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The cerebral vasculature has a complex and hierarchical network, ranging from vessels of a few millimeters to superficial cortical vessels with diameters of a few hundred micrometers, and to the microvasculature (arteriole/venule) and capillary beds in the cortex. In standard imaging techniques, it is difficult to segment all vessels in the network, especially in the case of the human brain. This study proposes a hybrid modeling approach that determines these networks by explicitly segmenting the large vessels from medical images and employing a novel vascular generation algorithm. The framework enables vasculatures to be generated at coarse and fine scales for individual arteries and veins with vascular subregions, following the personalized anatomy of the brain and macroscale vasculatures. In this study, the vascular structures of superficial cortical (pial) vessels before they penetrate the cortex are modeled as a mesoscale vasculature. The validity of the present approach is demonstrated through comparisons with partially observed data from existing measurements of the vessel distributions on the brain surface, pathway fractal features, and vascular territories of the major cerebral arteries. Additionally, this validation provides some biological insights: (i) vascular pathways may form to ensure a reasonable supply of blood to the local surface area; (ii) fractal features of vascular pathways are not sensitive to overall and local brain geometries; and (iii) whole pathways connecting the upstream and downstream entire-scale cerebral circulation are highly dependent on the local curvature of the cerebral sulci., Author summary Cerebral autoregulation in the complex vascular networks of the brain is an amazing achievement. We believe that numerical analysis of the cerebral blood circulation using an anatomically precise vascular model provides a powerful tool for evaluating the direct relationships between local- and global-scale blood flows. However, there is a lack of information about the overall vascular pathways in the human brain, preventing a monolithic model of the human cerebrovasculature from being established. This paper presents a multiscale model of human cerebrovasculature based on a hybrid approach that uses image-based geometries and a newly developed mathematical algorithm. One important argument of this paper is the validity of the cerebrovasculature represented in the model, which reflects anatomical features of major cerebral vasculatures and brain shape, and has strong similarities with available data for human superficial cortical vessels. Investigations of the reconstructed model allow us to derive some biological insights and associated hypotheses for the cerebral vasculature. The authors believe the present cerebrovascular model can be applied to numerical simulations of the entire-scale cerebral blood flow.

Type 2 diabetes leads to premature death and reduced quality of life for 8% of Americans. Nutrition management is critical to maintaining glycemic control, yet it is difficult to achieve due to the high individual differences in glycemic response to nutrition. Anticipating glycemic impact of different meals can be challenging not only for individuals with diabetes, but also for expert diabetes educators. Personalized computational models that can accurately forecast an impact of a given meal on an individual’s blood glucose levels can serve as the engine for a new generation of decision support tools for individuals with diabetes. However, to be useful in practice, these computational engines need to generate accurate forecasts based on limited datasets consistent with typical self-monitoring practices of individuals with type 2 diabetes. This paper uses three forecasting machines: (i) data assimilation, a technique borrowed from atmospheric physics and engineering that uses Bayesian modeling to infuse data with human knowledge represented in a mechanistic model, to generate real-time, personalized, adaptable glucose forecasts; (ii) model averaging of data assimilation output; and (iii) dynamical Gaussian process model regression. The proposed data assimilation machine, the primary focus of the paper, uses a modified dual unscented Kalman filter to estimate states and parameters, personalizing the mechanistic models. Model selection is used to make a personalized model selection for the individual and their measurement characteristics. The data assimilation forecasts are empirically evaluated against actual postprandial glucose measurements captured by individuals with type 2 diabetes, and against predictions generated by experienced diabetes educators after reviewing a set of historical nutritional records and glucose measurements for the same individual. The evaluation suggests that the data assimilation forecasts compare well with specific glucose measurements and match or exceed in accuracy expert forecasts. We conclude by examining ways to present predictions as forecast-derived range quantities and evaluate the comparative advantages of these ranges., Author summary Type 2 diabetes is a devastating disease that requires constant patient self-management of glucose, insulin, nutrition and exercise. Nevertheless, glucose and insulin dynamics are complicated, nonstationary, nonlinear, and individual-dependent, making self-management of diabetes a complex task. To help alleviate some of the difficulty for patients, we develop a method for personalized, real-time, glucose forecasting based on nutrition. Specifically, we create and evaluate the computational machinery based on both Gaussian process models and data assimilation that leverages the physiologic knowledge of two mechanistic models to produce a personalized, nutrition-based glucose forecast for individuals with type 2 diabetes in real time that is robust to sparse data and nonstationary patients. Our computational engine was conceived to be of potential use for diabetes self-management.

The sleep onset process (SOP) is a dynamic process correlated with a multitude of behavioral and physiological markers. A principled analysis of the SOP can serve as a foundation for answering questions of fundamental importance in basic neuroscience and sleep medicine. Unfortunately, current methods for analyzing the SOP fail to account for the overwhelming evidence that the wake/sleep transition is governed by continuous, dynamic physiological processes. Instead, current practices coarsely discretize sleep both in terms of state, where it is viewed as a binary (wake or sleep) process, and in time, where it is viewed as a single time point derived from subjectively scored stages in 30-second epochs, effectively eliminating SOP dynamics from the analysis. These methods also fail to integrate information from both behavioral and physiological data. It is thus imperative to resolve the mismatch between the physiological evidence and analysis methodologies. In this paper, we develop a statistically and physiologically principled dynamic framework and empirical SOP model, combining simultaneously-recorded physiological measurements with behavioral data from a novel breathing task requiring no arousing external sensory stimuli. We fit the model using data from healthy subjects, and estimate the instantaneous probability that a subject is awake during the SOP. The model successfully tracked physiological and behavioral dynamics for individual nights, and significantly outperformed the instantaneous transition models implicit in clinical definitions of sleep onset. Our framework also provides a principled means for cross-subject data alignment as a function of wake probability, allowing us to characterize and compare SOP dynamics across different populations. This analysis enabled us to quantitatively compare the EEG of subjects showing reduced alpha power with the remaining subjects at identical response probabilities. Thus, by incorporating both physiological and behavioral dynamics into our model framework, the dynamics of our analyses can finally match those observed during the SOP., Author Summary How can we tell when someone has fallen asleep? Understanding the way we fall asleep is an important problem in sleep medicine, since sleep disorders can disrupt the process of falling asleep. In the case of insomnia, subjects may fall asleep too slowly, whereas during sleep deprivation or narcolepsy, subjects fall asleep too quickly. Current methods for tracking the wake/sleep transition are time-consuming, subjective, and simplify the sleep onset process in a way that severely limits the accuracy, power, and scope of any resulting clinical metrics. In this paper, we describe a new physiologically principled method that dynamically combines information from brainwaves, muscle activity, and a novel minimally-disruptive behavioral task, to automatically create a continuous dynamic characterization of a person's state of wakefulness. We apply this method to a cohort of healthy subjects, successfully tracking the changes in wakefulness as the subjects fall asleep. This analysis reveals and statistically quantifies a subset of subjects who still respond to behavioral stimuli even though their brain would appear to be asleep by clinical measures. By developing an automated tool to precisely track the wake/sleep transition, we can better characterize and diagnose sleep disorders, and more precisely measure the effect of sleep medications.

Because local field potentials (LFPs) arise from multiple sources in different spatial locations, they do not easily reveal coordinated activity across neural populations on a trial-to-trial basis. As we show here, however, once disparate source signals are decoupled, their trial-to-trial fluctuations become more accessible, and cross-population correlations become more apparent. To decouple sources we introduce a general framework for estimation of current source densities (CSDs). In this framework, the set of LFPs result from noise being added to the transform of the CSD by a biophysical forward model, while the CSD is considered to be the sum of a zero-mean, stationary, spatiotemporal Gaussian process, having fast and slow components, and a mean function, which is the sum of multiple time-varying functions distributed across space, each varying across trials. We derived biophysical forward models relevant to the data we analyzed. In simulation studies this approach improved identification of source signals compared to existing CSD estimation methods. Using data recorded from primate auditory cortex, we analyzed trial-to-trial fluctuations in both steady-state and task-evoked signals. We found cortical layer-specific phase coupling between two probes and showed that the same analysis applied directly to LFPs did not recover these patterns. We also found task-evoked CSDs to be correlated across probes, at specific cortical depths. Using data from Neuropixels probes in mouse visual areas, we again found evidence for depth-specific phase coupling of primary visual cortex and lateromedial area based on the CSDs., Author summary To better understand information processing in the brain, it is important to identify situations in which neural activity is coordinated across populations of neurons, including those in distinct layers of the cortex. Bulk population activity results in voltage changes across extracellular electrodes, but in raw form such voltage recordings can be hard to analyze and interpret. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for locating the sources of currents that produce the measured voltages, and decomposing those currents into interpretable components. We use this flexible framework to develop statistical methods of analysis, and we show that our methodology can be more effective than existing techniques for current source localization. We apply the method to extracellular recordings in two contexts: primate auditory cortex in response to tone stimuli, and mouse visual cortex in response to visual stimuli. In both cases, we get results that are useful for understanding cross-population activity while being difficult or impossible to obtain using the raw voltage signals. We thereby demonstrate the broad utility of our approach for identifying coordinated neural activity based on extracellular voltage recordings.

Slow-wave sleep cortical brain activity, conformed by slow-oscillations and sleep spindles, plays a key role in memory consolidation. The increase of the power of the slow-wave events, obtained by auditory sensory stimulation, positively correlates with memory consolidation performance. However, little is known about the experimental protocol maximizing this effect, which could be induced by the power of slow-oscillation, the number of sleep spindles, or the timing of both events’ co-occurrence. Using a mean-field model of thalamocortical activity, we studied the effect of several stimulation protocols, varying the pulse shape, duration, amplitude, and frequency, as well as a target-phase using a closed-loop approach. We evaluated the effect of these parameters on slow-oscillations (SO) and sleep-spindles (SP), considering: (i) the power at the frequency bands of interest, (ii) the number of SO and SP, (iii) co-occurrences between SO and SP, and (iv) synchronization of SP with the up-peak of the SO. The first three targets are maximized using a decreasing ramp pulse with a pulse duration of 50 ms. Also, we observed a reduction in the number of SO when increasing the stimulus energy by rising its amplitude. To assess the target-phase parameter, we applied closed-loop stimulation at 0°, 45°, and 90° of the phase of the narrow-band filtered ongoing activity, at 0.85 Hz as central frequency. The 0° stimulation produces better results in the power and number of SO and SP than the rhythmic or random stimulation. On the other hand, stimulating at 45° or 90° change the timing distribution of spindles centers but with fewer co-occurrences than rhythmic and 0° phase. Finally, we propose the application of closed-loop stimulation at the rising zero-cross point using pulses with a decreasing ramp shape and 50 ms of duration for future experimental work., Author summary During the non-REM (NREM) phase of sleep, events that are known as slow oscillations (SO) and spindles (SP) can be detected by EEG. These events have been associated with the consolidation of declarative memories and learning. Thus, there is an ongoing interest in promoting them during sleep by non-invasive manipulations such as sensory stimulation. In this paper, we used a computational model of brain activity that generates SO and SP, to investigate which type of sensory stimulus –shape, amplitude, duration, periodicity– would be optimal for increasing the events’ frequency and their co-occurrence. We found that a decreasing ramp of 50 ms duration is the most effective. The effectiveness increases when the stimulus pulse is delivered in a closed-loop configuration triggering the pulse at a target phase of the ongoing SO activity. A desirable secondary effect is to promote SPs at the rising phase of the SO oscillation.

Short QT (SQT) syndrome is a genetic cardiac disorder characterized by an abbreviated QT interval of the patient’s electrocardiogram. The syndrome is associated with increased risk of arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death and can arise from a number of ion channel mutations. Cardiomyocytes derived from induced pluripotent stem cells generated from SQT patients (SQT hiPSC-CMs) provide promising platforms for testing pharmacological treatments directly in human cardiac cells exhibiting mutations specific for the syndrome. However, a difficulty is posed by the relative immaturity of hiPSC-CMs, with the possibility that drug effects observed in SQT hiPSC-CMs could be very different from the corresponding drug effect in vivo. In this paper, we apply a multistep computational procedure for translating measured drug effects from these cells to human QT response. This process first detects drug effects on individual ion channels based on measurements of SQT hiPSC-CMs and then uses these results to estimate the drug effects on ventricular action potentials and QT intervals of adult SQT patients. We find that the procedure is able to identify IC50 values in line with measured values for the four drugs quinidine, ivabradine, ajmaline and mexiletine. In addition, the predicted effect of quinidine on the adult QT interval is in good agreement with measured effects of quinidine for adult patients. Consequently, the computational procedure appears to be a useful tool for helping predicting adult drug responses from pure in vitro measurements of patient derived cell lines., Author summary A number of cardiac disorders originate from genetic mutations affecting the function of ion channels populating the membrane of cardiomyocytes. One example is short QT syndrome, associated with increased risk of arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Cardiomyocytes derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSC-CMs) provide a promising platform for testing potential pharmacological treatments for such disorders, as human cardiomyocytes exhibiting specific mutations can be generated and exposed to drugs in vitro. However, the electrophysiological properties of hiPSC-CMs differ significantly from those of adult native cardiomyocytes. Therefore, drug effects observed for hiPSC-CMs could possibly be very different from corresponding drug effects for adult cells in vivo. In this study, we apply a computational framework for translating drug effects observed for hiPSC-CMs derived from a short QT patient to drug effects for adult short QT cardiomyocytes. For one of the considered drugs, the effect on adult QT intervals has been measured and these measurements turn out to be in good agreement with the response estimated by the computational procedure. Thus, the computational framework shows promise for being a useful tool for predicting adult drug responses from measurements of hiPSC-CMs, allowing earlier identification of compounds to accurately treat cardiac diseases.

There has been considerable debate and concern as to whether there is a replication crisis in the scientific literature. A likely cause of poor replication is the multiple comparisons problem. An important way in which this problem can manifest in the M/EEG context is through post hoc tailoring of analysis windows (a.k.a. regions-of-interest, ROIs) to landmarks in the collected data. Post hoc tailoring of ROIs is used because it allows researchers to adapt to inter-experiment variability and discover novel differences that fall outside of windows defined by prior precedent, thereby reducing Type II errors. However, this approach can dramatically inflate Type I error rates. One way to avoid this problem is to tailor windows according to a contrast that is orthogonal (strictly parametrically orthogonal) to the contrast being tested. A key approach of this kind is to identify windows on a fully flattened average. On the basis of simulations, this approach has been argued to be safe for post hoc tailoring of analysis windows under many conditions. Here, we present further simulations and mathematical proofs to show exactly why the Fully Flattened Average approach is unbiased, providing a formal grounding to the approach, clarifying the limits of its applicability and resolving published misconceptions about the method. We also provide a statistical power analysis, which shows that, in specific contexts, the fully flattened average approach provides higher statistical power than Fieldtrip cluster inference. This suggests that the Fully Flattened Average approach will enable researchers to identify more effects from their data without incurring an inflation of the false positive rate., Author summary It is clear from recent replicability studies that the replication rate in psychology and cognitive neuroscience is not high. One reason for this is that the noise in high dimensional neuroimaging data sets can “look-like” signal. A classic manifestation would be selecting a region in the data volume where an effect is biggest and then specifically reporting results on that region. There is a key trade-off in the selection of such regions of interest: liberal selection will inflate false positive rates, but conservative selection (e.g. strictly on the basis of prior precedent in the literature) can reduce statistical power, causing real effects to be missed. We propose a means to reconcile these two possibilities, by which regions of interest can be tailored to the pattern in the collected data, while not inflating false-positive rates. This is based upon generating what we call the Flattened Average. Critically, we validate the correctness of this method both in (ground-truth) simulations and with formal mathematical proofs. Given the replication “crisis”, there may be no more important issue in psychology and cognitive neuroscience than improving the application of methods. This paper makes a valuable contribution to this improvement.

Gene expression atlases have transformed our understanding of the development, composition and function of human tissues. New technologies promise improved cellular or molecular resolution, and have led to the identification of new cell types, or better defined cell states. But as new technologies emerge, information derived on old platforms becomes obsolete. We demonstrate that it is possible to combine a large number of different profiling experiments summarised from dozens of laboratories and representing hundreds of donors, to create an integrated molecular map of human tissue. As an example, we combine 850 samples from 38 platforms to build an integrated atlas of human blood cells. We achieve robust and unbiased cell type clustering using a variance partitioning method, selecting genes with low platform bias relative to biological variation. Other than an initial rescaling, no other transformation to the primary data is applied through batch correction or renormalisation. Additional data, including single-cell datasets, can be projected for comparison, classification and annotation. The resulting atlas provides a multi-scaled approach to visualise and analyse the relationships between sets of genes and blood cell lineages, including the maturation and activation of leukocytes in vivo and in vitro. In allowing for data integration across hundreds of studies, we address a key reproduciblity challenge which is faced by any new technology. This allows us to draw on the deep phenotypes and functional annotations that accompany traditional profiling methods, and provide important context to the high cellular resolution of single cell profiling. Here, we have implemented the blood atlas in the open access Stemformatics.org platform, drawing on its extensive collection of curated transcriptome data. The method is simple, scalable and amenable for rapid deployment in other biological systems or computational workflows., Author summary Combining data from many different studies is an attractive way of capturing new aspects of the biology being studied. Biological variance attributable to cell type, cellular niche, origin, disease status or environmental stimuli is the basis of most small-n transcriptome studies. In aggregation, these promise to capture emergent dimensions of a biology that is not possible to view from any individual study. However biological signal is easily swamped by technical artifact, especially when data is generated on platforms with profoundly different data structures. This is the case when comparing microarray data to RNAseq, or RNAseq to single cell profiling. Consequently, transcriptome atlases are generally comprised from a small number of donors/conditions surveyed using one technology platform. In this paper we present a simple and scalable data integration method that is platform agnostic. We provide a proof-of-principle by constructing an atlas of blood cells that combines many data sets measured on different platforms, and that in combination, recapitulates the known blood hierarchy. The atlas provides a reference to compare external samples to, allowing users to benchmark new derivation or isolation methods. It also provides a reference point for new data types, such as the classification of single cells. The approach allows for FAIR data reuse and robust identification of molecular signatures across multiple studies and experimental conditions.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection results in millions of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths each year. Variations in the adaptive and innate immune response appear to be associated with RSV severity. To investigate the host response to RSV infection in infants, we performed a systems-level study of RSV pathophysiology, incorporating high-throughput measurements of the peripheral innate and adaptive immune systems and the airway epithelium and microbiota. We implemented a novel multi-omic data integration method based on multilayered principal component analysis, penalized regression, and feature weight back-propagation, which enabled us to identify cellular pathways associated with RSV severity. In both airway and immune cells, we found an association between RSV severity and activation of pathways controlling Th17 and acute phase response signaling, as well as inhibition of B cell receptor signaling. Dysregulation of both the humoral and mucosal response to RSV may play a critical role in determining illness severity., Author summary This paper presents a novel approach to understanding the localized molecular responses to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and the system-level correlates of clinical outcomes. To do this, we developed a novel statistical method able to integrate high dimensional molecular data characterizing the host airway microbota and immune and nasal gene expression. We show that this integrative approach facilitates superior performance in estimating clinical outcome as opposed to any single data type. Using this approach, we identified both cell type-specific and shared biomarkers and regulatory pathways associated with RSV severity. Specifically, we identified an association between RSV severity, activation of pathways controlling Th17, and inhibition of B cell receptor signaling, which were present in both the site of infection airway and in peripheral immune cells. These results can guide future efforts to identify biomarkers for identifying or predicting illness severity following infant RSV infection. They may also be useful as biomarkers to inform the efficacy of future interventions (e.g., therapies) or preventative measures to suppress the rate of severe disease (e.g., vaccines).

Variants of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model of Kermack & McKendrick (1927) enjoy wide application in epidemiology, offering simple yet powerful inferential and predictive tools in the study of diverse infectious diseases across human, animal and plant populations. Direct transmission models (DTM) are a subset of these that treat the processes of disease transmission as comprising a series of discrete instantaneous events. Infections transmitted indirectly by persistent environmental pathogens, however, are examples where a DTM description might fail and are perhaps better described by models that comprise explicit environmental transmission routes, so-called environmental transmission models (ETM). In this paper we discuss the stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) DTM and susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-pathogen (SEIR-P) ETM and we show that the former is the timescale separation limit of the latter, with ETM host-disease dynamics increasingly resembling those of a DTM when the pathogen’s characteristic timescale is shortened, relative to that of the host population. Using graphical posterior predictive checks (GPPC), we investigate the validity of the SEIR model when fitted to simulated SEIR-P host infection and removal times. Such analyses demonstrate how, in many cases, the SEIR model is robust to departure from direct transmission. Finally, we present a case study of white spot disease (WSD) in penaeid shrimp with rates of environmental transmission and pathogen decay (SEIR-P model parameters) estimated using published results of experiments. Using SEIR and SEIR-P simulations of a hypothetical WSD outbreak management scenario, we demonstrate how relative shortening of the pathogen timescale comes about in practice. With atttempts to remove diseased shrimp from the population every 24h, we see SEIR and SEIR-P model outputs closely conincide. However, when removals are 6-hourly, the two models’ mean outputs diverge, with distinct predictions of outbreak size and duration., Author summary Mathematical models of the spread and progression of communicable disease in populations are important tools in efforts to prevent and control outbreaks. A common class of disease models assume that infection is transmitted directly from infectious to susceptible individuals when they are in close proximity—so called direct transmission models. These are used widely and have proven invaluable as simplified descriptions of a wide array of infectious diseases in diverse populations. However, many pathogens spread through indirect, environmental routes of transmission, for example via contact with contaminated water sources in the case of cholera, or inhalation of infectious airborne droplets for respiratory infections, such as Covid-19. We show that direct transmission models work well for such pathogens with short environmental lifetimes and where hosts shed pathogens into the environment at high rates. This means that we do not require information about environmental pathogen levels to understand the behaviour of outbreaks caused by these pathogens. When shedding rates are also low, e.g., with macroparasitic infections, or when variable environmental factors play a role in transmissibility, then explicit modelling of both the pathogen and environmental transmission will provide a more accurate picture than a direct transmission approximation.

Until date, several machine learning approaches have been proposed for the dynamic modeling of temporal omics data. Although they have yielded impressive results in terms of model accuracy and predictive ability, most of these applications are based on “Black-box” algorithms and more interpretable models have been claimed by the research community. The recent eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) revolution offers a solution for this issue, were rule-based approaches are highly suitable for explanatory purposes. The further integration of the data mining process along with functional-annotation and pathway analyses is an additional way towards more explanatory and biologically soundness models. In this paper, we present a novel rule-based XAI strategy (including pre-processing, knowledge-extraction and functional validation) for finding biologically relevant sequential patterns from longitudinal human gene expression data (GED). To illustrate the performance of our pipeline, we work on in vivo temporal GED collected within the course of a long-term dietary intervention in 57 subjects with obesity (GSE77962). As validation populations, we employ three independent datasets following the same experimental design. As a result, we validate primarily extracted gene patterns and prove the goodness of our strategy for the mining of biologically relevant gene-gene temporal relations. Our whole pipeline has been gathered under open-source software and could be easily extended to other human temporal GED applications., Author summary Biological processes in humans are not single-gene based mechanisms, but complex systems controlled by regulatory interactions between thousands of genes. Within these gene regulatory networks, time-delay is a common phenomenon and genes interact each other within a four-dimension space. Hence, to fully understand or to control biological processes we need to unravel the principles of gene-gene temporal interactions. Until date, several approaches based on Artificial Intelligence methods have tried to address this issue. Nevertheless, the research community has claimed for more interpretable and biologically meaningful models. Particularly, scientists claim for methods able to infer gene-gene temporal interactions that could be later validated with real-life experiments at the lab. The recent revolution known as “eXplainable Artificial Intelligence” offers a solution for this issue, where a range of highly interpretable and explicable models has become available. Many of these methods could be applied to temporal gene expression data in order to decipher mentioned temporal gene-gene relationships in humans. Here, we propose and validate a new pipeline analysis including an eXplainable artificial intelligence method for the identification of comprehensible gene-gene temporal relationships from human intervention studies. Our method has been validated in six datasets from obesity research (consisting of low calorie diets interventions), where it was able to extract meaningful gene-gene temporal interactions with relevance the etiology of the disease. The application of our pipeline to other type of human temporal gene profiles would greatly expand our knowledge for complex biological processes, with a special interest for drug clinical trials, in which identified gene-gene regulatory interactions could reveal new therapeutic targets.

Phenotypic plasticity is a vital strategy for plants to deal with changing conditions by inducing phenotypes favourable in different environments. Understanding how natural selection acts on variation in phenotypic plasticity in plants is therefore a central question in ecology, but is often ignored in modelling studies. Here we present a new modelling approach that allows for the analysis of selection for variation in phenotypic plasticity as a response strategy. We assess selection for shade avoidance strategies of Arabidopsis thaliana in response to future neighbour shading signalled through a decrease in red:far-red (R:FR) ratio. For this, we used a spatially explicit 3D virtual plant model that simulates individual Arabidopsis plants competing for light in different planting densities. Plant structure and growth were determined by the organ-specific interactions with the light environment created by the vegetation structure itself. Shade avoidance plastic responses were defined by a plastic response curve relating petiole elongation and lamina growth to R:FR perceived locally. Different plasticity strategies were represented by different shapes of the response curve that expressed different levels of R:FR sensitivity. Our analyses show that the shape of the selected shade avoidance strategy varies with planting density. At higher planting densities, more sensitive response curves are selected for than at lower densities. In addition, the balance between lamina and petiole responses influences the sensitivity of the response curves selected for. Combining computational virtual plant modelling with a game theoretical analysis represents a new step towards analysing how natural selection could have acted upon variation in shade avoidance as a response strategy, which can be linked to genetic variation and underlying physiological processes., Author summary Plants are able to respond to changes in the environment. Particularly, plants can show different structural traits (e.g. stem height and leaf size) in different planting densities. These trait changes are the result of so-called plastic responses that can be induced by changes in the light spectrum. Although a great part of the physiological processes underlying these plastic responses have been identified, it remains unclear how these plastic responses, and variations therein, can be the result of selection. In this paper we analyse selection on different plastic responses within different dynamic competitive environments. We use a 3D virtual plant model that simulates realistic plant growth based on light absorption, photosynthesis and specific light signals that induce changes in leaf growth. The 3D model simulated various competitive vegetation stands consisting of plants with different plastic responses at different planting densities. We conclude that selection in different densities results in different plastic responses. We advocate that our modelling approach allows for analyses related to selection on plastic responses itself, instead of on specific trait values in different environments, and is therefore an important new step forward in understanding the role of plastic responses for plant performance.

Information processing can leave distinct footprints on the statistics of neural spiking. For example, efficient coding minimizes the statistical dependencies on the spiking history, while temporal integration of information may require the maintenance of information over different timescales. To investigate these footprints, we developed a novel approach to quantify history dependence within the spiking of a single neuron, using the mutual information between the entire past and current spiking. This measure captures how much past information is necessary to predict current spiking. In contrast, classical time-lagged measures of temporal dependence like the autocorrelation capture how long—potentially redundant—past information can still be read out. Strikingly, we find for model neurons that our method disentangles the strength and timescale of history dependence, whereas the two are mixed in classical approaches. When applying the method to experimental data, which are necessarily of limited size, a reliable estimation of mutual information is only possible for a coarse temporal binning of past spiking, a so-called past embedding. To still account for the vastly different spiking statistics and potentially long history dependence of living neurons, we developed an embedding-optimization approach that does not only vary the number and size, but also an exponential stretching of past bins. For extra-cellular spike recordings, we found that the strength and timescale of history dependence indeed can vary independently across experimental preparations. While hippocampus indicated strong and long history dependence, in visual cortex it was weak and short, while in vitro the history dependence was strong but short. This work enables an information-theoretic characterization of history dependence in recorded spike trains, which captures a footprint of information processing that is beyond time-lagged measures of temporal dependence. To facilitate the application of the method, we provide practical guidelines and a toolbox., Author summary Even with exciting advances in recording techniques of neural spiking activity, experiments only provide a comparably short glimpse into the activity of only a tiny subset of all neurons. How can we learn from these experiments about the organization of information processing in the brain? To that end, we exploit that different properties of information processing leave distinct footprints on the firing statistics of individual spiking neurons. In our work, we focus on a particular statistical footprint: We quantify how much a single neuron’s spiking depends on its own preceding activity, which we call history dependence. By quantifying history dependence in neural spike recordings, one can, in turn, infer some of the properties of information processing. Because recording lengths are limited in practice, a direct estimation of history dependence from experiments is challenging. The embedding optimization approach that we present in this paper aims at extracting a maximum of history dependence within the limits set by a reliable estimation. The approach is highly adaptive and thereby enables a meaningful comparison of history dependence between neurons with vastly different spiking statistics, which we exemplify on a diversity of spike recordings. In conjunction with recent, highly parallel spike recording techniques, the approach could yield valuable insights on how hierarchical processing is organized in the brain.

In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian adaptive dual controller (ADC) for autonomously programming deep brain stimulation devices. We evaluated the Bayesian ADC’s performance in the context of reducing beta power in a computational model of Parkinson’s disease, in which it was tasked with finding the set of stimulation parameters which optimally reduced beta power as fast as possible. Here, the Bayesian ADC has dual goals: (a) to minimize beta power by exploiting the best parameters found so far, and (b) to explore the space to find better parameters, thus allowing for better control in the future. The Bayesian ADC is composed of two parts: an inner parameterized feedback stimulator and an outer parameter adjustment loop. The inner loop operates on a short time scale, delivering stimulus based upon the phase and power of the beta oscillation. The outer loop operates on a long time scale, observing the effects of the stimulation parameters and using Bayesian optimization to intelligently select new parameters to minimize the beta power. We show that the Bayesian ADC can efficiently optimize stimulation parameters, and is superior to other optimization algorithms. The Bayesian ADC provides a robust and general framework for tuning stimulation parameters, can be adapted to use any feedback signal, and is applicable across diseases and stimulator designs., Author summary Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an effective therapy for treating motor symptoms of Parkinson’s disease. However, the clinical success of DBS relies on selecting stimulation parameters that both relieve symptoms while avoiding side effects. Currently, DBS devices are programmed using a laborious trial-and-error process, requiring multiple clinic visits over the course of months. As DBS leads and algorithms become more complex, it will become impossible to select optimal DBS parameters manually. There is a clear need for an intelligent, automated approach to parameter tuning. We present a novel Bayesian adaptive dual controller (ADC), which can autonomously tune stimulation parameters. It uses a feedback signal measured from the patient to quantify the efficacy of a set of stimulation parameters, and uses this information to intelligently find the parameters which work best for each individual patient. The Bayesian ADC has the potential to improve DBS efficacy and reduce clinic visits by efficiently finding the best stimulation parameters.

Calcium imaging has been widely used for measuring spiking activities of neurons. When using calcium imaging, we need to extract summarized information from the raw movie beforehand. Recent studies have used matrix deconvolution for this preprocessing. However, such an approach can neither directly estimate the generative mechanism of spike trains nor use stimulus information that has a strong influence on neural activities. Here, we propose a new deconvolution method for calcium imaging using marked point processes. We consider that the observed movie is generated from a probabilistic model with marked point processes as hidden variables, and we calculate the posterior of these variables using a variational inference approach. Our method can simultaneously estimate various kinds of information, such as cell shape, spike occurrence time, and tuning curve. We apply our method to simulated and experimental data to verify its performance., Author summary Calcium imaging is a promising technique that enables the observation of the activities of large neural populations as a movie. Since the measured movie is a large-scale dataset containing a considerable amount of information, we need to apply a preprocessing procedure to extract crucial information from the raw movie for the analysis that follows. Recent studies have adopted matrix decomposition to decompose the observed movie into the product of two matrices: one consisting of cell shapes and the other consisting of calcium florescent time series. This approach can estimate cell locations and activities simultaneously; however, it cannot express some aspects of neural population codes. For instance, this approach cannot incorporate other covariates that may affect the neural population activities. In this paper, we propose a new statistical model for calcium imaging movies and an estimation procedure for this model. To express the random occurrence of spikes occurring in the movie, our model adopts a marked point process, which is used to express sequences of events to which certain characteristic values are attached. Our model can estimate cell shapes, spikes, and tuning curves of cells directly without any additional preprocessing procedure, and it also improves the estimation accuracy compared to the conventional approach.

Visual neurons respond to static images with specific dynamics: neuronal responses sum sub-additively over time, reduce in amplitude with repeated or sustained stimuli (neuronal adaptation), and are slower at low stimulus contrast. Here, we propose a simple model that predicts these seemingly disparate response patterns observed in a diverse set of measurements–intracranial electrodes in patients, fMRI, and macaque single unit spiking. The model takes a time-varying contrast time course of a stimulus as input, and produces predicted neuronal dynamics as output. Model computation consists of linear filtering, expansive exponentiation, and a divisive gain control. The gain control signal relates to but is slower than the linear signal, and this delay is critical in giving rise to predictions matched to the observed dynamics. Our model is simpler than previously proposed related models, and fitting the model to intracranial EEG data uncovers two regularities across human visual field maps: estimated linear filters (temporal receptive fields) systematically differ across and within visual field maps, and later areas exhibit more rapid and substantial gain control. The model is further generalizable to account for dynamics of contrast-dependent spike rates in macaque V1, and amplitudes of fMRI BOLD in human V1., Author summary This paper contributes to modeling and understanding the neuronal dynamics of visual cortex in four ways. First, we proposed a model that describes stimulus-driven neuronal dynamics in a simple and intuitive way. Second, we applied the model to intracranial EEG data and found regularities of response dynamics across and within human visual field maps. Third, the model was generalizable across different ways of measuring brain activity, allowing us to potentially link the sources underlying diverse measurements. Fourth, we comprehensively summarized existing models of neuronal dynamics, and identified effective components that give rise to accurate prediction.

Synchronization of neural oscillations as a mechanism of brain function is attracting increasing attention. Neural oscillation is a rhythmic neural activity that can be easily observed by noninvasive electroencephalography (EEG). Neural oscillations show the same frequency and cross-frequency synchronization for various cognitive and perceptual functions. However, it is unclear how this neural synchronization is achieved by a dynamical system. If neural oscillations are weakly coupled oscillators, the dynamics of neural synchronization can be described theoretically using a phase oscillator model. We propose an estimation method to identify the phase oscillator model from real data of cross-frequency synchronized activities. The proposed method can estimate the coupling function governing the properties of synchronization. Furthermore, we examine the reliability of the proposed method using time-series data obtained from numerical simulation and an electronic circuit experiment, and show that our method can estimate the coupling function correctly. Finally, we estimate the coupling function between EEG oscillation and the speech sound envelope, and discuss the validity of these results., Author summary In this paper, we propose an estimation method to identify a dynamical system from rhythmic time-series data. Rhythmic activities have been observed frequently and are synchronized in various fields, and synchronization is an important topic in nonlinear science. It is well known that such synchronization can be described theoretically by a phase oscillator model under the condition that the rhythmic activities can be considered weakly coupled limit-cycle oscillators. Based on this theory, we propose a method to identify the interaction between rhythmic activities as a network of phase oscillators. A practical advantage of the proposed method is that, without detailed modeling, we can extract the phase oscillator model directly from time-series data. For the above theoretical and practical reasons, this method can be applied to rhythmic data from a wide range of fields. In this study, we have focused on human brain activities in which electroencephalography (EEG) signals are often synchronized with each other and with external periodic stimuli. We demonstrate that the proposed method can successfully estimate the interaction between EEG activity and speech rhythm. Consequently, the proposed method can reveal the role of neural synchronization.

Budding yeast, which undergoes polarized growth during budding and mating, has been a useful model system to study cell polarization. Bud sites are selected differently in haploid and diploid yeast cells: haploid cells bud in an axial manner, while diploid cells bud in a bipolar manner. While previous studies have been focused on the molecular details of the bud site selection and polarity establishment, not much is known about how different budding patterns give rise to different functions at the population level. In this paper, we develop a two-dimensional agent-based model to study budding yeast colonies with cell-type specific biological processes, such as budding, mating, mating type switch, consumption of nutrients, and cell death. The model demonstrates that the axial budding pattern enhances mating probability at an early stage and the bipolar budding pattern improves colony development under nutrient limitation. Our results suggest that the frequency of mating type switch might control the trade-off between diploidization and inbreeding. The effect of cellular aging is also studied through our model. Based on the simulations, colonies initiated by an aged haploid cell show declined mating probability at an early stage and recover as the rejuvenated offsprings become the majority. Colonies initiated with aged diploid cells do not show disadvantage in colony expansion possibly due to the fact that young cells contribute the most to colony expansion., Author summary Budding yeast is a model organism in understanding fundamental aspects of eukaryotic cells, such as cell polarization and cell aging. Previously, extensive research has focused on the molecular mechanisms of biological processes in yeast, but many questions regarding yeast budding remain unsolved. For example, how do different budding patterns affect yeast colony growth? How does declined spatial order due to aging impact the colony at the population level? To address these questions, we developed a computational agent-based model, which incorporates key biological processes, the effect of aging, as well as cell-environment interaction. We performed and analyzed a large number of simulations for a variety of situations, and obtained insightful results. We found that axial budding pattern enhances the percentage of diploid cells at early stage and bipolar budding pattern improves colony development under nutrient limitation; the frequency of mating type switch might control the trade-off between diploidization and inbreeding; aging affects the percentage of diploid cells in colonies initiated by a single haploid cell, but does not have much influence in the expansion of colonies initiated by diploid cells. The framework of the model can be extended to study other important systems, such as tissue with stem cell lineage.

In pharmaceutical sciences, a crucial step of the drug discovery process is the identification of drug-target interactions. However, only a small portion of the drug-target interactions have been experimentally validated, as the experimental validation is laborious and costly. To improve the drug discovery efficiency, there is a great need for the development of accurate computational approaches that can predict potential drug-target interactions to direct the experimental verification. In this paper, we propose a novel drug-target interaction prediction algorithm, namely neighborhood regularized logistic matrix factorization (NRLMF). Specifically, the proposed NRLMF method focuses on modeling the probability that a drug would interact with a target by logistic matrix factorization, where the properties of drugs and targets are represented by drug-specific and target-specific latent vectors, respectively. Moreover, NRLMF assigns higher importance levels to positive observations (i.e., the observed interacting drug-target pairs) than negative observations (i.e., the unknown pairs). Because the positive observations are already experimentally verified, they are usually more trustworthy. Furthermore, the local structure of the drug-target interaction data has also been exploited via neighborhood regularization to achieve better prediction accuracy. We conducted extensive experiments over four benchmark datasets, and NRLMF demonstrated its effectiveness compared with five state-of-the-art approaches., Author Summary This work introduces a computational approach, namely neighborhood regularized logistic matrix factorization (NRLMF), to predicting potential interactions between drugs and targets. The novelty of NRLMF lies in integrating logistic matrix factorization with neighborhood regularization for drug-target interaction prediction. In NRLMF, we model the interaction probability for each drug-target pair using logistic matrix factorization. As the observed interacting drug-target pairs are experimentally verified, they are more trustworthy than the unknown pairs. We propose to assign higher importance levels to interaction pairs and lower importance levels to unknown pairs. In addition, we further improve the prediction accuracy by neighborhood regularization, which considers the neighborhood influences from most similar drugs and most similar targets. To evaluate the performance of NRLMF, we conducted extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets. The experimental results demonstrated that NRLMF usually outperformed five state-of-the-art methods under three different cross-validation settings, in terms of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR). In addition, we confirmed the practical prediction ability of NRLMF by mapping with the latest version of four online biological databases, including ChEMBL, DrugBank, KEGG, and Matador.

A goal of many sensorimotor studies is to quantify the stimulus-behavioral response relation for specific organisms and specific sensory stimuli. This is especially important to do in the context of painful stimuli since most animals in these studies cannot easily communicate to us their perceived levels of such noxious stimuli. Thus progress on studies of nociception and pain-like responses in animal models depends crucially on our ability to quantitatively and objectively infer the sensed levels of these stimuli from animal behaviors. Here we develop a quantitative model to infer the perceived level of heat stimulus from the stereotyped escape response of individual nematodes Caenorhabditis elegans stimulated by an IR laser. The model provides a method for quantification of analgesic-like effects of chemical stimuli or genetic mutations in C. elegans. We test ibuprofen-treated worms and a TRPV (transient receptor potential) mutant, and we show that the perception of heat stimuli for the ibuprofen treated worms is lower than the wild-type. At the same time, our model shows that the mutant changes the worm’s behavior beyond affecting the thermal sensory system. Finally, we determine the stimulus level that best distinguishes the analgesic-like effects and the minimum number of worms that allow for a statistically significant identification of these effects., Author Summary A doctor assesses pain by asking her patient to “rate your pain on the scale of 1 to 10.” She may then prescribe some drugs and later ask the question again to see if they worked. New drugs are often developed using animal models, but we cannot ask an animal, especially a small invertebrate animal, to rate, similarly, the strength of its perceived noxious stimulus. In this paper, we successfully develop computational tools that read the “body language” of a roundworm C. elegans to estimate the strength of the heat stimulus that it experiences. Unlike previous attempts that have focused on ad hoc selected components of the overall behavior, our approach is based on quantifying the complete time series of the escape behavior, which we show to be captured by a behavioral “template” that scales in response to the stimulus strength. The existence of this template allows us to solve one of the hard questions in pain research: disambiguating analgesic-like effects of drugs or genetic perturbations from their other effects on animal behavior.