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Fundamental scientific advances can take decades to translate into improvements in human health. Shortening this interval would increase the rate at which scientific discoveries lead to successful treatment of human disease. One way to accomplish this would be to identify which advances in knowledge are most likely to translate into clinical research. Toward that end, we built a machine learning system that detects whether a paper is likely to be cited by a future clinical trial or guideline. Despite the noisiness of citation dynamics, as little as 2 years of postpublication data yield accurate predictions about a paper's eventual citation by a clinical article (accuracy = 84%, F1 score = 0.56; compared to 19% accuracy by chance). We found that distinct knowledge flow trajectories are linked to papers that either succeed or fail to influence clinical research. Translational progress in biomedicine can therefore be assessed and predicted in real time based on information conveyed by the scientific community's early reaction to a paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the scientific literature, spin refers to reporting practices that distort the interpretation of results and mislead readers so that results are viewed in a more favourable light. The presence of spin in biomedical research can negatively impact the development of further studies, clinical practice, and health policies. This systematic review aims to explore the nature and prevalence of spin in the biomedical literature. We searched MEDLINE, PreMEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and hand searched reference lists for all reports that included the measurement of spin in the biomedical literature for at least 1 outcome. Two independent coders extracted data on the characteristics of reports and their included studies and all spin-related outcomes. Results were grouped inductively into themes by spin-related outcome and are presented as a narrative synthesis. We used meta-analyses to analyse the association of spin with industry sponsorship of research. We included 35 reports, which investigated spin in clinical trials, observational studies, diagnostic accuracy studies, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses. The nature of spin varied according to study design. The highest (but also greatest) variability in the prevalence of spin was present in trials. Some of the common practices used to spin results included detracting from statistically nonsignificant results and inappropriately using causal language. Source of funding was hypothesised by a few authors to be a factor associated with spin; however, results were inconclusive, possibly due to the heterogeneity of the included papers. Further research is needed to assess the impact of spin on readers’ decision-making. Editors and peer reviewers should be familiar with the prevalence and manifestations of spin in their area of research in order to ensure accurate interpretation and dissemination of research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of nonreplicable evidence has attracted considerable attention across biomedical and other sciences. This concern is accompanied by an increasing interest in reforming research incentives and practices. How to optimally perform these reforms is a scientific problem in itself, and economics has several scientific methods that can help evaluate research reforms. Here, we review these methods and show their potential. Prominent among them are mathematical modeling and laboratory experiments that constitute affordable ways to approximate the effects of policies with wide-ranging implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong genetic evidence supports an imbalance between production and clearance of amyloid β-protein (Aβ) in people with Alzheimer disease (AD). Microglia that are potentially involved in alternative mechanisms are actually integral to the amyloid cascade. Fluid biomarkers and brain imaging place accumulation of Aβ at the beginning of molecular and clinical changes in the disease. So why have clinical trials of anti-amyloid therapies not provided clear-cut benefits to patients with AD? Can anti-amyloid therapies robustly decrease Aβ in the human brain, and if so, could this lowering be too little, too late? These central questions in research on AD are being urgently addressed. Evidence suggests that an imbalance between production and clearance of amyloid-beta is an early, invariant feature of Alzheimer disease that drives its neuronal and glial pathology and precedes cognitive symptoms. So why are we still unable to slow cognitive decline with anti-amyloid therapies? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peer-reviewed journal publication is the main means for academic researchers in the life sciences to create a permanent public record of their work. These publications are also the de facto currency for career progress, with a strong link between journal brand recognition and perceived value. The current peer-review process can lead to long delays between submission and publication, with cycles of rejection, revision, and resubmission causing redundant peer review. This situation creates unique challenges for early career researchers (ECRs), who rely heavily on timely publication of their work to gain recognition for their efforts. Today, ECRs face a changing academic landscape, including the increased interdisciplinarity of life sciences research, expansion of the researcher population, and consequent shifts in employer and funding demands. The publication of preprints, publicly available scientific manuscripts posted on dedicated preprint servers prior to journal-managed peer review, can play a key role in addressing these ECR challenges. Preprinting benefits include rapid dissemination of academic work, open access, establishing priority or concurrence, receiving feedback, and facilitating collaborations. Although there is a growing appreciation for and adoption of preprints, a minority of all articles in life sciences and medicine are preprinted. The current low rate of preprint submissions in life sciences and ECR concerns regarding preprinting need to be addressed. We provide a perspective from an interdisciplinary group of ECRs on the value of preprints and advocate their wide adoption to advance knowledge and facilitate career development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the potential benefits of sequential designs, studies evaluating treatments or experimental manipulations in preclinical experimental biomedicine almost exclusively use classical block designs. Our aim with this article is to bring the existing methodology of group sequential designs to the attention of researchers in the preclinical field and to clearly illustrate its potential utility. Group sequential designs can offer higher efficiency than traditional methods and are increasingly used in clinical trials. Using simulation of data, we demonstrate that group sequential designs have the potential to improve the efficiency of experimental studies, even when sample sizes are very small, as is currently prevalent in preclinical experimental biomedicine. When simulating data with a large effect size of d = 1 and a sample size of n = 18 per group, sequential frequentist analysis consumes in the long run only around 80% of the planned number of experimental units. In larger trials (n = 36 per group), additional stopping rules for futility lead to the saving of resources of up to 30% compared to block designs. We argue that these savings should be invested to increase sample sizes and hence power, since the currently underpowered experiments in preclinical biomedicine are a major threat to the value and predictiveness in this research domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Failure in cancer drug development exacts heavy burdens on patients and research systems. To investigate inefficiencies and burdens in targeted drug development in cancer, we conducted a systematic review of all prelicensure trials for the anticancer drug, sorafenib (Bayer/Onyx Pharmaceuticals). We searched Embase and MEDLINE databases on October 14, 2014, for prelicensure clinical trials testing sorafenib against cancers. We measured risk by serious adverse event rates, benefit by objective response rates and survival, and trial success by prespecified primary endpoint attainment with acceptable toxicity. The first two clinically useful applications of sorafenib were discovered in the first 2 efficacy trials, after five drug-related deaths (4.6% of 108 total) and 93 total patient-years of involvement (2.4% of 3,928 total). Thereafter, sorafenib was tested in 26 indications and 67 drug combinations, leading to one additional licensure. Drug developers tested 5 indications in over 5 trials each, comprising 56 drug-related deaths (51.8% of 108 total) and 1,155 patient-years (29.4% of 3,928 total) of burden in unsuccessful attempts to discover utility against these malignancies. Overall, 32 Phase II trials (26% of Phase II activity) were duplicative, lacked appropriate follow-up, or were uninformative because of accrual failure, constituting 1,773 patients (15.6% of 11,355 total) participating in prelicensure sorafenib trials. The clinical utility of sorafenib was established early in development, with low burden on patients and resources. However, these early successes were followed by rapid and exhaustive testing against various malignancies and combination regimens, leading to excess patient burden. Our evaluation of sorafenib development suggests many opportunities for reducing costs and unnecessary patient burden in cancer drug development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Publication bias in animal research, its extent, its predictors, and its potential countermeasures are increasingly discussed. Recent reports and conferences highlight the potential strengths of animal study registries (ASRs) in this regard. Others have warned that prospective registration of animal studies could diminish creativity, add administrative burdens, and complicate intellectual property issues in translational research. A literature review and 21 international key-informant interviews were conducted and thematically analyzed to develop a comprehensive matrix of main- and subcategories for potential ASR-related strengths, weaknesses, facilitators, and barriers (SWFBs). We identified 130 potential SWFBs. All stakeholder groups agreed that ASRs could in various ways improve the quality and refinement of animal studies while allowing their number to be reduced, as well as supporting meta-research on animal studies. However, all stakeholder groups also highlighted the potential for theft of ideas, higher administrative burdens, and reduced creativity and serendipity in animal studies. Much more detailed reasoning was captured in the interviews than is currently found in the literature, providing a comprehensive account of the issues and arguments around ASRs. All stakeholder groups highlighted compelling potential strengths of ASRs. Although substantial weaknesses and implementation barriers were highlighted as well, different governance measures might help to minimize or even eliminate their impact. Such measures might include confidentiality time frames for accessing prospectively registered protocols, harmonized reporting requirements across ASRs, ethics reviews, lab notebooks, and journal submissions. The comprehensive information gathered in this study could help to guide a more evidence-based debate and to design pilot tests for ASRs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Olfactory ensheathing cell (OEC) transplantation is a candidate cellular treatment approach for human spinal cord injury (SCI) due to their unique regenerative potential and autologous origin. The objective of this study was, through a meta-epidemiologic approach, (i) to assess the efficacy of OEC transplantation on locomotor recovery after traumatic experimental SCI and (ii) to estimate the likelihood of reporting bias and/or missing data. A study protocol was finalized before data collection. Embedded into a systematic review and meta-analysis, we conducted a literature research of databases including PubMed, EMBASE, and ISI Web of Science from 1949/01 to 2014/10 with no language restrictions, screened by two independent investigators. Studies were included if they assessed neurobehavioral improvement after traumatic experimental SCI, administrated no combined interventions, and reported the number of animals in the treatment and control group. Individual effect sizes were pooled using a random effects model. Details regarding the study design were extracted and impact of these on locomotor outcome was assessed by meta-regression. Missing data (reporting bias) was determined by Egger regression and Funnel-plotting. The primary study outcome assessed was improvement in locomotor function at the final time point of measurement. We included 49 studies (62 experiments, 1,164 animals) in the final analysis. The overall improvement in locomotor function after OEC transplantation, measured using the Basso, Beattie, and Bresnahan (BBB) score, was 20.3% (95% CI 17.8–29.5). One missing study was imputed by trim and fill analysis, suggesting only slight publication bias and reducing the overall effect to a 19.2% improvement of locomotor activity. Dose-response ratio supports neurobiological plausibility. Studies were assessed using a 9-point item quality score, resulting in a median score of 5 (interquartile range [IQR] 3–5). In conclusion, OEC transplantation exerts considerable beneficial effects on neurobehavioral recovery after traumatic experimental SCI. Publication bias was minimal and affirms the translational potential of efficacy, but safety cannot be adequately assessed. The data justify OECs as a cellular substrate to develop and optimize minimally invasive and safe cellular transplantation paradigms for the lesioned spinal cord embedded into state-of-the-art Phase I/II clinical trial design studies for human SCI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the aftermath of the Ebola crisis, the global health community has a unique opportunity to reflect on the lessons learned and apply them to prepare the world for the next crisis. Part of that preparation will entail knowing, with greater precision, what the scale and scope of our specific global health challenges are and what resources are needed to address them. However, how can we know the magnitude of the challenge, and what resources are needed without knowing the current status of the world through accurate primary data? Once we know the current status, how can we decide on an intervention today with a predicted impact decades out if we cannot project into that future? Making a case for more investments will require not just better data generation and sharing but a whole new level of sophistication in our analytical capability—a fundamental shift in our thinking to set expectations to match the reality. In this current status of a distributed world, being transparent with our assumptions and specific with the case for investing in global health is a powerful approach to finding solutions to the problems that have plagued us for centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolutionary expansion of the neocortex in mammals has been linked to enlargement of the subventricular zone (SVZ) and increased proliferative capacity of basal progenitors (BPs), notably basal radial glia (bRG). The transcription factor Pax6 is known to be highly expressed in primate, but not mouse, BPs. Here, we demonstrate that sustaining Pax6 expression selectively in BP-genic apical radial glia (aRG) and their BP progeny of embryonic mouse neocortex suffices to induce primate-like progenitor behaviour. Specifically, we conditionally expressed Pax6 by in utero electroporation using a novel, Tis21–CreERT2 mouse line. This expression altered aRG cleavage plane orientation to promote bRG generation, increased cell-cycle re-entry of BPs, and ultimately increased upper-layer neuron production. Upper-layer neuron production was also increased in double-transgenic mouse embryos with sustained Pax6 expression in the neurogenic lineage. Strikingly, increased BPs existed not only in the SVZ but also in the intermediate zone of the neocortex of these double-transgenic mouse embryos. In mutant mouse embryos lacking functional Pax6, the proportion of bRG among BPs was reduced. Our data identify specific Pax6 effects in BPs and imply that sustaining this Pax6 function in BPs could be a key aspect of SVZ enlargement and, consequently, the evolutionary expansion of the neocortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Kimmelman and colleagues argue that the key to improving preclinical research lies in distinguishing between two different modes of research: exploratory vs. confirmatory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controversy surrounds the glycolipid iGb3. Our data show that humans do not express this lipid. This has important implications in natural killer T cell development, self-recognition, and transplantation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this primer, Malcolm Macleod outlines the use of meta-analysis to assess the validity of the outcome reported for preclinical studies and explores the reasons why Lisa Bero and colleagues find that industry-funded studies show smaller effect sizes than non-industry-funded studies do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]