchor the mean atmospheric jet, suggesting that the jet’s spatial location and pattern are mainly affected by the latitude of the SST front. Changes in the jet’s pattern are studied, focusing on surface sensible heat flux and on moisture effects through latent heat release. It is found that latent heat release due to moist processes is modified when the SST front is changed, and this is responsible for the meridional displacement of the jet. Moreover, both latent heat release and surface sensible heat flux contribute to the jet’s strengthening. These results highlight the role of SST fronts and moist processes in affecting the characteristics of the midlatitude jet stream and of its associated storm track, particularly their positions.

This paper presents a series of dynamical states using an idealized three-dimensional general circulation model with gray radiation and latent heat release. Beginning with the case of radiative–convective equilibrium, an eddy-free two-dimensional state with zonally symmetric flow is developed, followed by a three-dimensional state that includes baroclinic eddy fluxes. In both dry and moist cases, it is found that the deepening of the tropical tropospheric layer and the shape of the extratropical tropopause can be understood through eddy-driven processes such as the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. These results suggest that eddies alone can generate a realistic tropopause profile in the absence of moist convection and that stratospheric circulation is an important contributor to tropopause structure.

The link between Rossby wave breaking (RWB) and the four wintertime weather regimes over the North Atlantic domain is studied in this paper. Using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data, frequencies of occurrence of anticyclonic and cyclonic wave-breaking (AWB and CWB, respectively) events are computed. Each weather regime has its own characteristic pattern of RWB frequencies. CWB events are found to be most frequent for the Greenland anticyclone weather regime whereas AWB events occur more for the Atlantic ridge and the zonal regimes. Time-lagged composites show that the RWB events characterizing each weather regime occur more often during the formation of the regime rather than during its decay. This suggests a reinforcement of the weather regime by RWB. An exception is the blocking weather regime, which is destroyed by an increase of CWB events south of Greenland. Weather regime transitions are then studied using the low-frequency streamfunction tendency budget. Two types of precursors for the transitions have been identified. One is related to linear propagation of low-frequency transient eddies and the other to nonlinear interactions among the low- and high-frequency transient eddies. The latter has been related to the anomalous frequencies of occurrence of RWB. Two transitions are more precisely analyzed. The transition from blocking to Greenland anticyclone is triggered by a decrease of AWB events over Europe as well as a strong CWB event south of Greenland. The zonal to blocking transition presents evidence of two distinct precursors: one is a low-frequency wave train coming from the subtropical western Atlantic and the other, which occurs later, is characterized by a decrease of AWB and CWB events over western Europe that cannot continue to maintain the westerlies in that region.

This paper compares present-day simulations made with two state-of-the-art climate models: a conventional model specifically designed to represent the tropospheric climate, which has a poorly resolved middle atmosphere, and a configuration that is built on the same physics and numerical algorithms but represents realistically the middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere. The atmospheric behavior is found to be different between the two model configurations, and it is shown that the differences in the two simulations can be attributed to differences in the behavior of the zonal mean state of the stratosphere, where reflection of quasi-stationary resolved planetary waves from the lid of the low-top model is prominent; the more realistic physics in the high-top model is not relevant. It is also shown that downward propagation of zonal wind anomalies during weak stratospheric vortex events is substantially different in the two model configurations. These findings extend earlier results that a poorly resolved stratosphere can influence simulations throughout the troposphere.

The impact of a new cumulus parameterization developed in Part I of this paper on climatology in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is compared with that of the Arakawa–Schubert scheme. The parameterization is characterized by a vertically variable entrainment rate depending on the surrounding environment. Two kinds of formulations on entrainment rate are tested and produce similar results in the AGCM. The results show reduction of precipitation over land and increase over the sea, weakening of the southern side of the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the southeastern Pacific, and better representation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), all of which are consistent with observations. The population of cumulus congestus is significantly increased, thereby inducing additional heating in the lower troposphere. The diurnal variation over land shows that deep convection tends to be suppressed earlier because of the reduction of convective available potential energy and tropospheric humidity caused by the convective activity itself. An analysis of the daily outputs suggests that a better representation of the cumulus congestus and sensitivity of the scheme to tropospheric humidity are important for the realistic representation of the precipitation over the double ITCZ and SPCZ.

In simple GCMs, the time scale associated with the persistence of one particular phase of the model’s leading mode of variability can often be unrealistically large. In a particularly extreme example, the time scale in the Polvani–Kushner model is about an order of magnitude larger than the observed atmosphere. From the fluctuation–dissipation theorem, one implication of these simple models is that responses are exaggerated, since such setups are overly sensitive to any external forcing. Although the model’s equilibrium temperature is set up to represent perpetual Southern Hemisphere winter solstice, it is found that the tropospheric eddy-driven jet has a preference for two distinct regions: the subtropics and midlatitudes. Because of this bimodality, the jet persists in one region for thousands of days before “switching” to another. As a result, the time scale associated with the intrinsic variability is unrealistic. In this paper, the authors systematically vary the model’s tropospheric equilibrium temperature profile, one configuration being identical to that of Polvani and Kushner. Modest changes to the tropospheric state to either side of the parameter space removed the bimodality in the zonal-mean zonal jet’s spatial distribution and significantly reduced the time scale associated with the model’s internal mode. Consequently, the tropospheric response to the same stratospheric forcing is significantly weaker than in the Polvani and Kushner case.

This study explores the climatological annual cycle of temperature, circulation, and wave driving distributions in the tropical lower stratosphere as produced in a 50-yr simulation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulation is forced with a climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice condition. The present diagnoses verify the primary balances of the annual cycle in this region, consistent with lower temperatures, stronger residual circulation (upwelling and local meridional outflow), and nearby stronger wave driving for Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. An in-detail analysis on the wave driving further reveals that the stronger driving, occurring mostly in the northern tropics and subtropics, is contributed by northward and upward propagation (associated with meridional and vertical fluxes of zonal momentum, respectively) of equatorial Rossby waves forced by convective heating, and also by equatorward propagation of NH extratropical planetary and synoptic waves. The results are used to discuss implications about possible factors that may affect the different observations of the wave driving. The present framework and results will be extended to investigate ENSO-induced changes in this region during NH winter in a forthcoming paper.

This paper describes a series of 6-day large eddy simulations of a deep, sometimes drizzling stratocumulus-topped boundary layer based on forcings from the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) 2001 field campaign. The base simulation was found to reproduce the observed mean boundary layer properties quite well. The diurnal cycle of liquid water path was also well captured, although good agreement appears to result partially from compensating errors in the diurnal cycles of cloud base and cloud top due to overentrainment around midday. At all times of the day, entrainment is found to be proportional to the vertically integrated buoyancy flux. Model stratification matches observations well; turbulence profiles suggest that the boundary layer is always at least somewhat decoupled. Model drizzle appears to be too sensitive to liquid water path and subcloud evaporation appears to be too weak. Removing the diurnal cycle of subsidence had little effect on simulated liquid water path. Simulations with changed droplet concentration and drizzle susceptibility showed large liquid water path differences at night, but differences were quite small at midday. Droplet concentration also had a significant impact on entrainment, primarily through droplet sedimentation feedback rather than through drizzle processes.

In this paper, the effect of a simple convection scheme on the zonally averaged tropical general circulation is examined within an idealized moist GCM to obtain broad classifications of the influence of convection on the Tropics. This is accomplished with a simplified convection scheme in the style of Betts and Miller. The scheme is utilized in a moist GCM with simplified physical parameterizations (gray radiation, with zonally symmetric, slab mixed layer ocean boundary conditions). Comparisons are made with simulations without a convection scheme [i.e., with large-scale condensation (LSC) only], with the moist convective adjustment (MCA) parameterization, and with various formulations and parameter sets with a simplified Betts–Miller (SBM) scheme. With the control run using the SBM scheme, the Tropics become quieter and less dependent on horizontal resolution as compared with the LSC or MCA simulations. The Hadley circulation mass transport is significantly reduced with the SBM scheme, as is the ITCZ precipitation. An important factor determining this behavior is the parameterization of shallow convection: without shallow convection, the convection scheme is largely ineffective at preventing convection from occurring at the grid scale. The sensitivities to convection scheme parameters are also examined. The simulations are remarkably insensitive to the convective relaxation time, and only mildly sensitive to the relative humidity of the reference profile, provided significant large-scale condensation is not allowed to occur. The changes in the zonally averaged tropical circulation that occur in all the simulations are understood based on the convective criteria of the schemes and the gross moist stability of the atmosphere.

In this paper, a nonlinear dry model, forced by fixed radiative forcing alone, has been constructed to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. A procedure has been devised to iterate the radiative equilibrium temperature profile such that at the end of the iterations the model climate closely resembles the desired target climate. This iterative approach is applied to simulate the climatological storm tracks in January. It is found that, when the three-dimensional temperature distribution in the model resembles the observed distribution, the model storm tracks are much too weak. It is hypothesized that this is due to the fact that eddy development is suppressed in a dry atmosphere, owing to the lack of latent heat release in the ascending warm air. To obtain storm tracks with realistic amplitudes, the static stability of the target climate is reduced to simulate the enhancement in baroclinic energy conversion due to latent heat release. With this modification, the storm tracks in the model simulation closely resemble those observed except that the strength of the Atlantic storm track is slightly weaker than observed. The model, when used as a forecast model, also gives high-quality forecasts of the evolution of observed eddies. The iterative approach is applied to force the model to simulate climate anomalies associated with ENSO and the interannual variations of the winter Pacific jet stream/storm tracks. The results show that the model not only succeeds in simulating the climatology of storm tracks, but also produces realistic simulations of storm track anomalies when the model climate is forced to resemble observed climate anomalies. An extended run of the control experiment is conducted to generate monthly mean flow and storm track statistics. These statistics are used to build a linear statistical model relating storm track anomalies to mean flow anomalies. This model performs well when used to hindcast observed storm track anomalies based on observed mean flow anomalies, showing that the storm track/mean flow covariability in the model is realistic and that storm track distribution is not sensitive to the exact form of the applied forcings.

Recent observational analysis reveals the central role of three multicloud types, congestus, stratiform, and deep convective cumulus clouds, in the dynamics of large-scale convectively coupled Kelvin waves, westward-propagating two-day waves, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. A systematic model convective parameterization highlighting the dynamic role of the three cloud types is developed here through two baroclinic modes of vertical structure: a deep convective heating mode and a second mode with low-level heating and cooling corresponding respectively to congestus and stratiform clouds. A systematic moisture equation is developed where the lower troposphere moisture increases through detrainment of shallow cumulus clouds, evaporation of stratiform rain, and moisture convergence and decreases through deep convective precipitation. A nonlinear switch is developed that favors either deep or congestus convection depending on the relative dryness of the troposphere; in particular, a dry troposphere with large convective available potential energy (CAPE) has no deep convection and only congestus clouds. The properties of the multicloud model parameterization are tested by linearized analysis in a two-dimensional setup with no rotation with constant sea surface temperature. In particular, the present study reveals new mechanisms for the large-scale instability of moist gravity waves with features resembling observed convectively coupled Kelvin waves in realistic parameter regimes without any effect of wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE). A detailed dynamical analysis for the linear waves is given herein and idealized nonlinear numerical simulations are reported in a companion paper. A maximum congestus heating leads during the dry phase of the wave. It is followed by an increase of the boundary layer θe, that is, CAPE, and lower troposphere moistening that precondition the upper troposphere for the next deep convective episode. In turn, deep convection consumes CAPE and removes moisture, thus yielding the dry episode.

A new split-jet index is defined in this study, and composites based on this index show that the split-flow regime is characterized by a cold–warm–cold tripolar temperature anomaly in the South Pacific that extends equatorward from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes, while nonsplit flow occurs when the phase of the tripolar temperature anomaly is reversed. Analyses of the heat budget reveal that the temperature anomalies associated with the split/nonsplit flow are mainly forced by mean flow advection instead of local diabatic heating or convergence of eddy heat fluxes. Localized Eliassen–Palm (E–P) flux diagnostics suggest that the zonal wind anomalies are maintained by the eddy vorticity flux anomalies. These diagnostic results are confirmed by numerical experiments conducted using a stationary wave model forced by observed eddy forcings and diabatic heating anomalies. The model results show that the effects of the vorticity flux dominates over those of the heat flux, which tend to dampen the flow anomalies, and that tropical diabatic heating anomalies are not important in maintaining the split-/nonsplit-flow anomalies. The organization of high-frequency eddies by the low-frequency split/nonsplit jet is also studied. Two sets of experiments using a linear storm-track model initialized with random initial perturbations superposed upon the split- and nonsplit-jet basic state, respectively, have been conducted. Model results show that the storm-track anomalies that are organized by the split/nonsplit jet are consistent with observed storm-track anomalies, thus demonstrating that the low-frequency split/nonsplit jet acts to organize the high-frequency eddies. The results of this paper directly establish that there is a two-way reinforcement between eddies and mean flow anomalies in the low-frequency variability of the SH winter split jet.